Showing 3 results for Scenario Planning
Mr Javad Shahvali Kohshouri, Dr Ahmadreza Askari, Dr Rasool Nazari, Dr Amirreza Naghsh,
Volume 11, Issue 21 (7-2021)
Abstract
Promoting physical activities at schools not only encourage students to do sport along their lifetime but also lead to a better physical and mental health among them. Therefore, the aim of this study is first to predict the future of sport among Iranian students, then, to develop its scenarios for the next 15 years and finally to make a strategy. In this study, the scenario-based approach, which is based on an intuitive logic one, was applied and the method of trends and uncertainty analysis as well as a six-step integrated scenario planning were used. The participants of this study were 38 internal and external stakeholders of Iranian student sport selected by purposeful sampling. The data were collected by interviews and open-ended questionnaires. According to the findings, the analysis of the 30 key factors resulted in two key uncertainties: "regional planning and resource abundance" and "adaptive legislation on the principle of cultural difference" which form the basis of the four main student sport scenarios. As a result, to develop Iranian student sport, it is recommended to make a comprehensive planning based on local ecological issues for each region.
Marziyeh Azadegan, Ghasem Rahimi Sarshabadarani, Rasoul Nazari,
Volume 100, Issue 100 (10-2020)
Abstract
The purpose of this foresight of Iran's educational sports with a balanced scorecard approach was in the horizon of 2035. The current research was of mixed type (qualitative-quantitative) and its design was of sequential exploratory type. The participants of this research were educational sports experts. The sampling method was snowball and based on theoretical saturation, 12 people were selected. Interviews and questionnaires were used to collect data and Lincoln & Guba (1985) criteria were used for its audit, which included validity, transferability, reliability and verifiability. In order to analyze the data in the interview analysis section, the coding method was used, the fuzzy Delphi method was used to screen the indicators and the structural analysis and scenario writing method was used in the future research section. By analyzing the interviews, 150 effective factors on the future of Iran's educational sports were identified based on the balanced scorecard, and by combining the primary codes in the secondary coding stage, these factors were reduced to 105. Then, in the axial coding stage, 18 subcategories based on 6 aspects of the balanced scorecard were formed by aggregating the final concepts adapted from the interview text, and the results of the Delphi analysis showed that the calculated factors correctly explain the desired phenomenon. Finally, based on the findings, 4 key drivers of efficient management, increase in audience satisfaction, development of information capital, and socialization of educational sports were obtained, which are the basis of the two main scenarios of transformation and fruitless willfulness. As a result, it is suggested that in order to develop educational sports in Iran, synergy and efficient management, increase audience satisfaction, development of information resources, and socialization of educational sports should be implemented.
Majid Bahrami, Mina Mostahfezian, Mahnaz Marvi Esfahani,
Volume 100, Issue 100 (10-2020)
Abstract
The growth of Kabaddi sports, its development and progress, requires the ability to anticipate uncertainties. As a developing sport in Iran, kabaddi has seen a lot of progress, but at the same time, challenges may still affect its future, especially since there is limited understanding about its possible future and the ways in which There is a corresponding future to be traversed. Therefore, in this study, a multi-stakeholder scenario planning was used to develop future scenarios of Iran's Kabaddi sports, using stakeholders' points of view on the trends and critical uncertainties that may shape the future of Kabaddi sports to create action-oriented strategies. The participants of the present analytical and exploratory study included 28 domestic and foreign beneficiaries of Iran's Kabaddi sports, who were selected based on targeted sampling. Data was collected through interviews and open questionnaires. Data analysis was done with the six-step model of combined scenario planning of Lipzig and Rollandberger. The findings and analysis of 29 main factors obtained led to the production of two key uncertainties and four scenarios with titles of champion, super league, active lifestyle and always loser. In order to develop Kabaddi sports in Iran, there should be a transformation in the structure of the process with the aim of institutionalizing Kabaddi sports in geographical dimensions with a professional and universal approach.
