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Showing 10 results for sadeghi

Dr Hosein Sadeghih, Keyvan Shahab Lavasani, Mahmood Baghjari,
Volume 1, Issue 1 (12-2010)

  The intensive effects of “targeted subsidies plan” and its implementation and that of the price of energy carriers on macroeconomic variables such as private consumption and Gross National Product, therefore increase in the price of energy carriers and the relevant issues have been debating and discussing for a long time. Regarding the significance of the issue and also its effect on the economic and society welfare, further and more comprehensive investigations into this subject seems to be necessary. This paper is presented with a review of previous studies and then explores the effect of the increase in the price of energy carriers on the three important macroeconomic variables, i.e. GDP growth, inflation and private consumption in the context of a structural vector regression to model SVAR. The results show that due to implementation of this plan, the economic growth and the private consumption decrease but the inflation will increase. The results showed that, the energy price index shocks the most influence on inflation variation are explained so that voters, in the medium term and long-term changes and about 40 percent of fluctuations in inflation, energy price shocks is described. Other findings of this study is that, in the long-term energy price shocks indices respectively about 20 and 11 percent of the fluctuations in private consumption and gross domestic product by the explained. It should be noted that all results, without considering the effects of resource redistribution payment received from government subsidies are.

Dr Mahdi Sadeghi Shahdani, Musa Shahbazy Ghiasi, Vahid Bighdeli,
Volume 2, Issue 6 (3-2012)

  Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) models using the capacities of private sector have provided a background to supply public services and infrastructures in different ways. Transportation sector as a fundamental sector of economic development in Iran needs public-private participation models. For this purpose a theoretical literature of public-private partnerships has been reviewed and then the barriers to the development of such partnerships in transportation sector of Iran economic, infrastructure, legal and social areas were investigated. Finally with AHP, TOPSIS and SAW methods of Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM)the barriers were prioritized and their relative importance was analyzed. The results of three methods indicate that factor of financial markets limitations and availability of financing is the main barrier to the development of public-private partnerships. Although there is a little different among the results of TOPSIS in rating some final factors compared to other two methods, by calculating rank correlation coefficient (Spearman) the null hypothesis(the lack of correlation between the results) was rejected and with 99.75 percent probability all of the result are similar. Ranking results of barriers to the development of public-private partner ships in this study can be taken into consideration in policymaking and determining the requirement to use these models in the fields of transportation and other infrastructural areas.

Dr Mehdi Sadeghi Shahdani, Dr Kazem Chavoshi, Hossein Mohseni,
Volume 3, Issue 9 (12-2012)

  In recent years, financial economists have increasingly recognized the interaction between market structure and capital structure or financial decisions of the firms.

  This research analyzes the relationship between market structure (power) and the capital structure (leverage ratio) of listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) based on static and dynamic approach. In this research we study a balanced panel dataset of 101 firm-year observations from 2006 to2010 and test significant relationship for testing hypothesis.

  First we use pooled regression to determinant the relationship between capital structure, market structure (Tobin's Q) and five control variables including profitability, size, collateral value of assets, growth rate of assets and uniqueness of assets. After employing chow and hausman test, we selected fixed effect panel data model. Also we employed GMM method to have more efficient result and also to cope with the unobservable firm-specific characteristics and endogeneity problems.

  Our results suggest that the relationship between leverage and market structure is non-linear (cubic) due to the complex interaction of market conditions, agency problems and bankruptcy costs. The study finds a negative relationship between capital structure and profitability and also positive relation between capital structure and the size. So, profitable companies tend to use internal financing such as retained earnings and issuing new shares instead of debt financing. Also big companies prefer to use more leverage due to desirable conditions for getting loans. Our evidence shows that Iranian listed companies are generally more subject to agency cost theory (limited liability effect) and tax shield theory. Finally, the system-GMM results reveal that managers of Iranian firms tend to adjust dynamically their leverage ratios over time.


Dr Hossein Sadeghi, Dr Ali Akbar Afzalian, Dr Mahmood Haghani, Hossein Sohrabi Vafa,
Volume 3, Issue 10 (3-2013)

  Storing the electrical energy in large scale is impossible. So, it is necessary to identify the factors affecting the electricity demand. Researchers have used different methods to forecast the future demand of electricity, among them intelligent methods and fuzzy based methods are more popular. Since ANFIS structure is based on researcher’s experience about phenomenon, the created structure may not have the best result. Therefore, we used PSO-ANFIS structure.

  In this paper long term electricity demand is forecasted until the year 2025 by hybrid PSO-ANFIS algorithm. The results confirm the high power of the Adaptive Neural based Fuzzy Inference System in forecasting the electricity demand. Results also indicate that the forecasted electricity demand will be 401 billion KWh in 2025. The prediction performance of the proposed technique is more accurate than the ARIMA model.

Dr Ahmad Ameli, Dr Mehdi Sadeghi Shahdani ,
Volume 3, Issue 11 (6-2013)

This paper presents an AHP and FLP model for the allocation of energy subsidies to different economic sectors. To do so, we defined a group of socio-economic criteria that may affected by the allocation of energy subsidies. These criteria are: economic growth, energy intensity, labor intensity, inflation, social cost of air pollutions and distribution of energy subsidy among socio-economic levels. According to calculated weights, we determined the priority of the above mentioned criteria. Also, according to the optimum overall rank of economic sectors, the commercial sector has the highest rank followed by industrial, agricultural and household and transportation sectors. After determining the final coefficients of AHP approach, we determined the allocation of energy subsidies using linier programming approach. We also considerd the change in technology and consumption patterns of household and transportation sectors. Results show that the share of energy subsidies allocated to commercial and transportation sectors should increase to 30.4 and 28.6 percent respectively.
Dr Alireza Erfani, Khayam Sadeghi, Mohammad Mahdi Poya,
Volume 4, Issue 13 (12-2013)

Simple sum monetary aggregation approach that based upon perfect substitution of monetary components assumption is inconsistent with microeconomics theories. In this research, using quarterly data of Iran over period 1370:1–1388:1, we first calculate monetary aggregation based on divisia index for both measures of money (M1, M2) and then estimate the demand functions for money for divisia and simple sum monetary aggregations separately. The results show that the adjustment speed of divisia aggregations is more than that of simple sum aggregations and the demand functions for money that construct by divisia aggregations, are more stable.
Alimorad Sharifi, Rahman Khoshakhlagh, Marzieh Bahaloo Horeh, Ali Sadeghi Hamedani,
Volume 4, Issue 16 (9-2014)

Energy carrier’s subsidization has placed a significant pressure on government budget in Iran thus, energy price increase is performed in order to ameliorate this case. One of the main challenges that policymakers need to consider is the impact of energy prices increase on the labor market especially, when the national unemployment rate is high. This paper utilizes a computable general equilibrium model based on a Micro Consistent Matrix for 2006 in order to evaluate the impact of energy price increase on the Iranian labor market during 2006. The empirical results are based on two scenarios: Baseline and FOB price increase scenarios. They show that the activity level and demand for labor in “crude oil, natural gas, and coal” as well as “other services” sectors will increase in short-run while the energy carriers’ prices increase. However, in long-run, the labor increment will be lower. Furthermore, the model results indicate that in short-run, the activity level and demand for labor in the other sectors will decrease. On the other hand, the policy will result in a larger decrement in the activity level and demand for labor in these sectors in long-run.
Masoud Sadeghi,
Volume 5, Issue 19 (6-2015)

In many Developing Countries liberalization of international trade has been accompanied by demand for skilled labour and inequalityof wages.Thisphenomenon seems to be inconsistant with the Stopler- Samuelson Theorem.Studies in this respect show that imported high –tech capital andintermediate goods are skill-based, thus increasing the relative demand for skilled labour.
In such circumstances, identifying the impact of such goods upon the demand for skilled labour in Iran is of great importance.
In this paper, by using Translog cost function and the Method of Seemingly Unrelated Regression, short and long run demand function for the period of 1977- 2014 in Iran has been estimated. Althoug the short and long –run results arecompatible with the theortical expections, the investment on domestic research and development regarding the employment of skilled labour has been effective only in the long-run and not the short –run.

Mahdi Sadeghi Shahdani , Ehsan Aghajani Memar ,
Volume 5, Issue 20 (9-2015)

Fiscal decentralization that is considered a transfer of responsibilities that associated with accountability to sub – national governments, increases efficiency and providing better access to public goods in the Economy. According to the five-year development plans of Iran creating and allocating structure for provincial budgeting, fiscal decentralization generally is moving in the costs of its Provinces in order to give more responsibility to the provincial development projects. The aim of this study is an investigation of effect for partial fiscal decentralization on regional economic growth of Iran. Fiscal decentralization index is proportion of provincial's capital assets to government's capital assets, So this researches the effects of decentralization on economic growth in the framework of Solow's growth model. That the results based on data from 30 provinces between 2000 and 2007 on the panel data estimation, shows partial fiscal decentralization which has a non-linear relationship with the growth (convex shape) and partial fiscal decentralization Indicts the Optimal degree in growth of regional economy in Iran.

Seyed Kamal Sadeghi, Seyed Mehdi Mousavian,
Volume 5, Issue 20 (9-2015)

As one of the important energy forms, natural gas consumption has an upward trend in recent years. Therefore management and planning for provision of it requires prediction of the future consumption. But many of prediction procedures are inherently stochastic therefore it is important to have better knowledge about the robustness of prediction procedures. This paper compares robustness of two prediction procedures Artificial Neural Networks as a nonlinear and ARIMA as a linear model. using resampling method to predict the monthly consumption of natural gas in the household sector. Data spans from 2001-4 to 2012-3, to train the networks, we used genetic algorithms and Particle Swarming Optimization then results were compared using 10-fold method. According to the results, the particle swarm optimization (PSO) outperforms the genetic algorithm. Then we used data from 2001-4 to 2010-3, with resampling by 2000 to predict the  natural gas consumption for the 2001 -4 to 2012-3 and to form critical values. Results show that prediction by a mixed method using ANN and PSO is more robust than ARIMA method.

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فصلنامه تحقیقات مدلسازی اقتصادی Journal of Economic Modeling Research
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