Msc. Graduated Student Najmeh Daneshvar-Marvast, Dr Somayeh Soltani-Gerdefaramarzi, Dr Samaneh Poormohammadi,
Volume 19, Issue 55 (12-2019)
Abstract
The phenomenon of evapotranspiration causes water and moisture losses from water, soil and vegetation levels. Due to the small amount of atmospheric precipitation and water resource constraints in Iran, it is important to calculate it through a suitable method. The present research attempts to evaluate the evapotranspiration reference crop (ETo) and present it in the form of zoning map as a basic tool for water management. In this study, the long-term average of seven meteorological stations and evaporation pan data were used to determine the appropriate ETo estimation method. Evapotranspiration of reference crop was calculated to 14 methods the based on climatic information in each station. Computational methods including combinational methods Penman-based, radiation-temperature method, temperature method and radiation method. The most appropriate computational method was selected based on the R2 and Nash -Sutcliffe statistics. The zoning of evapotranspiration of reference crop was carried out based on the geographic information of the meteorological stations and the GIS software. The results of the research indicate that the best method for this region as the cold and moderate climate are FAO radiation and Blaney-Criddle. Also, the zoning result shows that west of the catchment has less evapotranspiration rather than its east. Sunshine hours, maximum temperature and wind speed were the most effective factors for evapotranspiration in this area by sensitivity analysis.
Mrs Somayeh Naderi, Prof. Bohloul Alijani, Prof. Zahra Hedjazizadeh, Dr. Hasan Heidari, Dr. Karim Abbaspour,
Volume 24, Issue 73 (8-2024)
Abstract
Evidence suggests that climate change will create uncertain regional agricultural production stability in the coming decades. This research investigated the impact of climate change on hydrology and sugar beet yield as one of the main crops in the Urmia lake basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). To address this, a baseline SWAT model was setup for 1986-2014. Afterward, the output was calibrated (1989-2004) and validated (2005-2014) in the SWAT-CUP software using the SUFI2 algorithm to simulate streamflow of 23 gauging stations and crop yield. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency was 0.43 and 0.53 for calibration and validation periods, sequentially. The Percent Bias was 45% and 16% for calibration and validation periods, respectively. As well as the agreement indices of 0.71 and the little Percent Bias (-6% to 10%) for crop production, verified the model's efficiency. The next step was downscaling and bias-correction of the precipitation and temperature data received from 3 climate models, namely GFDL, HadGEM2, and IPSL under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 using CCT program. Then, the downscaled data were fed to SWAT, and Finally, hydrological fluxes and sugar beet yield were estimated for 2021-2050. Despite a dispersion of precipitation changes ranging from -12% to +35% in most scenarios, results highlight the pivotal role that the warmer temperature (+2.7°C) increases evaporation, resulting in sharpened pressure on water resources and runoff, especially, at the beginning of crop growth season. Finally, the negative impacts on crop productivity (-45%) is not unexpected. This means that sugar beet may suffer from climate change impacts, and the production of this plant will change over the next period in this region.
Keywords: Climate Change, Sugar Beet, Urmia Lake Basin, Sensitivity Analysis, SWAT.
