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Farzaneh Sasanpour, , ,
Volume 17, Issue 47 (12-2017)

Urbanization bubble is a new concept in urban planning issues for examining sustainability at various levels of social, economic, environmental, and management. So far, no common definition provided for urbanization bubble that indicate a lack of research in this field. This research aimed at assessing futures studies of urbanization bubble in Tehran metropolitan with focus on scenario planning. Research method in term of purpose is applied and in term of method is exploratory descriptive analytic one. Required data gathered through field study and document review. In field studies, Delphi technique performed in the form of a group of 30 people. For data analyzing, cross impact analyzes used in MICMAC software. Results indicate that 56 factors identified as key factors in five institutional, managerial, economic, social and environmental dimensions affecting future condition of urbanization bubble. Then, based on experts’ comments, 25 agents identified. Dispersion of the variables indicates the instability of Tehran's metropolitan system. Five categories of influential, dual, regulatory, influential and independent factors identified. Final scores and ranking of key factors carried out and finally, three scenarios presented for the future status of urbanization bubble in Tehran metropolitan.
Hamideh Afsharmanesh, Zahra Hejazizadeh, Bohloul Alijani,
Volume 21, Issue 61 (6-2021)

Climate predictions have been made in global, regional and local simulation, and climatic parameters have changed in terms of trends and models in climatology, futures studies are less visible in literature and climatology literature therefore environmental planning and futures analysis are an attempt to look at the long-term future in the field of climatology. Today, one of the most important challenges of the present and future is the increase in temperature and   is the lack of climatic comfort. The growth of Tehran's metropolitan area, improving living standards, expanding urbanization and industry, climate change, and the energy shortage crisis are important. The survey forms were prepared by the climatologists and managers of Tehran and data analysis, futuristic techniques such as scenario for data analysis tool in this study was MICMAC software. have been used. In the research process, the most important key factors and drivers in relation to futures studies were identified in relation to the increase of temperature in the city of Tehran.
Mini scenarios and a comprehensive scenario were defined in three cases:
  1. Improvement of the Micro-Climatic Conditions of Tehran City + Climatic Comfort of Citizens
  2. Lack of  good micro-climate in Tehran + low climatic comfort of citizens
  3. The lack of improvement in the micro-climatic situation in Tehran + the lack of climate comfort for citizens and increased energy consumption
According to the results of the study, the most important factors in creating a crisis of rising surface temperature can be the lack of attitude to the concept of micro-climate improvement and urban management.
Farnaz Izadi, Atefeh Ahmadi, Farzin Charehjoo,
Volume 21, Issue 62 (10-2021)

Future study as an emerging knowledge is the evolutionary form of strategic planning. This knowledge has been used purposefully in recent years to meet the uncertainty and complexity of various dimension of issues and to designing the future of systems. In this regard, Kurdistan province in western Iran, despite the potential and actual capabilities, has not achieved the development appropriate with capacities and there are many structural problems in achieving this purpose. In this regard, the present study has examined the problems and challenges of lack of development in Kurdistan province with a descriptive-analytical and future study approach. The method of data collection is a survey and documentary studies. The problems and challenges and their effects on the development of the province have been identified to achieve results based on a semi-structured interview from elites and experts. MIC MAC software, environmental scanning method, and system analysis are used to analyzing the data. The results of the research in assessing the extent and the way of influencing of issues and challenges on each other and on the future status of development in Kurdistan province, respectively in the direct and indirect  effectiveness and impressionability, indicates that water crisis, poverty, lack of development of industry, unbalanced tourism and animal husbandry, environmental degradation and lack of access to health services, unemployment, and improper management of water facilities play a major role in the future of development in Kurdistan province
Dr Hossein Nazmfar, Miss Ameneh Alibakhshi,
Volume 21, Issue 63 (2-2022)

Tourism is one of the most important means of development in the world. Many countries in the world pay special attention to tourism as an effective tool for their political, cultural and economic development in their country's policies and programs. The present study was carried out in order to plan tourism in Ardebil province based on a futuristic study method. The present research is applied in a practical way as a combination of documentary and survey methods based on a futuristic approach. The research area of Ardabil province and the statistical population is 45 tourism experts, urban and regional planning and executive agencies of the province. Delphi method, cross-effects matrix (Wizard scenario software) and Wizard scenario software were used to analyze the data. Based on the findings of the Delphi method and environmental scanning, 88 factors were identified as influential factors in the development of tourism in Ardebil. In the second step, using the Micmac method, 14 key Factors, including the comprehensive tourism plan, the media, stimulus policies, macro policies of the state, distribution of facilities, infrastructure, recreational centers, increased private incentive to invest in the region, the region's susceptibility to Investment in tourism, planning, security facilities, budget, the existence of hot and mineral water springs, improvement of information systems, such as site and blog, have been identified as key to the development of Ardebil province. In the third step, based on key factors, believable futures were explained using the Wizard scenario method, which ultimately resulted in three strong, weak and believable scenarios. In this scenario, believable scenarios are due to the intermediate between scenarios Strong and weak, have been based on analysis. Accordingly, there are three scenarios named "Golden scenario", " believable scenario" and "Disaster scenario" for the future of tourism in Ardebil province.

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