Showing 3 results for Anomalies
Yosouf Ghavidel Rahimi, Manochehr Farajzadeh, Mehdi Alijahan,
Volume 15, Issue 36 (6-2015)
Abstract
Global warming and the meaningful relationship between temperature and precipitation changes over different areas of the earth with temperature increment of the earth, are considered as the most important patterns of this century’s climate changes. Today, there is debate over climate change and global temperatures increasing. Damaging effects of this phenomenon on the planet is one of the most challenging issues in global scale. Because of this, the research ahead is done for the detection of global warming on maximum temperatures, monthly and periodic (hot and cold) as well. For this study, two groups of data, temperature data of 17 synoptic stations and corresponding amounts of data in global temperature anomalies were figured out over 60 years period of time (1951 to 2010). Goals, the Pearson correlation method for detecting relationships between data's, linear and polynomial regression for trend analysis time series data , To illustrate the correlation between the spatial distribution of temperature data with global warming stations nationwide Geostatistical model Finally, non-parametric test for detecting significant temperature change Man - Kendall were used. According to the results impact of global warming on the maximum temperature in the cold months like January, December and November should be much lower, and the highest in spring and summer season in the southern stations such as Abadan, Ahwaz and Shiraz seen. The above process is also evident in periods of hot and cold temperatures and the influence of the stations temperature of the warm period of global warming were higher than cold period and represent an increase in the temperature of the warm period of years. In between, the number of stations as well as Anzali, Urmia and Khorramabad stations in some months had the opposite influence of global warming and seen drop in the maximum temperatures of them. It is also observed in the results obtained from the analysis period. Station's maximum temperature trend change is represents significant in the summer month. Changes trend in the months of July, August and September, is significant that the process is more pronounced in the southern stations. Significant analysis trend changes have been taken in periods (cold and hot) in studied stations indicative of its significance in warm period.
Faramarz Khoshakhlagh, Mohammad Amin Heydary,
Volume 15, Issue 37 (9-2015)
Abstract
Climate control centers in each area are diverse and understanding how they relate to the atmospheric components of the Earth's surface contribute to prediction of climate fluctuations. In this study, by using Pearson's correlation and multivariate regression in a thirty-year period (1961-2010), the relationship between widespread rainfall anomalies in entire of Iran west with temperature and pressure of atmospheric centers in East and West of Mediterranean Sea in 5 atmospheric levels (SLP, 850, 500 and 300 Hpa) were analyzed and modeled. Based on the results, the correlation of atmospheric control centers in the East and West Mediterranean Sea with anomalies of rainfall in West of Iran is inverse and meaningful in 95% level. In this study, statistical indicators such as temperature differences and standardized pressure between West and East Mediterranean sea were identified as the most important indicators in relation to changes of rainfall in the study area. Based on the designed indicators, whenever indicators DT and DH is positive, this means higher temperature and higher atmospheric standardized pressure in the Western parts of Mediterranean sea in compare with its East and therefore the wet spells (Monthly) occur in the study area, and If the above mentioned index is negative, means that the occurrence of drought in West Iran. As for the indicators introduced for lower levels of the atmosphere, especially in the case of temperature, meaningful strong and direct correlation is seen with rainfall abnormalities in entire West of Iran. Modeling provided some indicator for Mediterranean region using multivariate regression that they showed a relatively strong correlation in this regard of the selected components that include the pressure difference in sea level, the temperature difference in 925 and 850 hPa level in the West (Compared to its East) Mediterranean sea. Also check the regression model using real data confirm the accuracy of the relative performance of the model.
Meysam Toulabi Nejad, Dr Zahra Hejazizadeh, Mrs Atefeh Bosak, Mrs Nasrin Bazmi,
Volume 18, Issue 49 (3-2018)
Abstract
The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the middle levels of Atmosphere and precipitation changes in the West of country. To do this, first monthly rainfall data of 17 synoptic stations of the West Country in period of 30 years from 1984 to 2014 of country were collected from Meteorological Organization. As well as North Atlantic Oscillation data and anomalies geopotential height data, sea level pressure and precipitation were received from NOAA. To clarify the relationship between the NAO index phase with precipitation of west of Iran used Pearson correlation coefficient was at least 95%, (P_value = 0.05). Finally, using synoptic maps, spatial relationships among data, were analyzed. The results indicate that between North Atlantic Oscillation changes with middle level height anomalies of the Atmosphere and the amount of precipitation in West of Iran in January, March, April and November there is communication and concurrency. The results showed that , at a time of sovereignty positive phase of the North Atlantic oscillation , an average of height atmospheric middle level in mid - western Iran 17 meters long - term and less than the average rainfall per month 23.5 mm increased and wetly sovereign. But when phase of governance is negative, high atmospheric middle level anomaly to an average of 20 meters more than normal. As a result, the drought will prevail in the west and precipitation in the region each month will face a reduction of 30 mm. In general, we can say that droughts more severe than wet coincide with the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation is positive phase.
