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Showing 103 results for Model

Mr Ehsan Shahiri Tabarestani, Dr Hossein Afzalimehr,
Volume 23, Issue 71 (12-2023)
Abstract

One of the problems of controlling erosion and sedimentation in catchment areas is the lack of statistical data to accurately estimate the amount of sedimentation and erosion. In order to implement soil protection programs and determine methods to reduce sedimentation, it is necessary to estimate the total volume of annual sediment production. The purpose of this study is to estimate the erosion intensity and sedimentation of Babolroud catchment located in Mazandaran province using EPM and Fournier empirical methods and to determine the accuracy of these models. The results showed that Babolroud catchment is located on the moderate zone of sedimentation and the value of erosion rate is Z = 0.54. Also according to EPM method the sedimentation rate is . The highest amount of erosion is in the northern part of the catchment, which is due to the existence of Non-cultivable land use and erosive soil formations, including alluvial and marsh soils. In order to evaluate the accuracy of the results obtained from the empirical model, the observed information of the two sedimentation stations was used and the results indicate a relative average difference of 23.24% in the EPM model. Also, the results obtained from the Fournier method indicate the inefficiency of this method in estimating the Babolroud catchment due to the lack of consideration of the erosion potential of the area.

Fahimeh Shakeri, Gholamabbas Fallah Ghalhari, Hashem Akbari, Zahra Hejazizadeh,
Volume 24, Issue 72 (3-2024)
Abstract

In this research, the sensitivity of the meteorological elements (such as mean temperature, relative humidity and wind speed) to different physical parameterizations in the numerical forecast model (WRF) was evaluated to simulate the climate of the city and adjust the Urban Heat Island of the study area.To study urban environmental issues, the Urban Canopy Model (UCM) was coupled to the WRF model. Several experiments were performed to achieve optimal configuration for simulation in the period from 18-21 August 2016 in the stable atmospheric conditions in summer. Selection of the most appropriate configuration with the least error is proposed as an appropriate setting for urban climate simulations and the study of Urban Heat Island (UHI). Increasing surface reflections to reduce UHI in the range was applied. Two indices of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Bias Error (MBE) were used to evaluate the predictive performance of the model and its corresponding observational values. The results showed that in the province of Tehran, in general, all configurations estimate the air temperature and wind speed less than real and relative humidity more than the actual value. In Alborz province, all configurations estimate the air temperature and wind speed more than real and relative humidity less than real value. By increasing the reflection of urban levels, the mean temperature of Tehran and Alborz provinces decreases 0.6 and 0.2 ° C, respectively. Wind speed, especially in urban areas, increases somewhat. We also see an increase in relative humidity (especially in urban areas) in the studied areas.

Mr Jaefar Derakhshi, Dr Behroz Sobhani, Dr Saeed Jahanbakhsh,
Volume 24, Issue 72 (3-2024)
Abstract

In this study, the prediction of precipitation and temperature values using the general atmospheric circulation models during 1964-2005 is investigated. Climatic data including daily values of total precipitation and mean temperature were obtained from the Iranian Meteorological Organization. Considering the climate change scenarios RCP4.5, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 for the coming period 2010-2100 were evaluated under the canESM2 climate change model of Aharchai Basin. Due to the low accuracy of the general circulation models, the SDSM4.2 miniaturization model was used and the changes in precipitation and mean temperature parameters were simulated for future time periods. In this study, to calibrate the SDSM model, among the 26 large scale climate parameters (NCEP), on average, 3 parameters have the highest correlation with the mean temperature and 5 parameters have the highest correlation with the average precipitation in the Aharchai Basin. The results of climatic parameters prediction showed that simulation of climatic parameters mean temperature was performed with higher accuracy than mean precipitation values. The reason is that the precipitation data are not normal and unconditional. The results show that the basin temperature averaged more during the period 2070-2099 under the scenario RCP8.5 than the observations period of 1964-2005 and the basin precipitation during the period 2070-2099 under the scenario RCP2.6 showed the highest increase in the entire study period.
Mr Hamid Fakhimzade, Dr Hadi Sarvari, Dr Mohamadhadi Mahdinia, Dr Mahdi Mahmoodzade Vashan,
Volume 24, Issue 72 (3-2024)
Abstract

A city requires city brand and appropriate strategies for beneficiaries, especially tourists; hence, city development plans can affect the type of city brand orientations. Accordingly, this study was conducted to identify the effective factors to design structural equation modeling (SEM). SEM was employed to rank the factors and find the correlation between them using Forner-Larcker Matrix. This was an applied-correlational study in which, data were collected through convergent mixed methodology, library study, questionnaire, and Semi-structured interviews. Birjand was chosen as the research field and a statistical sample was chosen at descriptive statistics using purposive and snowball sampling methods. Accordingly, 19 subjects were selected from urban experts, and 381 tourists were chosen at the quantitative step using simple random sampling. findings obtained from interviews implied that some points should be considered for the city branding of Birjand. The factors include the significant militarily and academic impact of Birjand on historical aspect and service-based economy of the city, cultural capitals, and the arts that are forgetting, immigration, and implementing the development-driving plans. The research model indicated that city development plans had the highest positive effects on the landscape and mental image regarding city branding plans. Moreover, According to the correlation between components, the highest relationship was between mental image and landscape (0.66).

Dr Behrouz Sobhani, Dr Mehdi Aalijahan,
Volume 24, Issue 73 (6-2024)
Abstract


Today, fine dust and dust storms have become one of the important issues and problems of Iran and other regions of the world. This study is conducted to identify synoptic patterns of the dust storms in Ardabil Province (Iran) and monitor the origin and pathway of its places. The studied period is 34 years (1979-2013). The data used in this work are from synoptic stations of Ardabil province and the NASA’s upper atmosphere database. To achieve the goals of the study, the Environment to Circulation, Hierarchical Clustering Methods, and HYSPLIT model were used. According to the results, three patterns of geopotential height at 500 hPa levels were identified. Pattern No. 1 and 2 are almost similar to each other and represent the occurrence of a deep trough that formed from Central Europe and extended to the middle of the Red Sea. Based on these patterns, the study area is located in the East of this trough. The third pattern represents the occurrence of cut-of-low pressure blocking over the Black Sea and adjacent areas and placement of Ardabil province in the East trough of the formed blocking. The origin of dust in patterns 1 and 2 is the Eastern regions of Iraq and West of Iran while in pattern 3 is at 500 hPa level of the central areas of Iraq and at pressure levels of 850 and 1000 hPa of the central regions of Syria.
Keywords: Dust storm, Pattern extraction, synoptic analyses, HYSPLIT model, Ardabil province


Dr. Mohsen Aghayari Hir, Dr. Hossein Karimzadeh, Mrs. Nahid Rahimzadeh,
Volume 24, Issue 73 (6-2024)
Abstract


Access, plays an important role in rural development as there is a meaningful relationship between rural development and access to infrastructure services. Villages that have less access to essential services, especially transport, faced with a lot of structural and socio-economic constraints, which are obstacles to sustainable rural development. The present study seeks to examine the accessibility and the factors affecting it. Accordingly, it is considered with descriptive-analytic research method. The statistical population of the study, consisted of villages in the central District of Tabriz County (52 villages) that there needed data were gathered from rural municipals. After validity and reliability of the research, in order to evaluate accessibility, we used the Dematel technique and ANP, then to assess the role of different elements in accessibility of rural areas, we used SEM in Amos software. Initial results of Rural Accessibility Survey showed that the Mayan Sefli village had the highest accessibility and the final result of the research are determining the role of factors in rural accessibility based on factors such as distance from the city, service centers and social status of the village are more effective than other factors in accessibility.
Key words: accessibility, rural services, analytical network process, structural equation modeling, Tabriz County.
 


Dr Esmaiel Najafi, Dr Amir Safari, Dr Ezatoalah Ghavavati, Dr Amir Karam,
Volume 24, Issue 73 (6-2024)
Abstract


Geomorphology is related to the processes and forms of the earth's surface, and any human activity, including the construction of bridges, leads to quantitative and qualitative changes in the movement and displacement of materials and kinetic energy and affects the geomorphic system, is the concern and involvement of geomorphologists. Geomorphology, as a systematic science can also study and explain the environmental realities that have been objectified in the form of processes and forms in nature, and introduce their results and output spatially in the form of maps and models. The type of research is applied and the research method is descriptive-analytical and based on the results of the Ph.D. Thesis entitled "Geomorphological modeling of the construction of bridges in urban floodways (Case study: Tehran metropolis)". The results indicate the capability and application of geomorphology in modeling and optimal location and construction of bridges, in order to create more security and welfare of citizens, reduce costs and prevent financial and human losses due to the destruction and improper location of such structures in an urban floodway- river valleys and other natural environments. Also, this study, while enriching the literature of the field in question, has studied, explained, and conceptually modeled the role and application of geomorphology in the optimal location and construction of bridges in urban issues. 
Keywords: Geomorphology, Conceptual Model, urban floodway- river valleys, Bridge Construction.
 

Dr Hamid Reza Mohammadi, Me Mohsen Pakparvar,
Volume 24, Issue 73 (6-2024)
Abstract


In relation to the housing of the disadvantaged, the possibility of access to a suitable housing for every Iranian household in accordance with the household's needs in such a way that the housing concern does not exceed other areas of the household's life and stable and safe access to the household's housing is also guaranteed, showing the ideal vision of the housing sector in documentary studies, is related to disadvantaged groups. The purpose of this study is to achieve the set of strategies and the general form of realistic and effective programs in the field of housing support for the deprived and low-income groups, which, while determining the limits and type of government intervention in relation to housing and different economic groups, will make the target groups enjoy support programs faster. This study is based on the combined model of SWOT strategic analysis and QSPM strategic planning model and examines the findings of studies and the results of interviews with experts in the field of geography and urban planning. SWOT analysis showed that 1- Ignoring the lack of simultaneous use of the process of management and operation of low-income housing based on the participation of local social institutions and non-governmental organizations 2- Lack of necessary knowledge or disregard for the diversity of needs of the deprived and disregard for Special Characteristics of Target Groups 3. The imbalance between the benefits of different individuals in different groups in relation to support programs has led to the inefficiency of the policies of the deprived and the enjoyment of supportive housing for this group. "Empowerment programs" and "Attracting participation by exploiting local capacity and internal capacities by developing and diversifying empowerment", along with a general balancing policy to increase capacity in non-governmental sectors based on household participation. Faster households have support programs Provides housing and participation of all stakeholders in planning.
 Keywords: development programs, government policies, housing for the deprived, SWOT analysis, QSPM model.
 
Sanam Afaridi, Fereshte Ahmadi, Ali Soltani, Mahmood Mohamdi,
Volume 24, Issue 73 (6-2024)
Abstract


Optimal condition of accessibility and rapid, easy, and safe travel to health_ treatment land uses can be performed by the systematic analysis of transportation sub-systems like behavior. Developed countries are in essential need of proper transportation system for better accessibility. This paper aims to develop model, considering mode chains as well as the individual characters. This study benefits the analytic and quantitative research methods in developing mode choice model to evaluate the movement pattern of travel to health care centers in Shiraz central district (district 1). Each mode is the dependent variable whereas the socioeconomic characters are the independent variables. Filled questionnaire and geographical information system is used in collecting data. To generate the model, multinomial logit model was used that shows public transport like metro and bus are not the popular modes in access to hospitals. Movement pattern cognition in accessibility to special urban land uses, has an efficient role in urban policies and planning, which can be generalized and indigenize to healthcare travel behavior in other geographical areas. Results show that car ownership will increased the private car travel rate 8 times according to beta coefficient.. Taxi is the mode which is used in all three travels. People with lowest range of income and education use bus as their mode. Besides metro travel also has significant relation with low level of income and increase the travel rate 9 times.
Keywords: logit Model, Hospital, vehicle, travel mode, Shiraz City.





Tooba Alizadeh, Majid Rezaei Banafsheh, Hashem Rostamzadeh, Gholamreza Goodarzi, Hedar Maleki, Hamzeh Alizadeh,
Volume 24, Issue 74 (9-2024)
Abstract

The aim of this study was to identify the epicenter and co-occurrence factors of dust storm wave from 1 to 3 November 2017 in Kermanshah. To investigate the synoptic conditions of the causes of this phenomenon, from the European Central Center (ESMWF) mid-term weather forecast data set with a resolution of 0.125 degrees of arc including, geopotential height, omega, sea level pressure, orbital and meridional components, humidity. The Lagrangian method of HYSPLIT model was used to orient the source of dust particles. in this study, dust storm WRF-chem was simulated using a paired numerical weather forecasting model. Finally, through the processing of MODIS satellite images, its scope was determined. Examination of HYSPLIT tracking maps shows that two general paths for dust transfer to the area can be identified. 1- The northwest-southeast route, which passes through dust cores formed in the deserts of Iraq and Syria, transports dust to the western half of Iran. 2- Southwest to west of Iran and Kermanshah, which is the main source of dust on November 2 and 3, The source of the particles is Kuwait, northern Saudi Arabia and part of Iraq. The spatial distribution of the dust interpreted by the MODIS sensor images is consistent with the spatial distribution of the dust concentration simulated by the WRF-chem model.
Mana Taheri, Mohammad Saied Izadi, Hamid Majedi, Zahra Sadat Saeedeh Zarabadi,
Volume 24, Issue 74 (9-2024)
Abstract

According to the fact that place identity is influenced by various social, physical, semantic, functional, and natural factors, each of these dimensions has multiple indicators with complex internal relationships; Measuring and evaluating it is a fundamental and complex issue. Therefore, the aim of this study is to "provide a combined model for measuring the identity of place in urban spaces." To achieve this goal, quantitative methods have been used. First, the expert questionnaire with a sample size of 19 people was analyzed in the form of a combination of DEMATEL model and Analytical network process, then the questionnaire of space users with a volume of 384 samples in 12 urban spaces was analyzed by TOPSIS model. The results show that despite the decline in identity in recent decades, Tehran Bazaar as the central core of Tehran's historical district still has an acceptable level, but the further away from the Bazaar, the different dimensions of social, physical, functional, natural and the semantic identity is declining. Also, from a methodological point of view, it can be said that the combined DANP-TOPSIS model is a suitable model for measuring the various dimensions of place identity in an integrated way.
 
Mrs Mahnaz Saber, Dr Bromand Salahi, Dr Abbas Mofidi,
Volume 24, Issue 74 (9-2024)
Abstract

In this study, the spatiotemporal variations of evapotranspiration (ET) were investigated in the southern part of the Aras River catchment. For this purpose, the ET networked data of FLDAS Noah model with horizontal resolution of 0.1 * 0.1 degree were used for a period of 38 years (2019-1982). After validating the data, the average annual ET values ​​for the region were determined first. Then the monthly and seasonal distribution of the parameter were analyzed spatially. Subsequently, ET variations and anomalies were evaluated year to year. Also, the spatial distribution of the occurrence frequency of ET was investigated by considering the absolute thresholds of 50, 80, 100 and 120 mm for the Aras basin. The results show that the annual ET in the east of the basin is higher than the west of the basin. In the seasonal scale, spring and summer have the highest ET values, respectively. In the monthly scale, Mayو June, April and March had the highest ET values, respectively. In contrast, the autumn and winter months have the lowest average ET values. Also, the whole basin during the study period has experienced three distinct periods of ET changes that in the eastern and western parts of the basin, despite the same behavior in the second and third periods, a significant difference was observed in the first period. The results also indicate the existence of positive anomalies after 2002 in the whole basin, the highest values ​​occurred in 2018 in the west of the basin. The study of the frequency of occurrence of absolute ET thresholds on the basin shows the high frequency of ET occurrence at all thresholds in the east of the basin. A study of nearly 4 decades of ET values ​​in the Aras River Basin shows an increase in ET values ​​over the last two decades over the entire basin, which can be attributed to the occurrence of global warming.

Dr Mohammad Ebrahim Afifi,
Volume 24, Issue 75 (12-2024)
Abstract

Among the natural hazards, without a doubt, the flood is known as a natural disaster. In this research, Shannon entropy model was used to prepare a flood sensitivity map. First, 34 flood watersheds were selected from Firoozabad basin, and then these 34 points were classified into two groups. With 22 points, 65 percent of the points for training and modeling, and 12 points, 35 percent of the locations that were not used in modeling were used for validation. First, a map of the status of the floods was developed and Then, 10 factors, slope, tilt, lithology, land use, NDVI, SPI, TWI, altitudes, rainfall and distances from the river were selected as flood factors in Firoozabad basin. Prioritizing the effective factors in the occurrence of flood by Shannon entropy index showed that the NDVI layers (2.03), rainfall (0.00), distance from the river (1.89), SPI (385.1), elevation classes (999 (0/19), gradient with weight (0,932), lithology (478/0), TWI (379/0), and land use (280/0), respectively (0/184) have the highest and the least impact Flood events. Based on the results of the ROC curve, the predicted surface area under the curve with 35% of the validation data is equal (91.42%) and for the success rate with 65% of the equal education data (92.53%).
Hossein Sharifi, Mehrdad Ramezanipour, Leila Ebrahimi,
Volume 24, Issue 75 (12-2024)
Abstract

Today, human settlements around the world are exposed to natural hazards for a variety of reasons. These risks, which bring with them a lot of human and financial losses, require preventive measures. The purpose of this study is to investigate the development of urban space in order to deal with environmental hazards in Noor city. The method of this research is also descriptive. Data collection is using library and documentary studies and questionnaires. In order to analyze the questionnaires using ANP method and fuzzy logic method, evaluate each of the criteria and determine their importance coefficients. Based on the results, spatial assessment was performed using ArcGis software and hazard zones were identified. According to the results of risk potential zoning, the northern and southern areas of the city have the highest risk potential. To predict the development of residential areas, the combined Markov chain model and cellular automation were used. The results showed that the continuous expansion of built areas in recent decades has caused rapid changes in land use and the built areas of the city has increased from 2.43% of the total area in 2010 to 3.68% in 2019. The results also showed that regardless of the natural hazards, the built-up areas will increase and as a result of urbanization, the built-up areas will be more prone to high-risk lands. However, if sustainable development policies are fully implemented, cities and built-up areas will be able to maintain their development spaces from high-risk areas for the benefit of the city and its residents.
Saeed Jahanbakhshasl, Ali Mohammadkhorshiddoust, Fatemeh Abbsighasrik, Zahra Abbasighasrik,
Volume 24, Issue 75 (12-2024)
Abstract

 Assessing and predicting future climate change is of particular importance due to its adverse effects on water resources and the natural environment, as well as its environmental, economic and social effects. Meanwhile, rainfall is also an important climatic element that causes a lot of damage in excess conditions. West Azerbaijan Province is no exception. The aim of this study is to model and predict 30 years of rainfall in West Azerbaijan province. The statistical period studied is 32 years (2019-1987). Selected stations in the province include Urmia, Piranshahr, Takab, Khoy, Sardasht, Mahabad and Mako stations. Average slider time series models, Sarima (seasonal Arima), Health Winters were used for analysis and prediction and also linear regression and Mann-Kendall test were used to determine the data trend. The results show an increasing trend of precipitation in Urmia, Piranshahr, Khoy, Sardasht and Mako stations and a decreasing trend in Takab and Mahabad stations. According to the results of comparing the models used, the Health Winters model with the least error in the absolute mean of deviations, mean squared deviations and the percentage of absolute mean errors was introduced as the best precipitation forecasting model for West Azerbaijan province. province.                                     [A1] 


Mr Mohamad Reza Hatafi Ardakani, Dr Mphammad Hosein Saraei, Dr Mohamad Mahdi Karimnejad, Dr Seyed Ali Almodaresi, Dr Saideh Moayed Far,
Volume 24, Issue 75 (12-2024)
Abstract

One of the aspects of sustainable urban development and balanced physical development is in line with ecological and socio-economic environmental conditions. In the last decades of the twentieth century, despite many efforts in the field of sustainable spatial development of cities, this issue still remains an important challenge for geographers, urban planners, architects and urban planners. In many cities in developing countries, rapid urbanization and increasing urban population have exacerbated environmental hazards. This is doubly important in small cities. Because physical development, in addition to land use change, has met the basic needs of urban society, including the provision of safe and sufficient water, green space per capita, urban waste management and environmental pollution. The present study is applied in terms of purpose and analytical in terms of method. The statistical population consisted of university professors and experts in the field of research in Ardakan who were selected by purposive sampling. They were selected to conduct and implement the research. In order to achieve the research objectives, using a new analytical methodology of interpretive structural modeling (ISM), the relationships between the factors were determined and analyzed in an integrated manner. Finally, using MICMAC analysis, the factors were analyzed according to the impact and effectiveness on other components. The results of the interpretive structural model of the factors affecting the inner development of the city showed that the obtained model includes three levels and the results showed that the managerial and physical factors are the most basic factors affecting the inner development of the city that should be addressed in the first place. In other words, any action to pave the way for the internal development of the city, requires attention to these factors along with other factors

Dr Rahimberdi Annamoradnejad, Mr Mohamad Soleymani, Mrs Fatemeh Akbari,
Volume 24, Issue 75 (12-2024)
Abstract

Today, housing has found a concept beyond a shelter and plays an important role in how the physical quality of cities. In fact, one of the most important ways to know the status of housing in the housing planning process is to use housing indicators. These indicators, which indicate the quantitative and qualitative status of housing in any period of time, can be considered as a suitable guide to improve housing planning for the future. Therefore, the present study was conducted with the aim of leveling the neighborhoods of Bojnourd city based on housing indicators. The research is descriptive-analytical in nature and applied according to its purpose. The method of collecting information in the form of documents is library. In this study, 11 indicators related to housing quality were used to rank neighborhoods, and the Waspas model was used to rank neighborhoods. The statistical population of the study includes 42 neighborhoods of Bojnourd. Based on the results, it was found that half of the neighborhoods (22 neighborhoods) of Bojnourd  are in a favorable and completely desirable housing condition, in contrast to 28% of the city neighborhoods are in a relatively favorable condition that the number of population at this level is equal to It is 31% of the total population of the city. Finally, there is the unfavorable housing situation, which includes 8 neighborhoods of the city. The total population of these neighborhoods is equal to 17% of the city's population, which is located in an area of ​​973 hectares.
Mr Arsalan Mehrvarz, Dr Agil Madadi, Dr Fariba Esfandyari, Mr Masoud Rahimi,
Volume 25, Issue 76 (3-2025)
Abstract

The morphology of river is one of the issues in geomorphology, engineering and river management. The marginal sections of the rivers have always been subject to the riverbed due to the special social and economic conditions. The Dare Ourt River is one of the permanent rivers in Ardabil province. In recent years, there have always been floods and changes in the morphology of the duct. In this study, the Dare Ourt river was analyzed using Rosegen model at levels one and two. The main data required for this study include: 1: 2000 river topographic maps, hydrometric data and boundary conditions (Ardabil Regional Water Authority). The HEC-RAS hydrodynamic model was also used to more accurately extract the main indices of the Rosegen model. The results showed that most parts of the river have a C6c type with alluvial substrate and other dominant types observed in the four studied ranges include B6c-E6b-F6-D types. Also, the results of field visits indicate a change in the type of river type D range 4 from type C to type F, which is difficult due to the fact that reconstruction and restoration of the river in type F is difficult. Recommended restrictions on the type F is prevented from turning the river.
Mohammad Ali Jamalizadeh, Abbas Masoudi,
Volume 25, Issue 76 (3-2025)
Abstract

Ancient cities have always had a fundamental difference from today's cities, a difference that was well felt in their body and overall structure, in such a way that they can be well distinguished from today's cities. This difference, which is itself influenced by economic, political, cultural and social conditions, has had more or less changes in the structure of cities, can represent two types of city growth. Organic growth is a continuous and clear growth that made the form subservient to its function, and in contrast to that, the dark and discrete form of the global cities of the modern era. This project has tried to answer the question of whether it is possible to use the characteristics and the way of formation of ancient cities in today's world by studying the shape of the city throughout the past history until today. Or at least, is it possible to achieve a favorable result from the integration of some characteristics of these cities with today's cities? Based on this, in this project, the form of cities from the past to the present during three historical periods before Islam, after Islam and the modern era, and on the other hand, limiting the issue to the way of establishing government centers in the central desert of Iran using the comparative method- Induction has been discussed according to the assumptions of the research. The results showed that the first and second hypotheses have worked more effectively in more unsuccessful experiments, and on the other hand, the third hypothesis has worked more colorfully in more successful experiments, and on the other hand, since the degree of realization of the third hypothesis in the experiment Kerman's success rate is 0.100 and in unsuccessful experiences it is 0. Perhaps this hypothesis can be considered as a relatively superior and preferable hypothesis to check the success rate of related projects.

 
Mr Milad Khayat, Ms Atefeh Bosak, Dr Zahra Hejazizadeh,
Volume 25, Issue 76 (3-2025)
Abstract

Using urban growth and development modeling, it is possible to draw a development trend appropriate to the city's position according to environmental and natural factors and population attraction. The purpose of this study is to represent a model of urban development in Shushtar that can be used as a felicitous tool to analyze the complex processes of urban development. To achieve this goal, two databases consist of urban land use maps for educational, medical, habitation, etc and Landsat satellite images for major land uses such as rivers, barren areas, forests, etc were used by GIS and MATLAB software environment in three time periods 1991, 2004 and 2014. Existing urban land use maps were updated by using Landsat satellite imagery after digitization. Then the effective parameters in urban development were entered as inputs with the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference algorithm (ANFIS). in order to evaluate the performance of the proposed method, training for 1991 and 2004 was performed. the result of urban development forecasting using the algorithm was compared with the current situation in 2014. The results are very close to reality and with an accuracy of 93.7%. The land use change map, which is the result of the change detection process, can be prepared based on multi-time remote sensing images and combined with urban user maps, and the relevant consequences examined. The use of intelligent algorithms in this research has allowed us to execute modeling with high accuracy. The results are satisfactory and this development was predicted for the coming years.
 

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