Volume 10, Issue 38 (12-2019)
jemr 2019, 10(38): 95-128 |
Back to browse issues page
Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:
Goli Y, Delangizan S, Falahati A. Estimating the Efficient Shocks' Share in Iran's Economic Growth Fluctuations (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach). jemr 2019; 10 (38) :95-128
URL: http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1773-en.html
URL: http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-1773-en.html
1- Razi university , younes.goli67@gmail.com
2- Razi university
2- Razi university
Abstract: (3560 Views)
In economic, the degree of intervention of policymakers in creation of economic stability and the response to economic fluctuations is one of the most important problems. The higher the share of efficient shocks in economic fluctuation, the lower the degree of policy response. This study evaluates the contribution of efficient shocks in creating of economic fluctuations and also estimates potential and efficient economic growth in Iran by using the seasonal data over 1988-2015 and the Dynamic Stochastic General equilibrium Approach. The results of DSGE estimation show that the high share of economic fluctuations in Iran is inefficient and monetary shocks accounted over 70 percent of economic fluctuation. Also, the estimation of potential and effective growth over 1988-2015 implies that efficient growth is smoother than potential and real growth. The sustainability of the effect of technology shock on production indicates the importance of paying attention to the growth of technology and productivity in the Iranian economy. Therefore, focusing on long-term growth has more benefits than focusing on business cycles.
Type of Study: Applicable |
Subject:
رشد و توسعه و سیاست های کلان
Received: 2019/05/5 | Accepted: 2020/02/29 | Published: 2020/04/23
Received: 2019/05/5 | Accepted: 2020/02/29 | Published: 2020/04/23
References
1. Adolfson, M., Laséen, S., Lindé, J., & Svensson, L. E. (2011). Optimal Monetary Policy in an Operational Medium‐Sized DSGE Model. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 43(7), 1287-1331. [DOI:10.1111/j.1538-4616.2011.00426.x]
2. Afshari, Z., mahmmodi, N., boostani, R. (2014). Evaluating the Neoclassical Growth Model in Explaining Iranian Business Cycles. Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran, 3(9), 189-204 (in Persian).
3. Alkhareif, R.& N. Alsadoun. (2016). Estimating the Output Gap for Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, 165: 1-18.
4. Arabmzar, A., Golmoradi, H. (2010). An Investigation of Structural Shocks on Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Iran. Journal of Economics and Modeling, 1(1), 41-80. (in Persian).
5. bagheri pormehr S, mohamadi T. (2016). Surveying Degree of Price Rigidity in Iranian Economy (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model). Journal of Economic Modeling Research. 6 (22) :33-59 (in Persian). [DOI:10.18869/acadpub.jemr.6.22.33]
6. Bahrami, J., ghorashi, N.(2011). Analyzing the Monetary Policy in Iran Economy by Using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model. Economic Modeling, 5(13), 1-22. (in Persian).
7. Behpour, S., Samadi, A., Hadian, E., Sadraei Javaheri, A. (2018). A Study on the Change in the Share of Factors Influencing on the Volatility of GDP in Iran: An Application of DSGE Model. Journal of Macroeconomics, 13(25), 13-37. (in Persian).
8. Di Pietro, M., & Saltari, E. (2018). Economic Fluctuations in the US and Euro Area: Quantifying the Contribution of Technical Change. Southern Economic Journal, 85(1), 203-216. [DOI:10.1002/soej.12271]
9. Erceg, C. J., Henderson, D. W., & Levin, A. T. (2000). Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts. Journal of monetary Economics, 46(2), 281-313. [DOI:10.1016/S0304-3932(00)00028-3]
10. Farzana, S., A. Haider, S. Jabeen & M. Husnain. (2015). Estimating Potential Output for Pakistan: A Production Function Approach. British Journal of Economics, Management & Trade, 9(4): 1-13. [DOI:10.9734/BJEMT/2015/19814]
11. Fridman, M. (1968). The role of monetary policy. American economic review, 58(1), 1-17.
12. Fueki, T. Fukunaga, I. Ichiue, H and Shirota , T (2010), Measuring Potential Growth with an Estimated DSGE Model of Japan's Economy, International Journal of Central Banking , 12: 1-32.
13. Furlanetto, F., Ravazzolo, F., & Sarferaz, S. (2019). Identification of financial factors in economic fluctuations. The Economic Journal, 129(617), 311-337. [DOI:10.1111/ecoj.12520]
14. Gholizade A A, Noroozonejad M. (2019). Dynamics of Housing Prices and Economic Fluctuations in Iran with the Approach of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE). Journal of Economic Modeling Research. 9 (36) :37-74 [DOI:10.29252/jemr.9.36.37]
15. Gortz, C and Tsoukalas, J (2017), News And Financial Intermediation In Aggregate Fluctuations, the review of Economics and Statistics, 99(3): 514-530. [DOI:10.1162/REST_a_00612]
16. Ibrahim, M., & Alagidede, P. (2017). Financial sector development, economic volatility and shocks in sub-Saharan Africa. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 484, 66-81. [DOI:10.1016/j.physa.2017.04.142]
17. Jalaee, S., Shakibaee, A., Nejati, M., Ansari Nasab, M. (2017). An Investigation of Economic Factors Affecting Output Gap in the Iranian Economy. Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, 3(4), 77-100. (in Persian).
18. Juillard, M., Kameník, O., Kumhof, M., & Laxton, D. (2006). Measures of potential output from an estimated dsge model of the united states. CNB.
19. Justiniano, A., & Primiceri, G. (2008). Potential and natural output. Manuscript, Northwestern University.
20. Justiniano, A., Primiceri, G. E., & Tambalotti, A. (2010). Investment shocks and business cycles. Journal of Monetary Economics, 57(2), 132-145. [DOI:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2009.12.008]
21. Kenny, S. (2019). The effect of real shocks on business cycle fluctuations. A Bayesian panel vector autoregressive approach. Munich Personal RePEc Archive, No. 95716.
22. Khorsandi, M., Eslamloueyan, K., Zonnoor, H. (2013). Estimating the Output Gap with Emphasis on Human Capital in Iran. The Journal of Economic Policy, 1(2), 59-98. (in Persian).
23. Lucas Jr, R. E. (1988). On the mechanics of economic development. Journal of monetary economics, 22(1), 3-42. [DOI:10.1016/0304-3932(88)90168-7]
24. Lucas Jr, R. E. (2003). Macroeconomic priorities. American economic review, 93(1), 1-14. [DOI:10.1257/000282803321455133]
25. Mehrara, M., & Oskoui, K. N. (2007). The sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in oil exporting countries: A comparative study. Economic Modelling, 24(3), 365-379. [DOI:10.1016/j.econmod.2006.08.005]
26. Prescott, E. C (1996), Interview with Edward C. Prescott, the region, September.
27. Prescott, E. C. (1986, September). Theory ahead of business-cycle measurement. In Carnegie-Rochester conference series on public policy (Vol. 25, pp. 11-44). North-Holland. [DOI:10.1016/0167-2231(86)90035-7]
28. Prieto, E., Eickmeier, S., & Marcellino, M. (2016). Time Variation in Macro-Financial Linkages. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 31(7), 1215-1233. [DOI:10.1002/jae.2499]
29. Rodríguez, G., Vega, P. V., & Bardalez, P. C. (2018). Driving economic fluctuations in Peru: the role of the terms of trade. Empirical Economics, 55(3), 1089-1119. [DOI:10.1007/s00181-017-1318-2]
30. Romer, D., & Chow, C. (1996). Advanced macroeconomic theory. Mcgraw-hill.
31. Sala, L., Söderström, U., & Trigari, A. (2010). Potential Output, the Output Gap, and the Labor Wedge.
32. Snowdon, B., & Vane, H. R. (2002). An encyclopedia of macroeconomics. Edward Elgar Publishing. [DOI:10.4337/9781781951156]
33. Taghipour, A., manzoor, D. (2016). Analysis of Monetary and Budgetary Shocks implications in the Iranian Economy Using a DSGE Model. Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi), 51(4), 977-1001. (in Persian).
Send email to the article author
| Rights and permissions | |
 | This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. |
