Showing 151 results for Type of Study: Applicable
Esmat Khan Mohammadi, Rahim Sarvar, Alireza Estalaji,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
Today, the accelerating trend of urbanization, the lack of guidance and urban management, national and regional inequalities, and differences in the socio-economic base of individuals have led to the growth and expansion of informal housing. Due to this situation, informal housing has been expanding in Tehran's metropolitan area. The present study seeks to find key factors affecting informal housing in the study area and also to determine the relationships between criteria through structural-interpretive modeling (ISM). Are; Which is applied in terms of the nature of the application and in terms of the combined method (quantitative and qualitative) and in terms of the inductive research approach In this method, a questionnaire tool was used and in order to analyze the relationships and present their structural model, the interpretive structural modeling method was used, The results of MICMAC analysis and the classification of key factors in the four matrix clusters It shows that the factors of economic growth, redistributive policies, decentralization and transfer of authority, regional equilibrium policies, revision of development and sanctions laws and regulations and its effects are in the fourth cluster,which are in fact variables of research. In fact, key variables are research, and the only factor in housing policies is the cluster of link variables, which will guide other factors, and change will affect the entire system.
Dr Afshin Mottaghi, Mr Arash Ghorbani Sepehr, Ms Parisa Ghorbani Sepehr,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
In the field of spatial planning of border areas, the macro-perspective view of geography should be applied in order to identify the possibilities, capabilities and limitations of border areas, at least to avoid the tensions and challenges due to unbalanced development. , Deprivation and spatial heterogeneity arise, prevented. The research method in this study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of method. In this regard, using a combination of multi-criteria decision-making techniques similar to the ideal option (TOPSIS) and Shannon entropy coefficient, the distribution and development of spatial development indicators in health-service sectors in Kurdistan province evaluation The border cities of this province have been classified according to the level of having these indicators. The question of the present study is what is the situation of the cities of Kurdistan province in terms of spatial distribution of health and service indicators? It seems that the level of enjoyment of any of the border cities of Kurdistan province is not at the desired level. The findings of this study indicate that Kurdistan province, despite having a special position and high geopolitical potential, is still one of the most deprived provinces in the country. In addition, there is a kind of imbalance and heterogeneity in the distribution and development of facilities and development indicators in the border cities of the province. Based on the analysis of 13 indicators of the space organization from a total of 4 border cities of this province, Saqez and Baneh cities in the semi-privileged (semi-deprived) group and the two cities of Marivan and Sarvabad in the category without (deprived) place Taken. Based on the results of this study, the space organization in the border cities of Kurdistan province is highly heterogeneous and these cities are in the middle to lower level in terms of health-service development that is necessary in terms of health and services This border province should be given special attention to ensure the lasting security of the border citizens of Kurdistan.
Fereydoon . Babaei Aghdam, Rahim Rahim Heydari Chianeh, Qassem Rahimifard,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of destination image and service quality on the competitiveness of tourism destinations studied: Tabriz city was written. This research is applied in terms of purpose and analytical in terms of descriptive method. The statistical population consisted of incoming tourists to the city of Tabriz, the sample size of which was estimated to be 384 using the Cochran's formula for an unlimited population. In order to collect field information, a researcher-made questionnaire was used, the validity of which was confirmed by experts. Cronbach's alpha method and combined reliability were also used to evaluate the reliability, and the results of these tests confirmed the reliability of the questionnaire used. In order to analyze the data and information of this research, SPSS and LISREL software were used. The results of the research hypotheses showed that the destination image and service quality have a positive and significant effect on the competitiveness of tourism destinations. According to the path coefficient obtained for these two independent variables, the effect of the destination image variable on the competitiveness of tourism destinations was higher than the quality of services.
Dr Hafez Mahdnejad, Dr Hamid Bargi, Dr Alireza Gholami,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
Today, the cities of the country are faced with a kind of duality and inequality. As urban inequality has become one of their spatial characteristics. Therefore, the purpose of the present study is to Zoning of spatial inequality neighborhoods of Isfahan metropolis based on economic indicators for better planning for organizing, empowering and enhancing their quality of life. This study is an applied one and its method is descriptive-analytical. The research data were obtained from Statistical Blocks of Iran Statistical Center (2016). The statistical method used to analyze the data, compile the indices and extract the final urban poverty indices with AHP, Topsis and Hotspot. The findings show that the coefficients of influence on the components of the main occupational, occupational, housing and vehicle components respectively are: 0.266, 0.317, 0.223 and 0.184. According to the final index of poverty status in terms of economic indicators, 23 neighborhoods (11.98%) have good quality, 37 neighborhoods (19.27%) have relatively good quality, 52 neighborhoods (27.08%) are in moderate condition, 64 Neighborhoods (33.33%) are in poor condition and finally 16 neighborhoods equivalent to 8.33% of all metropolitan areas of Isfahan are in poor condition. In total, about 42% of all metropolitan areas of Isfahan are in poor condition. The results of the Hotspot model show that neighborhoods with higher than average values in the south and partly in the center of the city and neighborhoods with lower than average values are located in the east and partly west of Isfahan. In fact, the city can be divided into northern and southern parts.
Hamzeh Alizadeh, Mehry Akbary, Zahra Hejazizadeh, Mohamad Ahmadi,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
Kermanshah province, especially Ravansar city is one of the important regions of the country in the agricultural and horticultural sector, most of the time the hail phenomenon causes significant damage to these sectors. One way to reduce this damage is to install an anti-hail system. To achieve this goal, 37 station hail data were clustered and three main clusters were obtained representing hail days; Each of the clusters has been plotted and analyzed in terms of geopotential height of 500 hPa, moisture level of 700, and map of 1000 to 500 hPa of temperature and omega. The results of the study of hail patterns show; A low-altitude system is essential in the Middle East; To direct hot and humid air from the southern offerings to the region; At the same time, it is necessary to have high instability and weak static stability in the atmosphere on the surface of the earth, as well as the presence of sufficient moisture that can provide showers. Hierarchical analysis (AHP) method was used for location in GIS environment and parameters such as (slope, slope direction, temperature, humidity ...) were evaluated. These criteria were classified as operating maps, each separately and were scored according to the degree of priority in establishing the device. The final map shows the location of the system: Parts of the northwest of the region (Mansour Aghaei and Ghori Qaleh) and northeast of the central part of Ravansar and parts of the southwest of the area due to the appropriate geographical conditions and appropriate to them, sufficient temperature and humidity and the direction of the southwest slope, and having Favorable conditions for severe instability followed by hail; Anti-hail system is very important for construction in these areas. In general, about 32.6 square kilometers have relatively favorable conditions and about 3 square kilometers have very favorable conditions for the construction of the system.
Dr Mitra Saberi, Dr Amir Karam, Parviz Zeaiean, Ali Ahmadabadi,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
many geomorphic landforms have fractal structures and their formation and transformation can be explained by mathematical relations. The purpose of this study is to identify and analyze the fractal behavior of landforms of macro geomorphologic regions of Iran,as well as studying and analyzing topographic and landform characteristics based on fractal relationships, and also, analyzing the characteristics of dominant geomorphologic processes based on the theory of fractals. In this study, the contour lines of different landforms of Iran (according to the territorial types) including mountains,hills, plateaus, Plain Domains, Fan Breakout, fan alluvial, for pixel sizes of 30,90,200 m, were drawn and their fractal dimension was estimated by using the box-counting method. The morphometric characteristics of the landforms and their fractal dimensions with indexes (max, mean and standard deviation) related to the five variables (height, gradient, profile curvature and planar curvature of the metric) were analyzed by Arc GIS software at each layer.After investigating their correlation with the fractal dimension, the regression analysis was performed binary and the relationship between the fractal dimension,topography, landforms and processes was analyzed. The fractal dimension has the highest correlation coefficient with the gradient and the standard deviation indices, and the lowest coefficient with the profile curvature and the mean index Moreover, for larger pixel sizes, the correlation coefficient decreases between the indices and the fractal dimension.This research can provide a ground for further research on fractal geometry in geography, geomorphology, geology, environment and other Earth sciences.
Nahid Bagheri, Mohammad Mohammad, Ezatollah Mafi,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
From the time of human life until now, disasters have had a negative impact on human life; In response, individuals and communities are trying to mitigate the consequences of these disasters and establish scales to assess the initial effects; Also respond to the post-disaster needs and return to baseline. To address these challenges and, as a result, improve the quality of life in cities and metropolises, the need for long-term planning and decision-making in solving these problems is more necessary than ever. Therefore, dealing with new urban theories, each with the aim of solving urban problems, improving the quality and quantity of life of citizens in cities, improving the quality of the city environment, city management, advancing the city to become more desirable, and so on. , Is more important than ever. In recent decades, to solve these challenges and reduce its effects on metropolises and large cities, various solutions and perspectives have been proposed, one of which is to pay attention to the concept of resilient city. The present study is descriptive. - It is analytical and practical in terms of purpose. The statistical population of this study consisted of experts and professors familiar with the topics of the city. 35 university professors and experts in the field of research determined the sample size intended to complete the questionnaire. The results of this study showed that the criterion of physical characteristics of tissue with the highest D-R value (0.672) is at the top of the chart and shows that this criterion is the most effective criterion. Also, based on the calculated D + R value, the building quality criterion is the most important criterion. Also, the urban infrastructure criterion was considered as the most influential criterion due to the fact that it has the lowest D-R value.
Mohammad Saghebi, Ezatollah Mafi, Mehdi Watanparast,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
Nowadays, addressing approaches such as livability for today's cities as concepts that play an important role in reducing social, economic and environmental problems of cities is an inevitable necessity. In fact, livability is a concept with all angles and mental and objective dimensions Is concerned with human beings and seeks to create a healthier and more livable urban environment for current citizens of future generations; Therefore, livability is a new concept and approach in the paradigm of sustainable urban development, which some consider one of the greatest ideas of urban planning in modern times. In livable city, the goal is not only to meet the physical needs of urban society, but also to create a sense of citizen satisfaction According to this, the main purpose of this research is an analysis of urban livability in Bojnourd with emphasis on security index.
The purpose of the present study is applied and in terms of method: descriptive-analytical. Using GIS software, maps related to the status of each of the objective sub-indicators based on Bojnourd city police stations have been drawn. For mental indicators that have 8 items, a questionnaire The sample size in the whole city of Bojnourd is 383 people. The results of this study show that police station area 13 of Bojnourd (in region one) is the best area in terms of security index. The worst area in terms of security is related to police station area 12 (area two) in terms of index. It is security.
Mrs Azam Abbaspour, Dr Iraj Ietessam, Dr Hamid Majedi, Dr Azade Shahcheragi,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
In todaychr('39')s world, housing and shelter have overshadowed many aspects of human life. Providing adequate housing, especially for low-income urban groups, is one of the most important issues and challenges facing all countries. The desirability of the environment of residential complexes built for low-income groups has always been a challenging issue. In the programs and plans prepared for these groups, due to the huge flood of applicants and also the limited resources and credits, quantitative goals have often been pursued and qualitative goals have been abandoned. A study of the housing pattern of this group in cities shows that attention and application of effective indicators of housing sustainability is one of the categories that should be considered in the process of housing planning. This article, with the aim of analyzing the factors affecting the housing survival of low-income groups, has reviewed the theoretical literature and tested research hypotheses. The statistical population of the study is the residents of Mehr dwelling in Sirjan. After distributing the questionnaire, data analysis was used at two levels of descriptive and inferential statistics. The validity of the structure was confirmed by factor analysis. The reliability of the instrument was also calculated using Cronbachchr('39')s alpha coefficient test of o.7. Data analysis was performed from Sstructural Equation Modeling using Smart PLS software. Findings indicate the relationship between quantitative and qualitative indicators of housing on durability. Quality index with cultural and social criteria and components such as security, privacy, sense of place, user participation has the greatest impact on Durability of low-income housing in Sirjan.
Zeinab Mohebbi, Dr Farzaneh Sasanpour, Dr Ali Shamaei, Dr Habib Fasihi,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
Today, cities are looking for advanced ways to improve their individual personality and one of the most important strategies is to characterize the characteristics of city branding, which can be a solution for the development and improvement of the city. Qom metropolis, as one of the religious and historical cities of Iran with a cultural-religious role at the national level, hosts a large number of tourists every year, but the tourists who stay in the city are very few and it seems that the city can find a solution. Have. development of the city. This research analyzes the composition of branding of Qom in metropolitan areas and finally determines the position and level of the metropolis based on branding ranking. The current research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of its nature and research method. The researcher's self-made questionnaire was used in the field method. The face validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by a panel of experts (30 people). The reliability of the questionnaire was obtained using Cronbach's alpha formula in SPSS 19 software equal to 0.76. TOPSIS method was used to rank the regions and Arc GIS 11 was used to produce the maps. Based on the obtained results, the 4th region of Qom city is in a favorable condition and the 2nd region is in an unfavorable condition, and the city of Qom is in an average condition in terms of management, physical and social, and in an unfavorable condition in terms of economy. Since the commercial and economic indicators of Qom metropolis are in a bad situation, paying attention to the increase of capital in the city can improve the urban environment, which as a result can be achieved as a resistance economy. From a physical point of view, it is necessary to pay attention to the fact that the elements and symbols of the city are permanent in the minds of the beneficiaries of the city.
Behroz Ghadar, Sadegh Besharatifar, Zarin Forougi Forougi,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
Abstract
Evaluation of indicators of sustainable development, as the axis of human excellence, is the dominant basis of urban planning and land management and has a decisive role in spatial dispersion and the formation of environmental behavior of human societies. The method of this research is descriptive-analytical and its main tool is a researcher-made questionnaire. Data were collected using library and survey methods (questionnaire tool). The statistical population is 35 neighborhoods of Bandar Mahshahr that the sample size through Cochran's formula with 95% confidence level using the number of households in Mahshahr 382 people who through simple random sampling in the neighborhood has distributed a questionnaire. Based on the research criteria, the results show that the neighborhoods of Bandar Mahshahr are in a state of instability and the severity of instability is different between them. So that in the selected indicators from the 35 neighborhoods, only neighborhoods 1, 2, 6, 15, 16, 17, 19 are at a stable level and other neighborhoods (28) are in an unstable situation, this situation is affected by their position in It is the spatial structure of the city, which has led to the formation of neighborhood inequalities in terms of indicators of social stability and segregation. The results of route analysis have shown that all economic, social, physical, environmental and spatial justice indicators have a positive and significant effect on sustainable development of Mahshahr city, among which the economic index has the greatest effect on sustainable development of urban areas.
Keywords: evaluation, sustainable development, neighborhoods, planning, Mahshahr
M Saeed Maleki, M Mahsa Delfannasab, J Javad Yousefvand,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
Correct analysis of the housing market situation and correct knowledge of the factors affecting housing, especially in terms of its price and the extent of the impact of each of them, can help planners and officials in the correct analysis and forecast of the future situation and appropriate Provide appropriate solutions. The aim of this study was to identify the drivers of housing price in Khorramabad. Theoretical data were prepared by documentary method and experimental data by survey method based on Delphi method. The statistical population of the study is 30 experts and specialists in the field of housing in Khorramabad city were selected by purposive sampling. Delphi methods, cross-sectional analysis and MicMac software were used to analyze the data. For this purpose, first 23 factors were identified by Delphi method and using descriptive questionnaires by experts. In the next step, the matrix of cross-effects was designed to measure the impact of factors on each other and provided to experts. Finally, out of a total of 23 initial factors affecting housing prices in Khorramabad, 12 factors were identified as key factors of the system. Size: Household income, land price, building density, number of units and floors, access to urban facilities and services, population density, geographical location of lands, uninhabited future uses, number of rooms, security status, size of property plots, demand status.
Miss Tara Heidari Orojloo, Dr Afshin Afshin Ghorbani Param, Dr Faramrz Hasanpour,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
The climatic conditions of each region of Iran are important parameters in the design and provision of thermal comfort in the design of housing. The purpose of this study is to provide appropriate models of climate design in Shiraz according to thermal comfort indicators. The research method in terms of descriptive-analytical nature and using modeling software (simulation) will be powerful Grasshopper software and is based on applied purpose. Climatic elements of Shiraz city in Ladybug plugin, download epw file of Shiraz city has been extracted from this method and in Ladybug plugin has been used for the simulation process. Then, using software to extract climate tables, diagrams of flowerbeds, and solar conveyors for optimal orientation for buildings, psychrometric diagrams were extracted to achieve the best design solutions compatible with the climate. The results of the research shows. The city of Shiraz in winter and spring, in the climate comfort zone and this situation is the same in February, March, and April, ie in terms of the temperature of these months (except 13 to 16 April) outside the climate comfort range Is located. ; In addition to placing most of the windows on the south side, the use of auxiliary heating equipment is also necessary. In June, July, August, and September, it is above the comfort level, so in addition to materials with high thermal mass, suitable canopies, as well as the use of a water cooler can bring the conditions inside the building closer to the comfort range.
Ph.d Khalaf Anafjeh, Email: Moosa_ka@pnu.ac.ir, Ph.d Masoud Safaipour, Ph.d Abdulnabi Sharifi,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
This paper tries to equip the 5 strategic drivers of the urban poverty system in the target areas of the research wich have the ability to management,manipulate and trace their effects through the regeneration process with poverty reduction policies in order to improve the state of the system in the mentioned arias.considering the basic necessity of economy–based organization of space, the aim of this paper is to regeneration and reform of structures of urban poverty in the target neighborhoods with a future studies approach.the type of research is applicable and its investigation method is descriptive-analytical based on newest future studies approach,normative in nature.after preparing the balance analysis of the possible states (uncertainty scenarios),extracting the qualitative judgments of 30 experts about the mutual influence of network relations through Delphi survey and algoritmic analysis of data using cib method in the scenario wizard software become possible.consideringthe size of the matrix and its demensions of (15*15) scenario wizard software analyzed the number of 3657 combined scenarios based on the data entered in the questionnaire and the number of 5 strong or probable scenarios,14 scenarios with high compatibility(belivable scenarios) and they reported 28 weack scenarios (possible scenarios) that finally,after verification and validation by experts,four scenarios were descriptively named with the title of m-a,m-sh,h-ha,z.s-j.in the end by using the thematic macro -rends that are introduced as technical tools of future –based economic intervantions in the regeneration process.for each driver,poverty reduction policies were formulated and proposed in the form of thematic measures based on desirable scenarios to reform urban poverty structures.
Mrs Arezoo Momenian, Dr Morteza Mirgholami, Dr Azita Balali Oskoyi, Dr Aida Maleki,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
Considering that more than one third of energy consumption is related to residential areas, proper planning and design of neighborhoods according to the climatic conditions of each region can be an effective step towards reducing energy consumption. It aims to optimize energy consumption in the residential blocks of Rushdieh neighborhood in Tabriz. Investigating and understanding the energy consumption situation in Rushdieh neighborhood of Tabriz, its capabilities and bottlenecks in planning is very important, if they are not paid attention to and there are no efficient strategic plans, it will lead to an increase in social, economic and environmental instability. According to its nature, the research method is descriptive-analytical and practical in terms of purpose. It is related to the intended goals of the research, the statistical population of the research is the professors, experts and elites of urban planning, which has been used to examine the indicators and strategies. The method of selecting people was targeted and snowball. Finally, the results showed that the formulation of policies, practical measures to improve the design of main roads and local accesses in the direction of neighborhood air conditioning should be emphasized as the most important strategy. In order to reduce energy consumption, the development of neighborhood design policies and residential blocks with the goals of using wind energy to reduce energy consumption have been placed in the second and third ranks of this prioritization, respectively.
Dr Mohammad Hossein Nasserzadeh, Dr Alireza Karbalai Derai, Mr Mohammad Siah Kamari,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
Drought is one of the natural disasters whose long-term effects affect the economy and society. This phenomenon is considered a challenge in arid and semi-arid regions, including Iran. Nowadays, the use of remote sensing methods can help us in understanding the drought behavior of vegetation. In order to monitor and analyze the behavior of drought in Kermanshah province, the data of Sanjande Weathers products (VIIRS) and AVHRR data indexed by NOAA STAR were used. In this study, the Vegetation Health Index was used in the period of 1982-2021 in a seven-day format with a spatial resolution of 4 x 4 km. After extracting the data in the Kermanshah area, the vegetation drought trend was investigated on 65,387 cells using the Mann-Kendall test. The results showed that in the winter season, the trend of vegetation cover in the western areas of the province was decreasing and significant at the level of 0.05. While in the northern, central and eastern regions of the province, the trend is increasing and significant. In the spring and summer seasons, especially the months of June, July, August and September, which correspond to the dry months of the year, the size of the areas with a significant decreasing trend of vegetation cover has increased, while in the autumn season, with the beginning of the water year, the size of the areas with a decreasing trend has decreased.
Ph.d Elnaz Piroozi, Ph.d Sayyad Asghari Saraskanrood, Ph.d Batool Zeinali,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
Landslides are among the most common and destructive natural hazards that change the shape of the earth's surface, and reviewing the damages caused by landslides, the need to investigate the factors influencing the occurrence of this phenomenon and predict its occurrence. proves that Khalkhal City, due to its special geological, climatic, and geomorphological characteristics and human activities, has been affected by the risk of landslides for a long time. Therefore, considering the importance of the issue; The purpose of this research is to produce a landslide risk map in this city. In this regard, first, the distribution map of landslides and influencing variables, including; DEM, slope, aspect, land use, lithology, distance from fault, distance from river, distance from road, and rainfall were provided. Next, after the fuzzy membership and determining the weight values of each factor using the CRITIC method, the landslide susceptibility map was prepared using the MARCOS multi-criteria decision-making method. The results of the study showed, respectively; that The factors of slope, land use, and lithology with weight coefficients of 0.148, 0.139, and 0.132 have the greatest influence on the occurrence of landslides in the region. According to the results of the research, respectively; 707.14 and 512.87 square kilometers of the area of the city are in high-risk and very high-risk categories, and these areas are areas that need management work and the implementation of protection projects. Also, considering the use of the ROC curve method the area under the curve (0.89), and the correlation of 0.83% between the final map obtained from the research and the distribution of sliding surfaces, the accuracy of the MARCOS method in identifying and zoning prone areas The risk of landslides in Khalkhal city is great.
- Zahra Ghorbanalimezerji, - Hamdollah Sojasi Qedari, - Khadijeh Bozargomehri,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
Religious events in a region show the beliefs and sanctity of that place by humans; Rituals and celebrations can have economic and social benefits for the region. Therefore, by examining and analyzing the economic and social effects of events, it is possible to help organize better and more diverse events and tourism in the region. Therefore, in this research, the main goal is to evaluate the impact of religious events tourism on the social and economic dimensions of villages. The current research is descriptive-analytical in terms of methodology and practical in terms of purpose. The statistical population studied consisted of 323 heads of households living in 6 selected villages that organize religious events in Nishabur county and new county of Zabarkhan. SPSS software was used to analyze the findings. The findings of the research show that the highest average belongs to the social dimension with an average of 1.94. Also, the analysis of factors using chi-square (x2) and inferential statistics, normality, one-sample t-test, analysis of variance, Friedman, independent t-test were used. The tests showed that the social and economic effects of tourism of religious events in the studied villages are low, and the people of the region considered the ideological and spiritual nature of the event and did not pay attention to its tourism characteristics. Therefore, it is suggested to provide the necessary infrastructure for holding religious events in rural areas as well as possible, and to conduct more researches in this connection, as well as to create a suitable economic environment and increase employment during events, to prepare brochures or resumes for introduction. area or local event to be addressed.
Hossein Asakereh, Mansureh Taheri,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
One of the climatic characteristics of temperature is the occurrence of extreme temperature. In the present study, the trend of hot days with extreme temperature associated with the coastal plains of the Persian Gulf was investigated. Two environmental and atmospheric databases were used. Environmental data include the average of daily maximum temperature reported from 12 synoptic stations in Persian Gulf coastline (Khuzestan, Bushehr, and Bandar Abbas Provinces) from 1961 to the end of 2018. The extreme temperature for each day temperature was defined to be higher than the average of 75th percentile of the observations at each station and on the same day. Also, the ‘day with extreme temperature’ was applied to a day when the extreme temperature occurred in at least 50% of the stations. The number of hot days with extreme temperature in the study is 554 days, of which 291 days occurred in the warm season and 263 days in the cold season. These days were classified into six groups by performing cluster analysis on sea-level pressure in hot days. Then, for each group, the trend of hot days was examined. In general, it can be concluded that the slope of the line in all groups except the fourth and sixth groups were positive and, as a result, hot days with extreme temperature were increasing.
Mahdi Frotan, Majid Rezaei Banafsheh Daragh ,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
Climate change is a significant threat to water resources, potentially altering precipitation patterns and increasing the likelihood of droughts in certain regions. This study aims to project future drought conditions in the Aras Downstream Watershed for the period 2025-2050, employing CMIP6 climate models (NorESM2-LM, CanESM5, and MPI-ESM1-2-HR) and the CMhyd software. Historical daily precipitation data from the selected models were compared with data from five stations (Parsabad, Aslan Duz, Jafarabad, Dasht, and Shorgol) within the study watershed. The comparison was conducted using statistical metrics (R2, MAE, MSE, and RMSE), and the results indicated the superior performance of the MPI-ESM1-2-HR model in precipitation estimation. This model was bias-corrected using the LS method in the CMhyd software, and future precipitation was projected based on the outputs of three scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was employed on a three-month timescale to assess drought conditions. The findings revealed that the overall region will experience normal conditions based on SPI classifications. However, there will be a relatively higher potential for drought in the southern part of the watershed under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios compared to SSP1-2.6. The analysis of the network station averages indicated that the optimistic scenario suggests favorable conditions for the watershed, while the intermediate and pessimistic scenarios suggest a contrasting picture, with drought becoming prevalent across the entire region in the coming decades.
