دوره 11، شماره 40 - ( 4-1399 )
سال11 شماره 40 صفحات 122-99 |
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Maddah M, Sinaeyan M. The Empirical Analysis of Money Laundering Trend in Iran (by Using PLS-SEM Method ). jemr 2020; 11 (40) :99-122
URL: http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2046-fa.html
URL: http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2046-fa.html
مداح مجید، سینائیان مهلا. تحلیل تجربی روند پولشویی در ایران (رهیافت روش معادلات ساختاری مبتنی بر حداقل مربعات جزیی). تحقیقات مدلسازی اقتصادی. 1399; 11 (40) :99-122
مجید مداح* 
1، مهلا سینائیان2
1، مهلا سینائیان2
1- دانشگاه سمنان ، majid.maddah@semnan.ac.ir
2- دانشگاه سمنان
2- دانشگاه سمنان
چکیده: (4206 مشاهده)
پولشویی از طریق تضعیف اعتبار نهادهای مالی، اعتماد سرمایه¬گذاران به بازارهای مالی را کاهش می¬دهد و بی¬ثباتی سیاسی و انحراف در تخصیص منابع را تشدید می¬کند. در پولشویی منابع غیرقانونی به طور مخفیانه و دور از نظارت¬های رسمی وارد اقتصاد قانونی می¬شود که بر این اساس ماهیت پنهان دارد. این مقاله تلاش دارد تا با بررسی ابعاد مختلف پولشویی، تغییرات آن را در اقتصاد ایران در چارچوب ادبیات متغیرهای پنهان با استفاده از روش مدل¬سازی ساختاری با رویکرد حداقل مربعات جزیی (PLS-SEM) طی سال¬های 1360 تا 1396 به لحاظ تجربی بررسی کند. نتایج حاصل از مقاله نشان می¬دهد جرایم سرقت و قاچاق مواد مخدر اثر مثبت و معنی¬داری بر روند پولشویی دارند. همچنین شرایط اقتصادی می¬تواند انگیزه افراد را در ورود به فعالیت¬های غیر قانونی تحریک کند. علاوه بر آن رشد پولشویی همراه با کاهش تولید ناخالص داخلی و افزایش حجم پول نقد در جریان است که در نتیجه آن ثبات اقتصادی تضعیف می¬شود. طبق نتایج این تحقیق پولشویی در ایران روند صعودی دارد که در صورت رشد جرایم به ویژه قاچاق مواد مخدر، این روند ادامه خواهد یافت که بر بخش حقیقی اقتصاد اثر منفی دارد.
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