Extra-regional threats refer to a set of military, security, political, and economic measures or pressures exerted by countries or coalitions from outside a specific geographical region against the interests and security of a country. These threats typically exploit geographical distance, modern warfare tools, comprehensive sanctions, and the establishment of influence in neighboring countries to undermine stability and limit the regional power of the target. This research has been conducted with the aim of identifying and analyzing the key drivers affecting trans-regional threats to Iran using a future studies approach, in order to analyze the systemic structure of these threats and outline the most probable scenario ahead. The method of this research is mixed (quantitative-qualitative). For this purpose, initial indicators were extracted through multi-stage interviews with a panel of 15 experts and then screened using the Delphi method. In the next stage, a cross-impact analysis questionnaire was administered to 15 specialists and experts, and the data were structurally analyzed using MICMAC software. The distribution of variables on the influence-dependence map indicates the instability of Iran's trans-regional threats system. Among the 49 variables examined across five dimensions—political, economic, socio-cultural, defense-security, and natural-environmental—three variables were identified as the most key drivers and as dual-risk/target variables: new regional coalitions in Iran's periphery involving global powers (P3), pressure on countries party to agreements with Iran to terminate cooperation (P7), and new trans-regional political coalitions against Iran's political positions (P1). Furthermore, the variable "keeping the minds of the country's decision-makers occupied with domestic issues" (P8) ranked first in terms of direct influence. The results of the research indicate that the future of trans-regional threats to Iran can be depicted in the form of the "Intelligent Siege" scenario. In this scenario, trans-regional powers, through regional and trans-regional coalition-building and severing Iran's contractual ties with the world, drive the country toward strategic passivity and reduced room for maneuver without a full-scale military war. The paradigm shift of threats from a purely military nature to political, cognitive, and intelligent threats is the most important characteristic of the future of these threats.

Nowadays, tourism, as one of the key components, has a special role in developing societies and countries. Here, urban tourism - as a significant parts of the tourism industry - has a special place in improving the economic and cultural development of cities and has turned into one of the most important, exchange yielding, and income creating industries. Nevertheless, the development of this industry in cities faces some challenges and problems. This calls for a new and integrated planning to take advantage of opportunities and face the challenges ahead. Future studies can take very effective steps in planning for the development of urban tourism and mapping out the desired future of tourism, and by presenting proper solutions, it can stop the emergence of challenges and the realization of an undesirable future. This study was working towards in line with this purpose. In the present study, using Delphi technique, 36 factors were identified as the primary factors affecting the future of the development of urban tourism in Khoy. The structural analysis method was used with the help of MicMac software to extract key factors, where 12 factors were selected as key factors. Then, the probable situations were defined for each key factor. In the next step, to measure the effectiveness of the occurrence of the status of each of the factors on the occurrence or non-occurrence of other factors, a 33 × 33 matrix was designed and given to the experts. Finally, to compile probabilistic scenarios and to identify desirable scenarios, the data for this matrix were introduced into the scenario software. ScenarioWizard software reported 1406 poor scenarios, 4 strong scenarios and 13 credible scenarios by performing the needed analyses. Examining the credible scenarios showed a relative ruling of static, critical and undesirable situations over the desirable and ideal situations. Apart from the first scenario with desirable and progressive features, the rest of the scenarios do not show a desirable future in minds for the development of tourism in Khoy. 

The application of structural analysis to development drivers facilitates a more nuanced understanding of the developmental landscape of provinces and enhances regional equilibrium in decision-making processes. This study examines the ten cities within Ilam province through a comprehensive assessment of 44 combined development indicators. Methodologically, this research is classified as applied in nature and employs a descriptive-analytical approach, utilizing contemporary futurology techniques. Theoretical data were gathered through documentary methods, while empirical data were collected via surveys. Development drivers were identified through documentary analysis and environmental scanning, complemented by empirical data obtained through the Delphi method. Data processing employed the structural interaction analysis method using MIC MAC software. Findings from the interaction analysis reveal a dispersion of propulsive forces within a complex and intermediate context of impact and effectiveness; the clustering of drivers illustrates the concentration of both effective and regulatory forces. Among the 44 identified development drivers, the borders of Ilam province and managerial decision-making processes emerged as significant effective drivers. The results indicate that development in Ilam province is characterized by pronounced imbalances, with a trend towards increasing inequality. It is suggested that only through improved and more comprehensive planning can these disparities be partially mitigated.