دوره 17، شماره 47 - ( 10-1396 )                   جلد 17 شماره 47 صفحات 189دوره171فصل__Se | برگشت به فهرست نسخه ها

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Sasanpour F. Future Studies Urban bubble in Tehran metropolitan. jgs 2017; 17 (47) :171-189
URL: http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2944-fa.html
ساسان پور فرزانه، حاتمی افشار، بابایی شایان. آینده پژوهی حباب شهرنشینی در کلانشهر تهران. نشریه تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی. 1396; 17 (47) :171-189

URL: http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2944-fa.html


1- دانشگاه خوارزمی تهران ، sasanpour@khu.ac.ir
2- دانشگاه خوارزمی تهران
3- دانشگاه خوارزمی تهران
چکیده:   (7749 مشاهده)
حباب شهرنشینی مفهوم جدیدی در عرصه برنامه ریزی شهری برای بررسی پایداری و ناپایداری در سطوح مختلف اجتماعی، اقتصادی، زیست محیطی، مدیریتی است. تاکنون تعریف مشترکی از حباب شهرنشینی ارایه نشده است که حاکی از عدم وجود مطالعات بسیار در این زمینه می باشد. این پژوهش به دنبال آن است تا وضعیت آینده حباب شهرنشینی در کلانشهر تهران را با استفاده از رویکرد سناریو مورد بررسی قرار دهد. این پژوهش به لحاظ هدف کاربردی و به لحاظ ماهیت و روش تحقیق توصیفی تحلیلی از نوع اکتشافی است. اطلاعات مورد نیاز پژوهش از طریق مطالعات میدانی و اسنادی گردآوری شدند. در مطالعات میدانی از تکنیک دلفی در قالب گروه 30 نفره انجام شد. برای تحلیل داده ها از روش تحلیل اثرات متقابل در نرم افزار MICMAC استفاده شد. نتایج پژوهش حاکی از آن است که 56 عامل بعنوان عوامل کلیدی در پنج بعد نهادی، مدیریتی، اقتصادی، اجتماعی و زیست محیطی موثر بر وضعیت آینده حباب شهرنشینی شناسایی شدند. سپس با نظر خبرگان به 25 عامل پیشران تقلیل یافتند. وضعیت پراکندگی متغیرها حاکی از ناپایداری سیستم کلانشهری تهران می باشد. پنج دسته عوامل تاثیرگذار، دووجهی، تنظیمی، تاثیرپذیر و مستقل شناسایی شدند. امتیازات نهایی و رتبه بندی عوامل کلیدی انجام شد و در نهایت سه سناریو برای وضعیت آینده حباب شهرنشینی در کلانشهر تهران ارایه گردید.
 
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نوع مطالعه: كاربردي | موضوع مقاله: جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری

فهرست منابع
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40. Baur, D. G., & Heaney, R. (2017). Bubbles in the Australian housing market. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 44, 113–126.
41. Bell, W. (2003). Foundations of Futures Studies: History, Purposes, and Knowledge (Vol. 1). New Brunswick. NJ: Transaction Publishers.
42. Cheng, M. N., Wong, J. W. K., Cheung, C. F., & Leung, K. H. (2016). A scenario-based roadmapping method for strategic planning and forecasting: A case study in a testing, inspection and certification company. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 111, 44–62.
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45. Ejaro, S. P., & Abubakar, A. (2013). Impact of rapid urbanization on sustainable development of Nyanya , Federal Capital Territory , Abuja , Nigeria. The International Journal’s Research Journal of Social Sciences and Management, 3, 31–44.
46. Fernández Muñoz, S., & Collado Cueto, L. (2017). What has happened in Spain? The real estate bubble, corruption and housing development: A view from the local level. Geoforum, 85(March 2015), 206–213.
47. Glaeser, E. L., Gyourko, J., & Saiz, A. (2008). Housing supply and housing bubbles. Journal of Urban Economics, 64(2), 198–217.
48. Glenn, J. C., & Gordon, T. J. (2009). Futures Research Methodology-Version 3-0. Editorial desconocida.
49. González, R. C. L., José, M., Mantiñán, P., & Miró, S. V. (2016). The Urban Bubble Process in Spain : an Interpretation From the Theory of the Circuits of Capital. Journal of Urban and Regional Analysis, VIII(1), 5–20.
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51. Huang, W., Huang, Y., Lin, S., Chen, Z., Gao, B., & Cui, S. (2018). Changing urban cement metabolism under rapid urbanization – A flow and stock perspective. Journal of Cleaner Production, 173, 197–206.
52. Kosow, H., & Gaßner, R. (2008). Methods of Future and Scenario Analysis.
53. Liu, C. H., Nowak, A., & Rosenthal, S. S. (2016). Housing price bubbles, new supply, and within-city dynamics. Journal of Urban Economics, 96, 55–72.
54. Lucas, J. P. (2012). Essays on City Size Distribution and Real Estate Bubbles.
55. Mahmud, J. (2011). City foresight and development planning case study: Implementation of scenario planning in formulation of the Bulungan development plan. Futures, 43(7), 697–706.
56. Martelli, A. (2014). Models of Scenario Building and Planning: Facing Uncertainty and Complexity.
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58. Masini, E. B. (2001). New challenges for futures studies. Futures, 33(7), 637–647.
59. Naeimi, K., & Pourmohammadi, M. R. (2016). Identifying the key factors influencing the future status of urban slums regarding future study approach: the case study of Sanandaj, 5(20), 53–64. Retrieved from http://urbstudies.uok.ac.ir/article_40902.html
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69. Wack, P. (1985). Ж scenarios: uncharted waters ahead. Harvard Business Review September–October.
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108. Zegras, C., & Rayle, L. (2012). Testing the rhetoric: An approach to assess scenario planning’s role as a catalyst for urban policy integration. Futures, 44(4), 303–318. [DOI:10.1016/j.futures.2011.10.013]
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