Volume 23, Issue 69 (6-2023)
jgs 2023, 23(69): 1-14 |
Back to browse issues page
Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:
Hejazizadeh Z, Zarei S. (2023). Investigation of Changes of Temperature and Rainfall Indicators in Kurdistan Province Based on Radiation Injection Scenarios (RCP). jgs. 23(69), : 1 doi:10.61186/jgs.23.69.1
URL: http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3015-en.html
URL: http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-3015-en.html
1- , sharife.za68@yahoo.com
Abstract: (9449 Views)
Abstract
In recent years, attention has been paid to climate change, which could be the result of economic, social, and financial losses associated with extreme weather events. The purpose of this study is to investigate the variation of extreme temperature and precipitation in Kurdistan province. For this purpose, daily rainfall data, minimum temperature and maximum temperature of 6 stations were used during the statistical period (1990-1990). And their changes during the period (2041-2060) using the universal HadGEM2 model under two scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 and the LARS-WG6 statistical downscaling were investigated. In order to study the trend of climatic extreme indexes, rainfall and temperature indices were analyzed using RClimdex software. The results showed that during the period (2016-1990), hot extreme indicators have a positive and incremental trend. This trend is significant for the "number of summer days" and "maximum monthly of maximum daily temperature" indicators. This is while the cold extreme indexes had a decreasing and negative trend. This trend was significant only for the "cold days" index. Extreme precipitation in Kurdistan province has a negative trend in most stations. ،this trend is significant at most stations, that indicates a reduction in the severity, duration and frequency of precipitation during the study period. The results of the climate change outlook also indicate that the temperature will increase over the next period and rainfall will decrease.
In recent years, attention has been paid to climate change, which could be the result of economic, social, and financial losses associated with extreme weather events. The purpose of this study is to investigate the variation of extreme temperature and precipitation in Kurdistan province. For this purpose, daily rainfall data, minimum temperature and maximum temperature of 6 stations were used during the statistical period (1990-1990). And their changes during the period (2041-2060) using the universal HadGEM2 model under two scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 and the LARS-WG6 statistical downscaling were investigated. In order to study the trend of climatic extreme indexes, rainfall and temperature indices were analyzed using RClimdex software. The results showed that during the period (2016-1990), hot extreme indicators have a positive and incremental trend. This trend is significant for the "number of summer days" and "maximum monthly of maximum daily temperature" indicators. This is while the cold extreme indexes had a decreasing and negative trend. This trend was significant only for the "cold days" index. Extreme precipitation in Kurdistan province has a negative trend in most stations. ،this trend is significant at most stations, that indicates a reduction in the severity, duration and frequency of precipitation during the study period. The results of the climate change outlook also indicate that the temperature will increase over the next period and rainfall will decrease.
Article number: 1
Keywords: Key words: Climate Change, extreme Temperature, extreme Rainfall, RClimdex, LARS-WG, Kurdistan province
Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
climatology
References
1. برنا، رضا؛ جهان، آیگین (1394)؛ مطالعه روند تغییرات شاخصهای حدی اقلیمی دما و بارش در جنوب غرب ایران (مطالعه موردی: استان بوشهر)؛ فصلنامه جغرافیای طبیعی، :28 .43-64.
2. جهانبخشاصل، سعید؛ خورشید دوست، علیمحمد؛ دینپژوه، یعقوب؛ سرافروزه، فاطمه(1393)؛ تحلیل روند و تخمین دوره های بازگشت دما و بارش های حدی در تبریز، جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی، :50 .107-133.
3. خالدی، شهریار؛ علی بخشی، زهرا؛ شیراوند، هنگامه؛ مرادی، علی (1394)؛ بررسی شاخص های حدی اقلیمی شهر قزوین با تأکید بر خشک سالی ناشی از تغییر اقلیم با استفاده از نرم افزار RClimdex، اولین کنگره بینالمللی زمین، فضا و انرژی پاك، اردبیل، دانش گاه محقق اردبیلی.
4. رحیم زاده فاطمه؛ هدایت دزفولی، اکرم؛ پور اصغریان، آرزو (1390)؛ ارزیابی روند و جهش نمایه های حدی دما و بارش در استان هرمزگان، جغرافیا و توسعه، :21 .97-116.
5. رحیم زاده، فاطمه؛ عسگری، احمد؛ فتاحی، ابراهیم؛ محمدیان، نوشین؛ تقی پور، افسانه(1388)؛ روند نمایه های حدی آب و هوایی دما در ایران طی دوره ،2003-1951 فصلنامه تحقیقات جغرافیایی. .144-93:119.
6. رضایی بنفشه، مجید؛ سرافروزه، فاطمه؛ جاللی، طاهره (1390)؛ بررسی روند دما و بارش های روزانه در حوضه دریاچه ارومیه ، علمی پژوهشی جغرافیا و برنامهریزی، :38 .43-74.
7. عرفانیان، مریم؛ انصاری، حسین؛ علیزاده، امین؛ بنایان اول، محمد (1396)؛ برآورد روابط فراوانی_تداوم_دوره بازگشت نمایه های فرین اقلیمی در نقاط مختلف استان خراسان رضوی، فصلنامه تحقیقات جغرافیایی :124 .37-50
8. عساکره، حسین (1389)؛ تحلیل تغییرات بارش های فرین شهر زنجان؛ تحقیق های آب وهواشناسی، (1 و 2): .100-89.
9. عساکره، حسین (1391)؛ تغییر توزیع فراوانی بارش های فرین شهر زنجان؛ جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی، :1 .51-66
10. عسگری، احمد؛ رحیم زاده، فاطمه؛ محمدیان، نوشین؛ فتاحی، ابراهیم (1386)؛ تحلیل روند نمایه های بارش های حدی در ایران، تحقیقات منابع آب، :3 .55-42.
11. علیجانی، بهلول (1390)؛ تحلیل فضایی دماها و بارشهای بحرانی روزانه در ایران، تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی، :20 .19-30.
12. علیجانی، بهلول؛ فرج زاده، حسن (1394)؛ تحلیل روند شاخص های دمای فرین در شمال ایران؛ نشریه علمی_پژوهشی جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی؛ 19(52): .256-229.
13. کوزه گران بابایی فینی، ام السلمه؛ قاسمی، الهه؛ فتاحی، ابراهیم (1393)؛ بررسی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر روند نمایه های حدی بارش ایران زمین، تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی، :3 .103-85.
14. کوزهگران، سعیده؛ موسویبایگی، محمد (1394)؛ بررسی روند رویدادهای حدی اقلیمی در شمال شرق ایران ؛ نشریه آبوخاك (علوم و صنایع کشاورزی)، 29(3): .764-750.
15. کوهی، منصوره؛ موسوی بایگی، محمد؛ فرید حسینی، علیرضا؛ ثنایی نژاد، حسین؛ جباری نوقابی، هادی (1391)؛ ریزمقیاس نمایی آماری و ارائه سناریوهای آتی روید ادهای حدی بارش در حوضه کشف رود، پژوهش های اقلیم شناسی، :12 .35-53.
16. محمدی، حسین؛ تقوی، فرحناز (1384)؛ روند شاخصهای حدی دما و بارش در تهران، پژوهشهای جغرافیایی، :53 .151-172.
17. محمدی، حسین؛ عزیزی، قاسم؛ خوشاخالق، فرامرز؛ رنجبر، فیروز (1396)؛ تحلیل روند شاخص ه ای حدی بارش روزانه در ایران، پژوهشهای جغرافیای طبیعی، :1 .21-37.
18. مظفری، غالمعلی؛ شفیعی، شهاب (1395)؛ واکاوی زمانی_مکانی بارشهای حدی مناطق غربی ایران، فصلنامه جغرافیایی سرزمین، :52 .77-94.
19. IPCC.( 1995). ClimateChange1994,In: Houghten JT., Meira Filno L G., Bruce J.P., Lee H.,Callender,B.T., Haites E.F., Harris.
20. Watson, R. T., M. C. Zinyowera, and R. H. Moss (1997). "IPCC Summary for Policymakers, The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability", Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, WMO and UNEP publication, Geneva.
21. Thomas R; Karl and Richard W. Knight (1998). Secular Trends of Precipitation Amount, Frequency, and Intensity in the United States, National Climatic Data Center, Vol. 79, No. 2, 231-241.https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<0231:STOPAF>2.0.CO;2
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<0231:STOPAF>2.0.CO;2 [DOI:10.1175/1520-0477(1998)0792.0.CO;2]
22. Suppiah R, Hennessy K (1998). Trends in seasonal rainfall, heavy rain days, and number of dry days in Australia 1910-1990. Int J Climatol 18:1141-1155.https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199808)18:10<1141::AID-JOC286>3.0.CO;2-P
https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199808)18:10<1141::AID-JOC286>3.0.CO;2-P [DOI:10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199808)18:103.0.CO;2-P]
23. M.J. Manton, , P.M. Della-Marta, M.R. Haylock, K.J. hennessy, N. Nicholls, L.E. Chambers, D.A. CollIns, G. Daw, A. Finet, D. Gunawan, K. Inape, H. Isob, T.S. Kestin, P. Lefale, C.H. Leyu, T. Lwin, L. Maitrepierre, N. Ouprasttwong, C.M. Page, J. Pahaalad, N (2001). Trends in Extreme Daily fall And Temperature in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific: 1961-1998, International Journal of Climatology, 21: 269-284. [DOI:10.1002/joc.610]
24. Ramos,m.c. (2001). Rainfall distribution pattern and their change over time in a Mediterranean area. J. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 69,163-170. [DOI:10.1007/s007040170022]
25. Rodrigo FS (2002). Changes in climate variability and seasonal rainfall extremes: a case study from San Fernando (Spain), 1821-2000. Theor Appl Climatol 72:193-207 [DOI:10.1007/s007040200020]
26. May W, (2004). Simulation of the variability and extremes of daily rainfall during the Indian summer monsoon for present and future times in a global time-slice experiment. Clim Dyn 22(2-3):183-204 [DOI:10.1007/s00382-003-0373-x]
27. E. Aguilar, T. C. Peterson, P. Ramírez Obando, R. Frutos, J. A. Retana, M. Solera, J. Soley, I. González García (2005). Changes in precipitation and temperature extremes in Central America and northern South America, 1961-2003, limate and Dynamics, DOI: 10.1029/2005JD006119. [DOI:10.1029/2005JD006119]
28. Xuebin Zhang, Enric Aguilar, Serhat Sensoy, Hamlet Melkonyan, Umayra Tagiyeva, Nader Ahmed, Nato Kutaladze, Fatemeh Rahimzadeh, Afsaneh Taghipour, T. H. Hantosh, Pinhas Albert, Mohammed Semawi, Mohammad Karam Ali, Mansoor Halal Said Al-Shabibi, Zaid Al-Oulan, Taha Zatari, Imad Al Dean Khelet, Saleh Hamoud, Ramazan Sagir, Mesut Demircan, Mehmet Eken, Mustafa Adiguzel, Lisa Alexander, Thomas C. Peterson, and Trevor Wallis (2005). Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 110, D22104, doi: 10.1029/2005JD006181. [DOI:10.1029/2005JD006181]
29. Ardakani M R.,Hadj Seyed Hadi M R., Notghi Taheri H. (2005). Introduction to agrometeorology. Ghalamestan Honar.Tehran.
30. Su BD, Jiang T, Jin WB (2006); Recent trends in observed temperature and precipitation extremes in the Yangtze River basin, China. Theor Appl Climatol 83:139-151 [DOI:10.1007/s00704-005-0139-y]
31. Nobuo. Yamazaki, Fumiaki. Fujibe, Kenji. Kobayashi. (2006). Long term changes of heavy precipitation and dry weather in Japan (1901-2004), journal of the meteorological society of japan, Vol.84, No. 6, pp. 1033-1046. [DOI:10.2151/jmsj.84.1033]
32. Alexander L.V., Zhang X., Peterson T.C., Caesar J., Gleason B., Klein Tank A.M.G., Haylock M., Collins D., Trewin B., Rahimzadeh F., Tagipour A., Ambenje P., Rupa Kumar K., Revadekar J.V., Griffiths G., Vincent L., Stephenson D., Burn J., Aguilar E., Brunet M., Taylor M., New M., Zhai P., Rusticucci M., Vazquez-Aguirre J.L.(2006). Global Observed Changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation, Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, D05109, DOI: 10.1029 / 2005JD006290. [DOI:10.1029/2005JD006290]
33. IPCC, Climate Change (2007). "The Physical Science Basis, A Contribution of Working Groups. I, to the Forth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Solomon and the Core Writing Team (eds) ". Cambridge University press. Cambridge United Kingdom and New York, USA.
34. You Q, Kang S, Aguilar E, Yan Y (2008). Changes in daily climate extremes in the eastern and central Tibetan 31 plateau during 1961-2005. J Geophys Res. doi:10.1029/2007JD009389. [DOI:10.1029/2007JD009389]
35. Gwangyong Choi, Dean Collins, Guoyu Ren, Blair Trewin, Marina Baldi, Yoshikazu Fukuda, Muhammad Afzaal, Theeraluk Pianmana, Purevjav Gomboluudev, Pham Thi Thanh Huong, Norlisam Lias, Won-Tae Kwon, Kyung-On Boo, Yu-Mi Cha and Yaqing Zhou (2009). Changes in means and extreme events of temperature and precipitation in the Asia-Pacific Network region, 1955-2007, International Journal of Climatology, Int. J. Climatol. 29: 1906-1925 [DOI:10.1002/joc.1979]
36. Rajmund. Przybylak, Andrzej. Araźny, Marek. Kejna, Joanna. Uscka-Kowalkowska (2007); Poland's Climate Extremes Index, 1951-2005, Geographia Polonica, 47-58.
37. Mónica S., Santos F.( 2011). Trends in extreme daily precipitation indices in Northern of Portugal. Geophysical Research Abstracts. Vol. 13, EGU2011-11285.
38. Marjana Gajić-Čapka, Ksenija Cindri (2011). Secular trends in indices of precipitation extremes in Croatia, 1901-2008, Original scientific paper, VOL. 28: 551-583.
39. Hiroyuki. Iwasaki (2012). Recent positive trend in heavy rainfall in eastern Japan and its relation with variations in atmospheric Moisture, International Journal of Climatology. Int. J. Climatol. 32: 364-374. [DOI:10.1002/joc.2269]
40. Warner, M.D.; Mass, C.F. and Salathe, E.P. (2012). Wintertime Extreme Precipitation Events along the Pacific Northwest Coast: Climatology and Synoptic Evolution, Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 140, July 2012, DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-11-00197. [DOI:10.1175/MWR-D-11-00197.1]
41. New, M.; Hewitson ,B.; Stephenson ,D. B.; Tsiga, A.; Kruger .A.;Manhique .A.; Gomez. B.; Coelho, Caio A. S..; Dorcas ,N M.; Skansi. M de los M.; Manola ,B.; Javier .S.; Aguilar, E .; Groening ,J A A .; Bentancur ,O J .; Geier ,Y. R. C.; Amaya ,R. L. C .; Jácome ,H .; Ramos ,A. M .; Rojas, C. O , Pasten, A. M , Mitro ,S .S , Jiménez ,C. V .; Martínez, R .; Alexander, L. V , Jones ,P.D. (2013). Warming and wetting signals emerging from analysis of changes in climate extreme indices over South America, Global and planetary change, 100: 295-307. [DOI:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.11.004]
42. Mohammad M. Sohrabi, Jae H. Ryu , John Abatzoglou, John Tracy (2013). Climate extreme and its linkage to regional drought over Idaho, USA. Natural Hazards, Vol 65, pp 653-681. [DOI:10.1007/s11069-012-0384-1]
43. Akihiko. Murata, Hidetaka. Sasaki, Mizuki. Hanafusa, Kazuo. Kurihara (2014); Mechanism of early-summer low-temperature extremes in Japan projected by a nonhydrostatic regional climate model, Weather and Climate Extremes 4, 62-74. [DOI:10.1016/j.wace.2014.04.007]
44. Abdullah Gokhan. Yilmaz (2014). The effects of climate change on historical and future extreme rainfall in Antalya, Turkey. Journal of Hydrological Sciences, Volume 60: pp. 2148-2162. [DOI:10.1080/02626667.2014.945455]
45. M. Roth, T.A.Buishand, G.Jongbloed, A.M.G.KleinTank, J.H.vanZant (2014). Projections of precipitation extremes based on a regional, non-stationary peaks-over-threshold approach: A case study for the Netherlands and north-western Germany, Weather and Climate Extremes. 1-10. [DOI:10.1016/j.wace.2014.01.001]
46. Keggenhoff, M .Elizbarashvili, A.Amiri-Farahani, L.King (2014). Trends in daily temperature and precipitation extremes over Georgia, 1971-2010. Weather and Climate Extremes 4, 75-85. [DOI:10.1016/j.wace.2014.05.001]
47. Andrew D King and David J Karoly (2017). Climate extremes in Europe at 1.5 and 2 degrees of global warming. Environmental Research Letters.
Send email to the article author
| Rights and permissions | |
 |
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. |
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons — Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0)