Haniyeh Asadzadeh, Tajaldin Karami, Farzaneh Sasanpour, Ali Shamaie,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
Today, due to structural changes in the economy, rapid developments in science and technology, restrictions on financial and human resources, the interdependence of countries, global competition, increasing desire for globalization, the need for a better understanding of "change" and "future" for governments, businesses, organizations, organizations And people demand it. To this end, futures studies help policymakers and planners to design appropriate development programs by establishing communication, coordination, and collaboration between organizations and institutions. This research is applied in terms of practical purpose and in terms of the nature and method of descriptive-analytical research and in terms of exploratory scenario modelling. Data were collected through documentary and field methods. In the field method, the researcher-made questionnaire was provided to the experts in the form of a mutual matrix for scoring factors. 30 experts were selected by Delphi method. The distribution of questionnaires was also unlikely. Mick McMurphy software was used to analyze the data. The results indicate that the system of Tehran's urban area is in an unstable state. Also, the ten driving forces, including the ideologies of the ruling ideology, integrated management, expanding the infrastructure of information and communication technology, e-commerce, expanding economic competitiveness, economic branding, electronic management system, political transparency, facilitating the entry of multinational corporations, expanding urban diplomacy as drivers Influential ones were extracted in the development of Tehran's urban area. Finally, the scenarios facing the development of Tehran's urban area showed that there are eight scenarios, the first scenario with the highest probability of occurrence has 9 pessimistic and one pessimistic.
Salman Kazemian Souraki , Fereshteh Nasrollahi, Amin Deilami Moazzi,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
Shia political Islam, centered around Iran, is a complex and dynamic phenomenon that has undergone numerous transformations in recent decades. Understanding the future trends of this intellectual and political movement is of great importance to analysts, politicians, and the general public. This article employs a futures studies approach to examine the trends of Shia political Islam within Iran's political geography. This foresight approach allows us to look beyond the current situation and outline various scenarios for the future of politics and society in Iran. The methodology of this research is descriptive-analytical, utilizing library and documentary sources, including qualitative and quantitative analysis of historical data, expert interviews, and content analysis of media and religious texts. The research findings indicate that Shia political Islam in Iran's geography is undergoing a period of transformation, influenced by various factors such as demographic changes, social and economic developments, and geopolitical shifts. Several potential scenarios for the future of Shia political Islam in Iran's political geography are presented, including: the Continuity Scenario, the Reform Scenario, the Radicalism Scenario, and the Secularism Scenario. Considering these scenarios, the analysis of probable trends and events in the scenarios, and political and security developments with a view to challenges and opportunities in the Middle East region, the Islamic Republic of Iran, adhering to the Continuity Scenario along with the Reform Scenario, aims to strengthen republicanism (religious democracy) while emphasizing the preservation of independence and indigenous Islamic identity in the region, and to have a more prominent presence in the Middle East.
