Showing 53 results for کرم
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Volume 16, Issue 42 (9-2016)
Abstract
Guidance plan does with economic, structure, social and cultural attitude in Iran and this plan has high effect on rural life. Therefore it is essential that we study guidance plan base of rural managers and rural councils attitude. Investigative method was descriptive, analysis (survey method) and research tools were questionnaire. Statistical society includes rural managers and rural council members. Sampling method in rural managers was census method and rural council methods were random sampling method. Number of rural managers was 31 and number of rural council members was 103 respondents (in councils with 3 members we select 3 respondents and in rural councils with 5 members we select 3 respondents). Results shows that guidance plan have positive effect on structure of village. But in economic and cultural dimensions, there is no effect on villages. Maps of guidance plan were weak. Respondent believe that there are low satisfaction about guidance plan among rural managers and rural council members. It is important and we must notice to it.
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Dr. Morad Kavianirad, Dr Yadollah Karimi Pour, Dr. Hedayat Fahmi, Mr. Sadegh Karami,
Volume 17, Issue 46 (9-2017)
Abstract
Efforts to provide security have always been of great importance to human being. In recent decades, the security issues of climate change have attracted attentions due to its sustainable consequences on the lives and civilization of humans. Among all countries, the ones which are placed in draught belt, like our country Iran, have hurt a lot because of low precipitations and also mismanagements in water resources control. Climate change show itself by changes in precipitation patterns, reduction of precipitation and increasing of temperature. According to the present data, Iran's central drainage basin which consists of important geopolitical provinces, has been affected by the above mentioned factors. This descriptive-analytic research is carried out based on the effects of climate change on Iran's central basin which provides approximately 48 percent of Iran’s GDP. Continuity of climate changes in this region can make critical problems in social, environmental, economic and political scales and the lives of the citizens would be affected as well. To conclude, the persistence of the current conditions in climate change in the central drainage basin of Iran, would result in challenges through the national stability and security.
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Volume 17, Issue 47 (12-2017)
Abstract
The purpose of this research is the simulation of the maize function to scenario of climate change to the present and future. So to survey the region climate, daily data, maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and radiation have been utilized during the period of (1987-2016). In order to simulating of climate in future, firstly the date of IPCM4 model under scenario and 30’s and 50’s with downscaling LARS-WG model. Before the simulation yield of maize, APSIM model was evaluated and validated. To calculate the maize yield the output of LARS model, plant date and were utilized as the cropping input model of APSIM. By variance analysis maize yield was compared in present and future. The results showed that the APSIM model validation can simulate acceptable accuracy and climate parameters change effect on the yield rate of maize. And on the basis of the highest yield in Fasa the lowest in the city Abade in base line. In future under different scenarios of climate change, maze grain yield in Fars province except Abade, other cities are decreasing than base line.
Abed Golkarami, , Afshin Motaghi, Hossien Rabiee,
Volume 18, Issue 49 (3-2018)
Abstract
Knowing Country and understanding the capacity of its perimeter and international environment are essential components of the economy that the foreign policy of any country should be on the basis of territorial and social. The country relies on its geopolitical foundations that they are influenced by its geographical location can affect codification foreign policy in the international economy. Hence, this paper with an analytical -descriptive method to survey the geopolitical and geographical foundations of Islamic Republic of Iran's economy. This paper show that Economy of Islamic Republic Iran away with its Geopolitical foundations and to achieve an effective economic on the closed surrounding and international environment, review in Geopolitical foundations of foreign policy that is mentioned in the form of five components are necessary and is inevitable. Hence, Islamic Republic of Iran to pursue these foundations in foreign policy strategy, not only effects will be in terms of political and cultural on international environment but also in terms geo-economic impact on international political economy.
Rahmatollah Shojaei Moghadam, Mostafa Karampoor, Behroz Nasiri, Naser Tahmasebipour,
Volume 18, Issue 51 (6-2018)
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to analyze and analyze Iran's precipitation over the past half-century(1967-2017). For this purpose, the average monthly rainfall of Iran during the statistical period of 50 years was extracted from Esfazari databases (Which is provided using data from 283 stations of Synoptic and Climatology). Regression analysis was used to analyze the trend and to analyze the annual and monthly rainfall cycles of Iran, spectral analysis was used. Investigation and analysis of monthly precipitation trend indicates that except for central Zagros (Lorestan and Chaharmahal va Bakhtiari and Gorgan areas, where rainfall in winter season has increased trend), in other parts of the country and in other seasons, the trend of decline Precipitation is prevalent. The study of Iranian rainfall cycles has been shown that Most of Iran's rainfall cycles are 2 to 4 years old and have a short term course. Meanwhile, there are two middle-cycle 25-year cycles in January-July and two long-term 50-year cycles in March and December, indicating a trend in the March and December rainfall. The two months of February and October lacked a clear cycle. The analysis of the auto-correlation model of rainfall showed that the high spatial auto-correlation model in winter was consistent with the western, southwestern and coastal of the Caspian Sea and covered about 14% of the country's. The low spatial auto-correlation model is found in sparse spots in the southern, central and southeastern regions of the country in winter and spring, and covered about 7.5% of the country's. The results of this study indicate that the overall trend of Iran's rainfall is decreasing trend and only in winter, in the small regions of the country, the increase trend is observed.
Hossein Imani Pour, Abdolreza Kashki, Mokhtar Karami,
Volume 18, Issue 51 (6-2018)
Abstract
Heating requirements are one of the most important human issues in the fields of agriculture, tourism and energy management in the present and future .Knowing the extent of these changes can be very effective in making decision makers. The purpose of this study is to examine the changes in the requirements of the heating degree day in conditions of climate change in southern Khorasan province. For this purpose, daily data from the minimum and maximum temperature of 11 stations of the South Khorasan province were received from the Meteorological Organization of Iran during the period of 1990-2015. The latest available scenarios of the fifth report of the Climate Change Interagency Panel (AR5 2014) include RCP scenarios from the Canadian Climate Change website and, using the SDSM macroeconomic statistics software, the data for the upcoming period (2016-2046) in the study area was thrown off. Using the Matlab software capability, the monthly and annual heating requirements of the stations were calculated in the current and future period. Finally, using the Kriging interpolation method, the zoning maps for cooling requirements for the current and future period are mapped in ArcGIS software. By examining the effect of geographic features (latitude and longitude and station height) on the heating needs in the area, it was determined that the role of heights is very effective in changing the heating needs. In the cold months of the year (Azar, Dey and Bahman), the highlands (Qain, Arsak, Fath Abad, Aryan Shahr, Darmian) require higher energy levels due to the need for higher temperatures. Increasing the temperature and warming of the air in the future, especially in the months of Farvardin and Mehr in most places, requires less use of exhaustible equipment in the future.
Elham Yarahmadi, Mostafa Karampoor, Hooshang Ghaemi, Mohammad Moradi, Behrouz Nasiri,
Volume 19, Issue 53 (6-2019)
Abstract
Investigating of rainfall behavior in the spatial-temporal dimension and determining the tolerance thresholds of different geographical areas with respect to vegetation, animal life and human activities, is essential for any decision in the environment. Therefore, precipitation data of 27 stations were received from the Meteorological Organization during the 60-year period and After the data were evaluated qualitatively, The distribution of temporal and spatial mean, coefficient of variation, skewness and probability distribution of 20% maximum and minimum monthly and seasonal autumn and winter, for a period of 60 years (1951-2010), two 30-year periods (1980-1951), (1981- 2010) and two 10-year periods (2010-2001), (1951-1960) were calculated and were zoned using GIS. Studies show, except on the shores of the Caspian Sea, there is little change between autumn and winter patterns. The average rainfall of the southern shores of the Caspian Sea has decreased to the west and east. in other areas of the country, the spatial and temporal variations of rainfall in the autumn are very highand from the north to the south, the mean decreases and the coefficient of variation and skewness increase. In winter, maintaining the pattern of autumn, the average precipitation increases and the coefficient of variation decreases. The average precipitation of 30 years and 10 years of the second winter season, compared to the first 30 years and 10 years, and also the 60 year period, has decreased in most stations, which is consistent with the results of the Mannkundal test. Analysis and review of the 20% minimum and maximum seasonal rainfall show that the intensity and range of performance of winter precipitation systems in the second 30 years have decreased. Also, the frequency and severity of drought in the autumn season have increased in the second 30 years and in the last 10 years. The highest decline occurred in the western and eastern parts of the Caspian coast and in the northwest, which requires special attention to managers in light of the areas of activity and concentration of the population.
Ms Masoumeh Amiribesheli, Mr Hosein Mogtabazadekhanghahi, Mr Yosefali Ziari, Mr Ali Nourikermani,
Volume 19, Issue 54 (9-2019)
Abstract
The urban land management is an l part of the urban management. In some countries such as Iran, there is no integrated urban land management and providing municipal services is assigned to nationwide organisations. This means urban management is offered by the municipality or subsidiaries of the aforementioned organisations such dispersion has occurred during serval decades. It is considered as the roots of organizatinal inefficiencies ( offocial and financial corruption is regarded as basic reasin for many crimes) and the origin or many conflicts between people and organizations(judicial) To do so, it follows an applied analytical descriptive approach. To analyse the data, mathematical and statistical methods were applied using Excel and SPSS. Moreover, the GIS was used for visualisation and adaptive analysis. The study concluded that lack of clear visions and consequently uncoordinated organisations and their policies, isolated and vertical decision-making, and unmanaged intervention without the required organisational capacities are the critical reasons for inefficient urban land management.
Hosseinali Roohbakhsh Sigaroodi, Mostafa Karampoor, Hooshang Ghaemi, Mohammad Moradi, Majid Azadi,
Volume 19, Issue 55 (12-2019)
Abstract
Investigating the variability of the spatial-temporal pattern of rainfall, which can lead to climate change, due to its strong impact, is of interest to various scientists. For this purpose, after receiving the daily precipitation data of 27 stations for the period of 60 years (2010-1951), its quality and the total monthly precipitation and statistics necessary for the continuation of the research process such as mean, coefficient of variation, skewness, probability estimate of 20% The upper limit of the maximum and minimum rainfall average were calculated experimentally for a period of 60 years and two 30-year periods (1951-1980 and 1981-2010) and two periods of 10 years (1951-1960 and 2010-2001) for each of the spring and summer seasons Was calculated. The studies show relatively modest variations in spring and summer precipitation patterns on the Caspian coast, Northwest-West, 30 and 10 years old, compared to the 60-year, 30-year, and 10-year periods. In general, the mean of precipitation decreases from north and northwest to south and south east and increases the amount of coefficient of change and skidding. Except for the Caspian Basin, in the remaining stations, the average spring precipitation is higher than the average summer rainfall. There is a clear difference in the long-term characteristics of precipitation and its changes. It is worth mentioning that the increase in the coefficient of variation of the 30-year and 10-year periods is comparable to the corresponding periods at all stations, which indicates a decrease in the monthly and seasonal mean of spring and summer precipitation, which confirms the results of the decade and the first decade of the second decade. The greatest decrease occurred in the northern and western parts. In the second 30 years, the incidence of dry sunshine and drought-affected stations has increased. Therefore, it confirms the climate change for the Caspian and the Southwest coast.
Doc Maryam Ilanloo, Doc Amir Karam,
Volume 20, Issue 56 (3-2020)
Abstract
The destruction of the rivers and, consequently, the need to reconstruct them, is one of the known important problems in throughout the world. However, suitable methods for assessing the morphological changes (morphology) associated with this action, as well as the cognition of the effect of the morphological factors in order to intervention in the process of river reconstruction, are still being explored. The JAJROOD and LATYAN-dam areas in the north east of Tehran due to the pleasant weather have always been and are in Eco tourists and nature interested people noteworthy. For this reason, during the recent decades and because of human manipulations, the JAJROOD River basin and its margins have been heavily affected. Hence the study of hydro morphological changes in this river is strongly needed. The object of this research is to evaluate the hydro morphological conditions of one part of JAJROOD River using the MQI method. Accordingly, Landsat 8 satellite images of 2018 and Landsat 4 in 1976 were prepared and were take placed several field observations. The results of the research show that all areas of the region are in poor and very weak conditions regarded to the MQI method. These problems are caused by the cutting of trees in order to create human structures, harvesting sand, creating numerous promenades along the river's estuaries and changing the river pattern.
Mokhtar Karami,, Rahman Zandi,, Jalal Taheri,
Volume 20, Issue 56 (3-2020)
Abstract
In recent years with the development of cities coatings of the Earth's has changed surface. These changes have caused some urban areas to have a few degrees higher than the surrounding temperature. This phenomenon is known as thermal islands. Mashhad is one of the major metropolises in Iran with the problem of thermal islands. Various parameters affect the formation of thermal islands in this city that should be considered. In this study TM, ETM+ and OLI images were used to obtain surface temperature over the period 1987-2016. The study of temporal variations in surface temperature showed that in the studied period, thermal islands were transferred from outside the city to the city. The model for describing the temperature of the surface of the earth has changed and has diminished from the temperature of the city's moderate and cool temperatures, and in contrast, the amount of high temperatures (thermal islands) has increased significantly. The TOPSIS method was also used to obtain the thermal forming factors. 13 natural and human factors affecting the formation of thermal islands were identified. Each expert opinion factor was used to determine the degree of importance. According to experts, the distance from the sanctuary with a weight of %234 and traffic of %155 is the most important and the height with a weight of %022 is least important in the formation of thermal islands. The final results obtained from this model showed that the factors affecting the formation of thermal islands are well recognized and the temperature decreases with these factors.
Mehdi Asadi, Mokhtar Karami,
Volume 20, Issue 56 (3-2020)
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to determine the evapotranspiration in Fars province that in many studies such as hydrological balance of water, irrigation systems design and management, simulation of product volume and management of water resources is very important. To do this, first, required data such as daily temperature, humidity, precipitation, wind speed, solar radiation pressures, solar radiation, etc. was collected. We used 12 stations with the same statistical interval, for the period 1995-2015. In order to estimate the evapotranspiration of the reference plant in different growth stages, Torent White, Penman-Monteith and Hargreaves-Samani methods were used. Results showed that with decreasing latitude, the evapotranspiration rate increased, and the highest rate of evapotranspiration occurs in the south, southeast and the center of the study area. The correlation coefficient R2 between height and White Penman, Monteith and Hargreaves Samani, are 0.9135, 0.53223 and 0.5286 respectively.
Mr Behroz Sobhani, Mr Vahid Safarian Zengir, Ms Akhzar Karami,
Volume 20, Issue 57 (6-2020)
Abstract
The limitations and boundaries of agricultural production is dependent on climatic conditions. Weather is one of the most important factors in human activities, especially agriculture. Corn cultivation in the country's food supply is essential. Kermanshah province, with the potential favorable climate, optimum conditions for corn are cultivated. The aim of this study was to investigate the role of precipitation and temperature in determining the agricultural calendar and to determine suitable areas for planting corn. To do this, climate data from 10 synoptic stations during the period of 20 years (1390-1371) were used. Use, Hoteling test and test observational data were analyzed. According to research, the station is under study, corn crop water demand in the months of June, July, August and September not secure and High temperature areas due to reduced need frequent in the months of May and June and in the lowlands due to a sharp increase in flowering time, seed maintenance and handling problems during the growing season makes this crop. Based on the results of Hotelling test 62 percent of the land area suitable Kermanshah province, 24 percent and 14 percent for maize is unsuitable. And also based on the results of t-test found 47 percent good, 38 percent moderate and 15 percent are unsuitable for corn. As a result, the central area of moderate temperatures for planting, eastern and northern areas of the southern and western areas of the province due to tropical cold and not suitable for maize cultivation.
Ali Shamai, Mahsa Delfannasab, Mohammad Porakrami,
Volume 20, Issue 59 (12-2020)
Abstract
The purpose of this study was to investigate the factors affecting housing prices in the Laleh Park district of Tehran. In this study, the data of all real estate traded in the first six months of the year 2016 was used in the study area. Information about the physical properties of the residential units trained is collected from the Real Estate Market Information System of Iran and is used to obtain information on the accessibility features of residential units traded using ARC GIS software. Multivariate regression analysis has also been used to investigate the factors affecting housing prices. The results of this study showed that the physical factors of housing are more effective than the access factors in the housing prices in this district . Among the selected features, the variables of residential area, parking, and skeletal type had the most positive effect on the price of housing in the area under study. On the other hand, some of the features, such as the distance from the residential unit to the nearest main street, the residential unit to the nearest educational user, the residential unit distance to the nearest health care provider, and the residential unit's age, had a negative effect on the housing price in the Laleh Park district .
Dr. Sadegh Karami,
Volume 20, Issue 59 (12-2020)
Abstract
Importance of climate change is global. This issue to some extent has been out of human control. Human beings can only provide security and the community with knowledge and management against its negative consequences. On the basis of this research, the present paper analyzes the impact of climate change on Iran, on a small scale and applied to the central catchment area. The findings of the research indicate that climate change has shown the geographic region of Iran in terms of changing the rainfall pattern, decreasing precipitation and increasing its temperature. In the next step, these cases resulted in excessive withdrawal of groundwater aquifers and it has reduced the quality of underground water. This chain has led to the design of inter-basin water transmission projects, which is at least the result of the cycle of social tensions that has occurred in recent years. Considering the geographical extent of the basin and its belonging to one of the most frequent aspects of Iran's civilization, the set of consequences of climate change in the central catchment area, in addition to its impact on various social, political, economic and environmental layers, also has several scale effects. And its destructive effects go beyond national scale and to an extent beyond the scope of Iranian culture. In this regard, the research findings indicate that climate change in the central watershed is influential in many aspects of society and the country, so that if the current process continues, the current Iranian civilization will face a strategic challenge. To this end, at the end of the research, good water governance, as the best way to confront and control the negative consequences of climate change on the central catchment area, and Iran in general, has been argued.
Shila Hajehforosh, Amir Karam,
Volume 21, Issue 60 (3-2021)
Abstract
River management, including strategies that effectively have an effect on the behavior. Geomorphological management, is the study of shapes, nature, and origin, processes of emergence, development and use of human and material composition of the Earth. The assessment of river character and behavior in Stage 1 is based on analysis of the assemblage of geomorphic units (channel and floodplain landforms) along any reach. Arangeh River basin were identified in 1and 3 styles, including: Headwater, Gorge style in confined valley setting, planform controlled, floodplain bed, low sinuosity cobble, low sinuosity gravel, bedrock controlled sand, meandering gravel, unconfined low sinuosity cobble with Side stabilized, partly-confined low sinuosity cobble with Side stabilized, partly confined Asymmetric valley with cobble, , partly confined symmetric valley with cobble ,Artificial bed.Geomorphic conditions of each of the styles were evaluated in the two stage of river style framework. at this stage of adjustment of Each style is determined to the confusion of peak flow by using criteria such as channel characteristics (size, shape, morphology Bank and plants channels), channel plan form (sinuosity, lateral stability, geomorphic units into the channel and River flood plain and plants) and features bed . Two Style had good geomorphic conditions (floodplain bed bedrock controlled sand, unconfined low sinuosity cobble with Side stabilized) show the potential of a good adjustment, and the reach has a good of potential adjustments are more sensitive to changes . In the fourth stage of rehabilitation is carried out in reach scales, basins and river basin based on forecasts of possible changes in the future and potential of Geomorphic River Recovery. Each style is proposed management priorities in accordance with the geomorphic and recycling potential.
Dr Aeizh Azmi, Mrs Akram Razlansari, Mrs Leila Mataei,
Volume 21, Issue 61 (6-2021)
Abstract
In this project government endow loam to villagers for improving their houses. This project help to villagers for improvement their life and it help to villagers for preparation for sudden hazards. Improvement rural houses project improve quality of life villagers. Therefore, this project presents for resolving problems and challenges that improvement rural houses project confront with them. Investigative method was descriptive-survey and we used from questionnaire for collecting data. Statistical society includes 50 people that we used from census method for sampling method. Statistical method was technical supervisors in Kermanshah County. Reliability calculated by alpha Cronbach method that equal 0.72 and validity calculated by K.M.O and Bartlet method that equal (K.M. O=74/0) and Bartlet significant equal (0.0). But technical supervisors have positive attitude about housing foundation of Islamic revolution performance. They were satisfaction from workshops and upstream supervisors in housing foundation of Islamic revolution of province of Kermanshah. Results shows that there is relationship between distance village from city and quality of building materials quality. Also, there is relationship between knowledge of people about project and time periods. It shows that knowledge people increase. Finally, by factor analysis we understand that there are 5 components that effect on improvement rural houses projects that include: dimension of individual people and technical supervisors, attitude of people to improvement rural houses projects, life quality and improvement in life style, challenge in law and discipline and time of project. They explain 65.85% of total of variance. Also, the findings show that there is a meaningful and reverse relationship between the beginning of the technical observer's period and the amount of his attention to the consciousness of the people at the level of 0/05. Meanwhile, people's awareness has increased over time.
Mr Ahmad Zanganeh, Mr Tajedin Karami, Ms Roghayeh Yadolahisaber,
Volume 21, Issue 62 (9-2021)
Abstract
Assessment is one of the important methods in analyzing the accomplishment of Sustainable development and as one of the necessities of planning can identify potential and actual environmental effect that is emerged as a result of the construction and development and provides logical options to solve them. The purpose of the current research is to assess the environmental effects of multi-layer highways on the neighborhood. The research is applied In terms of purpose and descriptive in terms of nature. Moreover, this research is environment based and uses sustainable development in theory. In order to analyze the data, 8 neighborhood around the Sadr bridge (Tajrish, Gheytariyeh, Chizar, Zargandeh, Sadr, Rostam Abas, Ekhtiyarieh and Pasdaran neighborhoods) were chosen as the analyze unit. Assessment indexes were assed in term of social, skeleton, vision and health-hygiene, economic and ecologic and safety-security domains. statistical Qualitative and quantitative methods including one sample T test and Friedman test were used to rate the domains and spatial analysis methods (spatial statistics) were used to show the status of the neighborhood. We also used the TOPSIS technique and Iranian Leopold in order to rate the neighborhood in terms of environmental effects of multi-layer Sadr Bridge. Results of the assessment matrix showed that Sadr multi-layer project is confirmed by providing corrective options in activities with high and very high damage. Based on the research findings it was found that the neighborhoods around the Sadr multi-layer highway given the assed dimensions, each have a different susceptibility from the multi-layer Sadr Bridge. In this regard, the ecological and skeleton have the most susceptibility and the security each have the least susceptibility from the Sadr multi-layer Sadr bridge and in rating the neighborhood, Rostamabad had the most susceptibility and the Zarhandeh has the least susceptibility from the Multi-layer Sadr bridge.
Somaie Jahantigh, Dr Amir Karam, Dr Ezatollah Ghanavati,
Volume 22, Issue 65 (6-2022)
Abstract
Geotourism is kind of responsible tourism with the aim of socio - economic development and strengthening of the scientific tourism destinations and tourism geological locations that emphasizes the protection of the heritage of the land and people of Sciences. Requires the development of a geo-tourism destination is recognizing its value and capability concept and planning barriers and providing favorable to its management. Tourism zone of Tangeh Vashi in the city of Firouzkoh, with different geological phenomena and scientific and complementary values, is geotourism destination in local and sometimes national level. Therefore, in this study, using a variety of assessment methods geotourism area of land that was presented in 2015 by Brill. In this, steps were taken. Therefore, the optimum user Tangeh Vashi Tourism, Economic User scientific approach - protective. The results shows that in generally, Tangeh Vashi has suitable condition in educational and tourism values. Also, Risk of collapse in Tangeh Vashi is relatively high. According to the results, the optimal management of geotourism Tange Vashi, the powers of access and the center of the province's population and strengthening of the complementary and diversity of geological and strengthen tourism and the preservation interpretation capability along with the application the physical protection and promotion of scientific partnership rural and legal controls.
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Neamatallah Safarzaei, Alireza Entezari, Mokhtar Karami, Gholamali Khammar,
Volume 22, Issue 66 (9-2022)
Abstract
Today climate change cause increase in concentration of greenhouse gases has been cause increase extreme events and atmospheric hazards. goal of this research, analyze and review climate future is for atmospheric hazards in sistan region. In this study, to simulate minimum and maximum temperature data used from model data CanESM2 under three scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) with SDSM statistical scrolling and to simulate rainfall data from the Hadcm3 model under scenarios (A1B, A2, B1) with statistical scrolling LARS-WG. For this purpose, after calibration, validation and data modeling at the selected station, the performance of the model from the viewpoint of the compliance of the base temperature data (1984-2005) and rainfall (1986-2015) with simulation values (2020-2039) evaluated at a significant level of confidence. To adapt base data to simulated data Used of the three criteria root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2) and mean squared error (MSE). According to simulated data were examined four important atmospheric hazard frost, heat waves, extreme precipitation and drought. The results showed that heat waves and drought in the future are serious threats in the region So that in 2021, under release scenario RCP 2.6, Predicted 32 heat waves and the study area will experience more than five heat waves in the year. In addition, most frequent drought forecast in 2020, under release scenario A1B. Extreme precipitation in some years under scenario B1 can be significant threat in the region. Intensity and abundance annual frost under release scenario RCP2.6 more than other scenarios and lower relative to investigated atmospheric threats.
