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Showing 108 results for Model

Mr Yaser Nazaryan, Phd Amane Haghzad, Phd Laila Ebrahimi, Phd Kia Bozorgmehr,
Volume 25, Issue 77 (6-2025)
Abstract

Urbanization and the increase in urban populations, resulting from both natural population growth and rural-to-urban migration, have led to the concentration of significant material and spiritual human capital within urban settlements. Concurrently, various natural and human-induced crises pose threats to these capitals. Urban management has initiated a range of programs to address these crises, with a contemporary focus on enhancing the resilience of cities. The concept of resilience can be examined across various dimensions, including physical, economic, social, and environmental aspects.
The present study adopts a descriptive-analytical approach with the objective of assessing the physical resilience of metropolitan areas in Tabriz and determining their status relative to one another. To achieve this goal, multi-criteria decision-making methods (MADM) and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) have been employed. Additionally, three models—Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), VIKOR, and Complex Proportional Assessment (COPRAS)—have been utilized to rank the regions in terms of physical resilience. Ultimately, the Copeland model was applied to integrate the results from the aforementioned models. The findings indicate that regions 2, 8, and 9 collectively exhibit the highest levels of physical resilience, followed by regions 1, 10, 3, 7, 5, 4, and, lastly, region 6, respectively.

Zohreh Maryanji, Fatemeh Sotoudeh, Meysam Toulabi Nejad, Ziba Zarrin,
Volume 25, Issue 77 (6-2025)
Abstract

Understanding and predicting future climatic conditions and characteristics is crucial due to their implications for various aspects of life. This research aims to forecast trends in extreme temperatures in the Hamedan region by employing statistical downscaling of general circulation model data. The LARS statistical downscaling model has been utilized to downscale data from the HadGEM2-ES general circulation model and the coupled CMIP5 model under three emission scenarios (RCP2.5, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). Correlation estimates between the simulated and observed data indicate values exceeding 0.95 for all months. Additionally, the p-values derived from statistical tests based on the model outputs demonstrate an acceptable level of performance in data generation and simulation. Consequently, data from 2011 to 2050 were extracted and analyzed for trends. To elucidate changes in trends, the data were examined across three distinct time intervals. The results indicate that in the optimistic scenario (RCP2.5), no significant trend is observed in the average and minimum temperatures. In contrast, significant trends in temperature data are evident under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, suggesting that the increase in average minimum temperatures reflects severe climatic changes, particularly affecting precipitation patterns during the cold season. Furthermore, the analysis of the trend data reveals a significant increase in average maximum temperatures on both annual and monthly scales across all three examined scenarios, indicating an imminent environmental crisis.

Mrs Fatemeh Vatanparast Galeh Juq, Dr Bromand Salahi, Batoul Zeinali,
Volume 25, Issue 77 (6-2025)
Abstract

This study investigates the impact of the OLR MJO Index (OMI) and the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on the frequency of dust storms in the stations of Abadan, Ahvaz, Bostan, Bandar Mahshahr, Dezful, Ramhormoz, and Masjed Soleiman, located in Khuzestan province, during the period from April to September 1987-2021. Pearson correlation coefficients were computed to assess the relationship between dust data and the indices, and the findings were depicted through zoning maps. Subsequently, the frequency percentage of each index for both positive and negative phases was quantified. The results indicate a direct and significant correlation between the positive and negative phases of the indices and dust occurrences (with the exception of Dezful station), particularly during the positive phase of the OMI and the negative phase of the RMM. The highest correlation coefficients, ranging from 0.77 to 0.72, were observed for Bandar Mahshahr and Dezful stationsduring the positive phase of the RMM index. Analysis of the relationship between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and dust storms revealed that between 51% and 59% of dust storms in Khuzestan province occurred in the negative phase of the OMI index, while 40% to 49% occurred in the positive phase. In the case of the RMM index, 56% to 63% of dust storms were associated with its negative phase, in contrast to 37% to 50% linked to its positive phase. Notably, the negative phase of the RMM index exhibited a higher percentage of dust storms compared to the negative phase of the OMI index. According to the results of the Monte Carlo test, the displacement of the positive and negative phases of the RMM index significantly contributes to the occurrence of dust storms at most stations in Khuzestan province. Furthermore, tracking the pathways of dust entering Khuzestan province using the HYSPLIT model indicates the movement of particles originating from Iraq, Arabia, and the eastern regions of Syria toward Khuzestan province..

Elham Homayooni, Dr Elham Pourmahabadian, Sina Razaghiasl,
Volume 25, Issue 77 (6-2025)
Abstract

The design of the work environment is directly linked to variations in construction performance. Factors that are not adequately considered in the design of the work environment may hinder the proper execution of administrative tasks, consequently leading to a decline in administrative productivity. The environmental characteristics of workspaces and their effects on employees are of particular significance. Furthermore, to enhance productivity within an organization, several conditions must be established, with the human factor being paramount; a motivated workforce is crucial for optimal performance. The primary objective of this research is to elucidate the optimal design model for municipal administrative spaces, with an existential approach influenced by the geography of Shahrekord. In this context, the research investigates the question of what constitutes the optimal model for designing municipal office spaces, informed by an existential perspective and geographical considerations unique to Shahrekord. The research employs a "descriptive-analytical" method for the theoretical foundation and a "survey method" for the presentation of findings. The environmental variables of office spaces, aligned with indicators of existential psychology, were assessed through a structured questionnaire. Upon completion of the questionnaires by the study participants, the collected data were analyzed using Amos and SPSS analytical software. The findings of this research regarding office buildings indicate that the most significant environmental parameters affecting human resource performance in office settings include color, lighting, noise pollution levels, visibility and scenery, indoor air quality, and thermal comfort. Additionally, factors such as design, flexibility, communication, workspace arrangement, furniture, and humidity can be categorized into two groups: psychological and physical components.

Zahra Hedjazizadeh, Sayyed Mohammad Hosseini, Ali Reza Karbalaee, Shokofe Layeghi,
Volume 25, Issue 77 (6-2025)
Abstract

Drought is a natural hazard that annually causes significant economic, social, environmental, and life-threatening damage in vast areas of the Earth. The damages caused by this phenomenon are intangible but very extensive and costly.  In many circomstancs, modern remote sensing techniques can be a useful tool in monitoring drought due to high temporal accuracy, wide spectral coverage, ease of access, no need for atmospheric correction and ground referencing. In recent years, the province of Hamedan has faced many problems due to frequent droughts. Therefore, the present study focused on investigating and monitoring drought in Hamedan province using the Temperature Condition index and its impact on the vegetation cover of the province using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) remote sensing data. First, the relevant data was extracted from the Nova star database, and finally, the spatiotemporal behavior of the vegetation cover drought index was examined on 1528 pixels in Hamedan province. The spatial resolution of the data used in this study is 4 kilometers. First, the relevant data were extracted from the Navstar database and ultimately, the spatiotemporal behavior of the drought index and vegetation cover was examined. The results indicate that drought has significantly increased the vegetation cover of Hamedan province based on remote sensing data. Kendall's coefficients indicate the presence of decreasing trends in vegetation cover at a 95 Percent confidence level. Only in May, June, and December has there been a slight decrease in vegetation cover within the extent of drought in the province. The spatial behavior analysis of the drought index on vegetation cover showed that February, March, as well as April have experienced more severe droughts within Hamedan province.

Phd Mohammad Mohammadi, Hossein Asakereh, Abdollah Faraji,
Volume 25, Issue 78 (9-2025)
Abstract

Today, energy consumption plays a decisive role in the qualitative and quantitative development of human life. One of the energy sources that aligns with development, economic prosperity, and the acquisition of climatic comfort is natural gas. This energy source, especially in cold regions of the country, is essential for providing thermal comfort and requires proper management. Effective management of this fossil energy source depends on awareness and accurate forecasting of its demand. For this reason, the demand for natural gas in Zanjan city, one of the cold cities in Iran, was studied and modeled. Two groups of data—weather elements and natural gas consumption—over a period of 9 years (2013–2021) on a daily scale were used for this study. CurveExpert software and regression methods were employed to model the demand for natural gas in the city. Based on the most accurate pattern, temperature was selected as the only independent variable in the chosen model. Polynomial regression, with a correlation coefficient of 0.94 (coefficient of determination of 89.03%), was selected as the final model. The analysis revealed that the percentage increase in natural gas consumption per one-degree decrease in temperature varies across different temperature ranges. From 22°C to 16°C, the highest percentage increase in consumption was observed, while from 0°C to -5°C, the lowest percentage increase per one-degree decrease in temperature was recorded. The turning point and the beginning of issues related to natural gas shortages in Zanjan city were identified to occur at temperatures below -7°C.

Mohammad Hasan Yazdani, Samira Saeidi Zaranji, Kamran Dolatyariyan,
Volume 25, Issue 78 (9-2025)
Abstract

Urban development strategy represents a contemporary approach in urban planning and management, offering a framework for achieving sustainable urban development through poverty reduction, citizen participation, and increased investment. Like many cities in Iran, Ardabil faces numerous challenges, including inadequate governance, deteriorating infrastructure, substandard housing, weak public utilities, and insufficient social and health services. These issues underscore the necessity of strategic planning to address urban development effectively. This study aims to evaluate the indicators of urban development strategy in Ardabil. Employing a descriptive-analytical methodology, the research is grounded in field investigations. A sample size of 230 participants was determined using Sample Power software. Data analysis was conducted using one-sample T-tests and structural equation modeling (SEM) in AMOS Graphics software. The results of the one-sample T-test revealed that the status of urban development strategy indicators—livability, good governance, bankability, and competitiveness—in Ardabil is suboptimal, with mean scores of 2.21, 2.6, 2.62, and 2.15, respectively. Second-order factor analysis indicated that among the dimensions of urban development strategy, competitiveness, with a factor weight of 0.93, exerts the most significant influence, while bankability, with a factor weight of 0.62, has the least impact. Furthermore, the findings demonstrated that an improvement in the good urban governance index leads to a 0.55 increase in bankability, a 0.76 increase in livability, and a 0.86 increase in competitiveness. These results highlight the interconnectedness of governance quality with other dimensions of urban development, emphasizing the need for integrated strategies to enhance Ardabil's urban sustainability. 

Mr Framarz Nik, Phd Ata Aleh Abdi, Phd Hosein Rabiei, Phd Hasan Rabei,
Volume 25, Issue 79 (12-2025)
Abstract

This study aims to identify the determinants influencing the political spatial organization of Alborz province. Employing a descriptive-analytical approach, this research utilizes qualitative data derived from library investigations and field studies. The methodology encompasses authentic document analysis and expert interviews to identify and examine factors affecting political spatial organization in Alborz province through grand theory application. Analysis revealed that determinants influencing political spatial organization in Alborz province encompass 50 contextual factors, 22 causal factors, 55 strategic factors, and 56 consequences. Predominant contextual factors include justice, social equity assurance, citizenship rights, national spatial political management, appointment of political administrators in divisional units, government-public communication, responsibility emphasis, and accurate recognition. Societal culture and geographic positioning represent primary causal factors, while strategic insight and educational-research strategy formulation constitute essential strategies. Administrative, military-security, and economic factors emerge as consequential elements impacting political spatial organization in Alborz province. The provincial state system operates as an open system, wherein constituent elements exhibit synergistic relationships and demonstrate temporal enhancement potential. Researchers synthesized findings into a comprehensive model demonstrating that optimal factor utilization within the system facilitates success, whereas inadequate implementation results in systemic failure within Alborz province's state management framework.


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