دوره 11، شماره 39 - ( 1-1399 )
سال11 شماره 39 صفحات 80-45 |
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Jalili Kamju S P, Khochiani R. Application of the Bankruptcy Theory and Conflicting Claims on Water Resources Allocation of Zayanderud. jemr 2020; 11 (39) :45-80
URL: http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1826-fa.html
URL: http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1826-fa.html
جلیلی کامجو سید پرویز، خوچیانی رامین. کاربرد تئوری ورشکستگی و تقاضاهای ناسازگار در حل مناقشه تخصیص منابع آب زاینده‌رود. تحقیقات مدلسازی اقتصادی. 1399; 11 (39) :45-80
1- دانشگاه آیت ا.. بروجردی (ره) ، parviz.jalili@gmail.com
2- دانشگاه آیت ا... بروجردی (ره)
2- دانشگاه آیت ا... بروجردی (ره)
چکیده: (6051 مشاهده)
حل تقابل آب و تخصیص بهینه منابع مشترک آب، مهم‌ترین خدمت نظریه بازی‌های با رویکرد مشارکتی به اقتصاد آب است. حوضه آب‌ریز زاینده‌رود مهم‌ترین حوضه مورد مناقشه در بین چند استان هم‌جوار در حوضه درجه یک فلات مرکزی ایران است. هدف این پژوهش استفاده از نظریه بازی‌های با کاربرد رویکرد ورشستگی (تقاضاهای ناسازگار) به منظور تخصیص بهینه منابع آب سطحی و زیرزمینی در حوضه آب‌ریز زاینده‌رود با درنظر گرفتن حق‌آبه زاینده‌رود (بخش گردشگری)، لحاظ آب انتقالی به یزد و کاشان و آب منتهی به تالاب گاوخونی در کنار تقاضای سه بخش شرب، صنعت-معدن و کشاورزی است. به منظور برآورد حق‌آبه طبیعی رودخانه و بخش گردشگری از روش مونتانا (تنانت) تحت سه سناریوی مختلف تنانت ضعیف، قابل قبول و بهینه در دوره 1361-1395 استفاده شد، که به ترتیب 7/77، 5/130 و 5/466 میلیون مترمکعب در سال برآورد شد. تئوری تقاضاهای ناسازگار در سناریوهای مختلف برای حق‌آبه زاینده‌رود ( بخش گردشگری) نشان داد در هر سه سناریو بر اساس پنج قانون مختلف در تئوری ورشکستگی شامل قانون نسبی PRO، قانون محدودیت برابر پاداش‌ها CEA، قانون محدودیت برابر زیان‌ها CEL، تالمود TAL و قانون ورود تصادفی RA، روش CEA مطلوب‌ترین روش برای 5 بخش (به جز بخش کشاورزی) بود. به منظور انتخاب روش عادلانه‌تر، از شاخص ضریب جینی و منحنی لورنز استفاده شد که نشان داد قانون CEA نسبت به سایر روش‌ها توزیع با نابرابری کمتری را دارد. به این ترتیب به دلیل شکاف فزاینده تقاضای در حوضه زاینده‌رود پیشنهاد شد تخصیص آب بر اساس قوانین تئوری ورشکستگی و تقاضاهای ناسازگار انجام یابد.
نوع مطالعه: كاربردي |
موضوع مقاله:
انرژی، منابع و محیط زیست
دریافت: 1398/1/28 | پذیرش: 1399/1/22 | انتشار: 1399/4/31
دریافت: 1398/1/28 | پذیرش: 1399/1/22 | انتشار: 1399/4/31
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