Showing 4 results for National Security
Dr Ahmad Rashidi Nejad, Dr Murad Kaviani Rad, Dr Afshin Mottaghi,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
Security complex represents a unique group of countries where the process of "security building" and "making insecure" or both for this group of countries are increasingly related with each other. In other words, their main security concern is so intertwined that their security problems cannot be solved independently. Thus conceived, "hydropolitic complexes" include those countries which are geographically the owner and from technical point of view, are the user of part of the shared river. In fact, a group of the countries which are considered to be part of a region due to their water resources (rivers, lakes and aquifers), would have no common geographical borders but their "national security" and "hydropolitic security" are so interrelated that their security and hydropolitc problems cannot be resolved without their cooperation. The methodology of current descriptive-analytic study focused on Mesopotamia and Hirmand drainage basins (in parts of Iran), is grounded on the hypothesis that in a hydropolitic complex in the same way that the threatening of water security of each one of the member states might lead to the threatening of national security of other members, some threats can be posed against the water security of each one of the member states due to the threatening of the national security of other members. The data required for this research have been collected using library sources (books, journals and internet). The results of this study showed that how hydropolitic security is endangered following the eruption of insecurity in Afghanistan. At Tigris and Euphrates Basin, the climate changes and Turkey's inattention to hydropolitic security of Syria (by closing the floodgates of the dams) provided the ground for the emergence of internal crisis in Syria, and its reverberations posed serious threats against the security of Turkey, Iraq and Iran.
Miss Parisa .ghorbanisepehr, Dr Afshin Mottaghi, Dr Arash .ghorbanisepehr,
Volume 0, Issue 0 (3-1921)
Abstract
Extra-regional threats refer to a set of military, security, political, and economic measures or pressures exerted by countries or coalitions from outside a specific geographical region against the interests and security of a country. These threats typically exploit geographical distance, modern warfare tools, comprehensive sanctions, and the establishment of influence in neighboring countries to undermine stability and limit the regional power of the target. This research has been conducted with the aim of identifying and analyzing the key drivers affecting trans-regional threats to Iran using a future studies approach, in order to analyze the systemic structure of these threats and outline the most probable scenario ahead. The method of this research is mixed (quantitative-qualitative). For this purpose, initial indicators were extracted through multi-stage interviews with a panel of 15 experts and then screened using the Delphi method. In the next stage, a cross-impact analysis questionnaire was administered to 15 specialists and experts, and the data were structurally analyzed using MICMAC software. The distribution of variables on the influence-dependence map indicates the instability of Iran's trans-regional threats system. Among the 49 variables examined across five dimensions—political, economic, socio-cultural, defense-security, and natural-environmental—three variables were identified as the most key drivers and as dual-risk/target variables: new regional coalitions in Iran's periphery involving global powers (P3), pressure on countries party to agreements with Iran to terminate cooperation (P7), and new trans-regional political coalitions against Iran's political positions (P1). Furthermore, the variable "keeping the minds of the country's decision-makers occupied with domestic issues" (P8) ranked first in terms of direct influence. The results of the research indicate that the future of trans-regional threats to Iran can be depicted in the form of the "Intelligent Siege" scenario. In this scenario, trans-regional powers, through regional and trans-regional coalition-building and severing Iran's contractual ties with the world, drive the country toward strategic passivity and reduced room for maneuver without a full-scale military war. The paradigm shift of threats from a purely military nature to political, cognitive, and intelligent threats is the most important characteristic of the future of these threats.
Dr. Morad Kavianirad, Dr Yadollah Karimi Pour, Dr. Hedayat Fahmi, Mr. Sadegh Karami,
Volume 17, Issue 46 (9-2017)
Abstract
Efforts to provide security have always been of great importance to human being. In recent decades, the security issues of climate change have attracted attentions due to its sustainable consequences on the lives and civilization of humans. Among all countries, the ones which are placed in draught belt, like our country Iran, have hurt a lot because of low precipitations and also mismanagements in water resources control. Climate change show itself by changes in precipitation patterns, reduction of precipitation and increasing of temperature. According to the present data, Iran's central drainage basin which consists of important geopolitical provinces, has been affected by the above mentioned factors. This descriptive-analytic research is carried out based on the effects of climate change on Iran's central basin which provides approximately 48 percent of Iran’s GDP. Continuity of climate changes in this region can make critical problems in social, environmental, economic and political scales and the lives of the citizens would be affected as well. To conclude, the persistence of the current conditions in climate change in the central drainage basin of Iran, would result in challenges through the national stability and security.
Morad Kaviani Rad, Afshin Mottaghi, Hadi Zarghani, Hasan Sadrania,
Volume 19, Issue 55 (12-2019)
Abstract
One of the problems in analyzing hydro-political relations in the system of international rivers is that the same factors can create a wide range of conflict or cooperation, and even an identical variable may play a different role in relation to other variables in each coastal country; Therefore, the recognition of the variables and the role that each variable has in developing a pattern of analysis of opportunities and risks for countries that share transboundary waters with other countries is essential. Iran is in the Harirud basin shared with Afghanistan. The presence of this basin in a dry and semi-arid strip of world has caused Iran's dependence on the water of Harirud to provide water to the east and northwest, and especially to the metropolis of Mashhad. Therefore, the research question is: What are the variables and indicators effective on the Strategic Importance of Harirud for Iran? For this purpose, 86 indicators were identified using library and field studies and categorized in geographical-geopolitical, technical-economical, and political-social variables in expert meetings with experts. After identifying the most important variables using the Delphi method, the role of each variable in the structural analysis of the variables has been investigated with the help of the Micmac software. The results indicate that geopolitical -geographical variables are the most effective and Most impressive variables, and indicators of the importance of Harirud for drinking water, food security, security of water resources and Afghanistan's position in Iran's foreign policy, strategic indicators for the importance of Heriud for Iran.
