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Showing 6 results for Simulation

Dr Esfandiar Jahangard, Nilofar Hosiani,
Volume 4, Issue 11 (3-2013)

The magnitude of economic growth depends on the growth and investment in key economic sectors. Thus, one important goal of policy makers and economic planners in any society is to identify key economic sectors. This paper aims at identifying these sectors in Iranian economy using stochastic input-output analysis. Stochastic analysis is used to investigate how the inherent imprecision affects the concomitant key sector analysis in case of utilizing aggregated data. The analysis is based on Iranian input-output table for the year 2001, using distance estimation and Monte Carlo simulation. Results of the non-stochastic approach indicate that among 25 economic sectors in aggregated input-output table, six sector-groups are the key sectors while, in non-aggregated input-output table with 99 sectors, 13 sector-groups can be identified as key sectors. Finally the suggestion is that to identify key economic sectors the non-aggregated input-output table should be used.
Ali Hosein Samadi, Shahram Eydizadeh,
Volume 4, Issue 14 (12-2013)

This study aims to evaluate the status of Iranian gas industry and to formulate appropriate policies in order to attain the objectives of Iran’s Vision 2025. A dynamic model including exploration, production, consumption and demand sub-systems is designed based on the system dynamics approach and is simulated for the period 2010-2025. In this model, factors affecting natural gas exploration, demand and consumption as well as production, export and import of all other fuels in energy supply are identified and their dynamic interactions are investigated. The results of solving the basic model indicated that except for a 75 % share of gas consumption, none of Vision’s objectives would be attained, if current policies were followed. Accordingly, new policies are formulated and included in the model in the form of some scenarios. The results of simulating such scenarios suggest that other than coordinating the subdivisions of gas industry, production and exploration rates should be increased and significant technological exploration and production advances should be made in order to attain the objectives considered in the gas industry. Furthermore, clean energies such as water, wind and solar resources should be utilized increasingly in order to supply a part of domestic consumption. The results of model validation tests indicate the validity of the model as acceptable.
Mahdi Ghaemiasl, Mostafa Salimifar, Mohammad Hossien Mahdavi Adeli, Mostafa Rajabi Mashhadi,
Volume 6, Issue 22 (12-2015)

One of the greatest challenges of renewable resources is unpredictable nature of these resources. Nevertheless use of fossil-renewable integrated hybrid system, which uses some renewable resources rather than a single source, for the supply of power, is the most affordable and the most reliable method. In this study by use of analytical programming approach and 2012 base year statistics, production system of Khorasan Regional Electricity CO. has been simulated and the maximum renewable electricity potential, entered into power generation system. Results show that among all of solar, wind, biomass, geothermal and hydro, only solar power have enough capacity and potential to be substituted with fossil power. The comprehensive system, which uses all renewable potential power capacity, causes 6.38 TWh reduction in fossil power, 4.28 million tons emission, 10-fold increase in spot-hourly price and 21% reduction in grid stability which shows necessity of using stabilizer and storage equipment in the hybrid integrated production system and Technical and financial support from the government to reduce the cost of solar equipment.

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Volume 8, Issue 28 (7-2017)

Addressing the economic components of the fiscal regime of the Iran Petroleum Contract (IPC), in this article the fiscal simulation of the contract has been developed. Most important fiscal parameters of the contract are: Capex and Opex, Cost of Money, remuneration fee, amortization period and R-factor. Technical information of the Darquin field (phase 3) has been used as a case study for this paper. The results show some merits and demerits. The most important output of the model is that the contractor's take is so small (about 3% in the discounted manner and the IRR of Contractor can’t exceed some amount (14.6%) by price increasing, showing the service nature of the contract. According to the results, remuneration fee is the most significant factor which can affect the IRR and take of the contractor, so its level should be determined carefully regarding the fiscal simulation model. Another issue which should be paid attention to is the determination of R-factor and remuneration fee slides. The fiscal regime is regressive in the levels of price lower than $50 and is progressive in the higher levels, but the profitability of the contractor in the higher levels is constant in absolute terms which can reduce the attractiveness of the contract. One of the major defects of the contract is the Gold-plating issue which is raised because of using R-Factor mechanism. Using the saving index can mitigate the problem notably.

Javid Bahrami, Davoud Daneshjafari, Mohamad Sayadi, Pegah Pasha,
Volume 9, Issue 33 (10-2018)

Oil Revenue Management (ORM) has always been one of the key challenges facing the oil rich developing countries. In this regard, the main objective of this paper is to provide a dynamic macroeconometric model adapted to the state of the Iranian economy. Also, the assessment of the dynamics of the National Development Fund (NDF) and its impact on macroeconomic variables are discussed. The results of the study, based on the out of sample and the four scenarios (the existence and absence of the NDF, the change in the share of the fund from oil revenues, the Fund's floating share of oil revenues, and the scenario of the fund exposure with temporary and permanent oil shocks) indicate that, The creation of a NDF in the short term will not improve the situation of macroeconomic variables, and the positive effects of such a policy will appear in the long run. The reason for this the private sector investment was time consuming and, consequently, the increase in non-oil sector production in the economy. Nevertheless, it is possible in the short term that by designing foreign exchange or budgetary policies, the initial downturn in the level of economic activity may be reduced by the stablization of the fund. Moreover, as in the mechanism of the fund, the floating share of oil revenues (adopting an anticyclical policy in allocating oil revenues to the fund) will help to reduce the negative consequences of shocks in the short run, because the lowest initial inflationary pressures, fluctuations in exchange rates and the net debt of the public sector occurs under this scenario.

Mrs Narges Ghasemian, Proffesor Hossein Raghfar, Engineer Faramarz Ekhteraei,
Volume 12, Issue 43 (3-2021)

Drugs as a strategic and subsidized commodity and an urgent need for patients have been constantly of particular importance, specially, in the health-care system of a society. On the other hand, one of the parameters concerning the assessment of the family welfare is the amount spent for satisfaction of divergent needs. The more a family spends on essential necessities such as food, housing, clothing and higher education, the less is expected to be devoted to health care. Concerning drugs, the demand for different drugs may vary depending on the patients' attitudes, the type of illnesses and their income elasticity. The objective of the present research is to investigate the demand for orphan drugs for refractory diseases regarding various income groups in Iran applying Agent-based Models (ABMs). In this research, the behavior dynamics of the orphan drugs applicants and the diversity of their demands in miscellaneous price scenarios resulting from inflation and fluctuations in the exchange rate have been scrutinized in accordance with ABM. To this end, one thousand family applicants for orphan drugs, extracted from Iran's statistics center, were categorized in five different income ventiles. Their reactions towards the increase of the price of the aforementioned drugs are predicted based on Net Logo simulation software. The results indicate that the average of price elasticity of demand for generic and branded drugs has been -0.39 and -0.05 percent, respectively; similarly, the demand for these two drug groups has been decreased by the same amount. In the lowest income ventile as the price of generic and branded orphan drugs deceases, for the lowest income ventile families, the allocated expenses for these drugs has been decreased by 3.3 percent and 31.85 percent, respectively. The main reason for the aforementioned problem is assigned to the low budget of the patients' family and its allocation to essential necessities of life such as food and housing. The severity of the cost reduction in branded drugs is due to the fact that it can be replaced by generic drugs.

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