Journal of Spatial Analysis

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Environmental hazards are considered as one of the main obstacles for achieving sustainable human settlements development (particularly in rural areas). Today, with a new look at crisis management, using all managerial, organizational and planning accomplishments before the crisis, is an essential and rational concern. Rural settlements of the country along with cities always are threatened by a variety of environmental hazards, but what makes these spaces different from the cities is the high-intensity of vulnerability due to its physical decay texture. In this regard, one of the key elements in confronting the possible crisis that must be taken into account is the crisis management bases in which all prevention, preparedness and response measures, including disaster relief, temporary accommodation for the injured, etc. is provided and minimizes the consequences of potential crisis. Being located in the Kahrizak fault zone and the placement of hazardous industries in this region, is the main reason for selecting Kahrizak district as a study area in this research.    To achieve goals of constructing crisis management bases which indeed is the tactic ability of crisis management system (CMS), it is required to set the site selection criteria and standards for constructing them in such a way that provide more operational activities and develop the level of their impacts. In this regard, in the first step, the final criteria for site selection of crisis management base were selected after reviewing previous studies. Then, after surveying the experts and also the localization of criteria on the basis of area condition, seventeen final criteria were determined. For quantitative criteria, data were collected through organizations and reference centers and for a single qualitative criterion (cultural convergence), the questionnaire instrument used in gathering data. After collecting data using library and field methods, a combination of two models: fuzzy logic and hierarchical analysis process (AHP) applied for optimal location of crisis management base.    To determine the impact level of each criterion in the site selection process in two above-mentioned models, the standards for each of the seventeen criteria was determined with the help of combination method. The standards of some of the criteria determined using the standards in related organizations and some other standards proposed by experts and also through the localization by the researcher. Afterward, initially fuzzy standardized common scale maps produced from all information layers in a raster format. Then selected criteria by experts in the format of AHP model were compared with each other through pairwise comparison method. As a result of this comparison, the weight of criteria was determined which indicates the preference degree of each criterion over the others. At last, all standardized (fuzzified) layers multiplied in each of the final weight resulting from Analytical Hierarchy Model and in total converted into weighted fuzzy layers. In the next step, following the process of fuzzy model, fuzzy addition and multiplication operators were applied on output layers. Finally, to modify the layer resulting from fuzzy addition and multiplication, the Gamma operator was used. As such, after producing layers of different fuzzy gammas, essential assessment was conducted for selecting appropriate and ideal gamma. In order to do this, produced layers of each fuzzy gammas were compared with the study area for optimal location and the establishment of crisis management base. Since the gamma 0.9 had the most conformity to suitable zone in the layers of study area, it was selected as the appropriate gamma. However, to ensure the selected location, field study was conducted.     According to the research findings, the following conclusions were obtained: Site selection criteria for rural crisis management base not only has an environmental essence (built and natural), but socio –economic criteria are important as well Effective criteria for site selection of rural crisis management base, affected by regional and local requirements are not the same. Localization of criteria is a necessity that should be considered in site selection. Standards based on site selection criteria depending on the type of services, goals and location at multiple spatial levels (regional, local, urban and rural) is different: in the other words one size does not fit all Site selection is not only based on the location within overlaying information layers by using the models, but the final choice is done after field evaluation and visit.

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Among the various environmental hazards, flood is the greatest and most important climate crisis which takes every year the lives of thousands people and impose severe damages on human society and environment. Today, it is clear that controlling all hazards, including floods is not possible. Suitable management can only minimize the damages. The literature on natural disasters management indicated that in the process of natural disaster management and their vulnerability mitigation, there are two dominant paradigm: technic-based approach and community-based approach.

Community-based approach welcome the local cooperation and participation in disaster management process and calls for strengthening local capacity through the participation of all individuals and groups at the local level. This approach is not only appropriate to provide solutions for disaster reduction, but build disaster preparedness. Because disaster preparedness planning requires special attention to local participation. In the geographic area of Bashar River Basin, due to the lack of suitable agricultural land and greater quantity of water for rice crop, villages have been built at rivers edge. So that, most of the houses and farms in the villages are located very close to the river. However, these locations are extremely vulnerable to flooding. This study reviews the status of local participation and its impact on reducing flood risks. Also, this research focuses on factors influencing local community trends and choices in the participation rate.

This study is applied research in terms of purpose and uses descriptive-analytical method. According to the nature of the study, data were collected through fieldwork and library research methods using observation, interview, questionnaire and evaluation card techniques. To understand different characteristics of community, Likert scale and one-sample t-test were used and measurement scale for data was ordinal. Also. The method of selective experimental approach based on profit was taken to evaluate the level of different trends in Community's financial participation for reducing detrimental effects of flood. To recognize the community awareness and perception toward flood risk and the probability of its occurrence in the future, the willingness level to participation and to explore the effective factors on villager’s decisions and to utilize modern management techniques the selective experimental approach based on evaluation card and logit model were employed.

The results of statistical analysis showed that in the study area, 86.5% of the community have experienced the damages caused by flooding and forecasted the likelihood of heightened chance of flooding in the future. Finding showed that although the people use traditional methods for managing flood, but they tend to employ modern methods such as dam building for reducing flood risk. This help them to increase the safety factor for their locations and farm lands. In spite of the fact that the villagers expressed the higher safety factor for new management methods such as (dam building, river broadening and preventing the destruction of forest and environment), but it seems that improper functioning, adverse consequences (environmental and socio-economic) of projects implementation (dam building) as well as the inability of villager's financial participation (high cost of this kind of methods), are barriers to using them for lowering the flood risks and damages.

The review of the possible role of some intervening variables to predict local communities' participation in decision-making processes showed that low-income, old age of the samples with high average (47.61) and education with lower average (3.16) are the most important factors influencing community decision making. The results of binominal logit model showed that the proposed variables is significant at the 5% level. If the offer price increase, the chance of residents' acceptance of participation will decrease and vice versa.

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The latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) on climate and global warming Indicates that climate change and global warming in particular is one of the most important challenges of the world and drought, as a consequence of climate change around the world, has always influenced the many countries, including Iran. However, it seems that the climate changes, particularly in the West and Iran, especially among farmers and rural communities vulnerable to the effects of economic, social and environmental impacts that are more significant. In other words, Continuous droughts are faced villagers and farmers with various problems and challenges, In this regard, villagers Choose the local and specific strategies in the face of this creeping disaster that improve them adaptive capacity to drought. Nowadays, special emphasis is put on the notion of adaptive capacity instead of vulnerability. So the need to have research in rural levels obvious, especially in Iran where there has not yet been any deep and encompassing study on the concept of adaptive capacity in rural level. adaptive capacity to climate change is the ability of a system or an individual to adjust to climate change or climate variability so as to minimize the potential damages or cope with the consequences. Therefore, adaptive capacity is the ability to plan and use adaptation measures to moderate the effect of climate change. There is an increasing need to develop indicators of adaptive capacity to determine the robustness of response strategies over time and to understand better the underlying processes.

Adaptive capacities of villagers depend on certain factors or attributes such as their knowledge on and number of times they use a particular adaptation strategy. Other factors are the availability and accessibility of the adaptation strategy. Also, the number of consultations that a villagers makes on a particular adaptation strategy affect whether the villagers will be lowly or moderately or highly adaptive to drought.

Identifying the overall level of adaptive capacity to drought in rural areas, in order to Effective management is special importance, Because that by identifying and ranking of adaptive capacity in rural areas, adopt appropriate management strategies to reduce the damage caused by drought is possible.

Therefore, the purpose of this study is assessing the adaptive capacity to drought of between four villages in the central part of the city Rawansar in Kermanshah province. For this purpose five most effective and important index to measure the  adaptive capacity to drought as follows:  Knowledge, Use, Availability , Accessibility and Consultation, according to the literature, were selected. Then by using one sample T-test, the effectiveness of each of the above-mentioned indicators on the villagers adaptive capacity were reviewed and approved from the point of view Village contributors of the central city Rawansar (N = 48) who were selected by census method. In the next step, to determine the index weight, using the snowball technique and purpose sampling, 10 experts in jahad  agricultural  office in Rawansar city were selected and their comments were used. The results by TOPSIS technique based on these indicators, showed that rural areas of Hasan Abad and Zalu Ab  in the Rawansar city, had the greatest adaptive capacity to drought, While  rural areas of Dawlat Abad and Badr had fewer adaptive capacity to drought. The Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) is a multi-criteria decision analysis method, which  is based on the concept that the chosen alternative should have the shortest geometric distance from the positive ideal solution (PIS)and the longest geometric distance from the negative ideal solution (NIS).It is a method of compensatory aggregation that compares a set of alternatives by identifying weights for each criterion, normalising scores for each criterion and calculating the geometric distance between each alternative and the ideal alternative, which is the best score in each criterion.The findings of this study could have recommendations for rural planners to effective crisis management in order to reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience villagers to drought.

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Land cover changes as a basic factor in environmental change act and has become a global threat. In this research, changes in land cover in rural tourism areas by neural networks, Markov chains in software ArcGIS, ENVI, Terrset using the TM and OLI satellite imagery, Landsat Satellite was surveyed for a period of 30 years for three periods of 1985, 2000, and 2015. The findings of the first stage show that land cover changes at the period 1985-2015, were classified in five class residential spaces, Commercial, Green, Empty and mountainous spaces and communication networks. In this study, the area of mountainous and empty spaces (13.25%) has decreased and in contrast, has decreased the amount of green spaces (6.221%), Residential (5.258%), commercial (1.264%) and communication networks (0.529%). Changing land cover as one of the most important environmental risks has been directly influenced by the Commodification phenomenon. Also, the findings of the prediction using the Markov-CA chain showed that with the continuation of the current and excessive loading on the ground, on the horizon of 2030, green cover (Agriculture, gardens and grassland, garden and residential)  and  wild land  and mountain cover have been reduced and to cover residential and commercial villas will be added. Based on research findings concluded that land cover changes in rural tourism areas in order to achieve more profits has become incompatible applications. This change in land cover, in addition to the economic, social impacts, has led to the formation of environmental hazards in the Bharang area. Developing tourism in the study area by removing agricultural land from the production cycle has led to an increase in urban activities and the formation of new activities (service, Residential Garden, residential villa) instead of traditional activities(agriculture and livestock) that are economical. And by loading too much ecological power tolerable land, while posing environmental hazards, causing incompatible activities next to each other, they do not match. Therefore, tourism, which gradually formed over the years and now it has become a part of rural texture, Spatial Conflict and heterogeneity two strains has created for them. Spatial Conflict created, due to changes in land cover and acceptance of incompatible activities that derive from human-nature relationships. This means that the rapid and unpredictable trend of tourism development, the rural landscape has encountered a problem and with changes in land cover, has led to inconsistencies between different activities and eventually has shaped the Spatial Conflict.
 

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1. What pattern does the spatial distribution of coronary heart disease in the rural area of Damavand city follow?
2. What factors have influenced this spatial distribution pattern?

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Factors affecting the adaptation of rural settlements to the water crisis of Lake Urmia Case study: Miandoab County

Problem statement
In recent years, Lake Urmia, the largest lake in Iran, has faced severe water shortages, which has raised concerns in terms of economic, social and environmental consequences in the surrounding communities, especially in rural areas. Livelihood dependence of rural community stakeholders, to the natural resources and agricultural products have caused the harmful effects of drying Urmia Lake to be more visible. The drying up of Lake Urmia is not limited to this lake, but human communities have also suffered a lot from their sphere of influence. Due to the human effects of the drying of Lake Urmia,  it is necessary to analyze the effects of this phenomenon from a human perspective in research. Identifying the adaptive capacity of rural community stakeholders makes it possible to adopt appropriate management strategies to reduce the damage caused by lake drying. Therefore, despite the importance of the subject of this research, it seeks to study the factors and forces affecting the adaptation capacity of rural settlements in the face of the drying crisis of Lake Urmia in the city of Miandoab and so on.

Research Methodology
In terms of methodology, strategy and design, the present study is a combination of (mixed), sequential and explanatory exploratory, respectively. In this study, for a detailed study of community mentalities, a discourse on effective factors to increase the adaptive capacity of rural settlements in the face of drying or water retreat of Lake Urmia, the combined method of (Q) was selected. The research discourse community included local managers (governorate experts, heads and employees of government departments, districts, rural districts and Islamic councils) as well as local experts in the sample villages of Miandoab city. Targeted sampling method (snowball) was used to select the statistical sample. Q statements were also compiled using first-hand sources (expert opinions, local managers, field observations, etc.) and codified sources (books, articles, publications, etc.) using the library and field methods. The Q questionnaire was also used to assess the attitude of experts. In order to analyze the data of the Q (Q) method matrices, heuristic factor analysis based on the individual method (Stanfson method) was used.

Description and interpretation of results
 In reviewing the findings of the exploratory factor analysis model with KMO criterion, Bartlett test confirmed the sufficient number of samples and its appropriateness for the research. To investigate the most important influencing factors, the specific value and percentage of variance were calculated and the number of factors was determined by pebble diagram and Kaiser Guttman criterion. The results showed that the most important factors and forces affecting the increase of adaptation capacity to the drying of Lake Urmia in the sample villages of Miandoab are: 1) Increasing economic capital and the use of natural resources, 2) Increasing social capital and investment, 3) Developing infrastructure facilities and improving the skills of villagers, 4) Economic diversification and improving rural management .. Among these factors, the first factor with a specific value of 5.40 and a percentage of variance of 24.55 was recognized as the most important factor and effective force in increasing the adaptation capacity of the studied villages against the drying of Lake Urmia. Thus, economic and natural factors, as the most important assets of the villagers, are endangered at any time by the drying up and retreat of the water of Lake Urmia and have a direct impact on the livelihood of the villagers.

Keywords: Adaptation capacity, Lake Harumiyeh, Miandoab County.

 

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