Journal of Economic Modeling Research

Modeling the Effect of Economic Sanctions on the Demand for Meat Consumption Basket of Urban Households

Mahdi Pendar

Due to the position of meat products in the food pyramid and its importance in maintaining people's health and that economic sanctions can have a significant effect on meat consumption through the channel of increasing production costs and increasing the price of meat, the purpose of this research is to investigate the existence of failure There is a structure in the preferences of the meat consumption basket of urban households using the parametric approach and the switching regression framework developed by Ohtani and Katayama (1986) in the period of 2001-2013. The results show a structural failure (change) in preferences suddenly in 2017 and after the withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA. The results show that after the withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA, the price of chicken meat has decreased and the price of fish has increased, so that chicken meat has changed from an attractive product to an inelastic product. This result shows that consumers have become dependent on chicken meat and are willing to pay more to buy it. In such a situation, it is important to have adequate and optimal monitoring of the price of chicken meat, because people are forced to pay any price for chicken meat, and the changes of this product can cause the consumption basket of urban households to fluctuate greatly. Also, the estimation of income elasticity shows that chicken meat has changed from a necessary commodity to a luxury commodity after the sanctions. Therefore, to support consumers, it will be the right decision to use income tools and policies that lead to increasing the liquidity of urban households.

Predicting the Effects of Fiscal Policies on Greenhouse Emissions (CO2) in Iran: Bayesian Vector Auto regression (BVAR) Approach

Mohammad Taher Ahmadi Shadmehri

The main purpose of this study is to predicting the effects of fiscal policies on greenhouse emissions in Iran from 1991 to 2021. To achieve this, bayesian model averaging (BMA) and Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) approaches were employed. The results indicate that out of 14 fiscal policy variables, the top five models with the highest posterior probabilities were identified using the aforementioned methods. The most effective models included variables such as financial asset acquisitions, oil revenues, corporate taxes, wealth taxes, current expenditures, and other revenues. Subsequently, the impact of these variables on CO2 emissions was analyzed over 10 periods using the BVAR method. The impulse response function results revealed that shocks to the financial asset acquisitions, oil revenues, wealth taxes, current expenditures, and other revenues had positive effects on CO2 emissions, with the most significant impact stemming from shocks to financial asset acquisitions. Conversely, only shocks to the corporate taxes demonstrated a negative effect. Additionally, the variance decomposition of CO2 emission forecast errors indicated that the oil revenues and wealth taxes played the most significant roles in explaining forecast errors, with their contributions increasing during intermediate periods.

The effect of an increase in minimum wage on the contribution, pension expenses and the cash balance of Iranian Social Security Organization

Abbas khandan

Sustainability of pension funds indicating the balance between contributions and pension expenses, is one of the fundamental principles governing social security systems. Among the things that affect the contributions and pension expenses of the Iran’s Social Security Organization (ISSO)’s fund is the minimum wage which according to Article 41 of Iran’s labor and social security laws, is determined annually by the Iran’s supreme labor council and, every year, becomes a controversial and disputed issue between labor :union:s, employers and the public authorities. An increase in minimum wage have effects on both the received contributions and pension expenses and, as a result, its final effect on the cash balance of ISSO’s fund has been arguable. Considering the issue importance, this paper studies the effect of an increase in minimum wage on ISSO’s contributions, pension expenses and its cash balance during 1961 to 2022 using an econometric time series model of autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL). The results show that a 10% increase in the minimum wage will increase ISSO’s contributions by 25.6% and its pension expenses by 23%. Therefore, comparing the effects, it can be stated that the ISSO’s cash balance would be increased by 2.6% as a results of a 10% increase in minimum wage. To test the result, one more time, the association between an increase in minimum wage and the ISSO’s excess resources was investigated separately. The results once again confirm that the ISSO cash balance would be improved by 3.3% in association with a 10% increase in minimum wage. In this study, it was also shown that the population of contributors, the population of pensioners, the population support ratio, GDP and dummy variables of sanction and Iran-Iraq war have been influential as well.

The effect of inflation on economic growth in macroeconomic uncertainty

Azam Ahmadyan

Today, the importance of the effectiveness of economic growth on inflation is not hidden from anyone. The literature expresses different views about the effect of inflation on economic growth. Some studies have emphasized the existence of a positive relationship, some studies have emphasized the existence of a negative relationship, and some have considered the effect of inflation on economic growth to be neutral. In recent decades, Iranian economy has faced inflationary conditions that can affect economic growth. Macroeconomics uncertainties can also intensify the negative effect of inflation on economic growth. Considering the importance of the issue, in this article, the vulnerability of economic growth to inflation in the conditions of macroeconomic uncertainties is investigated. For this purpose, using time series data during 1370-1401, the dynamics of the effect of inflation on economic growth has been investigated, using the autoregression method with a distribution with an interval. Since inflation at different levels and thresholds can have a different effect on economic growth, the threshold effect of inflation has been investigated using the threshold regression method. Considering the different effect of inflation in macroeconomic uncertainty, the effect of inflation at the level and threshold on economic growth has been investigated once considering macroeconomic uncertainty and another time without considering macroeconomic uncertainty. E-GARCH method has been used to extract macroeconomic uncertainty. In the models examined in the article, uncertainty of exchange rate, uncertainty of liquidity and uncertainty of stock price index were considered. The findings indicate, inflation at the level without macroeconomic uncertainty has a positive effect on economic growth, but taking macroeconomic uncertainty into account, inflation at the level has a negative effect on economic growth. Also, considering macroeconomic uncertainty indicates that the negative effect of inflation on economic growth is intensified.

The influence of central bank independence on Gini Coefficient, liquidity growth and economic instability in Iran

Amir Gholami

Creating the necessary conditions for growth and development is one of the goals of any economic system, which requires the application of correct economic policies, the identification and application of the components that affect growth, and as a result, the establishment of economic stability that leads to economic development and maintaining interests. It becomes national. Therefore, in order to achieve economic growth and to be on the path of economic development, it is necessary to consider the factors affecting economic growth. Among them, we can point out the control of inflation (growth of liquidity) and the reduction of income inequality. In this regard, examining the impact of monetary policies on these variables (stability, liquidity and inequality) can be effective and useful. Monetary policies are among the most important macroeconomic policies, which are among the main duties of central banks. Therefore, in this research, we investigate the influence of central bank independence on liquidity growth, unequal distribution of income and economic stability using time series data from 1981 to 2014. In the upcoming study, three sections were considered. The first part is the relationship between central bank independence and liquidity growth, the second part is the relationship between central bank independence and income distribution, and the third part is the relationship between central bank independence and economic stability. In each section, the influence of the economic indicators of the central bank's independence on the desired dependent variables was also examined. The calculated index for central bank independence in this study is a composite index. The results of the hypotheses test showed that the independence of the central bank has a positive and significant relationship with the growth of liquidity in Iran and a negative and significant relationship with the unequal distribution of income during the period under review and finally a positive and significant relationship with economic stability in Iran.

Optimal Allocation of Gas Resources Using Energy Models( A Case Study of Ahvaz Oil Field)

ali asghar esmailnia ketabi

Study and modeling for appropriate planning and policy-making in the energy sector to ensure energy security (security of supply for consumers of crude oil and natural gas;security of demand for exporting economic enterprises) and consequently ensuring maximum intergenerational benefits is of great importance. Iran is a producer and exporter of oil and gas; and in such countries, the economy generally relies on oil and gas revenues. Naturally, it is necessary to maximize the profit from oil and gas revenues through planning for optimal production from oil and gas fields as a necessity. In this study, prioritizing the optimal solutions for allocating natural gas to various sectors including construction, industry (petrochemicals), transportation (in the form of compressed natural gas), power generation, export, injection into oil wells to increase recovery, relying on modeling the production chain, supply, natural gas injection in the oil field, and the added value from the injection, has been investigated by LEAP software, taking into account real and operational constraints, taking into account the South Pars gas source