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Hossein Varjavand Naseri, Asghar Tahmasbi, Hasan Darabi, Ahmadreza Yavari, Mohammadjavad Amiri, Gholamreza Nabi Bid Hendi,
Volume 7, Issue 4 (2-2021)
Volume 7, Issue 4 (2-2021)
Abstract
Extended Abstract:
The increasing challenge of water in many regions of the country is rooted in inappropriate governance of water resources at the basin levels. Investigating the interactions of different stakeholders and institutional arrangement affecting it is one of the key elements of governance system. The most important obstacle to achieving the optimal governance model of water resources in developing countries is the unknown path from governmental management, to good governance. The analysis of stakeholders and influential entities on their interactions is considered as one of the important pillars of governance assessment frameworks.
Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to evaluate the water resources of Zayandeh roud basin from the perspective of interactions between actors and formal institutions affecting their interactions. In this regard, it is attempted to answer two main questions: firstly, what is the organizational structure in management of Zayandeh roud?, Second, how far are the organizations’ policies and programs involved in the management of the watershed ?
In this study, Isfahan, Chaharmahal - bakhtiari , Khuzestan and Yazd which are related to the river basin issues, were selected for social network analysis. Organizations and governmental and non- governmental institutions related to the process of sustainable management were questioned. In this regard, according to the numerous studies conducted in the field of Zayandeh roud and Gavkhoni wetland , the number of organizations and related institutions were identified. Then, the network matrix of actors’ policy and collaboration was formed and centrality indices of input and output grades and betweenness centrality indices were measured through Ucinet software.
There are a wide range of active actors in management of Zayandeh roud river basin, each in an attempt to obtain more water resources from this river. As mentioned in the conceptual framework of the research, two key aspects are investigated. Key stakeholders analysis and their role in water resource management and review of actors ' policies in water resource management in two dimensions of belief in changing policies, and the need to change policy from the viewpoint of other actors. Accordingly, the research findings are presented in the following parts.
Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to evaluate the water resources of Zayandeh roud basin from the perspective of interactions between actors and formal institutions affecting their interactions. In this regard, it is attempted to answer two main questions: firstly, what is the organizational structure in management of Zayandeh roud?, Second, how far are the organizations’ policies and programs involved in the management of the watershed ?
In this study, Isfahan, Chaharmahal - bakhtiari , Khuzestan and Yazd which are related to the river basin issues, were selected for social network analysis. Organizations and governmental and non- governmental institutions related to the process of sustainable management were questioned. In this regard, according to the numerous studies conducted in the field of Zayandeh roud and Gavkhoni wetland , the number of organizations and related institutions were identified. Then, the network matrix of actors’ policy and collaboration was formed and centrality indices of input and output grades and betweenness centrality indices were measured through Ucinet software.
There are a wide range of active actors in management of Zayandeh roud river basin, each in an attempt to obtain more water resources from this river. As mentioned in the conceptual framework of the research, two key aspects are investigated. Key stakeholders analysis and their role in water resource management and review of actors ' policies in water resource management in two dimensions of belief in changing policies, and the need to change policy from the viewpoint of other actors. Accordingly, the research findings are presented in the following parts.
- decision making and facilitating information flow
- Power and control of actors in the network of organizational collaboration
- Co - ordination role in the enterprise - cooperative network
The findings of this research show that in the dimension of capacity and flow of information watershed management, Regional water organization in Isfahan province and in the next rank of water resources management, Zayandeh roud coordination council and Isfahan provincial governor are organizations that have high output degree and can play a key role in information flow. In other words, information that is necessary for the actors and other organizations is better flowed by these organizations.
In terms of supervision on the network of interactions and control over other actors in the basin, which was measured with the degree of centrality of input, Isfahan parliament representatives in the first and the agriculture jihad of Isfahan province gained the highest rank respectively. After these organizations which are mainly government and dependent entities, non - governmental organizations of three other provinces have the lowest rank in terms of ability to control the network. The lower power of NGOs in the social network of the organization indicates a low planning system for the management of the watershed. Comparative studies in the river basin show that the feature of the extent and diversity in the social - ecological system of a watershed among several distinct political areas can reveal the importance of the position of organizations that have a bargaining power in the watershed management network.
Betweenness centrality index in information exchange network has a fundamental role. The actors with the intermediary rate and high control power among the organizational stakeholders are the same organizational entrepreneurs who have an important role in establishing relationships and increasing interactions among other actors. If the actors with high degree of mediation are removed from the network, information exchange in the network will be disrupted.
It is obvious that without knowing these corporate entrepreneurs or in other words, actors with high mediation ability in the exchange information network, any activity in the direction of comprehensive management of land and sustainable development will be associated with time and cost. In connection with the task of coordination in watershed management, the Jihad of agriculture organization, department of environment and water room committee of Isfahan have obtained the highest degree of betweenness centrality which seems to be a suitable place due to their organizational functions. In this regard, attention and reinforcement of organizations such as NGOs and parliament representatives of three other provinces and provincial governor of these three provinces with low degree of betweenness centrality can be suggested. The lack of such interaction is undoubtedly one of the challenges facing sustainable management of the region. According to the results of other studies, it can be said that to achieve sustainable and integrated management of land and preservation of natural areas, it is necessary to study the pattern of relationship between organizational stakeholders.
The results show that the Regional water organization of Isfahan province and the Zayandeh roud coordination council have a higher position in decision making and information flow. On the other hand, the high performers of water resources such as Iran’s water resources management company and the Zayandeh roud coordinating council and in the next level, Regional water organization, the provincial governor and the parliament representatives of Isfahan are the best critics of the watershed governance. In contrast policies of jihad agricultural organization, farmers and Regional water organization of Isfahan have been criticized by other actors.
In terms of supervision on the network of interactions and control over other actors in the basin, which was measured with the degree of centrality of input, Isfahan parliament representatives in the first and the agriculture jihad of Isfahan province gained the highest rank respectively. After these organizations which are mainly government and dependent entities, non - governmental organizations of three other provinces have the lowest rank in terms of ability to control the network. The lower power of NGOs in the social network of the organization indicates a low planning system for the management of the watershed. Comparative studies in the river basin show that the feature of the extent and diversity in the social - ecological system of a watershed among several distinct political areas can reveal the importance of the position of organizations that have a bargaining power in the watershed management network.
Betweenness centrality index in information exchange network has a fundamental role. The actors with the intermediary rate and high control power among the organizational stakeholders are the same organizational entrepreneurs who have an important role in establishing relationships and increasing interactions among other actors. If the actors with high degree of mediation are removed from the network, information exchange in the network will be disrupted.
It is obvious that without knowing these corporate entrepreneurs or in other words, actors with high mediation ability in the exchange information network, any activity in the direction of comprehensive management of land and sustainable development will be associated with time and cost. In connection with the task of coordination in watershed management, the Jihad of agriculture organization, department of environment and water room committee of Isfahan have obtained the highest degree of betweenness centrality which seems to be a suitable place due to their organizational functions. In this regard, attention and reinforcement of organizations such as NGOs and parliament representatives of three other provinces and provincial governor of these three provinces with low degree of betweenness centrality can be suggested. The lack of such interaction is undoubtedly one of the challenges facing sustainable management of the region. According to the results of other studies, it can be said that to achieve sustainable and integrated management of land and preservation of natural areas, it is necessary to study the pattern of relationship between organizational stakeholders.
The results show that the Regional water organization of Isfahan province and the Zayandeh roud coordination council have a higher position in decision making and information flow. On the other hand, the high performers of water resources such as Iran’s water resources management company and the Zayandeh roud coordinating council and in the next level, Regional water organization, the provincial governor and the parliament representatives of Isfahan are the best critics of the watershed governance. In contrast policies of jihad agricultural organization, farmers and Regional water organization of Isfahan have been criticized by other actors.
Mr. Erfan Naseri, Mr. Alireza Massah Bavani, Mr. Tofigh Sadi,
Volume 8, Issue 1 (5-2021)
Volume 8, Issue 1 (5-2021)
Abstract
Detection and Attribution of Changing in Seasonal variability cause of climate change (Case study: Hillsides of Central Southern Alborz Mountains)
Abstract
One of the most important challenges for the human communities is Global Warming. This vital problem affected by Climate Change and corresponding effects. Thus this article attempted to assess the trend of real climate variables from synoptic stations. Daily precipitation, Daily Maximum Temperature and Daily Minimum Temperature have been selected for the Hillsides of Southern Central Alborz Mountains and have been tried to prove climate change and attribute the related forcing such as Greenhouse Gases. The Capital of Iran located in this region and this region has a special occasion, because at least a quarter of Iranian population live in these provinces (Tehran and Alborz) and four big dams located in this region. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s defines ‘‘detection’’ of climate change as ‘‘the process of demonstrating that climate or a system affected by climate has changed in some defined statistical sense, without providing a reason for that change,’’ while ‘‘attribution’’ is defined as the process of evaluating the relative contribution of multiple causal factors to a change or event with an assignment of statistical confidence. Regional D&A studies provide an insight to local changes in natural systems and may help in planning and developing robust adaptation strategies. Previously, formal detection and attribution have been used to investigate the nature of changes in various climatological variables such as air temperature, surface specific humidity, ocean heat, sea level pressure, continental river runoff, global land precipitation and precipitation extremes. However, almost all of these studies deal with climatological or meteorological variables at the global or continental scale. Studies which have attempted to formally detect and attribute regional hydrometeorological changes to anthropogenic effects are rare. Regional-scale D&A analysis is more difficult because the detection of anthropogenic ‘‘signal’’ in natural internal climate variability ‘‘noise’’ is determined by the signal-to-noise ratio which is proportional to the spatial scale of analysis, especially for real observation data. For overcoming this issue interpolation method (IDW) has been applied to transfer point data to area (gridded) data. The point data gathered from 3 synoptic stations (Mehrabad, Karaj and Abali). Then transferred data have been Standard and Averaged for 3 years. Standard values of annual and seasonal amounts have been computed for individual stations as the average of the standard values of annual and seasonal amounts available 3 years anomaly values. Estimates of annual or seasonal variables anomalies were obtained by averaging the annual or seasonal by 12 or 3 respectively. For detecting and attributing 3 simulation signals (ALL, GHG and NAT) selected from Canadian General Circulation Model (CanESM2.0) of CMIP5 archive subcategories. Space–time series of observations and model simulated variables responses to external forcings (the “signals”) first have been compared qualitatively by computing correlation coefficients between observations and simulations. This simple method does not optimize the signal-to-noise ratio nor provide a quantitative measure of the magnitude of model simulated response relative to that in the observations. Nevertheless, it provides an easy-to-understand view of the similarity between observed and model-simulated changes. Optimal detection and attribution analysis very often requires a reduction of dimensionality. This is typically done by projecting both observations and simulations onto leading empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of internal variability and using the residual consistency check to determine the number of EOFs to be retained in the analysis. To produce internal variability for residual test and consistency, Pi-Ctrl Runs have been used. The Preindustrial simulations have high volume, this subject complicates calculation therefore Experimental Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) have been used to reduce the Pi-Ctrl simulations volume and provide situations for Optimal Fingerprint. Optimal Fingerprint method is the best method for Detection and Attribution. Results have been obtained by this manner indicated Global Warming affected the study region by affecting on mean cumulative winter precipitation (0.88), mean spring minimum temperature (0.78) and mean summer maximum temperature (0.76). These numbers are the beta coefficient that named scaling factor. Although the scaling factor for the mean spring minimum temperature affected from GHG signal obtained (0.73), but the GHG forcing alone didn’t have a significant effect on the precipitation and maximum temperature. Also, NAT signal didn’t have significant effect on the region alone, too. The obtained results of this study indicate the earlier studies, such as Wan et al, 2014.
Key words: Climate change, Detection, Attribution, Optimal Fingerprint, Hillsides of Central Southern Alborz Mountains
Asadollah Hejazi, , Adnan Naseri,
Volume 8, Issue 2 (9-2021)
Volume 8, Issue 2 (9-2021)
Abstract
Zoning the possibility of landslides downstream of Sanandaj Dam
1-Introduction
The purpose of this study is to select the best model and identify landslide risk areas in the downstream basins of Sanandaj Dam. Every year, mass movements in the region cause damage to roads, power lines, natural resources, farms and residential areas, and increase soil erosion. Kurdistan province, with its mostly mountainous topography, high tectonic activity, diverse geological and climatic conditions, has the most natural conditions for mass movements. According to the available statistics, this province is the third province in terms of landslides after Mazandaran and Golestan. (Naeri, &Karami, 2018). The Gheshlagh River Basin is a mountainous region with a north-south trend. In terms of construction land, it is located on the structural zone of Sanandaj-Sirjan. The study area with an area of 970.7 square kilometers is located downstream of Sanandaj Dam. The city of Sanandaj is being studied within the region. Due to the type of climate and morphological processes, effective parameters are provided for landslides in the geography of the region.
2-Methodology
In this study, 9 effective factors for landslides, including slope, slope direction, fault distance, road distance, waterway distance, lithology, land use and precipitation were used. Using Google Landsat 8 ETM satellite imagery, Google Earth software identified 237 slip points. Then, the coordinates of the slip points were transferred to the Arc GIS software and a map of the landslide distribution area in this environment was prepared. Also, in this study, 89 non-slip points were prepared for use in the training and testing stages of Persephone neural network inside slopes less than 5 degrees. Artificial neural networks are made up of a large number of interconnected processing elements called neurons that act to solve a coordinated problem and transmit information through synapses. Neural networks begin to learn using the pattern of data entered into them. Learning models, which is actually determining their internal parameters, is based on the law of error correction. In this method, by correcting the error regularly, the best weights that create the most correct output for the network are identified. The neurons are in the form of an input layer, an output layer, and an intermediate layer. ahp includes a weighting matrix based on pairwise comparisons between factors and determines the level of participation of each factor in the occurrence of landslides. In this model, a large number of factors can be involved and the weight of each factor can be obtained using expert opinion.
3-Results
According to the results of the high-risk class neural network model, which occupies 31% of the basin area, it is the widest risk zone in the region. The middle class also accounts for more than 29 percent of the area, followed by the low-risk class. The results of the AHP model show that the middle class, with 32% of the area, has the highest dispersion in the region, the low-risk class and then the high-class are in the next position. The AHP model was used to prioritize the parameters affecting the landslide. The parameters of slope, lithology and land use play the most important role in the occurrence of landslides, respectively, and have the least role for slope direction, distance from fault and height. The results of the models used are consistent with the reality of the region's wide-risk hazards, and high-risk areas based on the models used are mostly located in the west and southwest of the basin. These areas correspond to the mountain unit and the steep slope. Based on the results of AHP model, the impact of human factors in the occurrence of landslides is weaker than the natural factors of the region and human factors play a stimulating and aggravating role in primary factors. Five methods for error detection were used to evaluate the models used
4-Discussion and conclusion
.Due to the sensitivity of unstable slopes in the region, any planning to change the use and construction that increases the weight of the load on unstable slopes should be done in terms of geomorphological and geological conditions of the region.
Keywords: hazard zoning, landslide, neural network, AHP. Sanandaj Gheshlagh Watershed
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