Showing 10 results for Extreme
Hossein Asakereh, Mansureh Taheri,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
One of the climatic characteristics of temperature is the occurrence of extreme temperature. In the present study, the trend of hot days with extreme temperature associated with the coastal plains of the Persian Gulf was investigated. Two environmental and atmospheric databases were used. Environmental data include the average of daily maximum temperature reported from 12 synoptic stations in Persian Gulf coastline (Khuzestan, Bushehr, and Bandar Abbas Provinces) from 1961 to the end of 2018. The extreme temperature for each day temperature was defined to be higher than the average of 75th percentile of the observations at each station and on the same day. Also, the ‘day with extreme temperature’ was applied to a day when the extreme temperature occurred in at least 50% of the stations. The number of hot days with extreme temperature in the study is 554 days, of which 291 days occurred in the warm season and 263 days in the cold season. These days were classified into six groups by performing cluster analysis on sea-level pressure in hot days. Then, for each group, the trend of hot days was examined. In general, it can be concluded that the slope of the line in all groups except the fourth and sixth groups were positive and, as a result, hot days with extreme temperature were increasing.
Ali Reza Karbalaee Doree, Sayyed Mohammad Hosseini, ,
Volume 17, Issue 47 (12-2017)
Abstract
Air pollution is one of the most important natural hazards in cities that is one of the priorities of climate research. In this research, synoptic situation of days polluted by ozone in Tehran have been studied and by environmental to circulation approach and cluster analysis. At first, was formed a matrix in 2417*41. Rows are indicated days and columns represent the number of stations. by cluster analysis and Ward method eight different clusters were identified. The results showed that the frequency of the ozone days have a seasonal trend and more can be seen in the first half of year in these cases the establishment subtropical high pressure in Iran. Therefore, cause the persistency of pollution in Tehran.
Dr. Mostafa Karimi, Mis Fatemeh Sotoudeh, Dr. Somayeh Rafati,
Volume 18, Issue 48 (3-2018)
Abstract
Increasing CO2 emissions and consequently, air temperature causes climate anomalies which affects all the aspects of human life. The purpose of this study was to assess the temperature changes and also to predict the extreme temperatures in Gilan and Mazandaran Provinces. To do this, the SDSM statistical and dynamical model was used. As well, it was applied the Mann-Kendal graphical and statistical technique to analyze the temperature changes and its trend. In this regard, the daily temperature was obtained from Rasht, Ramsar and Babolsar synoptic stations during 1961 – 2010, and also the general circulation models data of HadCM3 and NCEP were collected from related databases. The results revealed a significant positive trend in monthly and annual minimum and maximum temperature in all three stations in the first (1961-2010) and third (1961-2040) periods. There is not a significant trend in extreme temperatures in Ramsar and maximum temperature in Rasht in the second period (2011-2040). The Mann-Kendal graphical test was used for the yearly extreme temperatures in all periods. The results showed that it was occurred both increasing trend and suddenly changes or shifts at the 95% confidence level in all stations. It is occurred the highest of changes in monthly and annual of the minimum temperature at forecasted period (2011-2040). It was predicted extreme temperature to increase about 0.1 to 1.7° C. The short time oscillations and significant positive trend occurred in both the maximum and minimum temperature shows the temperature increase and climate changes in the future. Thus it is obvious the decrease in temperature difference in warm and cold seasons.
Dr. Ebrahim Fattahi, Shookat Moghimi,
Volume 19, Issue 54 (9-2019)
Abstract
In this study in order to monitor snow cover, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) optical images were used, while for detection of snow covered areas, the snow index-NDSI, was applied. The results showed - according to the climatic conditions of the region- during the following months: December, January, February and March, most of the area is covered by snow and the maximum extent of snow cover occurred in January. In West Azerbaijan province there is found a negative trend of snow cover with a drastically reduction in January, as well as the provinces East Azerbaijan and Ardebil showed the decreasing of snow cover in this month. The results of this study show that, changes in snow cover imply a rise in temperature in this region leading to the reduction of snow cover in January. This trend represents global warming and climate change impacts on snow cover in the study area. Investigation of extreme indices confirms the assumption that by taking temperature increase into consideration, regional winter precipitation pattern has been changed from snow to rain, causing the reduction of snow storage in the catchment of study area. In addition ,the extreme temperature index study in the period of 2011- 2040 and the baseline by considering climate change approach in North West of Iran by using outputs of general circulation models under A2 scenario and downscaling models LARS-WG indicates the number of frost days or the number of icy days decreased compared to the baseline which is not unexpected according to reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as well as several studies confirmed global warming. Moreover, indices such as growth period increased, while diurnal temperature variation decreased compared to the baseline confirming snow cover reduction in the region as a threat of snow storage in the region.
Mr Shahram Emamgholi, Dr Gholam Reza Janbaz Ghobadi, Dr Parviz Rezaei, Dr Sadr Aldin Motevali,
Volume 21, Issue 63 (12-2021)
Abstract
Heat waves are of the most important climatic disasters, which have devastating environmental implications in the nature every year In this study. In this study, non-parametric statistics of trend analysis of Sens were used to investigate the trend of 30-year frequency series (1970- 2018) of hot-wave events in both hot days and hot waves (hot days with a duration of 2 days or more). At all stations, there was an increasing trend both in the number of hot days in Tehran and in the frequency of warm-wave events at 5 stations in Tehran. The main objective of this study is to investigate the population exposed hyperthermia in Tehran during hot waves and based on the frequency analysis of the recorded hot waves, the wave was selected from July 20 to July 28, 2013. Using spatial statistics analysis of hot spots, critical regions of Kermanshah were identified during heat wave and the population of high risk was obtained from demographic using tabular matrix analysis. The results showed that hot critical cores significantly affected areas 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15, 4, 7, and 19 during hot-wave days. Has done the average temperature of this hot thermal core averaged more than 43 ° C during two warm waves. In this hot thermal core that significantly rises in temperature during the heat wave, there are a total of 2954485 people in Tehran, which is 35% of the population of Tehran. Also, in this core, there are 13,000 statistical blocks, which is 40% of the total population of Tehran.
Sahar Nasiri, Boroumand Salahi, Aliakbar Rasouli, Faramarz Khoshakhlagh,
Volume 22, Issue 66 (9-2022)
Abstract
Atmospheric circulation is important to determine the surface climate and environment, and affect regional climate and surface features. In this study, to quantify its effect, the classification system, developed by Lamb is applied to obtain circulation information for Ardabil, North West Province in Iran, on a daily basis, and is a method to classify synoptic weather for study area. For that purpose, daily mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) for extreme precipitation days from 1971 to 2007 is used to derive six circulation indices and to provide a circulation catalogue with 27 circulation types. The frequency of circulation types over different periods is computed and described. Five circulation types are most recognised in this study: E, SE, A, C and CSE. The catalogue and the associated indices provide a tool to interpret the regional climate and precipitation, and deal with the linkage between the mean extreme regional precipitations in north western of Iran and the large-scale circulation. Five circulation types E, A, SE, C and CSE are associated with high precipitation and rainy seasons (spring and September) but the most precipitation rate is resulted of cyclone family. Low pressure of north latitudes and central area of Iran with low pressure of gang from Pakistan and India. SE is almost dominant circulation type over the years. The cold season started from august to march is characterized by frequent directional flows, especially E, SE, A, C and CSE whereas in warm period (Apr–Aug) SE, NE, AE have smaller role, especially in July, August and September more frequent flows dominated by SE and E.
Zahra Hejazizadeh, Sharifeh Zarei, ,
Volume 23, Issue 69 (6-2023)
Abstract
Abstract
In recent years, attention has been paid to climate change, which could be the result of economic, social, and financial losses associated with extreme weather events. The purpose of this study is to investigate the variation of extreme temperature and precipitation in Kurdistan province. For this purpose, daily rainfall data, minimum temperature and maximum temperature of 6 stations were used during the statistical period (1990-1990). And their changes during the period (2041-2060) using the universal HadGEM2 model under two scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 and the LARS-WG6 statistical downscaling were investigated. In order to study the trend of climatic extreme indexes, rainfall and temperature indices were analyzed using RClimdex software. The results showed that during the period (2016-1990), hot extreme indicators have a positive and incremental trend. This trend is significant for the "number of summer days" and "maximum monthly of maximum daily temperature" indicators. This is while the cold extreme indexes had a decreasing and negative trend. This trend was significant only for the "cold days" index. Extreme precipitation in Kurdistan province has a negative trend in most stations. ،this trend is significant at most stations, that indicates a reduction in the severity, duration and frequency of precipitation during the study period. The results of the climate change outlook also indicate that the temperature will increase over the next period and rainfall will decrease.
Kaveh Mohammadpour, Mohammad Saligheh, Tayeb Raziei, Ali Darvishi Bloorani,
Volume 24, Issue 72 (3-2024)
Abstract
Mineral Dust, the most important type of aerosol, has a significant direct and indirect role in weather and climate. In this case, it intend to investigate the capability and capability of MACC model validated by MODIS for detection of dust episodes in the Kurdistan province during 2003-2012. To achieve that, we analysis satellite and model data using Man-Kendall trend and statistical tests. The results of the temporal distribution indicated that the mean Aerosol Optical depth (AOD) in 2008 was 0.36 and its lowest was 29.04 for 2004. In addition, average AOD in menthioned year was 0.036, 0.335, 0.385, 0.377 and 0.3368 for the cities of Sanandaj, Saqez, Ghorveh, Kamyaran, Marivan, respectively. The spatial distribution of AOD average in different seasons showed that winter and autumn had the lowest amount and spring, and summer season had the highest AOD. AOD's monthly spatial distribution showed that high dust belonging to April-August period to covers completely interested area.The results of the Man-Kendall test showed that the area had a significant positive trend in the spring season throughout the province and the summer season in the east of the province. Therefore, the spring season in the area known Extreme Season and June 19, 2009 between the five days of the dust extreme is as an extreme episode with an average AOD of 1.16 and a horizontal visibility of less than two kilometers that it have the highest and most widespread mineral dust. In general, the results of the MACC with multidimensional approach showed that optical depth (AOD, DOD) is a more appropriate criterion than horizontal visibility in determining dust storm.
Hadi Zerafati, Yousef Ghavidel, Manuchehr Farajzadeh,
Volume 24, Issue 72 (3-2024)
Abstract
In this study, for statistical studies to determine days whit temperature above 50°c, the reanalyzed data of the nineteenth, twentieth and twenty-first centuries for the West Asia region (12 to 42.5 degrees north latitude and 36 to 63.5 degrees east longitude) have been used. Also, for synoptic analysis of extreme temperatures, HGT, AIR, UWND, VWND and SLP data were used. To conduct this research, first, extreme temperature data above 50° during the last 185 years were extracted for the study area in the hot season (June, July, August and September). After identifying days whit above 50° c, HGT data at the level of 500 hp were extracted and WARD clustering was applied. Finally, after identifying the clusters, the days whit the highest temperature that occurred in each cluster were selected for synoptic analysis. It can be said that all altitude patterns of geopotential meters (HGT) at the level of 500 hp show that the main cause of occurrence and distribution of temperatures above 50°c in West Asia are high-altitude (high-pressure) subtropical West Asia, which due to the location of its high-pressure core on the Zagros and sometimes the Arabian Peninsula, it has been referred to as the Zagros or Saudi high-pressure in terms of interest and taste. What is certain, however, is the high-pressure independent identity of the subtropical Azores, which has been mentioned in numerous articles and is known to be the main cause of the heat in the West Asian region, especially Iran.
Zohreh Maryanji, Fatemeh Sotoudeh, Meysam Toulabi Nejad, Ziba Zarrin,
Volume 25, Issue 77 (6-2025)
Abstract
Understanding and predicting future climatic conditions and characteristics is essential because of their importance in all aspects of life. This study seeks to examine the process of modifying temperatures in the Hamedan region by using Downscaling data to predict the public circulation data and its changes. The Lars Explore Downscaling Model has been used to fine-tune the data of the General Transport Model (HADGEM2-ES) and the paired model (CMIP5) and under the three release scenarios RCP2.5, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). Estimates of the correlation of simulated data and actual data show values of more than 0.95 for all months. P_value also showed the statistical tests of model output, acceptable values in model performance in production and simulation. As a result, the data were extracted from 2011 to 2050. Data were examined in three intervals to detect trend changes. The results show that in the optimistic scenario (RCP2.5) there is no tangible trend in the mean and minimum temperature, while in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario there are significant trends in temperature data and accordingly increase the minimum temperature, according to the increase in the minimum temperature, according to the increase in the minimum temperature, according to the increase 1 degree in the average temperature. It shows severe climate change that, especially in the cold season, changes the type of precipitation. Also, based on the data process, the significant increase in the average annual and monthly scale temperature in all three scenarios under study will indicate the environmental crisis ahead.