Volume 16, Issue 43 (16 2016)                   jgs 2016, 16(43): 7-24 | Back to browse issues page

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ghasemi A R. Modeling feasibility and prediction of minimum and maximum temperature in Iran by bettitt and Holt-Winters methods. jgs 2016; 16 (43) :7-24
URL: http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2710-en.html
, ghasemiar@yahoo.com
Abstract:   (21503 Views)

Air temperature is one of the most frequently used parameters in the assessment of climate change at global and regional scale. So researchers have tried to modeling and predicting it with different models. This study also aims to model and predict the country's monthly minimum and maximum temperature. Investigates of temporal temperature changes is done by Sen’s estimator and Pettit method and predicting made by Holt-Winters model. The results indicated that the minimum temperature during 1961 to 2010 increased by 2.9º C . This rate is more in stations located in the warm and dry regions (3.1°C) than any other stations (1.8°C). While the maximum temperature gradient changes are lower and is about 2.1°C. The results also confirmed the performance of Holt-Winter's forecasting model. Beside a few exceptions, the minimum and maximum temperature will be increased until 2020. The highest increase of temperature will occur in Khoy, so that the minimum and maximum temperature will be increased about 0.6°C and 0.28°C, respectively.

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Type of Study: Research | Subject: turism planing
Received: 2017/03/13 | Accepted: 2017/03/13

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