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All the water vapor of atmosphere is contained in a column of the atmosphere that is capable of precipitation and it is from the ground to the final of water vapor called perceptible water. This element influenced by topography and height. The purpose of this study is survey about impact of local and spatial factors on distribution of perceptible water maximums in Iran.For this reason, pressure data, especially moisture, orbital and meridional components extracted from NCEP/NCAR and analysis. Correlation and regression methods were used in this study. In order to better survey about perceptible water gradient changes and gradient changes of maximum of perceptible water has been calculated. Results showed that among the spatial factors, height has greatest impact on the spatial distribution of the maximum of perceptible water. Unlike many scientists who believe that by increasing the latitude perceptible water reduced, this rule is less In Iran atmosphere. However, most of the gradient changes of perceptible water occurred in some parts of the Zagros highlands, West and South West. The results of cycle analysis showed that the maximums of perceptible water in Iran have short term cycles between 2 to 4 years.

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 Drought defined as a climatic phenomenon with the humidity and rainfall shortage as compared with normal conditions. This phenomenon affects on all of aspects of human activities‌, severely. while, studies associated with this phenomenon on the basis of appropriate methods are very low. In the  present study, effort  has been made to analyze the drought state in Ardabil province by means of software system capabilities in MATLAB and SEPI index in two temporal scales of 6 and 12 months. The climatic data of synoptically stations of Ardabil were used, Parsabad and khalkhal countian in Ardabil province. Results of study show that SEPI index reflects the features of two SPI and SEI indices well. And also enters temperature in the studying of drought conditions as one of the effective parameters in changing of drought intensity. There‌fore, the investigation into drought with SEPI index is better than SPI index. Studies associated to drought on the basis of SEPI index shows that drought process is increasing in Ardabil province. Temperature also has an increasing flow with higher intensity. Longest temporal continuation of drought in province, has occurred in Parsabad station in temporal scale of 12 months, from June‌, 1998 to November, 1999 in 18 month period. The greatest percentage of drought occurrence is in Parsabad station and the minimum of that is observed in Khalkhal station.

 


[1] - Akbar Goldust: PhD student's of climatology in environmental planning Mohaggeg  Ardabil University

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The more exposure to Climate change / variability, the more vulnerability and a community with low adaptive capacity and high sensitivity is more vulnerable. Vulnerability reduction depends on adaptation policy and strategies. Designing and assessing these strategies require climate vulnerability (CV) measuring. To produce a new CV index, as a main propose of this study, first: The score of exposure factor for two five span years was calculated based on four synoptic stations data (Zabol, Zahedan, Iranshahr and Chabahar). Second: The scores of adaptive capacity and climate sensitivity were determined using all of the country census and yearbook data for 1385 and 1390. Third: Due to the nature and factors of vulnerability, a climate vulnerability index was developed based on the multiplicative-exponential model (CVIMEM). Forth: The index was calculated for the province and sub regions. The result shows, although the Sistan and Baluchistan (SB) adaptation capacity was increased, but because of the increased exposure and sensitivity, this province is 16.3% more vulnerable. Area with very high vulnerability label expanded from 57.5% to 100%, which reflects the spatial expansion of vulnerability over SB. The overall result is that vulnerability reduction needs for accurate and continuous measurement, on the increase adaptation capacity and mitigate climate sensitivity.

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According to WTTC (World Tourism and Travel Council) forecast tourism contribution of global GDP will be about 6000 billion dollar in 2020 and will create 300 million job Therefore, Tourism could be considered as multidimensional field that response to tourists needs with diversity interests and motivations. Shopping is the most necessity needs and it is the one popular activity for tourists. Border regions facilitate this activity because they have two potentials: appropriate geographical situation and non-favorite economic condition for host community. One of the best and most popular border cities in Iran country is Baneh that placed in the west boundaries between Iran and Iraq country. Region’s Economy  extremely depends on tourism shopping and majority of the host community directly or indirectly involved in that bussiness. Therefore, we can connect tourist's satisfaction with welfare and/or economical condition improvement. As, if it realize positively, region will develop in close future. This paper aims to evaluate performance of factors influencing tourists overall satisfaction in the Baneh border city due to important of development issue. Here, factors divided into two categories: shopping factors and tourism environmental factors. This research has followed a practical object, a descriptive approach with Field- Survey type in the method. Statistical population included tourists who have traveled to baneh city to purchase mainly. Matching to Morgan's table 400 tourist as statistical sample have selected and the questionnaire give to them randomly. The tools for gathering were base on two method, early data (from the field- survey study) and secondary data (from the library studies).   An analysis of the results revealed that, in thematic destinations, in addition to factors related to specific Theme (Subject) that they were more influencing, The tourism environmental factors also can  influence on the tourist total satisfaction . In sumery, this research aims to examine amount of satisfaction factors impact on the overall satisfaction. Finally, suggestions for relevant governmental institutes are provided.


 

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Nowadays, informal settlements has become a common challenge in many of cities particularly in Metropolises .On one hand, it is a spatial manifestation of social and economical inequalities and injustice at the local, regional and national levels. On the other hand it is the result of urban planning deficiency, absence of citizenship and inattention to social and economical needs of low income groups in urban development plans. In this research, in order to develop main strategies for enabling and regularizing Tabriz informal settlements by zoning the district one’s settlements of Tabriz municipality and identifying the low income and vulnerable zones, the social, economical, physical and environmental indicators have been used. Moreover, the data was analyzed by combining GIS and AHP models and three zones were reached. The research shows the socio-economical and environmental separation between vulnerable zones and others. The CDS strategy has been confirmed because of paying attention to participatory and community-based approach for enabling and regularizing informal settlements of Tabriz district one

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Drought is one of the most destructive natural disasters in human societies that cause irreparable impacts on agriculture, environment, society and economics. So, awareness of occurrence of droughts can be effective in reducing losses. In this study, in order to modeling and forecasting drought severity in a 37 year time period (1971-2007) in 21 meteorological stations, located in the cold semi-arid region of north-west Iran, artificial neural networks was used. The input data was annual rainfall data and annual drought precipitation index for all stations that 80% of the data (1971-2000) used for training the network and other 20% (2001-2007) used for testing it and in the next step drought severity predicted for the years 2008 to 2012 by the trained algorithm without using actual and existed data in this period. The appropriate structure for the network, based on Multi Layer Perceptron with three hidden layer, Back Propagation algorithm, Sigmoid transfer function and 10 neurons in middle layer. The results show that the artificial neural networks are well able to predict the non-linear relationship between rainfall and drought as it can simulate drought precipitation index values largely consistent with the real values with more than 97% regression and less than 5% error. So, drought can be predicted by this method in future and also it is useful in water resources management, drought management and climate change. 

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Global warming and the meaningful relationship between temperature and precipitation changes over different areas of the earth with temperature increment of the earth, are considered as the most important patterns of this century’s climate changes. Today, there is debate over climate change and global temperatures increasing. Damaging effects of this phenomenon on the planet is one of the most challenging issues in global scale. Because of this, the research ahead is done for the detection of global warming on maximum temperatures, monthly and periodic (hot and cold) as well. For this study, two groups of data, temperature data of 17 synoptic stations and corresponding amounts of data in global temperature anomalies were figured out over 60 years period of time (1951 to 2010). Goals, the Pearson correlation method for detecting relationships between data's, linear and polynomial regression for trend analysis time series data , To illustrate the correlation between the spatial distribution of temperature data with global warming stations nationwide Geostatistical model Finally, non-parametric test for detecting significant temperature change Man - Kendall were used. According to the results impact of global warming on the maximum temperature in the cold months like January, December and November should be much lower, and the highest in spring and summer season in the southern stations such as Abadan, Ahwaz and Shiraz seen. The above process is also evident in periods of hot and cold temperatures and the influence of the stations temperature of the warm period of global warming were higher than cold period and represent an increase in the temperature of the warm period of years. In between, the number of stations as well as Anzali, Urmia and Khorramabad stations in some months had the opposite influence of global warming and seen drop in the maximum temperatures of them. It is also observed in the results obtained from the analysis period. Station's maximum temperature trend change is represents significant in the summer month. Changes trend in the months of July, August and September, is significant that the process is more pronounced in the southern stations. Significant analysis trend changes have been taken in periods (cold and hot) in studied stations indicative of its significance in warm period.

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With the aim of development and reducing regional inequalities, regional planning is one of the most important subiects in developing countries. Regional planning requires the identification of the position of areas relative to each other in terms of their development. The aim of this study is to investigate and assess the level of Kermanshah province in terms of development indicators in order to find out the level of regional inequalities. The population of Kermanshah province is considered as statistical population. According to the investigated parameters of the research approach, it is “Descriptive - quantitative and analytical". This research is trying to use the 61 indicators based on 1390 almanac statistics and utilizes three statistical techniques of Vikor, Electre, SAW and integration of  results with Copeland  technique, classify existing inequalities in Kermanshah province. The results show that the Levels of development has been unbalanced and there is large gap and inequality among different cities of province in terms of development. The difference and inequality exist in various sectors of infrastructure such as economic, health, education, culture, social welfare and social. Only one city Gilangharb is developed and the rest of cities are semi- developed and deprived. To reduce inequalities in development in the province it is suggested that distribution of health, education and infrastructure indicators should be directed towards balanced growth and the index of infrastructure be emphasized more than the other indicators.                                            
 

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Agricultural sector has an important role in development of countries. One of the obstacles to development in this sector, especially in Iran is significant fragmentation of agricultural lands. The aim of this study is to assess the farmers’ willingness to participate in land consolidation project using structural equation modeling. The population of this study consists of all farmers of Meymeh County and its surrounding cities and villages and Niloofar-Abi cooperative of Vazvan city. Data were collected on a sample of 156 farmers through face-to-face interviews based on a comprehensive structured questionnaire. Before the survey, the reliability and validity of questionnaire was initially evaluated on a pre-test study respectively by using Cronbach’s alpha coefficient, expert’s judgment and Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) criteria. The results of this study show that the most important factors on farmers' willingness to participation are crop acreage and number of plots which respectively has the greatest positive and negative effect. The awareness of the farmers about benefit of consolidation project is another factor which has significant and positive impact on farmers' willingness. Furthermore, level of farmers schooling has no significant effect.

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Variation of snow cover area (SCA) in small to large scale catchment can be studied using MODIS snow products on daily to montly time step since the year 2000. However, one of the major problems in applying the MODIS snow products is cloud obscuration which limits the utilization of these products. In the current study, variation of SCA was investigated in Karoun basin, western part of Iran, using MODIS 8-day snow cover product (MOD10A2). More over in order to overcome the cloud barrier in application of snow cover products, a simultaneous employment of the images from both MODIS optical sensor and AMSR-E microwave sensor was recommended. Meeting our target, the combination of MODIS and AMSR-E daily images was exercised to accomplish snow cover area in daily interval and afterwards, a comparison was made between the result and those which had been obtained by the sole utilization of either of them while the weather had been either cloudy and not been overcast. Validation of snow cover gained by combined images was additionally compared with the discharge of one of the catchments existing in Karoun basin. The results demonstrate that regardless of the fact that microwave data, featuring a coarse spatial resolution, can penetrate the cloud cover, on average, AMSR-E images approximately show 16% more snow cover in comparison to MODIS images. The results also illustrate that the correlation existing between snow cover rate of AMSR-E and MODIS images during cloudless days, the difference of average snow cover area decreases from 16% to 5%. Moreover, the upshot of validation by the exercise of daily discharge data indicates that by possessing a correlation coefficient of 0.66, the correlation of snow cover and discharge in combined images features a higher accuracy in comparison to MODIS images with a correlation coefficient of 0.55.

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Sustainable development is an environmental concept appropriate to our era that nowadays in all of economic, social, environmental and physical-‌spatial aspects is considered and focused by everyone. In these times, global organizations that are working around the issues of sustainable development, emphasis on rural sustainable development, which seeks to improve rural living standards and welfare of the inhabitants of the villages, because at present time, the procedure of socio–economic variations accompanied by increasing migration of human groups is led to evacuation of villages. With attention to the importance of the subject and the increasing instability of the villages, present study was done for determining the effective factors on rural instability and measuring the intensity of this instability in Kaki District of Dashti Township. The research method is descriptive - analytical in which whole inhabited villages of Kaki District of Dashti Township were surveyed. In this regard, according to the number of households living in villages and using the Cochran formula, 255 questionnaires were calculated for questioning andthese questionnaires have been completed in the villages in proportion to the population of each village. In these questionnaires, 34 indicators related to the four dimensions of sustainable development (environmental, social, economic and physical-spatial) are considered. In order to determining instability intensity of the villages and their spatial analysis, is used AHP method in Expert Choice and ArcGIS software. Also SPSS software is used for statistical analysis. The results show that at the present time, all villages have various degrees of instability. In this regard, 65.8 percent of these villages have severe or very severe instability.  

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The subject of the study is to analysis pattern of Mahabad River channel. This area is located on the south of Uromia Lake. Rapid changing of its channels pattern is an important characteristics which the evaluation of these characteristics is necessary to any hmplementation of development projects. For this purpose, the morphological changes of river channel were recognized by the areal photographices and satellite imageduring different times periods. The relationship between effective variables on the channel pattern such as, discharge, slope, stream power,stream bank clay content and width of bed, and observed pattern changes were analyses. The results showed that formation of braising channels could be the result of accumulation of bank coarse materials and increasing of width to depth ratio. The pattern of the river changed to sinuosity at the downside of braiding channel.the increased discharge and more river bank resistance due to high clay content caused to river pattern changed from breading to sinocity.In the distance between Mahabad dam at the upstream and diversion dam at the downstream, the river pattern was changed to Anabaranching. Assessment and comparison of Arial photographs before and after of Mahabad dam construction revealed that these types of channels were developed recently. Reduction of peak flows and sediment deposition in the channel as the result of dam construction, prepared the essenssial conditions to form Anabrancing

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Precipitation is one of the most intractable elements. The oscillating behavior of the crucial environmental planning (explicit and tacit knowledge of the behavior), is the key variable. Spectrum analysis techniques to understand the behavior of overt or covert methods suitable for the extraction and analysis of climate oscillations with different wave lengths. The size range of the distribution variance across all wave lengths may provide time series. In this study, data from 37 stations Heleh and Mond watershed (both rain and synoptic) from its inception until 2011,  who had over 30 years of data, to analyze the cycle of annual rainfall, interest has been taken. So that the space is 3-2 year cycles in every area of study, the highest annual rainfall events are returned. On this basis, the Story of annual precipitation 95 percent for each of the stations under study and cycle meaningful estimate of the time series of basin data were extracted.

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The structure of urban resilience consists of four dimensions: social, economic, institutional and physical. In the desired situation, a resilient city has a strong local society with a dynamic and sustainable economy that is governed institutionally and institutionally in a participatory manner. As a result of these super-physical factors, the city is formed in a cohesive manner and no withering is observed at any point. The purpose of this study is to assess the resilience and stability of Semnan in the face of natural hazards (earthquake). The research method in this study is descriptive-analytical and its statistics and information have been obtained using a questionnaire. The statistical population of this study was citizens living in Semnan city. Using Cochranchr('39')s formula, a sample of 384 people was selected from them by random sampling method. To assess the validity (validity), using face validity, the opinions of related people were examined and its reliability was assessed using Cronbachchr('39')s test in the SPSS software environment equal to / 863. It was found to indicate high coordination and reliability of the data. In data analysis, descriptive and inferential statistical tests were used in Spss software. percentage; At the level of inferential statistics, Pearson correlation coefficient and sample titech test as well as neural network model were used to examine the relationship between variables. Findings showed that the socio-cultural dimension with an average rank of 2.59 and the physical dimension with an average rank of 3.05 and the economic dimension with an average rank of 2.17 and finally the institutional-organizational dimension with an average rank of 2.56 show the current situation of resilience in Semnan.

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The purpose of this study was to estimate the amount of sediment of Vanai River in Borujerd. In this research, the characteristics of the sub-basins of this river have been extracted first. These specifications include the physical characteristics of the sub-basins, including the area, the environment and length of the waterways, and the characteristics of the river flow, and its sediment content. In the following, multivariate linear regression, multilevel prefabricated neural network (MLP) and radial function-based neural network (RBF) models are used to model sediment estimation. After estimating the model, the mean square error index (RMSE) was used to compare the models and select the best model. Evidence has shown that initially the MLP's neural network model had the best estimate with the lowest error rate (90.44) and then the RBF model (151.44) among the three models. The linear regression model has the highest error rate because only linear relationships between variables are considered.

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Abstract
Iran is one of the most earthquake-prone countries in the world and its cities have suffered a lot due to this natural phenomenon. The purpose of this study was the spatial analysis of earthquake crisis management. The research method has been applied-developmental. The research area of ​​Khuzestan province and the statistical population included elites in the field of urban planning in Khuzestan province who were selected by targeted sampling method. There have also been two statistical tests. The results of statistical analysis showed that from the perspective of statistical individuals, proper crisis management (organizational structure, proper distribution of emergency services, manpower, equipment and information system) has a positive and significant effect on reducing mortality and financial vulnerability. Also, the results of Hot spot analysis showed that hot and earthquake-prone hotspots in Khuzestan province were mostly located in Behbahan, Masjed Soleiman and Andimeshk counties