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Khadijeh Karimi, Vahid Riahi, Farhad Azizpour, Aliakbar Taghilo,
Volume 4, Issue 2 (7-2017)
Volume 4, Issue 2 (7-2017)
Abstract
Human settlements as local -spatial systems are subject to continuous dynamism and transformation. In the meantime, rural settlements including; in Iran, as the most important establishment of population and activity, are exposed to the deepest environmental, ecological, social, economic and cultural changes. It is evident that in these developments, a variety of different and different forms of internal and external interactions Are creative However, most of these factors are somehow influenced by the management system that plays a role in the rural areas. This system, having different patterns, has a different effect on spatial systems.
The issue of drought has recently been the major concern all over the country and particularly in Urmia Basin. This is considered as a key factor in Urmia Lake crisis. Urmia's rural settlements are also affected by the management factor in a variety of spatial dimensions. The crisis of the dramatic decrease in Urmia Lake water and its management (decisions making) has posed a serious challenge to rural areas. This article to pursue to base management as a foreign factor on the basis of a good governance approach to the analysis and analysis of the role It focuses on the transformation of rural settlements in Urmia.
This research is applied in terms of its purpose and based on descriptive-analytical method. The statistical population of the study was the experts in the institutions related to the county crisis management. Experts from sample target communities were 70 people who were identified by a sample size determination method with an unknown community. A sample sampling method was used to select the samples. Data and information was collected using library and information technology. The questionnaire was used to assess the role of the management system in the framework of the components of a good governance approach and Referring to related research backgrounds, they were identified. To measure the normal distribution of data and appropriate regression selection, Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Dorbin Watson's tests were used. Also, for measuring the direct and indirect effects and the correlation between the components, Pearson's path analysis and Pearson correlation tests were used in SPSS software.
The findings of the research shows that the villages affected by the disaster management system in facing the risk of drying the Lake Urmia have encountered inappropriate environmental, social, economic and physical changes. These changes are influenced by the military mechanism that It is not due to being state-owned, focused, and open-minded; they are not accountable, legitimate, and efficient. In the meantime, the weakness of the legitimacy of failure in effective performance has had a direct impact on the disaster management inefficiency. Of course, other components such as weakness of pivotal justice, weakness of accountability, weakness of orientation affect the components of the weakness of legitimacy and weakness of the role Effectiveness has doubled disaster management inefficiencies.
The assessment of the disaster management system of Lake Urmia, based on the governance framework, indicates that the management system has not been efficient. This ineffectiveness, however, is heavily influenced by the weakness of legitimacy. But, indirectly influenced by other factors, including weakness of orientation, weakness of justice, and weakness of accountability. The important thing in this regard is the impact of the indirect factors on the legitimacy factor. By considering the nature of their direct and indirect factors, it is clear that the weak role of the villagers and the means to participate in disaster management, the cause of all problems In the countryside. Restoring Lake Urmia without paying attention to the villagers living around the Lake Urmia will be difficult. Therefore, giving villagers the role of the main beneficiaries of Lake Urmia Basin can help restore Lake Urmia.infact,Communities are the first responders in case of a disaster. Therefore, community-based disaster risk management should be the core of any risk reduction approach. community based Disaster risk management focuses more on community participation and reducing underlying risk, encouraging preventive action before a disaster. and focuses on participation on design, decision and performance for better management of disasters.
The issue of drought has recently been the major concern all over the country and particularly in Urmia Basin. This is considered as a key factor in Urmia Lake crisis. Urmia's rural settlements are also affected by the management factor in a variety of spatial dimensions. The crisis of the dramatic decrease in Urmia Lake water and its management (decisions making) has posed a serious challenge to rural areas. This article to pursue to base management as a foreign factor on the basis of a good governance approach to the analysis and analysis of the role It focuses on the transformation of rural settlements in Urmia.
This research is applied in terms of its purpose and based on descriptive-analytical method. The statistical population of the study was the experts in the institutions related to the county crisis management. Experts from sample target communities were 70 people who were identified by a sample size determination method with an unknown community. A sample sampling method was used to select the samples. Data and information was collected using library and information technology. The questionnaire was used to assess the role of the management system in the framework of the components of a good governance approach and Referring to related research backgrounds, they were identified. To measure the normal distribution of data and appropriate regression selection, Kolmogorov-Smirnov and Dorbin Watson's tests were used. Also, for measuring the direct and indirect effects and the correlation between the components, Pearson's path analysis and Pearson correlation tests were used in SPSS software.
The findings of the research shows that the villages affected by the disaster management system in facing the risk of drying the Lake Urmia have encountered inappropriate environmental, social, economic and physical changes. These changes are influenced by the military mechanism that It is not due to being state-owned, focused, and open-minded; they are not accountable, legitimate, and efficient. In the meantime, the weakness of the legitimacy of failure in effective performance has had a direct impact on the disaster management inefficiency. Of course, other components such as weakness of pivotal justice, weakness of accountability, weakness of orientation affect the components of the weakness of legitimacy and weakness of the role Effectiveness has doubled disaster management inefficiencies.
The assessment of the disaster management system of Lake Urmia, based on the governance framework, indicates that the management system has not been efficient. This ineffectiveness, however, is heavily influenced by the weakness of legitimacy. But, indirectly influenced by other factors, including weakness of orientation, weakness of justice, and weakness of accountability. The important thing in this regard is the impact of the indirect factors on the legitimacy factor. By considering the nature of their direct and indirect factors, it is clear that the weak role of the villagers and the means to participate in disaster management, the cause of all problems In the countryside. Restoring Lake Urmia without paying attention to the villagers living around the Lake Urmia will be difficult. Therefore, giving villagers the role of the main beneficiaries of Lake Urmia Basin can help restore Lake Urmia.infact,Communities are the first responders in case of a disaster. Therefore, community-based disaster risk management should be the core of any risk reduction approach. community based Disaster risk management focuses more on community participation and reducing underlying risk, encouraging preventive action before a disaster. and focuses on participation on design, decision and performance for better management of disasters.
Dr. Mostafa Karimi, ُsir Seyfollah Kaki, Dr. Somayeh Rafati,
Volume 5, Issue 3 (12-2018)
Volume 5, Issue 3 (12-2018)
Abstract
Global temperatures have increased in the past 100 years by an average of 0.74°C (IPCC, 2013), with minimum temperatures increasing faster than maximum temperatures and winter temperatures increasing faster than summer temperatures (IPCC, 2013). Total annual rainfall tends to increase at the higher latitudes and near the equator, while rainfall in the sub-tropics is likely to decline and become more variable (Asseng et al., 2016). Considering probability of occurrence climate change and its hazardous impacts, it seems essential to clarify future climate. General Circulation Models is widely used to assess future climate and its probable changes. Although the outputs of these models are not appropriate for small-scale regions because of its coarse resolution. Thus, statistical or dynamical techniques are used to downscaling the outputs of these models using observed data in weather stations. Despite the fact that frequent researches has done in relation with climate and climate change, but it is unclear yet future climate, especially climate change, in Iran. The goal of this study was to present the results of climate change predictions which has been done so far in Iran, in order to help prospective studies in this field. This step can be important to consider new questions and challenges. In this study, we assessed future climate change in Iran using results of statistical downscaling studies of atmospheric-oceanic General Circulation Model’s outputs. To do this, studies on prediction of precipitation and temperature parameters in Iran by different emission scenarios, atmospheric-oceanic General Circulation Model’s outputs and statistical downscaling techniques were gathered. Then a comprehensive view about Iran's future climate and specifically the climate changes presented by descriptive-content based analysis and comparison of their results. Used downscaling techniques in these researches were included: LARS-WG, SDSM, ASD, Clim-Gen and used General Circulation Models were: HADCM3, BCM2, IPCM4, MIHR, CGCM3, CCSM4 and finally used emission scenarios were A1B, A1, A2, B1, B2, RCP4.5. Based on climatically geographical differences in Iran, the results discussed separately in six different regions across Iran. The results of various regions are different because of usage of different models and different climatological and geographical conditions. These models simulate temperature more accurate than precipitation, because of more variability and temporal discontinuity of the precipitation relative to temperature. Assessment of results in 30-year periods from 2011 to 2099 showed that in North West of Iran (Ardebil, Azarbayejan- Sharqi and Azarbayejan- Qarbi provinces), precipitation will be decreasing, decreasing- oscillating, decreasing- transitional and temperature will be increasing. Decreasing- transitional trend, in other words decrease precipitation in cold seasons and increase of it in warm seasons, lead to a decrease in the snow occurrence and an increase in the rainfall occurrence. Thus, it can affect the frequency of floods occurrence. In west and southwest region of Iran precipitation has been predicted to have different changes in various sections of it. It will be decreasing-oscillating in Kermanshah and Kordestan provinces and oscillating in Hamedan province. Precipitation will increase in Lorestan and finally it expected to decrease in Khoozestan, Chaharmahal-va-Bakhtiari, and Ilam. However Temperature will rise across this region. In south and south east region of Iran (Fars, Hormozgan, Kerman and sistan-va-Baloochestan provinces), precipitation will be decreasing, decreasing-oscillating, oscillating and increasing-oscillating. Also in this region, temperature expected to increase similar to other regions. In east and north east of Iran (Khorasan Shomali, Khorasan Razavi and Khorasan Jonobi provinces), temperature predicted to be increasing-oscillating, that it is different with other regions. Changes in precipitation will be oscillating and decreasing-oscillating. In the northern coasts of Iran (Gilan, Mazandaran and Golestan provinces), precipitation changes will be decreasing and increasing-oscillating and temperature changes expected to be increasing and increasing-oscillating. Thus, it expected to increase heat wave, drought, and aridness condition as the results of these changes. Precipitation changes in south of Alborz region and center of Iran (Semnan, Tehran, Qazvin, Markazi, Esfahan and Yazd provinces), will be decreasing, oscillating, increasing-oscillating. Also temperature will be increasing in this region. Considering the decreasing trend of precipitation and the increasing trend of temperature in the most of Iran, it is probable to increase the occurrence of climatic and environmental hazards such as flood, drought and heat waves in the future. These events can have serious effects on water resources, agriculture and tourism, especially in regions such as Iran where have sensitive environment.
Miss Soraya Yaghobi, Mr Kamran Karimi, Dr Marzaban Faramarzi,
Volume 7, Issue 2 (8-2020)
Volume 7, Issue 2 (8-2020)
Abstract
The study and Comparison of desertification process on the basis of climate Criterion (Case Study: Abbas and Dehloran Plains, Ilam)
Soraya Yaghoobi, Kamran Karimi, Marzban Faramarzi
Abstract:
Nowdays desertification is a disaster in many countries , especially in developing countries. This problem includes natural factors and improper human activities. According to the expansion of desertification, providing the appropriate management methods will be reduced desertification intensity and its expansions. In this way, knowledge of processes of desertification and factors causing and the intensifier it and also awareness of intensity and Weakness the processes and factors that are important and necessary that should review and evaluate. Recognition criteria and indicators for provide a model to show the process of desertification and for determine one of the best reason effective factors for prevent the spread of desertification factors is necessary. To knowledge and Trend of desertification and separation of vulnerable areas versus degradation factors .we should indentifi and evaluat criteria and indicators affecte at desertification. Therefore in this study of the Iranian model IMDPA to assess trends and Comparison of desertification in recent years has used.
The studied area of Dehloran plain is located in southeast of Ilam province (47◦ 02′ 16″ to 47◦ 25′ 07″ E and 32◦ 48′ 33″ to 32◦ 18′ 48″N) with an area of 54252 hectares, With precipitation average 251.6 mm and Abbas plain is located in south of Ilam province(47◦ 37′ 55″ to 47◦ 50′ 57″ E and 32◦ 17′ 77″ to 32◦ 29′ 25″N) with an area of 34104 hectares With precipitation average 227.1mm. In this study, in dehloran plain of six stations in this Inside and outside the area also in Abbas plain of five stations outside the area used to measure the amount of rainfall in different seasons of year. In this study, to assessment and Comparison of desertification in two study area of the Iranian model IMDPA used. In this study, of climate criteria, were used. which according to the IMDPA model for this criteria, indexes are considered for evaluation e.t.c: Climate criteria: (1) the amount of annual rainfall 2-drought indexe(SPI) 3. continuing drought In IMDPA model All measurements do in this work units. To this end, first, working unit maps (geomorphologic facies) were created using slope, geology, and land use maps. a map was generated for each index according to assigned weights, such that the qualitative map of the desired criteria were obtained using the geometric mean of indicators.
The results earn of evaluation of desertification showed that in the period 2005-2009 weight average of climate criteria is same with 1.50 all of the region are in the classe Middle sub class 1 and class low sub class3 . in the period 2010-2014 Also weight average of climate criteria is same with 1.88 in classe Middle sub classes 2 and 3. Also weight average of climate criteria in Abbas plain In the first period is same with 1.92 in the classe Middle sub classe2. Also In the second period with weight average is same 2.3 in classe Middle sub classes 2 and 3. The results showed that SPI index, as the most effective indexes, in plain Abbas In the first and second periods with the weighted average 3.04and 3.2 in the intense class under class 2 and 3. in front in Dehloran plain SPI index in the first and second periods with weighted average of 1.93 and 2.25 in the moderate classe and sub-classes 1, 2 and 3 and intense sub-classe 1.
In this study, to assess and Comparison of desertification Dehloran and Abbas Plains to provide regional model has done. . In this way of a criteria, also important and effective indexes belonging to this criteria of desertification used in dehloran and Abbas plains . The obtained results of the analysis criteria and Indexes indicated that in dehloran and Abbas plains in the first period ( 2005-2009) And second period (2010-2014) between indexes the amount of annual rainfall, standard precipitation index (SPI) and drought duration Evaluated on the areas respectively standard precipitation index (SPI), rainfall and drought duration index the most important factors in exacerbating desertification. Can be concluded that the intensity of desertification in Abbas plain compared to dehloran plain terms of climate is In more adverse conditions. In general, it can be concluded that desertification would intensify in future decades.
Keywords: Desertification, IMDPA, Climate, Abbas Plain, DehloranPlain
Dr. Mostafa Karimi, Ms Sousan Heidari, Dr. Somayeh Rafati,
Volume 8, Issue 2 (9-2021)
Volume 8, Issue 2 (9-2021)
Abstract
The role of environmental and climatic environment on the transport and emission of carbon monoxide pollutants Iran in 2018
Introduction
Air pollution, as one of the most important environmental hazards in urban areas, is closely related to weather conditions. Today, pollution in metropolitan areas has become an important issue that requires the study and presentation of practical solutions to improve living conditions in this area. Therefore, understanding the relationship between synoptic systems and air pollutants helps a lot in how to solve environmental problems and future planning. Therefore, in this study, compression algorithms of carbon monoxide emission and transfer from domestic and foreign sources were analyzed. For this purpose, GEOS-5 / GMAO / NASA satellite images were used. The results showed that the highest amount of pollution from the seasonal point of view is related to the cold and early morning seasons and the lowest is related to the early afternoon and hot season of the year. And Khuzestan are densely populated carbon monoxide cores. Low pressures of the eastern Mediterranean play an important role in reducing pollutants in the southwest of the country and in the south of the country, under the influence of atmospheric currents from the topographic cut of Bandar Abbas, air streams polluted with carbon monoxide are able to penetrate into the interior to the southern half of Kerman. Increased by low pressure systems in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Zagros Mountains also play an important role in preventing the entry of pollutants produced by western neighbors into Iran. In summer, Iran is polluted by carbon monoxide carriers by monsoon currents from central and southern Africa to Iran and has caused a lot of pollution.
materials and Method
The geographical location we study in this study is Iran. Iran is the 16th largest country in the world. Iran is located in the northern hemisphere, the eastern hemisphere in Asia and in the western part of the Iranian plateau and is one of the Middle Eastern countries. Meridian 5 44 passes east of the westernmost point of Iran and meridian 18 63 passes east of the easternmost point of Iran. 1648195 sq km is bordered by Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkmenistan to the north, Afghanistan and Pakistan to the east, Turkey and Iraq to the west, the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman to the south. Iran is one-fifth the size of the United States and almost three times France. . Iran is a mountainous country. More than half of the country is covered by mountains and heights, and less than 1/4 of it is arable land. In general, Iran's heights can be divided into four mountain ranges: North, West, South and Central Mountains. East divided, which is therefore the twenty-third highest mountain in the world.
This study is based on the method of environmental analysis to focus on circulation, so that based on the concentration of carbon monoxide in 2018, synoptic patterns of this phenomenon have been identified. Satellite imagery of surface carbon monoxide was then obtained from three GEOS-5 / GMAO / NASA organizations. Also for synoptic analysis, MSLP and WS satellite images were received and analyzed from GFS / NCEP / US National Weather Service organizations and also one of the sensors used for pollutant studies is MOPITT. The MOPITT sensor is a tool for measuring troposphere pollution that can detect atmospheric pollution. This sensor is the first satellite sensor designed for use in gas correlation spectroscopy and is part of NASA's Operational Program (ESE), which has been operating since 1999 and is installed on three satellites Terra, Aura, Aqua Depending on the type of mission in space, it acts as an orbiter. This sensor measures only two variables of methane and carbon monoxide in the atmosphere of the troposphere of the atmosphere, for which purpose 3 bands and 8 channels for measuring monoxide with a size of 62.4 microns (using 4 channels), 33.2 It uses microns (using 2 channels) and methane measuring 26.2 microns (using 2 channels). The MOPITT sensor is specifically designed to measure carbon monoxide. The geographical boundaries of the study area were also selected to include all atmospheric systems affecting the study area.
Conclusion
The meteorological condition and the physical and dynamic properties of the atmosphere can play an important role in the level of air protection. The main factor that can cause the scattering and transmission of air forces is the use of the ground and the levels of reception of the atmosphere, and the synoptic systems as a service provider providing services for upward movement and distribution of air pollutants, as well as the definition of chalk. As a decision made in this field, Iran can use its images in this field in 2018 2018, MSLP, WS will provide you with GFS / NCEP / US National Weather Service. With great intensity you can go to Tehran and southwest to destroy yourself and access your officials. In the imagination carbon monoxide is possible and used in the southwest of the country. Now in your country and change the status of lists proposed by Coriolis, increase the high pressure of carbon monoxide in Mr. Tropical from the Middle East and Iran. This program allows you to modify your suggested lists. Carbon monoxide pollutants sent to a drawer in the international province of the country and available in Bandar Abbas, a road nest free from high mountains and as a corridor company you can get from this par of the air pollution as carbon monoxide through the air to this one Use the land up to the Kerman province.
Keywords: Carbon monoxide, Compression systems, Monson, Atmospheric pollution, Topography
Geographical-Synoptic Characteristics of Arabian Anticyclone in the Heavy Precipitation Days on Iran
Dr. Mostafa Karimi, Norouzi Fahimeh, Dr. Mahnaz Jafari, Dr. Khoshakhlagh Faramarz, Dr. Shamsipour Aliakbar,
Volume 9, Issue 1 (5-2022)
Volume 9, Issue 1 (5-2022)
Abstract
Vulnerability assessment of Miangaran wetland ecosystem
To support the proper management of ecosystems, vulnerability analysis of ecosystems is very important. Vulnerability analysis of ecosystems provides information about weaknesses and capacity of the studied ecosystem for recovery after damage. Considering the degradation status of Miangaran wetland, vulnerability evaluation of this wetland is one of the most important management methods in the region. For this purpose, in this study, after identifying and evaluating the threatening factors of Miangaran wetland, these factors were scored using evaluation matrices. Then, the interaction between these values and threatening factors was examined and the vulnerability of wetland values was obtained by multiplying the scores of all studied factors. Finally, management solutions were presented to deal with the most important threatening factors. According to the results, the most vulnerability is to the hydrological and ecological values of the wetland. The highest effects of threats on the ecological value are also on the birds of Miangaran wetland. The results of the evaluation of Miangaran Wetland show that this wetland has a high potential for ecosystem functions of the wetland. These functions have been neglected in the planning and managing of wetlands at the local, regional and national levels. As a result, ecosystem-based management is suggested as the best management approach. The management in these areas should take action to prevent the vulnerability of Miangaran wetland. Also, the vulnerability evaluation method used in this study can provide a good understanding of the relationship between wetland functions and the resulting services for the management of the ecosystem of Miangaran Wetland.
Key words: Miangaran wetland, ecosystem management, vulnerability assessment
Ms. Sousan Heidari, Dr. Mostafa Karimi, Dr. Ghasem Azizi, Dr. Aliakbar Shamsipour,
Volume 9, Issue 4 (3-2023)
Volume 9, Issue 4 (3-2023)
Abstract
Explaining the spatial patterns of drought intensities in Iran
Abstract
Recognition of spatial patterns of drought plays an important role in monitoring, predicting, confronting, reducing vulnerability, and increasing adaptation to this hazard. This study aims to identify the spatial distribution and analyze the spatial patterns of annual, seasonal, and monthly drought intensities in Iran. For this purpose, the European center Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) data for the period 1979-2021 and the ZSI index were used to extract the drought intensities. To achieve the research goal and explain the spatial pattern of the frequency of drought intensities (Extreme, severe, moderate, and weak), spatial statistical methods such as global Moran’s I, Anselin local Moran’s Index, and hot spots were used. The results of the global Moran’s I showed that with increasing intensity, the spatial distribution of drought events has become clustered. The spatial distribution of the local Moran’s Index and hot spots also confirms this. Very clear contrast was observed in the local clusters of high (low) occurrence as well as hot (cold) spots of severe (Extreme) yearly droughts in the south, southeast, and east. In autumn, weak to Extreme droughts show a southeast-northwest pattern. But in spring and winter, the spatial pattern of drought is very strong as opposed to severe and moderate drought. Despite the relatively high variability of maximum positive spatial Autocorrelation of severe and Extreme monthly droughts, their spatial pattern is almost similar. The spatial clusters of severe and very severe droughts in the northwest, northeast, and especially on the Caspian coast, are a serious warning for the management of water resources, especially for precipitation-based activities, such as agriculture.
Introduction
Drought or lack of precipitation over some time is the most widespread natural hazard on the earth compared to its long-term average. This risk negatively affects various sectors such as hydropower generation, health, industry, tourism, agriculture, livestock, environment, and economy. To reduce these negative or destructive effects, it must be determined how often drought occurs during the period and in which areas it is most severe. Doing so requires determining the characteristics of the drought. These characteristics include area, intensity, duration, and frequency of drought. Discovering the geographical focus, recognizing the pattern governing the frequency of occurrence and temporal-spatial distribution as well as changes in the dynamics of this hazard facilitate an important role in drought monitoring, early warning, forecasting, and dealing with these potential hazards; this information can be used to create a drought plan by providing analysts and decision-makers with ideas about drought, helping to reduce the negative and vulnerable effects and ultimately make it easier to protect or replace for greater adaptation. Many researchers have been led by these approaches to the use of statistical analysis. Numerous studies have been conducted in the study of climatic phenomena such as drought with space statistics techniques in various regions, including China, India, South Korea, and even Iran. Part of the domestic research on spatial patterns of drought is without the use of spatial statistics and a limited number of others who have used these analyzes have only studied the overall intensity of drought and have not studied the spatial patterns of different drought intensities. The main purpose of this study is to identify the distribution and spatial patterns of drought intensities in Iran using spatial analysis functions of spatial statistics based on the frequency of drought intensities (Extreme, severe, moderate, and weak) with yearly, seasonal and monthly multi-scale approach. Therefore, this study will answer the questions: a) What is the spatial distribution of drought intensity data in Iran? And b) What is the variability of spatial patterns of Iranian droughts at different time scales?
Material &Method
ERA5 monthly precipitation data for a period of 43 years from 1979 to 2021 were used for this study. an array of dimensions of 78×59×504 of data were formed in MATLAB software in which 78×59 is the number of nodes with a spatial resolution of 0.25 degrees and 504 represents the month. After creating the database, the ZSI index was used to calculate the severity of drought in annual, seasonal, and monthly comparisons. Finally, to achieve the research goal and explain the spatial pattern governing the frequency of drought intensities (Extreme, severe, moderate, and weak), spatial statistical methods such as global Moran’s I, Anselin local Moran I and hot spots was used.
Discussion of Results
Due to its ecological conditions, geographical location, and location in an arid and semi-arid region of the world, Iran is among the most vulnerable countries due to natural hazards, including drought. It has experienced many severe droughts in the last century. The occurrence of drought and its effects is one of the major challenges of water resources management in this century. The results of the Global Moran’s Index for all three annual, seasonal, and monthly scales showed a highly clustered pattern of drought events in the country. Spatial clustering of the occurrence of severe and Extreme yearly droughts in the eastern, southeastern, and southern regions is also an interesting result. These conditions are due to low precipitation and high spatial variation coefficient in these areas. This contrast of spatial clusters of drought intensities indicates the relationship between drought and temporal-spatial anomalies of precipitation so that with increasing precipitation, spatial variability of precipitation decreases, and consequently spatial homogeneity of precipitation increases. severe and moderate-intensity spots in the south-southeast in autumn and spring can be affected by fluctuations in the beginning and end of the monsoon season in South Asia due to the high variability of atmospheric circulation at the beginning and end of precipitation in these areas. Some studies have also shown the relationship between precipitation in these areas and the monsoon behavior of South Asia. Extreme drought events in winter and spring have had a positive spatial correlation pattern in the southwest, west, and northwest. However, precipitation at this time of year is concentrated in these areas. Warm clusters or concentrations of very severe drought events in the northern strip of the country, especially in the Caspian region, can be due to the high variability of precipitation at the beginning of the annual precipitation season (late summer and early autumn). Observations of these conditions in the northern strip indicate that an event with a high frequency of severe droughts, even in rainy areas, should not be unexpected. Spatial clusters of Extreme, severe, moderate, and weak drought every month using both local Moran and hot spots statistics show the fact that in Iran, the most severe droughts have occurred in the western, northwestern, and coastal areas of the Caspian Sea. However, the absence of severe droughts or spatial clusters has been the occurrence of low drought in the southeast and to some extent in the south. On a yearly scale, the south, southeast, and east have played a significant role in the spatial cluster of severe and extreme droughts. So that these areas of the country have had positive spatial solidarity. However, in these areas, negative spatial correlation prevailed in the autumn for severe drought. This may indicate an anomaly and a tendency to concentrate more precipitation in Iran, as well as many changes in seasonal and local precipitation regimes. According to the research results, a high incidence of severe and extreme drought on all three scales (monthly, seasonal and annual) even in the wettest climate of the country (northern Iran, especially the southern shores of the Caspian Sea) shows that High-intensity droughts can occur in all parts of the country, regardless of the weather conditions.
Keywords: Natural hazards, spatial patterns, Moran statistics, spatial autocorrelation, hot spots
Dr. Aliakbar Shamsipour, Dr. Hadis Sadeghi, Prof. Hosein Mohammadi, Dr. Mostafa Karimi,
Volume 9, Issue 4 (3-2023)
Volume 9, Issue 4 (3-2023)
Abstract
Climate is one of the determining factors in the quantity and quality of agricultural products, therefore, in this study, the relationship between precipitation and temperature (as explanatory variables) with rice yield in 40 cities and wheat yield in 30 cities (as dependent variables) was investigated in the Caspian coastal area during 2000-2017. Spatial statistical analyses were performed with using the Moran autocorrelation test and geographically weighted regression. Based on the results (Moran index, z = 0.4342121 for rice and z = 0.719571 for wheat, respectively), it was revealed that the spatial distribution pattern of rice and wheat yield had a cluster pattern. The results of the geographic weighted regression analysis showed that the temperature increase was more desirable than the precipitation increase so the increasing temperature could lead to yield increases. In the eastern parts of the study area, the positive effect of precipitation on rice yield (with 0.020 to 0.540 regression coefficients) was remarkable; the results also revealed a negative relationship between temperature and rice yield in the southeast and eastern parts and a positive effect on rice yield in other areas. Also, the effect of precipitation on wheat yield was negative in the west and central parts of the study area (with -0.481 to -0.871 regression coefficients). According to the results, a negative relationship was dominant between temperature and wheat yield in the east and southeastern parts of the study area and a positive relationship was detected in other areas. Finally, the results indicated that in the western and central parts, due to heavy rainfall and a low number of sunny hours, an increase in temperature is more favourable than an increase in rainfall. In the eastern and southeastern regions of the region, where the amount of precipitation is lower than the threshold required for rice and wheat, an increase in precipitation is more desirable.
Mr. Ali Abdinezhad, Mr. Mojtaba Yamani, Mr. Jafar Hassanpour, Mr. Abolghasem Goorabi, Mr. Mostafa Karimi Ahmadabad,
Volume 10, Issue 2 (9-2023)
Volume 10, Issue 2 (9-2023)
Abstract
Analysis of occurrence potential of the earth/debris flow and
shallow landslides using the TRIGRS model
(Case study: Babolrood Basin, Mazandaran)
In this study, the occurrence potential of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the Babolrood basin has been investigated. In this basin, due to the mountainous topography and the presence of loose organic soils, the potential of such landslides is high, and landslides of different sizes occur every year after long and intense rainfalls. These landslides, which start with the sliding mechanism in the upper parts of the soil cover, immediately turn into earth/debris flows, and from their joining together, large flows may form downstream of the basin, which is considered a destructive phenomenon. In this research, to investigate the effect of rainfall on the occurrence of shallow landslides and flows, the TRIGRS program, which is a comprehensive and grid-based program for slope stability analysis using the infinite slope method, has been used. In this program, the effect of rainwater penetration into the soil and runoff caused by rainfall, which are important parameters in the occurrence of shallow landslides and subsequent flows, are also fully considered and this natural phenomenon is fully simulated. The input data required for this research includes topographical data of the basin, geological and hydrogeological properties of soil units, and rainfall data in the region, which are prepared in the form of appropriate text files and GIS maps. The output of the Triggers program includes maps of the spatial distribution of the minimum safety factor, the depth of the failure, and the pore water pressure at the failure depth, which are prepared in the form of text files and can be interpreted in GIS-based software. The results of this study showed that in the high and steep parts of the basin, wherever there are soils on a bedrock rich in clay minerals (such as mudstone, marl, and shale), the potential for shallow rainfall-induced landslides is high. In the field studies, a good agreement between the results of this study and the experiences obtained from field observations of landslides caused by rainfall in the region was obtained in terms of their spatial distribution and time of occurrence.
Keywords: Shallow landslide; Pore pressure; Rainfall-induced landslide
Dr Ali Zangiabadi, Mr Fazllollah Karimi Ghotbabadi,
Volume 10, Issue 4 (12-2023)
Volume 10, Issue 4 (12-2023)
Abstract
Economic resilience to natural disasters, which is actually how economic capacities affect disasters, is one of the issues that must be considered in any society. It is noteworthy that the type of attitude towards economic resilience and how to analyze it on the one hand, plays a key role in how to recognize the current situation resilience and its causes, and on the other hand also affects policies and measures to reduce risk and how to deal with it. The purpose of this study is to rank the economic resilience of new urban Habitations in the Isfahan Metropolitan against earthquake risk. Due to the studied components and the nature of the subject, the approach of this research is "descriptive-analytical". The statistical population of this study includes 6 new urban Habitations of Shahin shahr, Majlesi, Sepahan shahr, Fooladshahr, Baharestan and Shahid Keshvari. This research is applied in terms of purpose and in the research literature section, information has been collected through the library method. According to the results obtained from ASI in this study, the new urban Habitations of Baharestan, Majlesi, Fooladshahr, Shahid Keshvari, Sepahan Shahr and Shahin Shahr have the first to sixth ranks in terms of economic resilience to earthquake risk, respectively. In order to reduce the adverse effects of earthquake risk, pay attention to the economic capacity of the studied Habitations and reduce the economic risk factors in each community, economic resilience should be considered to avoid financial losses caused by these possible accidents.
Gholam Hassan Jafari, Zeinab Karimi,
Volume 10, Issue 4 (12-2023)
Volume 10, Issue 4 (12-2023)
Abstract
Abstract
In geosciences, morphotectonic indicators are used to investigate the effectiveness of land surfaces from neotectonic activities. In this article, the results of morphotectonic indices by tectonic zones of Iran, according to the energy released from the earthquake of 1900-2009 and the position of the basins relative to the types of faults (young seismic faults), Quaternary and pre-Quaternary) were analyzed. For this purpose, 110 years old Iran seismic data was extracted from the geodatabase, and during the programming process in MATLAB, it was converted from point-vector to surface-raster. In addition the results of the evaluation of morphotectonic indices of 142 basins of different zones were used; 8 inactive basins, 40 semi- active basins, and 94 active basins. Inactive basins are located in Alborz, Zagros, and Central Iran. . The results indicate that the amount of energy released can't examine a significant role in evaluating the morphotectonic indices of the basins. Basin’s location in the area of Quaternary faults and young seismic is of great value in the tectonically active basin. The lie of semi-active basins adjacent to active basins, or the lie of inactive basins adjacent to semi-active and active basins; and it should be borne in mind that the thresholds used to estimate the tectonic activity status of basins cannot be used as a definite and mathematical criterion in estimating the tectonic status of basins.
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