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Abstract
In this research, while studying climate conditions in the current period and analyzing changes in temperature, precipitation level, and the sunlight received, current conditions were also analyzed based on daily data from synoptic stations in the region, which had meteorological data recorded for at least 30 years. Given the environmental conditions necessary for the growth of rice, the availability of its phenological data, its high-low temperature thresholds, the Degree Day systems needed for the completion of its life cycle, and the phenological processes related to its economic production, a suitable agricultural calendar was specified. During the March-July period, this calendar showed variations in different provinces. Based on the current temperature conditions and the probable continued warming trend of the planet in the decades to come, nwoDscale was applied to the output from the atmospheric general circulation model MCdaH3 under  scenario using LARS-WG5 model. In this study, years between 1969 and 1990 were used as the base period, while years between 2046 and 2065 were studied as the future period. Temperature and precipitation conditions for the future period were simulated. Obtained output was then studied and compared with temperature conditions that were suitable for the plant to grow in the region. With some differences, results showed that the agricultural calendar for rice in Gilan and Mazandaran provinces will shift to winter. Given the different temperature conditions of Golestan province, its agricultural calendar will shift to spring.
 

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Global warming and temperature rise will have many effects on different sectors, including agriculture, the warming of the earth will increase the rate of evaporation, and consequently the increase in the demand for agricultural products will increase. In this study, in order to monitor the effect of global warming on Mughan Plain wheat, using the LARS-WG model as a relatively inexpensive and accurate instrument for producing climate multi-yearly climate change scenarios On a daily basis, In Ardabil province, Germi Station was selected as the representative of the three stations in the study area due to the data in the appropriate statistical period. In the present study, to monitor the effect of global warming on precipitation fluctuations, as well as in the production and cultivation of wheat crop in Moghan plain, the LARS-WG model and the HADCM3 climate model output under A1B scenario as well as climate data (minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation and Daily Sunshine) The Germys station was used over a 14 year period (2004-2007).The results of the research show that by comparing the monthly mean of these parameters, this result was obtained that at confidence level 1 there is not a significant difference between the simulation data from the model and observational data in the base period and the mean The climatic parameters of the data obtained from the model and the actual data are similar and there is a high correlation between them. Finally, by comparing observational monthly meanings and modeling of climatic elements of precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures and sunshine were shown using statistical parameters RMSE, MAE, NA and R² The model (LARS-WG5) is used to accurately simulate daily data in the parameters of the Mughan Plain, Ardebil province. The results of this study showed that the average decrease in yield of irrigated wheat and the decrease of its production in the study area could be due to the decrease of precipitation and the increase of the regional temperature which is due to global warming.