Volume 26, Issue 81 (6-2026)
jgs 2026, 26(81): 0-0 |
Back to browse issues page
Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:
Jahdi R. (2026). Understanding Wildfire Regime and Mapping Wildfire Hazard in the Protected Areas in Guilan Province. jgs. 26(81),
URL: http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-4354-en.html
URL: http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-4354-en.html
University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Associate professor, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Daneshgah/University Street, 56199-11367, Ardabīl, Ardabīl, Iran , roghayeh.jahdi@uma.ac.ir
Abstract: (3871 Views)
Every year, wildfires burn large areas in the Hyrcanian forests, of northern Iran. This study aims to know the fire regime and assess fire risk in protected areas in Guilan province (256,488 hectar). Fire ignitions and frequency/frequency of burned areas from 1992 to 2022 were identified. Then fire behavior modeling was done to simulate burn probability and fire intensity (i.e. conditional flame length) using the FlamMap modeling system based on fire weather information, topography maps, local fuel models, and historical fire data. By combining maps of simulated burn probability and conditional flame length, a fire hazard map was prepared in the protected areas. According to the obtained results, 8% of the number of historical fires in the period occurred in the protected areas, although most of these fires have very small sizes and limited burned areas (including 0.1% of the burned areas in the province). Frequent fires (fire frequency more than 1) cover 60% of the protected areas, and 11% of these areas are highly likely to ignite. The changes in the burn probability and fire intensity reflect the diversity of fire activity in the protected areas, especially in the south-central parts, which catch the highest values of burn probability (more than 1) and conditional flame length (more than 3 meters). Finally, the fire hazard mapping showed that 77.7% and 4.8% of the protected areas are classified as very low and low fire hazards, respectively. On the other hand, 12.4% and 5.2% of these areas were placed in high and very high hazard classes, respectively. The quantitative results of this research provide scientific criteria for identifying high-priority areas in protected areas where management efforts can help reverse the increasing fire risk of protected forests.
Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Geography Information System
References
1. الحاج خلف، محمد واثق؛ شتایی، شعبان و رقیه جهدی (1399). مقایسه عملکرد مدلهای اولیه و بهینهشده اتوماسیون سلولی در پیشبینی گسترش آتشسوزی جنگل. جنگل و صنوبر ایران، 28 (4)، 369-351. [DOI:10.22092/ijfpr.2020.351429.1945]
2. باقرآبادی، رسول؛ شیخ کانلوی میلان، فرهاد و محسن زارعی محمد آباد (1401). ارزیابی خطر آتشسوزی در جنگلهای زاگرس (مطالعه موردی شهرستان دالاهو). مدیریت اکوسیستمهای طبیعی، 2 (2)، 72-60. [DOI:10.22034/emj.2022.254859]
3. جانبزرگی، محمد؛ حنیفهپور، مهین و حسن خسروی (1400). تغییرات زمانی خشکسالی هواشناسی- هیدرولوژیکی (مطالعه موردی: استان گیلان). مدلسازی و مدیریت آب و خاک، 1 (2)، 13-1. [DOI:10.22098/mmws.2021.1215]
4. جهدی، رقیه و محمد واثق الحاج خلف (1403). مدلسازی خطر آتشسوزی با استفاده از روشهای سنجش از دور و شبیهسازی رفتار آتش در استان گیلان. جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی، 13 (4). [DOI:10.22067/geoeh.2024.86597.1462]
5. جهدی، رقیه (1402). آتشسوزیها در تودههای جنگلکاری تنکشده و تنکنشده در شمال ایران. جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی، 12 (1)، 101-87. [DOI:10.22067/geoeh.2022.74988.1164]
6. جهدی، رقیه؛ درویش صفت، علی اصغر و حسین بدری پور (1399). مدلسازی ریسک و فشار آتش با استفاده از سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی در شهرستانهای خلخال و کوثر. تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی. 7 (3)، 94-79. http://dx.doi.org/10.29252/jsaeh.7.3.79 [DOI:10.29252/jsaeh.7.3.79]
7. شیرزاد، فرزاد؛ علیجانی، بهلول؛ اکبری، مهری و محمد سلیقه (1404). مطالعه فرایند تغییر اقلیم در استان گیلان با استفاده از شاخص های اقلیم شناسی درختی. تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی، 25 (78). http://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.22287736.1300.0.0.191.4
8. علی نیا، اکرم؛ گندمکار، امیر و علیرضا عباسی (1403). تحلیل روند سری زمانی فراوانی آتش سوزی منابع طبیعی در ارتباط با ساختار پوشش گیاهی با استفاده از محصولات سنجنده مودیس(مورد: استان لرستان). تحقیقات کاربردی علوم جغرافیایی، ۲۴ (۷۵)،۴۸۰-۴۹۲. http://jgs.khu.ac.ir/article-1-4196-fa.html
9. فرهی آشتیانی، احسان؛ قدسخواه دریایی، مهرداد؛ محمدی سمانی، کیومرث و مسعود امین املشی (1391). بررسی مناطق حساس و بحرانی آتشسوزی با تأکید بر خشکسالی با استفاده از AHP ،PDSI و GIS (مطالعه موردی: جنگل سراوان استان گیلان). تحقیقات حمایت و حفاظت جنگلها و مراتع ایران، 10 (2)، 101-83. [DOI:10.22092/ijfrpr.2012.11141]
10. گلیجی، الهام؛ حسینی، سید محسن؛ خراسانی، نعمت الله و سید مسعود منوری (1397). ارزیابی ریسک مخاطره آتشسوزی درجنگل با استفاده از WLC و ANP (مطالعه موردی: حوضه آبخیز 33 و 34 شمال ایران). مخاطرات محیط طبیعی، 7 (15)، 222-107. [DOI:10.22111/jneh.2017.3265]
11. هدایتی، سیده نگار؛ جنیدی جعفری، حامد و شیرکو ابراهیمی محمدی (1398). بررسی ریسک وقوع آتش سوزی عرصه های طبیعی استان کردستان به کمک تکنیک شاخص آماری. محیط زیست طبیعی (منابع طبیعی ایران)، 72(3 )، 403-416. [DOI:10.22059/jne.2019.271708.1594]
12. Arellano-del-Verbo, G., Urbieta, I. R., & Moreno, J. M. (2023). Large-Fire Ignitions Are Higher in Protected Areas than Outside Them in West-Central Spain. Fire, 6, 28. [DOI:10.3390/fire6010028]
13. Arsenault, A., LeBlanc, R., Earle, E., Brooks, D., Clarke, B., Lavigne, D., & Royer, L. (2016). Unravelling the past to manage Newfoundland's forests for the future. The Forestry Chronicle, 92 (4), 487-502. [DOI:10.5558/tfc2016-085]
14. Birch, C. P., Oom, S. P., Beecham, J. A. 2007. Rectangular and hexagonal grids used for observation, experiment and simulation in ecology. Ecological Modelling, 206, 347-359. [DOI:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.03.041]
15. Breunig, M., Bradley, P. E., Jahn, M., Kuper, P., Mazroob, N., Rösch, N., Al-Doori, M., Stefanakis, E., & Jadidi, M. (2020). Geospatial Data Management Research: Progress and Future Directions. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 9, 95. [DOI:10.3390/ijgi9020095]
16. Cillis, G., Lanorte, A., Santarsiero, V., & Nolè, G. (2023). Natural Hazard Impact in Protected Areas for Resilience Management: The Case of Wildfires in the Basilicata Region. Pollutants, 3, 437-450. [DOI:10.3390/pollutants3040030]
17. Chambers, J. C., Strand, E. K., Ellsworth, L. M., Tortorelli, C. M., Urza, A. K., Crist, M. R., Miller, R. F., Reeves, M. C., Short, K. C., & Williams, C. L. (2024). Review of fuel treatment effects on fuels, fire behavior and ecological resilience in sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) ecosystems in the Western U.S. Fire Ecology, 20, 32. [DOI:10.1186/s42408-024-00260-4]
18. Da Ponte, E., Alcasena, F., Bhagwat, T., Hu, Z., Eufemia, L., Turetta, A. P. D., Bonatti, M., Sieber, S., & Barr, P. L. (2023). Assessing wildfire activity and forest loss in protected areas of the Amazon basin. Applied Geography, 157, 102970. [DOI:10.1016/j.apgeog.2023.102970]
19. Ebright, S. J., Stan, A. B., Sâm, H. V., & Fulé, P. Z. (2023). Protected Areas Conserved Forests from Fire and Deforestation in Vietnam's Central Highlands from 2001 to 2020. Fire, 6, 164. [DOI:10.3390/fire6040164]
20. Erni, S., Wang, X., Swystun, T., Taylor, S. W., Parisien, M. A., Robinne, F. N., Eddy, B., Oliver, J., Armitage, B., & Flannigan, M. D. (2024). Mapping wildfire hazard, vulnerability, and risk to Canadian communities. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 101,104221. [DOI:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.104221]
21. Finney, M. A. (2006). An Overview of FlamMap Fire Modeling Capabilities. In: Andrews, Patricia L.; Butler, Bret W., comps. 2006. Fuels Management-How to Measure Success: Conference Proceedings. 28-30 March 2006; Portland, OR. Proceedings RMRS-P-41. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 213-220
22. Flannigan, M. D., Wotton, B. M., Marshall, G. A., De Groot, W., Johnston, J., Jurko, N., & Cantin, A. (2016). Fuel moisture sensitivity to temperature and precipitation: climate change implications. Climatic Change, 134, 59-71. [DOI:10.1007/s10584-015-1521-0]
23. Heidari, H., Arabi, M., Warziniack, T. (2021). Effects of Climate Change on Natural-Caused Fire Activity in Western U.S. National Forests. Atmosphere, 12, 981. [DOI:10.3390/atmos12080981]
24. Hino, M., & Field, C. B. (2023). Fire frequency and vulnerability in California. PLOS Climate, 2(2), e0000087. [DOI:10.1371/journal.pclm.0000087]
25. ISO 31000:2018, 3.7. https://www.iso.org/obp/ui/#iso:std:iso:31000:ed-2:v1:en
26. Jacobsen, A. L., Pratt, R. B., Ewers, F. W., & Davis, S. D. (2007). Cavitation resistance among twenty-six chaparral species of southern California. Ecological Monographs, 77, 99-115. [DOI:10.1890/05-1879]
27. Jin, Y., Goulden, M. L., Faivre, N., Veraverbeke, S., Sun, F., Hall, A., Hand, M. S., Hook, S., & Randerson, J. T. (2015). Identification of two distinct fire regimes in Southern California: implications for economic impact and future change. Environmental Research Letters, 10, 094005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094005 [DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/094005]
28. Kobziar, L. N., Hiers, J. K., Belcher, C. M., Bond, W. J., Enquist, C. A., Loudermilk E. L., Miesel, J. R., O'Brien, J. J., Pausas, J. G., Hood, S., Keane, R., Morgan, P., Pingree, M. R. A., Riley, K., Safford, H., Seijo, F., Varner, J. M., Wall, T., & Watts, A. C. (2024). Principles of fire ecology. Fire ecology, 20, 39. [DOI:10.1186/s42408-024-00272-0]
29. Krebs, P., Pezzatti, G. B., Mazzoleni, S., Talbot, L. M., & Conedera, M. (2010). Fire regime: history and definition of a key concept in disturbance ecology. Theory in Biosciences, 129, 53-69. [DOI:10.1007/s12064-010-0082-z] [PMID]
30. Liu, J., Wang, Y., Guo, H., Lu, Y., Xu, Y., Sun, Y., Gan, W., Sun, R., & Li, Z. (2024). Spatial and temporal patterns and driving factors of forest fires based on an optimal parameter-based geographic detector in the Panxi region, Southwest China. Fire ecolology, 20, 27. [DOI:10.1186/s42408-024-00257-z]
31. Martínez-Torres, H. L., Pérez-Salicrup, D. R., Castillo, A., & Ramírez, M. I. (2018). Fire Management in a Natural Protected Area: What Do Key Local Actors Say? Human Ecology, 46(4), 515-528. http://www.jstor.org/stable/45154160 [DOI:10.1007/s10745-018-0013-z]
32. McEvoy, A., Kerns, B. K., & Kim, J. B. (2021). Hazards of Risk: Identifying Plausible Community Wildfire Disasters in Low-Frequency Fire Regimes. Forests, 12, 934. [DOI:10.3390/f12070934]
33. McFayden, C. B., Hope, E. S., Boychuk, D., Johnston, L. M., Richardson, A., Coyle, M., Sloane, M., Cantin, A. ., Johnston, J. M., & Lynham, T. J. (2023). Canadian Fire Management Agency Readiness for WildFireSat: Assessment and Strategies for Enhanced Preparedness. Fire, 6, 73. [DOI:10.3390/fire6020073]
34. Nelson, A., & Chomitz, K. M. (2011). Effectiveness of Strict vs. Multiple Use Protected Areas in Reducing Tropical Forest Fires: A Global Analysis Using Matching Methods. PLoS ONE, 6(8), e22722. [DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0022722] [PMID] []
35. Neger, C., Ponce-Calderón, L. P., de Lourdes Manzo-Delgado, L., & López-Madrid, M. A. (2024). Integrated fire management in a tropical biosphere reserve: Achievements and challenges. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 106, 104447. [DOI:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104447]
36. O, S., Hou, X., Orth, R. (2020). Observational evidence of wildfire-promoting soil moisture anomalies. Scientific Reports, 10(1), 11008.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-67530-4 [DOI:10.1038%2Fs41598-020-67530-4] [PMID] []
37. Pausas, J. G. (2017). Fire danger, fire hazard, fire risk, … J. G. Pausas' blog, Notes on fire ecology, Mediterranean ecology, and other things …. https://jgpausas.blogs.uv.es/2017/08/05/fire-danger-fire-hazard-fire-risk/
38. Pereira, P., Mierauskas, P., Ubeda, X., Mataix-Solera, J., & Cerda, A. (2012). Fire in Protected Areas - the Effect of Protection and Importance of Fire Management. Environmental Research, Engineering and Management, 59 (1), 52-62. [DOI:10.5755/j01.erem.59.1.856]
39. Thompson, M. P., Zimmerman, T., Mindar, D., & Taber, M. (2016). Risk terminology primer: Basic principles and a glossary for the wildland fire management community. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-349. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 13 p. [DOI:10.2737/RMRS-GTR-349]
40. Wang, W., Wu, W., Guo, F., & Wang, G. (2022). Fire regime and management in Canada's protected areas. International Journal of Geoheritage and Parks, 10 (2), 240-251. [DOI:10.1016/j.ijgeop.2022.04.003]
41. White, C. A., Perrakis, D. D. B., Kafka, V. G., & Ennis, T. (2011). Burning at the edge: Integrating biophysical and Eco-cultural fire process in Canada's Parks and protected areas. Fire Ecology, 7(1), 74-106. [DOI:10.4996/fireecology.0701074]
42. Zagalikis, G. (2023). Remote Sensing and GIS Applications in Wildfires. Geographic Information Systems - Data Science Approach. IntechOpen, 24.
https://doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.111616 [DOI:10.5772/intechopen.111616.]
Send email to the article author
| Rights and permissions | |
 |
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. |
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons — Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0)