Showing 99 results for Analysis
Dr Iran Salehvand, Dr Amir Gandomkar, Dr Ebrahim Fatahi,
Volume 20, Issue 59 (12-2020)
Abstract
Rainfall prediction plays an important role in flood management and flood alert. With rainfall information, it is possible to predict the occurrence of floods in a given area and take the necessary measures. Due to the fact that the three months of January, February and March are most floods and most precipitation is occurring this quarter, this study aimed to investigate the factors affecting precipitation and modeling of this quarter. For precipitation modeling, the monthly rainfall data of the Hamadid and Baranzadeh station in the statistical period (1984-2014) for 30 years as a dependent variable and climatic indexes, large-scale climatic signals including sea surface temperatures and 1000 millimeter temperatures Altitude of 500 milligrams, 200 milligrams of omega and climatic elements have been used as independent variables. Due to the nonlinear behavior of rainfall, artificial neural networks were used for modeling. Factor analysis was used to determine the best architecture for entering the neural network. For prediction of precipitation, the data that showed the most relationship with precipitation was used in four patterns, in January the fourth pattern with entropy error was 045/0, the number of input layers was 91, the best makeup was 15-1, and the correlation coefficient was 94% Was. In February, the third pattern with a correlation coefficient of 97%, entropy error, was 0.36. Percentage, number of input units was 8 units, and the best type of latency layout was 10-1. The precipitation of March with all patterns was high predictive coefficient. The first pattern with entropy error was 0.038, the number of input units was 67, the hidden layer arrangement was 17-1, the correlation coefficient was 98%.
Mrs. Nasibeh Baharvandi, Dr. Firouz Mojarrad, Dr. Jafar Masompour,
Volume 20, Issue 59 (12-2020)
Abstract
The heat wave is a long period of warm climate, compared to the expected conditions in a region over a certain period of the year. Heat waves cause mortality, disease and various problems in different fields of transportation, agriculture, production and energy. It is very important to study the changes in spatial and temporal patterns of these waves to understand the causes of the incident and confront them. In the present study, using the "Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily" (HWMId), which takes into account both the intensity and the wavelength of heat, the heat waves of Iran between 1985 and 2015 have been analyzed in terms of spatial and temporal distribution. For this purpose, using the maximum daily temperature data of 44 synoptic stations of the country and on the basis of the threshold of the 90th percentile, the heat waves greater than or equal to three days were identified at each station. After applying the HWMId on the days of each heat wave, the magnitude of each wave was calculated. Then, the average number and magnitude of all waves, as well as the most severe ones, were calculated in annual and seasonal scales and the corresponding maps and charts were drawn up. The results of the study showed that the highest number of heat waves occurs in the western part of the Zagros Mountains and then the Kavir Plain; while the maximum magnitude of heat waves belong to the south-east and central parts of the country. Autumn and then winter season have a high share of the most severe heat waves during the study period; while the spring and summer heat waves are relatively weaker, and are more limited in terms of expansion. The most severe heat waves during the study period have occurred in the winters of 2008 and 2010. The number and magnitude of heat waves in the country is increasing significantly. The largest increase in the number belongs to the summer and the magnitude belongs to the winter.
Shamsi Sadat Mir Asadollahi, Sadraldin Motavali, Gholam Reza Janbaz Ghobadi,
Volume 20, Issue 59 (12-2020)
Abstract
Natural disasters are a set of harmful events that are natural origin that sometimes human factors are also effective in exacerbating. In the same vein strengthening the social and economic component and after that resiliency can play an important and effective role in reducing flood damage. This research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive –analytical and field nature. Survey method and data gathering tool were closed questionnaires, the analysis method is based on correlation and regression test. The statistical population includes citizens living around the river and flood areas that 383 people selected as sample and the questionnaire was distributed by cluster sampling among respondents, according to research finding , the average social resilience 1/60 , average economic aberration ( the amount of damage ) 4/53 ,average capacity with ability to compensate 8/69 , eventually average return to appropriate condition 4/67 .in the test section, hypotheses are determined according to the result of the regression test and correlation which has a significant relationship between urban and urban spatial and social dimensions. Strengthen local organs and organizations in a decentralized state , one of the important ways to increase the social participation of citizens of Gorgan during the crisis.by providing people's participation and strengthening the people's economic ability when natural hazards occur including flood, the initiative of the people is strengthened and the scope for reducing the damage caused by the flood is reduced . people are faced with real and tangible issues with the executive and so on their gap crisis management and conflicts of interest will diminish.
H Hossain Asakereh, M Mehdi Doustkamian, M Mohammad Darand,
Volume 21, Issue 60 (3-2021)
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to investigate and analyze turbulence, fluctuations and jumps of Iranian regions. For this purpose, environmental data has been gathered in two parts. In the first part of the data, the results of the interpolation of the daily precipitation observations of 1434 stations of climate and climate were used from the beginning of 1340 to 1383. After the formation of a database to identify the Iranian regions, a cluster analysis was used on average data and annual and monthly rainfall variation coefficients. Silhouette analysis has been used to validate the Iranian rainy areas. In order to investigate disturbances, mutations and fluctuations in Iran's rainy areas, this study was carried out. The results of cluster analysis indicate that Iran's peripheral areas are divided into six classes. In the meantime, the Caspian region (area 4) has the highest rainfall and the lowest coefficient of variation. The distribution of rainfall regime in each of the six areas shows that Iran's precipitation regime is more frequent in winter and spring and sometimes in autumn. Investigation and analysis of rainfall turmoil has shown that rainfall, except in the 4th district (Caspian region), in other areas of distribution of rainfall occurred along with disturbance. Although most disturbances occur in the zagros area, the highest sequence of disturbances is related to the fifth load region. The least sequence of disturbances occurred in the central and eastern part of the country. The results of mutation analysis and fluctuations indicate that rainfall disturbances, except in the early years of precipitation regions two and five in other regions of the other regions, have no significant mutation, while short-term fluctuations of 3-5 years on rainfall Each of the six domains has dominated.
Mohsen Saghaei,
Volume 21, Issue 60 (3-2021)
Abstract
Abstract In present century the air transportation has had a very important role in relations between different countries of the world ,as exchanging of culture, showing the economical and military power and speeding the vital affairs of a country and in this case airports form a very critical role in the Air Transportation system An airport is the most infrastructural part of the transportation industry in each country. Therefore, recognizing the problems of this sector of the aviation industry is effective on expediting activities related to the transportation of passengers, the development of the flight network, the growth of the physical airport, reduction in air accidents and problems caused by the proximity to residential areas (colliding with residential areas and noise pollution). In this regard, the aim of the present study is to investigate the problems of Mehrabad International Airport as the most important airport for domestic flights from the aerodrome point of view and the flight network based on standard indices of the national aviation industry. Therefore, among the experts of the aviation industry (pilots, officials and personnel working at Mehrabad Airport), 240 individuals were selected as the sample and a researcher made questionnaire was distributed among them. The application of factor analysis model and SPSS and Lisrel software revealed that the most important problems of Mehrabad Airport are proximity to residential areas, causing noise pollution for residents around the airport, adjacent to the military airport, lack of proper distance from other airports, and its role as flight origin for domestic flights in the Iran’s national airline, totally explain 83.79 % of the common variance. Other variables have not been able to justify significant variance.
Dr Elham Hatami Golzari, Dr Ahmad Mirza Kouchak Khoshnevis, Dr Qader Bayzidi, Dr Foad Habibi,
Volume 21, Issue 60 (3-2021)
Abstract
Persistent spaces and phenomena over time and load and become part of collective memories. In this way, paying attention to the durability of space design increases the sense of belonging to space, in this case space does not belong only to the present. Considering the importance of sustainability, the purpose of this study is to identify the factors affecting the survival of urban spaces, with emphasis on the multiplication of effective daily life in three areas of the Tabriz market (Grand mosque, Rasteh bazar, and Saheb-ol-amr square). The research method is a descriptive-analytic study used for collecting information using documentary and field (survey) method. Also, in this research, in addition to applying the qualitative method for analyzing the causes of durability in the studied areas, quantitative method of analysis of variance was used to investigate the durability of urban spaces in the studied areas. The findings of the research indicate that within the boundaries of the Grand mosque, the spirituality factor (0.376), socioeconomic and functional (0.352), in the range of Rasteh bazar of the identity factor (0.314) and within the range of Saheb-ol-amr square, the factor of spirituality (0.327) and identity (0.305) is the most important reason for the survival of the studied areas. The results also show that the various components of everyday life have oddities that, while repeated in the daily life cycle, are linear (progressive, regressive, and fixed), which in two parts are all in part and in part In general, they affect the survival and decline of spaces. In the meantime, the approaches and cultural components derived from the whole are in part like the rituals and cultures of a community, have and will have a significant impact on the survival and increase of durability of spaces. Therefore, the continuation of rituals and cultural ceremonies in the studied areas can provide a lasting space for these spaces.
Dr Mostafa Amirfakhriyan, ,
Volume 21, Issue 61 (6-2021)
Abstract
Identity, as a complex concept, influenced by a variety of factors, makes one thing distinct and unique. Meanwhile, the characteristics of the environment, habits, worldview, cultural characteristics, etc., have a growing influence on the formation of these indices of identity. In other words, this study seeks to investigate the hypothesis of the difference in attitudes of inhabitants of the eastern and western parts of Mashhad towards urban identity indices and, finally, whether the distinction is observable or not? The basis of this study is based on quantitative methods that have been used for research purposes, along with qualitative methods. The output of this discussion is to achieve the identity of the city and its classification according to the purpose of the study. But in the small part, the study method is based on the use of differentiation and logistic models to show the type and level of differences between the eastern and western parts of Mashhad. Based on this, the rank of indicators of urban identity components was obtained in the form of a questionnaire in two categories of eastern regions (regions 4, 5 and 6) and western regions (including 1, 9 and 11) from the residents' perspective. The completed questionnaires were entered into the statistical database and analyzed using statistical software such as Excel and Spas. Study shoes that: 1- Regarding the formic index, studies show that variables such as high buildings, traditional architecture and natural form of place are variables that cause segregation of residents of eastern and western parts of Mashhad. 2- The results in Function indices also indicate that variables of vibrant places, places with activities, boarding times, places with different uses, and safe places are meaningful. 3- Finally, regarding the semantic indices, the effective and differentiating variables in the eastern and western regions of Mashhad, including two variables of understanding the sense of pilgrimage and understanding the characteristics of Islamic culture. Accordingly, it can be said that the attitudes of residents of the studied areas are different from those related to the sense of pilgrimage and the characteristics of Islamic culture in their. the end
Sadegh Besharatifar, Kohdadd Mobinizadeh,
Volume 21, Issue 61 (6-2021)
Abstract
The present research is applied and its method is descriptive-analytical and correlational. For data collection using documentary and field methods, using service and socio-economic indicators as well as using quantitative models and statistics models Space is in the year 1397. The purpose of the research is to analyze and evaluate the spatial inequalities in utilization of urban services in Abadan oil. The results show that the economically-socially developed districts and the distribution of urban services are mainly central areas around the refinery dependent on the oil industry, which are merely due to the dependence on the oil company employees and the support of the oil company and the standards and privileges required therein Most of the indicators are necessary and, in the opposite direction, the other parts of the city, which have been created organically as a result of the activities of the oil industry, lack or are deprived of the necessary facilities and services. From other research results, there is a positive, strong and significant relationship between economic and social development with the development of urban services in Abadan city, so that the existence of planned oil industry sectors that are both economically and socially progressive, both in terms of physical and service Planned areas and the existence of marginal areas, especially in eastern areas of Abadan, which are both socially and economically weak and vulnerable, and in terms of physical development, have been less concerned with urban management, the effect of this form of unfavorable and unfair distribution of indicators Urban services lead to some sort of separation And spatial inequalities been in Abadan
Sayyed Mohammad Hosseini, Fakhry Sadat Fateminiya,
Volume 21, Issue 61 (6-2021)
Abstract
In this study, used the data of the Modis satellite. Satellite in the province of Hamadan for a period of 15 years to study and monitor the status of the leaf area index. The leaf area index data were analyzed. After extraction from the Modus website, coding was done in software and then extracted from the maps. Finally, the annual time series of leaf area index was obtained and its relation with rainfall and average temperature during these years. In order to investigate better, the cells above the one representing a better condition and higher leaf area density. In this regard, the years 2002, 2008 and 2011 were (0.01, 0.03, and 0.03%) of the lowest pixels higher than 1 and 2016 with 0.24 and 2014, 2009 and 2010 with 0.07 pixels higher than 1, the highest number of pixels. The common aspect of all years shows that in terms of pixels above the common places, all the years: the southern Hamadan gardens in the south of the Moradbeyk Valley, the Nahavand West fields, the south-east Malayer Gardens, the protected area Lashgar in the south-east of Malayer. The only difference seen in different years is the number of pixels. Finally, the time series of the data were the highest in 1389 and the lowest level of leaf area in the years 1381 and 2008.
Asal Falak, Reza Boran, Farideh Asadian,
Volume 21, Issue 62 (9-2021)
Abstract
This study aimed to investigate the temporal-spatial and synoptic features of thunderstorms in southwest of Iran (Khuzestan, Chaharmahal & Bakhtiari and Kohkiluyeh & Boyerahmad Provinces) It was compiled using volatility indices during the period 1985-2015. Results of Frequency Analysis of Thunderstorms at Dezful Station with 479 cases the highest frequency and Ramhormes with 252 days had the lowest frequency. In terms of seasonal distribution, spring was the most abundant with 39%. On a monthly basis, April had the lowest frequency with 21% and August with only 2 cases. In terms of thunderstorms the highest frequency of thunderstorms with no thunder was 21 percent. Synoptic analysis: Most of the time there is a nave (at level 500) or low pressure in the west of the region, east of the Mediterranean Sea with its tabs clockwise. From the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf, they entered the south, southwest, and west of Iran On the other hand, the high-pressure system on the Gulf of Aden in the east of the region is round in the clock It has injected moisture, especially at a level of 850 millibars. Interaction between the two systems over the course of the day, It has injected moisture from three sources of the Mediterranean Sea, the Red Sea and then the Persian Gulf into the rising systems of the region. The low-pressure counterclockwise movement of the eastern Mediterranean, Along with the high-altitude clock movement over the Gulf of Aden, it has injected moisture at levels of 850 to 700 degrees.
Mina Farokhi Someh, Shahrivar Rostaei, Rasoul Ghorbani,
Volume 21, Issue 62 (9-2021)
Abstract
Today, given the rapid growth of the world's population and its focus on cities, access to quality housing by urban dwellers is an essential component of influencing the long-term outlook of human communities. At the same time, considering the widespread impacts of housing on urban environments and on the economic, social and physical life of the city and its citizens, it is important to identify the factors that influence the choice of place of residence and housing. The residence has been emphasized on housing features. The type of research was applied and descriptive-analytical in nature; the method of data collection is library and field (questionnaire). The study population consisted of 384 households living in Tabriz metropolitan area. Then, tests (descriptive and inferential statistics) will be used and finally by diagnostic analysis using SPSS 22 and GIS software will analyze the relationships between variables. The results showed that demographic and lifestyle indices affect residence and housing choice and when demographic characteristics are combined with lifestyle, the choice of residence by the households is examined based on differences. Individual and lifestyle are important. Also, based on the results of the research, selection of residence and housing has a significant relationship with access to business centers, childcare centers, cultural centers, pedestrian access, parking and home warning cameras.
Nafise Marsousi, Majid Akbari, Nazanin Hajipour, Vahid Boustan Ahmadi,
Volume 21, Issue 63 (12-2021)
Abstract
According the increasing population, especially the urban population in the world and increasing environmental pollution caused by it, The need for urban planning and management approaches based on indicators such as Healthy Cities approach seems inevitable. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the efficiency and ranking of healthy city indicators through 36 indicators (socioeconomic, health services, environmental and health care). research method applied research is descriptive, analytic and development. To analyze the data from the non-parametric linear programming technique of data envelopment analysis, cross ineffective, models and software Dea slover Shannon entropy is used. The geographic area of this study is Khuzestan province and its statistical population is 22 cities according to the census of 2016. The results of this research show that in terms of relative efficiency of Ahwaz city due to the centrality of the province and the availability of infrastructure and sanitary services with a relatively high distance with the highest performance and high level of performance was in the first rank. And the cities of Dezful, Shosh, Khorramshahr, Shoshtar, Abadan, Masjed Soleyman and Behbahan were selected as semi-efficient cities. Finally, it can be concluded that in terms of having the indicators of the healthy city, most of the cities of the province are Inefficient (64%).
Mrs Elaheh Asgari, Dr Mohammad Baaghideh, Dr Majid Hosseini, Dr Alireza Entezari, Dr Asghar Kamyar,
Volume 21, Issue 63 (12-2021)
Abstract
Understanding the main components of the watershed water basin and analyzing their hydrologic behavior are among the key components of any planning and management procedures in the field of water resources engineering. Today, the need to use modern technologies in hydrological modeling of watersheds has been discussed more than before. The purpose of this study is the simulation of hydrological components in various land use categories in the catchment area of the Dez river basin. Since the tool used in the research is the SWAT model and the SUFI-2 algorithm, the database used include a range of input data. In order to determine the level of sensitivity of the model to the input parameters, global sensitivity analysis was performed. Then, by adjusting the selected parameters and using the observation current, the model was calibrated and validated for the periods 2007 - 1994 and 2013 - 2008, respectively. The coefficients of NS, R2, P-factor and R-factor confirmed the model's ability to simulate river flow in the studied basin. The results of the model showed that the areas with forest use share the highest contribution to aquifer nutrition, and the barren lands have the highest surface runoff. Surface runoff has the leading role in creating the main stream of the river and after that the main flow has been effective in this area. The forest use change to Agricultural lands and pasture will change the hydrological parameters of the basin, and the result of these changes will lead to the increase in the surface runoff, the reduction of nutrition of groundwater resources and the reduction of river basin water. The SWAT model can be used as a precursor model in watershed management studies.
Seyed Hossein Mir Mousavi, Masoud Jalali, Enayet Asadolahi,
Volume 21, Issue 63 (12-2021)
Abstract
In this research, coding the rainfalls, prepares daily 45 stations with the statistical period of 20 years to zero and one codes to realize the daily dry periods in west and north west of the country and then, by establishing the main condition of occurrence of code one for 30 stations, we extracted the dry 4 to 10-day frequencies. And the results gained of considering the atmospheric weathering, shows that the most clear rotational pattern in sea level is related to Siberia-Europe high-pressure panels and sometimes both of them that increase the rotation on the region and also, the local high-pressure reinforcement and there is a high altitude in atmospheric middle level which is derived from sample patterns and is placed on the studied region and these sample patterns are from omega, bi-polar and rex models that they are on Russia and Scandinavian countries with some changes. The 500 level TAVA and omega shows well that in most regions, the air course, has decreasing case and so, we can result that placement of a high altitude in atmospheric middle and upper level on the high-pressures of the earth, causes the weather stability and lack of rainfall and as a result, the stability and durability of these conditions for several days, is related to sample patterns.
Dr. Tahmoores Behrouzinia,
Volume 21, Issue 63 (12-2021)
Abstract
Concerning the importance of urban network studies and the role of hierarchy system in population decentralization in metropolitan areas, this paper by using acknowledged indicators and Grade of Membership (GoM) model and using Combined Analysis method has tried to find the changes in urban hierarchy of Khorasan region during the period 1956-2016. The outcomes show that urban system in Khorasan region as the one in the country was afflicted with inconsequentiality by 1986. However, during the period 1986-2006, the urban network in Khorasan region tended to reach to an equilibrium. Nevertheless, it has gone toward an imbalance during the period 2006-16. The outcomes also depict that the models and indicators did not work coordinated. While some indicators (such as Herfindahl and Entropy indexes) showed that, there were an equilibrium among the urban network in the region, some other (such as Primate City and Centrality indicators) showed increasing centralization and inconsequentiality. Accordingly, the study used “GoM model” and “Combined Analysis method” for the final analysis. The GoM used three variables that aimed to make the model more reliable: The Prime City Indicator, the Centrality Indicator and Equilibrium Indicator. With this methodological novelty, the analysis of the hierarchical patterns represented in the model by the multiple profiles were closer to what could be understood as a "methodological ideal", difficult to be applied empirically due to the complexity of the subject, but included in studies theoretically based. As for future studies, which will seek to understand the hierarchical urban organization of other regions of the country and of the world, these indicators may be incorporated if adapted to the regional reality.
Dr. Vahab Amiri,
Volume 21, Issue 63 (12-2021)
Abstract
In this study, the hydrogeochemical status of groundwater resources is evaluated using chemical analysis of 346 samples supplied from 10 springs. Based on Gibbs and van Wirdum diagrams, interaction with rock and sedimentary formations is the dominant process of controlling water chemistry. Based on the Chadha diagram and output of AquaChem program, the amount of alkali earth elements (Ca and Mg) is more than alkali ones (Na and K) and the value of weak acidic anions (CO3 and HCO3) is more than strong acidic anions (Cl and SO4). Therefore, the dominant hydrochemical facies in water samples are Ca-Mg-HCO3 and Mg-Ca-HCO3. In this plain, carbonate and probably halite dissolution are the causes of Ca, HCO3 and Cl abundance in water samples. All samples showed the HCO3+SO4 of less than 5 meq/l and demonstrate that the dominant process affecting water chemistry is the calcite and dolomite dissolution. Ion exchange between fine-grained materials of the aquifer and water solution has occurred very vastly. Based on chloroalkalin (I, II) indices, about 5.49% of samples exhibited the reverse ion exchange. Calculation of the saturation index showed that all samples are undersaturated with respect to anhydrite, aragonite, calcite, dolomite, gypsum, and CO2. Besides, the saturation index of water samples for calcite and aragonite is greater than anhydrite, dolomite, and gypsum. Analysis of principal components affecting water chemistry showed that about 82% of changes in water chemistry is controlled by 4 factors which factor 1 including Ca and HCO3, factor 2 including Na and Cl, factor 3 including Mg and SO4 and finally factor 4 including pH.
Mahnaz Aziz Ebrahim, Mohammad Saligheh, Mohammad Hossein Nassrzadeh, Bohlol Alijani,
Volume 22, Issue 64 (3-2022)
Abstract
In this research, we are trying to determine the “beginning time” as well as the “end” of the climatic seasons; and we will focus on identifying the displacement of these dates, which is influenced by the “climate changes” and “descriptionAbstract
The purpose of this study is to investigate possible changes and displacements in Iran's climatic seasons due to climate change. To do this, temperature, relative humidity, water vapor, wind and cloud data for 36 stations were received from the Meteorological Agency over 40 years. The data were divided into two 20-year series to allow comparison. Daily temperature data for each clustering time series were determined, then by considering 7-day sequences, the beginning and end of the seasons. The designated times were tested using the Rayman model. The results of comparing the seasons in the two time series indicated that in all stations, changes in climatic seasons occurred from Insignificant to significant. Climatic seasons in Iran do not correspond to calendar seasons, and climate change, especially temperature changes in recent decades, has caused the seasons to shift and shorten and lengthen. Although the beginning and end of the seasons do not generally correspond to their calendar dates, most of the days of these seasons occur in its calendar periods. The changes that have taken place have not only affected the length of the seasons, and these shifts have also changed the quality of the natural seasons.
Keywords: Climate change, natural seasons, cluster analysis, Rayman model of the qualitative conditions” created in them, compared to the past climatic periods. “Meteorological Organization” data has been used in this research. Forty years of received data, was divided into two groups of 20. Applying SPSS, each group was divided into four stages representing each seasons. From these stages, the beginning time and the end of seasons were determined and the accuracy of the obtained dates was controlled with the comfort indicators of the Rayman model. The results of the comparison of seasons in two time series indicated that, the changes occurred in natural seasons from an almost non-existent one in all stations. Climatic seasons in Iran are not compatible with the summer season and climate change, especially the change in temperature in recent decades, has caused changes and shortening of seasons. Most of the days in these seasons occur during its monthly periods, although the beginning and end of the seasons generally do not match their calendar dates. Changes have not only affected the duration of the season, and these changes have also led to a change in the natural quality of the season.
Dr Behzad Amraei,
Volume 22, Issue 64 (3-2022)
Abstract
Climate change is one of the most important challenges facing water resources management, including surface water and groundwater. The main purpose of this research is to detect the effect of droughts caused by the change in groundwater resources in Birjand plain. In this regard, using two nonparametric trend tests, the SENS and MAN-Kendal gradient estimates to detect the process of underground water level in Birjand city during the statistical period of 1370-1395 according to the statistics of the field of 47 areas of observation area (census water resources) Wentified. Using Pearson correlation matrix, correlation between climatic elements (Birjand station) temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration and potential transpiration were calculated with the level of local city of Birjand, and based on a multivariate regression model for modeling the annual time series at the level of confidence level of 95 / 0 was developed. Climatic factors of 2080-2065 using the Output of the HADGEM2-ES model through the LARS-WG exponential model for the position of the Birjand station under two scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 were simulated and based on the regression model, the surface of the water Birjand city was simulated. The results indicated that firstly, in the base period (1370-1395), the surface of water in the area with an annual gradient of 47 centimeters per year was reduced. The correlation analysis indicated that three elements of rainfall, temperature and evapotranspiration were modeled in a linear composition of 75% of the annual changes in groundwater. The results of the microsterge model implemented on HADGEM2-ES data indicate that during the period 2035-2065 under both the scenario, groundwater level between 10 and 13 meters lower than the base period, which resulted from an increase in evapotranspiration And consequently, rainfall will be effective.
Nabi Moradpoor, Keramatolah Zayyari,
Volume 22, Issue 65 (6-2022)
Abstract
Spatial Analysis of Crimes at Different Hours of the Day, the Days of the Week, Month, and Seasons is an Effective Way to Control and Prevent Urban Crime. These analyzes give city management and other city safety officials, including law enforcement officials, the possibility to take preventive measures to eliminate or mitigate the effects of these factors in the city. The purpose of this study was to investigate the spatial analysis of theft crimes on a daily, weekly, monthly and seasonal basis in the 12th metropolitan area of Tehran. The research method in this article is descriptive-analytic. The comprehensive statistical data included the statistical blocks of 1390 in the neighborhoods of the 12th district of Tehran and the crimes related to theft in 2010. The most important statistical tests used are the Center-Medium and Oval-standard deviation tests, and from among the clustering tests, the nearest neighbor index is used to identify massive cores. The results of this study indicate that 446 crimes related to theft, Ferdowsi and Lalehzar neighborhoods, and Sa'di Baharestani have the most crimes and minorities in Kosar and Mokhtari. The pattern of distribution of crimes in the 12th region is clustered and the most important crustal focal points are formed at the intervals of the Shemiran, Iran, Baharestan - Saadi, Ferdowsi -Laleh Zar, Arg Pamenar, Imamzadeh Yahya and the Cascade. The spatial analysis of stealing crimes also suggests that the direction and extent of theft is different at different times of the day, weekdays, and on a monthly basis.
Mrs Zahra Hejazizadeh, Mr Farshad Pazhoh, Mr Fardin Ghadami, Mrs Haniyeh Shakiba,
Volume 22, Issue 65 (6-2022)
Abstract
The aim of this study is to synoptic analyze of the number of frost days in a year of Khuzestan province. For this purpose, using the minimum daily temperature data of 12 stations during the statistical period of 1992 to 2017, the Meteorological Organization of the country, 54 days of frost was identified. Sea level pressure, Geopotential Height, Zonal and meridian wind and temperature of 500 hPa data with size of 2/5 * 2/5 degree arc from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric United States of America were extracted. On the matrix of the variance of sea level pressure data in 54 days, the analysis of the basic components was performed and 10 components which identified 83% variance of the sea level pressure. Then, by applying the hierarchical cluster analysis method, the integration method was applied to the scores of the 10 components and 5 patterns of sea level pressure were identified. The results showed that frost phenomenon in Khuzestan province occurs from November to march and its trend is decreasing during the statistical period. Also northern and western parts of the province have allocated the most frequency of frost. Also the synoptic condition analysis of troposphere showed that 5 sea level pressure pattern with different make ups lead to pervasive frosts of Khuzestan province. Weak and moderate frosts formed by the influence of Siberian and European cold high pressure systems. But severe frosts occur with spread of Iceland low pressure to Iran, along with strong cold pressures. Meanwhile, the powerful Siberian high pressure is present in most of the patterns, which its interaction with sub polar and Icelandic low pressure, plays the most role in the most severe frost in the province of Khuzestan. Also in the middle level of troposphere penetration of deep troughs from northern latitudes and east European huge blockings has the most role, which has advection of cold air from the side west of troughs on the country and during the intensity of the frost added to its continuity.