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Dr Alireza Mohammadi, Dr Lotfollah Maleki, Mr Ghasem Fathi,
Volume 9, Issue 4 (3-2023)
Volume 9, Issue 4 (3-2023)
Abstract
Spatial analysis models provide a single model and solution to solve various problems in the field of study, one of the applications of these models is in measuring urban risks. In recent years, with the occurrence of various crises in urban communities, the urban management system and development plans are seeking access to models of prevention and dealing with these crises. The purpose of this research is to review the literature about the use of spatial analysis models in measuring urban risks in a meta-analytical way, so this research is conducted by reviewing and summarizing foreign articles (research statistical community) in relation to this issue in order to identify, analyze and Analyzing and summarizing the solutions of the investigated backgrounds.
The statistical population is discussed with four standard criteria of spatial analysis, including description and identification of hazard dispersion, hazard dispersion argument, interpolation, and spatial planning. The statistical population is research, studies, and articles indexed in Sciencdirect, Willey, Web of Science databases in the period 2021-2000. Out of 99 articles, 78 articles have been selected and analyzed by screening method according to research objectives and indicators. The analysis was performed in two ways: descriptive statistics in SPSS software and inferential statistics in CMA2 comprehensive meta-analysis software.
The results indicate that in the component of hazard dispersion descriptions, most of the researches in their used models have not been able to provide a tangible and appropriate general description, but in the three components of hazard dispersion, interpolation, and spatial planning of urban hazards based on score The average effect size, the applied models used in the research, have been able to provide a proper justification and tangible results with the applied model of spatial analysis in their studies.
Dr Ebrahim Yousefi Mobarhan, Dr Mansor Ghodrati, Dr Mohamad Khosroshahi,
Volume 9, Issue 4 (3-2023)
Volume 9, Issue 4 (3-2023)
Abstract
In the study of the trend of dust storm index, the results showed that the study period of 2003-2007 in Semnan province has an increasing trend and has shown significant changes in the 95% confidence range, but the lack of significant changes in the last decade shows the effects of various events. In cross-cutting decisions in the field of dust in the region. The zoning of the DSI index changes in different regions of the province in a 15-year statistical period indicates that from the west to the east of the province due to the increase in the frequency of stormy days with moderate dust (MDS), dust has increased. The correlation between drought and DSI index in Semnan province showed that although DSI index increased during the period under analysis with increasing drought intensity and its correlation with drought during the 15-year period was not significant, but the pattern of DSI index is consistent with It is the pattern of the drought process. According to the results, it can be acknowledged that the dust situation has always been affected by climate, but the relationship between drought and the DSI index has always fluctuated with respect to droughts and wetlands. However, different climatic parameters are different and their impact is different. In addition to human activities, the main role of wind in the amount of dust or the existence of another source of dust should be considered.
Dr Kiomars Maleki, Dr Mostafa Taleshi, Dr Mehdi , Dr Mohammad Raoof Heidari Far,
Volume 9, Issue 4 (3-2023)
Volume 9, Issue 4 (3-2023)
Abstract
The results of pathological evaluation of seismic zones in the terrestrial space indicate a significant concentration of residential spaces, especially cities. It has been economic and human. Therefore, one of the desirable models in identifying, analyzing and reducing damage in urban spaces is to use the structural and functional framework of passive defense. In many recent studies, the subject of reducing earthquake damage in the territory of the physical-spatial field has been to increase the building's resistance to earthquakes. While this study by recognizing environmental components, physical-spatial, social, economic and effective indicators in each component (45 indicators) to determine the pathology and risk areas of earthquakes in a comprehensive and desirable and based on that reduction strategies Redefines risk. In other words, by recognizing and analyzing the basic concept of threat network and risk ring with passive defense approach in earthquake assessment and vulnerability in Kermanshah metropolis to form the required database structure in appropriate software environment, appropriate policy and urban crisis management measures It is designed in proportion to the earthquake risk.
Dr. Aliakbar Shamsipour, Dr. Hadis Sadeghi, Prof. Hosein Mohammadi, Dr. Mostafa Karimi,
Volume 9, Issue 4 (3-2023)
Volume 9, Issue 4 (3-2023)
Abstract
Climate is one of the determining factors in the quantity and quality of agricultural products, therefore, in this study, the relationship between precipitation and temperature (as explanatory variables) with rice yield in 40 cities and wheat yield in 30 cities (as dependent variables) was investigated in the Caspian coastal area during 2000-2017. Spatial statistical analyses were performed with using the Moran autocorrelation test and geographically weighted regression. Based on the results (Moran index, z = 0.4342121 for rice and z = 0.719571 for wheat, respectively), it was revealed that the spatial distribution pattern of rice and wheat yield had a cluster pattern. The results of the geographic weighted regression analysis showed that the temperature increase was more desirable than the precipitation increase so the increasing temperature could lead to yield increases. In the eastern parts of the study area, the positive effect of precipitation on rice yield (with 0.020 to 0.540 regression coefficients) was remarkable; the results also revealed a negative relationship between temperature and rice yield in the southeast and eastern parts and a positive effect on rice yield in other areas. Also, the effect of precipitation on wheat yield was negative in the west and central parts of the study area (with -0.481 to -0.871 regression coefficients). According to the results, a negative relationship was dominant between temperature and wheat yield in the east and southeastern parts of the study area and a positive relationship was detected in other areas. Finally, the results indicated that in the western and central parts, due to heavy rainfall and a low number of sunny hours, an increase in temperature is more favourable than an increase in rainfall. In the eastern and southeastern regions of the region, where the amount of precipitation is lower than the threshold required for rice and wheat, an increase in precipitation is more desirable.
Dr Mohammad Mahdi Hosseinzadeh, Dr Ali Reza Salehipor Milani, Mis Fateme Rezaian Zarandini,
Volume 10, Issue 1 (5-2023)
Volume 10, Issue 1 (5-2023)
Abstract
Introduction
A flood is a natural disaster caused by heavy rainfall, which causes casualties and damage to infrastructure and crops. Trend of floods in the world increasing due to climate change, changing rainfall patterns, rising sea levels in the future, and in addition, population growth and urban development and human settlements near river have caused floods to become a threat to humans. One of the most important and necessary tasks in catchments is to prepare flood risk maps and analyze them. In recent decades, researchers have been using remote sensing techniques and geographic information systems to obtain flood risk maps in an area. Due to the numerous floods that have occurred in the Neka river catchment, it is necessary to conduct a study entitled zoning of flood sensitivity in Neka river catchment for more effective management in this area.
Materials and methods
Study area: Neka river catchment area with an area of 1922
To study the flood zoning of the area using a multi-criteria decision model, 1: 25000 maps of the surveying organization and a digital elevation model with a resolution of 12.5 meters (Alos Palsar) were extracted. In order to study the flood risk in Neka river, 4 criteria of height, distance from the river, land use and slope have been used. In the present study, modeling and preparation of flood risk zoning map in 4 stage including descending valuation, normalization of each class, normalized index weight and integration of criteria has been done by the following linear weighting method. Performing linear weighting operations depends on the weighted average of a number of selected parameters in the opinion of the expert. According to the weight assigned to each criterion based on the expert opinion, each of the criteria was multiplied by the assigned weight and at the end the criteria were added together and the final zoning map was obtained.
Results and Discussion
In this study, using a multi-criteria decision-making system model, a flood risk zoning map in the Neka river catchment was prepared. According to the weight assigned to each criterion based on expert opinion, the final risk probability map has a value between 0.02 to 0.2, which is ultimately divided into 5 classes in terms of flood risk. Value range 0.02 to 0.06 component of very low risk zone, range 0.08 to 0.11 component of low-risk zone, range 0.11 to 0.13 component of medium-risk zone, range 0.13 to 0.16 component of high-risk zone, and finally domain 0.16 to 0.20 components of the area with very high risk potential have been obtained. According to the final divisions in the flood risk zoning map of the catchment area, a safe area means areas where the probability of flooding is very low and close to zero, and in contrast, the area with a high and very high risk potential for flooding has the probability of high-risk floods. According to the final flood risk zoning map, about 982
Conclusion
The results obtained from the model indicates that the highest risk of flooding points are located in the western parts of the Neka catchment area and the end of the catchment area that reach the city of Neka. According to the research findings, the most important factors in increasing the risk of floods were the slope in this area and the distance from the drainage network. According to the results of the model, a large area of the basin is a component of high risk zone, that means the Neka river watershed has a high potential for floods. Evidence and documented reports show that the Neka river Basin has experienced several floods in the last two decades. The major part of the occurrence of floods is due to the natural conditions of the basin, thus it is necessary to reduce flood damage by changing the locations of various land uses based on flood vulnerability maps. Using multi-criteria decision making method can be used to prepare flood risk zoning maps in basins that do not have hydrometric data; It is also a more cost-effective method in terms of time. One of the important issues in the final result of this model is due to the weight of the layers, which should be used by experts, who are familiar with the region and this method and adapt to field evidence.
Keyworlds: Flood, Multi-criteria decision making system(MCDA), Hazard zoning, Nekarod, Natural hazard.
Dr Javad Mozaffari, Mohamad Pooranvari, Dr Seyed Asadolah Mohseni Movahed,
Volume 10, Issue 1 (5-2023)
Volume 10, Issue 1 (5-2023)
Abstract
Introduction
Soil erosion is the process by which soil particles and components are separated from their main bed by an erosive agent and transported to another location. In the soil erosion process, there are three distinct phases: 1- separation of soil particles, 2- particle transfer and 3- sedimentation of transported materials. In water erosion, the erosive factors are rainfall and runoff. Erosion and the consequent reduction of soil fertility are among the issues that make it difficult to achieve sustainable agricultural development and environmental protection. It is important to study the quantity and quality of erosion in the country's watersheds and to prevent the loss of one of the richest and most valuable natural resources of the country, namely soil, and to fight against this process. (Tabatabai, 1392). Therefore, to calculate the rate of erosion and sediment production in most watersheds of the country that lack statistics or lack of statistics, the use of experimental models to estimate erosion and sediment is required. According to what has been said, the present study was conducted based on the following two main objectives: 1- Estimation of erosion and sediment in Adineh Masjed watershed, which is one of the main sub-basins of Kamal Saleh Dam, using EPM and MPSIAC experimental models and 2- Investigation and comparing two models and choosing a better model for similar regions and climates.
Materials and methods
Adineh Masjid watershed is one of the sub-basins of Dez and the main sub-basin of Kamal Saleh dam. Temperature, isotherm, geology of the area, slope and available information were performed and finally, by interpreting the photos, types, land units, current land use were determined and updated with field control. For a more detailed study, first, according to the condition of the main waterway and changes in the appearance of the land and vegetation and new land material, the ridges separating the basin were divided into 15 sub-basins. In EPM model, four watershed erosion coefficient (Ψ), land use coefficient (Xa), rock and soil susceptibility coefficient to erosion (Y) and average basin slope (I) and in MPSIAC model, nine geological, soil, climate factor (Climate), runoff, slope, vegetation, land use, current erosion status and waterway erosion are examined. Each model was scored according to data analysis and digital images and then placed in the relevant formula. Finally, the amount of erosion and sediment in the basin was estimated and the sedimentation class of the area was determined.
Results
To determine the score of nine factors affecting soil erosion using MPSIAC method and the four factors of EPM model, each of the factors affecting erosion in units were analyzed. Finally, by weighting, the points of each factor in the models were calculated. The degree of R deposition from the sum of the nine factors of MPSIAC model and the degree of Z erosion was obtained by combining the four EPM factors. Then, the amount of sediment production and erosion in the field of relationships related to each model was calculated and compared and analyzed. In MPSIAC model, the amount of specific sediment (M3 / Km2 / year) was calculated as 112.713 and the specific erosion (M3 / Km2 / year) was calculated as 375.71. In the EPM model, the amount of specific sediment (M3 / Km2 / year) was calculated as 213.95 and Specific erosion (M3 / Km2 / year) was calculated to be 395.86.
Discussion and conclusion
The results of sediment and erosion estimation were estimated separately for each sub-area using two models and it was found that the two models are somewhat relatively compatible with each other. The results of MPSIAC model, have more accuracy and reliability, and therefore the results of the MPSIAC model can be used to estimate the amount of sediment entering the Kamal Saleh Dam. However, due to the small distance between the results of the two models, if we do not have access to MPSIAC model data in similar areas, the EPM model can be used with less data and more easily accessible. It was also observed that in the upper and entrance parts of the basin, where the slope is higher and the vegetation is less, the amount of sediment production and erosion is higher in these areas. So that the upper parts of the basin are in the medium erosion class and the rest of the basin is in the low erosion class.
Keywords: watershed, erosion and sediment, modeling
Arastoo Yari Hesar, Bahram Imani, Samaneh Sarani,
Volume 10, Issue 1 (5-2023)
Volume 10, Issue 1 (5-2023)
Abstract
1. Introduction The geographical study of the corona virus shows that this virus is like the global cholera disease, whose first homeland was Wuhan (the vast capital of central China's Hubei province) and then it was transferred to other countries. The spread of this virus in a very short period of time has become one of the biggest international challenges after World War II, and examining the economic consequences of the spread of this disease is also very important and necessary for policy making.The Covid-19 virus has been able to change the lifestyle of people in different societies, and people finally changed their activities accordingly (Werf et al, 2021); (Staton et al, 2021) The visual and to some extent auditory consumption pattern has had a special place in the lifestyle of Iranians during the Covid-19 virus (Trabels, 2020). During the days of quarantine, social networks became very popular. People could not visit their family or friends and many of them kept in touch with each other using virtual networks. In fact, the spread of the corona virus has led to the further development of online social life. . Individual isolation and quarantine and the increase in consumption and tendency towards virtual and video entertainment media have intensified in this era (Staton & et al, 2021). 2. Methodology Leading research is applied in terms of purpose and based on descriptive-analytical nature. The method of collecting data to answer the research questions was library and questionnaire. The tool used in the survey method was a questionnaire. Face validity has been used to determine the reliability and validity of the questionnaire, and the face validity of the research tool was confirmed using the opinions of professors (fifteen people) in the field of rural development and experts in the field of health (ten people). 3. Results The statistical description of the characteristics of the sample in terms of gender showed that there were 302 men (83.4%) and 60 (16.6%) of them were women. Also, 56.9% of participants were married. The number of 146 people from the studied sample was between 41 and 50 years old, and the highest frequency was 40.3%. 4. Discussion To evaluate the effects of covid-19 on the lifestyle of the border villagers of Zabol city compared to before and after the disease outbreak, first one-sample T-test was used. The above test was performed at the 95% confidence level. In this regard, according to the 6-spectrum of the items (not at all = 0, very much = 5), the measurement and analysis of the indicators was evaluated at an average level (average 3). The results showed that lifestyles in media-oriented, community-oriented and livelihood indicators were below average before the outbreak of the Covid-19 disease, and after the outbreak of the disease, they were above average. In the health-oriented index of style status. Before the outbreak of the disease, life was below average and after that it was in an almost average state. In the leisure-oriented index, the life style before the outbreak of the disease was in an almost average state and after that it was in an above average state, and in the culture index The axis of lifestyle status changed after the outbreak of the Covid-19 disease and was in a higher than average status. To investigate the existence of differences between lifestyle indicators among the border villagers of Zabol city, before and after the outbreak of the Covid-19 disease, the paired or dependent t-test was used at the 95% confidence or significance level. 5. Conclusion Limiting communication and face-to-face interactions of people with each other, closing down gatherings, improving the level of personal and public hygiene such as frequent hand washing, using masks and sanitary gloves, maintaining distance from others and observing other protocols. health services, reforming the society's consumption pattern, improving social capital and increasing the level of empathy and social harmony and paying more attention to the lower classes of society, changing the type of entertainment, closing religious centers and holy places, modern social life in the context of virtual space and improving the level media literacy, reduction of air and ground travel traffic, internet shopping and sales, more convergence of family members, The growth of the culture of reading books, watching more series and movies, moving sports from group type to individual type, reducing fashion trends, holding distance education courses and many other such things, many changes. has created in the lifestyle of people. Of course, these changes are relative and are not the same in all societies and for all social strata, and not everyone has been equally affected by these changes. Keywords: Corona, lifestyle, community-oriented, subsistence
Dr Ghasem Azizi, Dr Samaneh Negah, Dr Nima Farid Mojtahedi, Mr Yossef Shojaie,
Volume 10, Issue 1 (5-2023)
Volume 10, Issue 1 (5-2023)
Abstract
Abstract
The continuous and expanding process of global warming, especially in the Asian region, has provided the conditions for increasing drought and the spread of desertification. Many deserts had ecologically balanced soil conservation conditions that until recently have become new sources of dust generation now. Numerous examples have occurred in Iran due to its special geographical location among some of the most important deserts in the world. Temperature anomaly (about 8º C) last winter in the Caspian Sea basin has created new dust sources for the southern coastal of the Caspian Sea. On 30-31 May 1400, dust emission was recorded in meteorological stations of Gilan province in terms of area and concentration. The implementation of HYSPLIT chemical backward models shows the emission of dust from the northwestern region of the Caspian Sea to the southern coastal of the Caspian Sea (Guilan province) for the first time with such intensity. The source and origin of this dust was identified in the Rhine desert in the northwest of the Caspian Sea. Continuous and unprecedented warming in the region and accompanied by strong north-south currents provided the conditions for the emission of this dust. Due to the origin of the emitted dust as well as the geographical and topographical conditions of the Caspian Sea basin, the level of this dust was assessed from the ground level to an altitude of less than 1500 meters. Analysis of synoptic conditions using NCEP / NCAR analysis data with 1 degree horizontal resolution indicates the establishment of high pressure air mass with a center of 1018 hPa on the northwestern parts of the Caspian Sea and the penetration of high pressure to the southern coastal areas of the Caspian Sea. Due to the appropriate pressure gradient and increasing wind speed, dust-producing springs are formed on the desert areas of the Rhine and with the dominance of the northern currents (south-south), the dust mass is sent to Gilan province.
Keywords: Global Warming, Dust emission, Russian Rhine Desert, Gilan.
Mrs Halimeh Shahzaei, Dr Mohsen Hamidianpour, Dr Mahsa Farzaneh,
Volume 10, Issue 2 (9-2023)
Volume 10, Issue 2 (9-2023)
Abstract
Spatial analysis of Iran's climate change from the point of view of sensible heat flux and latent heat flux by Bowen method
Halimeh Shahzaei; Ms.c student of Climatology, Departement of Physical Geography, University of Sistan and Baluchistan, Zahedan, Iran.
Mohsen Hamidianpour[1]; Associate Professor, Departement of Physical Geography, University of Sistan and Baluchistan, Zahedan, Iran.
Mahsa Farzaneh; Ph.D Graduated. Climatology.
Abstract
Sensible heat flux and latent heat flux are among the variables that are closely related to temperature and humidity and show heat transfer on a surface. So, their changes can be considered related to changes in temperature and humidity. In this regard, the current research aims to analyze and reveal the climatic changes of Iran by examining the course of changes in sensible heat flux and latent heat and the ratio between the two. For this purpose, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data including sensible and latent heat flux during the period 1948-2020 was used in Iran. Bowen coefficient was calculated from the ratio of these two heat fluxes. Interpolation methods were used for their spatio-temporal analysis. In addition, by using the non-parametric methods of Mann-Kendall and Shibsen, spatial and temporal changes were also investigated. The first part of the results showed that, spatially, the Bowen coefficient is a function of latitude and roughness. And in terms of time, the lowest value corresponds to the month of January and the highest value corresponds to the month of July. The results of the second part show that the Bowen coefficient has a positive trend over time. Its upward trend indicates an increase in the dryness coefficient of the country. So that this situation can be seen in the positive trend and increase in temperature.
Keywords: climate change, Bowen coefficient, global warming, spatio-temporal analysis.
[1]. Autehr corespound:Email: mhamidianpour@gep.usb.ac.ir
Leila Ahadi, Hossein Asakereh, Younes Khosravi,
Volume 10, Issue 2 (9-2023)
Volume 10, Issue 2 (9-2023)
Abstract
Simulation of Zanjan temperature trends based on climate scenarios and artificial neural network method
Abstract
Severe climate changes (and global warming) in recent years have led to changes in weather patterns and the emergence of climate anomalies in most parts of the world. The process of climate change, especially temperature changes, is one of the most important challenges in the field of earth sciences and environmental sciences. Any change in the temperature characteristics, as one of the important climatic elements of any region, causes a change in the climatic structure of that region. The summary of the investigated experimental models on climate change shows that if the concentration of greenhouse gases increases in the same way, the average temperature of the earth will increase dangerously in the near future. More than 70% of the world's CO2 emissions are attributed to cities. It is expected that with the continuation of the urbanization process, the amount of greenhouse gases will increase. According to the fifth report of the International Panel on Climate Change, the average global temperature has increased by 0.85 degrees Celsius during 1880-2012. Therefore, knowing the temperature changes and trends in environmental planning based on the climate knowledge of each point and region seems essential. For this reason, the present study simulates the daily temperature (minimum, maximum and average) of Zanjan until the year 2100.
Research Methods
The method of conducting the research is descriptive-analytical and the method of collecting data is library (documents). To check the temperature of Zanjan city, the minimum, maximum and average daily temperature data from Hamdeed station of Zanjan city during the period of 1961-2021 were used. The data of general atmospheric circulation model was used to simulate climate variables (minimum, average and maximum temperature) using artificial neural network and climate scenarios in future periods. The output variables in this study are minimum, maximum and average daily temperature. Therefore, three neural network models were selected. For model simulation, model inputs (independent variables) need to be selected from among 26 atmospheric variables. Therefore, two methods of progressive and step-by-step elimination were chosen to determine the inputs of the model. In these methods, climate variables that have the highest correlation with minimum, maximum and average daily temperature were selected. By using RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, variables were simulated until the year 2100. Markov chain model was used to check the possibility of occurrence of extreme temperatures of the simulated values.
results
According to the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios and the simulation made by the neural network model, it is possible that on average the minimum temperature will be 3.6 degrees Celsius, the average temperature will be 3.3 degrees Celsius and the maximum temperature will be 2.7 degrees Celsius. Celsius will rise. The monthly review of the simulated data for all scenarios and the observed data of the studied variables shows that the average minimum, average and maximum temperatures in January and February, which are the coldest months of the year, will increase the most and become warmer. While the average minimum temperature in August, the average temperature in April and the maximum temperature in October will have the least increase. According to the simulated seasonal temperature table based on all scenarios, it was found that the average minimum, average and maximum temperature observed with the maximum simulated conditions were 6.9, 5.5 and 5.4 respectively in the winter season, and 3.3 in the spring season. 4, 2.3 and 3, in the summer season it increases by 3.3, 3.4 and 1.4 and in the autumn season it increases by 4.6, 4.5 and zero degrees. The frequency of extreme temperatures observed in all three variables of minimum, average and maximum temperature for the 25th and 75th quartiles is less than the number of occurrences of extreme temperatures simulated in all three scenarios. Based on this, all three variables will increase and there will be fewer cold periods. An increase in night temperature and average temperature in winter season and maximum temperature in summer season will occur more than other seasons. The difference between day and night temperature will be less in autumn and summer. Also, all seasons, especially the summer season, will be hotter and the occurrence of extreme temperatures is increasing for the coming years.
Keywords: climate scenarios, simulation, extreme temperatures, artificial neural network, Zanjan
Fatemeh Hosseini, Mohammad Hemmati , Mahtab Jafari, Alireza Estelaji,
Volume 10, Issue 2 (9-2023)
Volume 10, Issue 2 (9-2023)
Abstract
Flood is one of the most destructive weather hazards in the world. The frequent occurrence of urban floods has affected public safety and limited the sustainable development of the social economy. The present study was conducted with the aim of preparing a flood intensity zoning map and analyzing its relationship with vegetation in Qirokarzin city in Fars province. For this purpose, after reviewing various sources, by introducing five effective criteria in the occurrence of floods, which were repeated in other researches in this field, the factors of height, slope, and distance from the river, topographic index and height of runoff were selected as effective factors. By using the method of network analysis process (ANP) in Super decision software, weighting and then using the simple weighted sum method, the final map has been obtained. In this regard, vegetation changes have been obtained using Landsat images in 2000 and 2021 and NDVI index. The results showed that the most effective criterion was the topographic index and Qirokarzin city was located in five zones of very low, low, medium, high and very high risk of flooding, among which 1849/6 square kilometer (54.8%) of Qirokarzin city were in the zone with the risk of flooding is very high. also, the analysis of vegetation changes showed that despite the development of agriculture and horticulture and the resulting relative improvement of the average values of the NDVI index, in the upper reaches of the watersheds of this city, the vegetation cover of forest and pasture lands has decreased significantly, and finally the effects of this problem lead to residential areas and agricultural and horticultural lands in 2021 compared to 2000 are located in areas with high flood potential with a higher percentage, this issue can confirm that the protection of land use in the upstream area is in accordance with to what extent can the policy of maintaining the existing cover and developing vegetation covers by using plants that have high soil protection value play a role in mitigating and suppressing the flooding of the downstream lands.
Kaveh Mohammadpour, Ali Mohammad Khorshiddoust, Gona Ahmadi,
Volume 10, Issue 2 (9-2023)
Volume 10, Issue 2 (9-2023)
Abstract
Introduction
Dust storm is a complex process affected by the earth-atmophere system. The interaction between the earth and atmosphere is in the realm of the climatologists and meteorologists, who assess atmospheric and climatic changes, and monitor dust spread. Dust is the main type of aerosols which affects directly and indirectly radiation budget. In addition, altogether they affect the temperature change, cloud formation, convection, and precipitation. The most important studies about dust analysis have considered the use of remote sensing technique and global models for analyzing the behavior and dynamics of dust in recent two decades. To achieve such a goal, this paper has used MODIS and NDDI data to study and identify the behavior of atmospheric dust in half west of Iran.
Materials and methods
The western region of Iran is the study area. The data used in this study are divided into two categories: ground-based observations in 27 synoptic stations extracted from the Iran’s Meteorological Organization during the period (1998-2010) and satellite MODIS images during the first to fourth days of July 2008 as atmospheric dust extremes. Data was analyzed by using ArcGIS and ENVI software and NDDI index.
Results and Discussion
According to results, interpolated map for the number of dusty days during the study period over the western half of Iran showed that the scope of study area does not involve an equal system aspect quantity of occurrences. The number of dusty days occurrences increase from north toward south and the sites located in northern proportions of the area have experienced lower dust events. In contrast, maximum hotspots are occurring over southwestern sites such as: Ahvaz, Ilam, Boushehr and Shiraz. Therefore, principal offspring of dust input has been out of country boundaries and arrived at distant areas. Also, based on results obtained using satellite remote sensing images and applied NDDI index, maximum of intense dust cover is observed over Fars, Ilam, Boushehr and Ahvaz provinces on the first, second, third and fourth of July. However, the lowest rate of index situated in extent far such as: East and West Azerbaijan provinces. Thus, parts located on the north of the study area experienced less dusty days and the maximum dust cores were located in the southwestern (mostly Khuzestan). The long-term results were consistent with the daily average of NDDI index in the whole study area and indicated the hotspot areas (Ilam, Ahvaz, Omidyeh, Bushehr and Shiraz) during the first to fourth days of July 2008. However, the level of dust cover in the region has reduced when a wet and cloudy synoptic system passes over the central and northwestern parts of the study area.
Conclusions
The climatic interpolated map interpretation indicated that increase of dust concentration based on ground-based stations, which are consistent with dust concentration, is overshadowed by the latitude and proximity of sources of dust source in the Middle East. Also, the long-term climatic results of ground-based observations were consistent with the NDDI index calculated on dust extremes in the whole study area and in the southern areas (Ilam, Ahvaz, Omidyeh, Bushehr and Shiraz) during study days of July, 2008. Therefore, dust occurrence increases from north to south and the maximum hotspots over southwestern confirm the proximity of the south western region of Iran to deserts and sedimentary plains and their direct relationship with dust sources in the Middle East. These regions highlight the volume and expansion of dust outbreaks, which were well detected due to the satellite imagery and spectral characteristics of MODIS for monitoring changes in the dust phenomenon.
Overall, the use of satellite remotely sensed data/images not only cover the ground-based observation datasets gap to identify, highlight, and analyse the dust phenomenon, but also takes a much more geographical approach in analysing environmental hazards such as dust. It is also suitable for studies of atmospheric compounds such as atmospheric aerosols.
Dust storm is a complex process affected by the earth-atmophere system. The interaction between the earth and atmosphere is in the realm of the climatologists and meteorologists, who assess atmospheric and climatic changes, and monitor dust spread. Dust is the main type of aerosols which affects directly and indirectly radiation budget. In addition, altogether they affect the temperature change, cloud formation, convection, and precipitation. The most important studies about dust analysis have considered the use of remote sensing technique and global models for analyzing the behavior and dynamics of dust in recent two decades. To achieve such a goal, this paper has used MODIS and NDDI data to study and identify the behavior of atmospheric dust in half west of Iran.
Materials and methods
The western region of Iran is the study area. The data used in this study are divided into two categories: ground-based observations in 27 synoptic stations extracted from the Iran’s Meteorological Organization during the period (1998-2010) and satellite MODIS images during the first to fourth days of July 2008 as atmospheric dust extremes. Data was analyzed by using ArcGIS and ENVI software and NDDI index.
Results and Discussion
According to results, interpolated map for the number of dusty days during the study period over the western half of Iran showed that the scope of study area does not involve an equal system aspect quantity of occurrences. The number of dusty days occurrences increase from north toward south and the sites located in northern proportions of the area have experienced lower dust events. In contrast, maximum hotspots are occurring over southwestern sites such as: Ahvaz, Ilam, Boushehr and Shiraz. Therefore, principal offspring of dust input has been out of country boundaries and arrived at distant areas. Also, based on results obtained using satellite remote sensing images and applied NDDI index, maximum of intense dust cover is observed over Fars, Ilam, Boushehr and Ahvaz provinces on the first, second, third and fourth of July. However, the lowest rate of index situated in extent far such as: East and West Azerbaijan provinces. Thus, parts located on the north of the study area experienced less dusty days and the maximum dust cores were located in the southwestern (mostly Khuzestan). The long-term results were consistent with the daily average of NDDI index in the whole study area and indicated the hotspot areas (Ilam, Ahvaz, Omidyeh, Bushehr and Shiraz) during the first to fourth days of July 2008. However, the level of dust cover in the region has reduced when a wet and cloudy synoptic system passes over the central and northwestern parts of the study area.
Conclusions
The climatic interpolated map interpretation indicated that increase of dust concentration based on ground-based stations, which are consistent with dust concentration, is overshadowed by the latitude and proximity of sources of dust source in the Middle East. Also, the long-term climatic results of ground-based observations were consistent with the NDDI index calculated on dust extremes in the whole study area and in the southern areas (Ilam, Ahvaz, Omidyeh, Bushehr and Shiraz) during study days of July, 2008. Therefore, dust occurrence increases from north to south and the maximum hotspots over southwestern confirm the proximity of the south western region of Iran to deserts and sedimentary plains and their direct relationship with dust sources in the Middle East. These regions highlight the volume and expansion of dust outbreaks, which were well detected due to the satellite imagery and spectral characteristics of MODIS for monitoring changes in the dust phenomenon.
Overall, the use of satellite remotely sensed data/images not only cover the ground-based observation datasets gap to identify, highlight, and analyse the dust phenomenon, but also takes a much more geographical approach in analysing environmental hazards such as dust. It is also suitable for studies of atmospheric compounds such as atmospheric aerosols.
Mohammad Hosein Dadkhah, Behnod Barmayehvar,
Volume 10, Issue 2 (9-2023)
Volume 10, Issue 2 (9-2023)
Abstract
In recent years, with the significant increase in the number of various unfortunate events such as financial crises, natural and unnatural disasters, etc., the ability to survive has been a vital issue for projects, especially in infrastructure industries such as the building industry. In fact, projects like temporary systems need to endure in order to prevent and reduce the impact of damages. Therefore, the main goal of the current research is to investigate the factors affecting the enhancement of resilience in building projects in order to reduce damages and failures caused by accidents and disruptions. In this regard, in this combined research, effective factors were first introduced by using library studies. Next, the collected data through field studies and interviews with ten research experts, were analyzed (thematic qualitative). Based on this, the main and secondary effective factors were identified, modified and finalized in three time periods before, during and after construction. After that, the main factors were prioritized using a questionnaire distributed among sixty-one people, SPSS quantitative software, and the Friedman test; which are respectively: in the pre-construction stage - laws and macro policies and feasibility studies; In the construction phase - safety, project team, monitoring and controling, construction technology, agile management, education, stakeholder management, cost management, communication management, schedule management and lessons learned, and in the post-construction phase - crisis management, repair and maintenance and culturalization. Finally, the findings of the research show that adopting a management approach based on resilience in projects, especially in the field of building, can minimize damages and failures caused by accidents and disruptions.
It should be mentioned that, in the context of project management, especially in project-oriented organizations, this need is felt that new methods should be used to control incidents and disruptions, so that the destructive effect created can be reduced. In fact, around the implementation of modern and resilient project management, especially in the field of building, it is essential to conceptualize and operationalize resilience in projects in order to know how to achieve project recovery for better management of accidents and disruptions.
In this direction, although many scientific efforts have been made to achieve the goals of the projects and also to prevent their failure in the face of various incidents and risks, but there are less complete and desirable research papers to investigate these factors in the form of the concept of resilience and its use in the context. Project management, especially in the building industry (with regard to inclusiveness as well as micro and macro impact and all-round participation of the building field in development), especially in the country. Meanwhile, the concept of resilience has been used competently in other scientific fields; Therefore, the present research was formed to help improve the professional knowledge of project management from the perspective of resilience.
In thid regard, it should be noted that each research subject has its own unique characteristics; However, all research projects, regardless of the phenomenon under investigation, generally have stages such as: implementation plan (background, statistical population, experts, etc.), research questions, data collection (interview, questionnaire, etc.) and analysis and interpretation of data, both quantitative and qualitative (thematic, statistical analysis, etc.). In this research, first the required data were identified from the background of the research, and then with the help of interviews with experts, the collected data were verified and completed, and then these data were prioritized through a quantitative survey and questionnaire. In fact, the main objective of this research is to investigate the solutions to increase the resilience of the project. Therefore, the current research is applied-developmental in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of the method of gathering information. Also, in this research, while focusing on the research philosophy of pragmatism and to some extent interpretation, as well as emphasizing the inductive and to some extent deductive approach, the exploratory mixed research plan has been used to provide a model to represent the phenomenon under study. In a way, the mixed or combined research method, consisting of two parts, qualitative and quantitative, has been used in order to increase the validity of the processes and findings and validate the outputs of the current research. Of course, it is worth noting that the general nature of this research is qualitative, and therefore, the qualitative part, both in terms of breadth and depth, is much more and more important than the quantitative part, and in fact, the quantitative part has a complementary state.
It should be mentioned that, in the context of project management, especially in project-oriented organizations, this need is felt that new methods should be used to control incidents and disruptions, so that the destructive effect created can be reduced. In fact, around the implementation of modern and resilient project management, especially in the field of building, it is essential to conceptualize and operationalize resilience in projects in order to know how to achieve project recovery for better management of accidents and disruptions.
In this direction, although many scientific efforts have been made to achieve the goals of the projects and also to prevent their failure in the face of various incidents and risks, but there are less complete and desirable research papers to investigate these factors in the form of the concept of resilience and its use in the context. Project management, especially in the building industry (with regard to inclusiveness as well as micro and macro impact and all-round participation of the building field in development), especially in the country. Meanwhile, the concept of resilience has been used competently in other scientific fields; Therefore, the present research was formed to help improve the professional knowledge of project management from the perspective of resilience.
In thid regard, it should be noted that each research subject has its own unique characteristics; However, all research projects, regardless of the phenomenon under investigation, generally have stages such as: implementation plan (background, statistical population, experts, etc.), research questions, data collection (interview, questionnaire, etc.) and analysis and interpretation of data, both quantitative and qualitative (thematic, statistical analysis, etc.). In this research, first the required data were identified from the background of the research, and then with the help of interviews with experts, the collected data were verified and completed, and then these data were prioritized through a quantitative survey and questionnaire. In fact, the main objective of this research is to investigate the solutions to increase the resilience of the project. Therefore, the current research is applied-developmental in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of the method of gathering information. Also, in this research, while focusing on the research philosophy of pragmatism and to some extent interpretation, as well as emphasizing the inductive and to some extent deductive approach, the exploratory mixed research plan has been used to provide a model to represent the phenomenon under study. In a way, the mixed or combined research method, consisting of two parts, qualitative and quantitative, has been used in order to increase the validity of the processes and findings and validate the outputs of the current research. Of course, it is worth noting that the general nature of this research is qualitative, and therefore, the qualitative part, both in terms of breadth and depth, is much more and more important than the quantitative part, and in fact, the quantitative part has a complementary state.
Fateme Emadoddin, Dr Ali Ahmadabadi, Seyed Morovat Eftekhari, Masumeh Asadi Gandomani,
Volume 10, Issue 3 (9-2023)
Volume 10, Issue 3 (9-2023)
Abstract
Introduction: Land subsidence is one of the environmental hazards that threatens most countries today, including the majority of Iran's plains (Ranjabr and Jafari, 2010). Damages caused by subsidence can be direct or indirect. Infrastructural effects are direct and indirect effects of subsidence, but economic, social and environmental effects are indirect effects of subsidence (Bucx, et al., 2015). The environmental effects of subsidence are related to other effects of subsidence, including the infrastructural, economic and social effects of subsidence. The southwest plain of Tehran is considered one of the most important plains of Iran due to its large areas of residential, agricultural and industrial lands from various aspects, especially economic, political and social. The subsidence of the Tehran plain was first noticed by the measurements of the country's mapping organization in the 1370s. Since 2004, the responsibility of investigating this phenomenon in the plains of Tehran was entrusted to the Organization of Geology and Mineral Explorations of the country. Although several researches have been done in the field of subsidence factors, amount and zoning. In the field of estimation of subsidence and changes in water level, spatial correlation of subsidence with changes in water level and estimation of vulnerability due to subsidence according to the density of population, settlements and facilities in the southwestern plain of Tehran has not been done.
Methodology: In the current research, we will analyze and estimate the spatial regression of the subsidence phenomenon by InSAR technique with water level changes from 2005 to 2017, as well as the environmental effects of subsidence in the southwest plain of Tehran by using Quadratic analysis method (O’Sullivan and Unwin, 2010). The criteria map of the current research is overlapped using the ANP method (Ahmedabadi and Ghasemi, 2015) weighting and finally with the SAW method (Emaduddin et al., 2014) in the Arc GIS 10.8 software, and the vulnerability map due to land subsidence in the study area is prepared.
Results: The average subsidence in 12 years is about 9.9 cm per year. Average subsidence has occurred in four main zones. Maximum and minimum subsidence have been observed in B (near the Sabashahr) and D (in east of plain) zones respectively. The results of the interpolation of the depth of the underground water in the study area indicate that the general trend of increasing the depth from the south (10 meter) to the north (more than 90 meter) of the plain. The results of spatial correlation showed that there is a significant direct relationship between the spatial layer of the average subsidence rate of Tehran Plain and the spatial data of the underground water level, and the R value is equal to 0.61. The distribution map of the underground water depth of the study area in the form of Quadrat analysis shows that in the main part of the plain, the depth of underground water is at an average level. The general trend of changes in the level of underground water is decreasing from northwest to southeast and is in 5 levels. The distribution of the networks shows that the rivers have three linear trends from north and northwest to south; their dispersion is mostly in the center of the study area. The flood rate is higher in the central plain networks. In study area, there are important arterial roads such as Tehran-Qom highway, Tehran-Saveh highway and Tehran Azadegan highway. The southern and northeastern areas of the study area are urban settlements such as Islamshahr, the 18th and 19th districts of Tehran Municipality and other residential areas such as Sabashahr. The major part of the region has fertile soil and the occurrence of subsidence can have negative effects on the fertility and texture of the soil in the study area. The results of vulnerability analysis due to subsidence show that there are 5 vulnerability classes in the study area including very low, low, medium, high and very high.
Conclusions: All in all most of the study areas (central, northern and western networks) are in medium, high and very high vulnerability. About 14,600 hectares of the study area are in medium vulnerability. Which is continuous from the west to the east of the study area. Most of the urban infrastructures are moderately vulnerable to subsidence. About 17,000 hectares of the southwestern plain of Tehran are very vulnerable. That more than half of the area of this area is covered by settlements and urban infrastructures. Therefore, the phenomenon of subsidence causes irreparable damage to the settlements and infrastructures in the southwest plain.
Methodology: In the current research, we will analyze and estimate the spatial regression of the subsidence phenomenon by InSAR technique with water level changes from 2005 to 2017, as well as the environmental effects of subsidence in the southwest plain of Tehran by using Quadratic analysis method (O’Sullivan and Unwin, 2010). The criteria map of the current research is overlapped using the ANP method (Ahmedabadi and Ghasemi, 2015) weighting and finally with the SAW method (Emaduddin et al., 2014) in the Arc GIS 10.8 software, and the vulnerability map due to land subsidence in the study area is prepared.
Results: The average subsidence in 12 years is about 9.9 cm per year. Average subsidence has occurred in four main zones. Maximum and minimum subsidence have been observed in B (near the Sabashahr) and D (in east of plain) zones respectively. The results of the interpolation of the depth of the underground water in the study area indicate that the general trend of increasing the depth from the south (10 meter) to the north (more than 90 meter) of the plain. The results of spatial correlation showed that there is a significant direct relationship between the spatial layer of the average subsidence rate of Tehran Plain and the spatial data of the underground water level, and the R value is equal to 0.61. The distribution map of the underground water depth of the study area in the form of Quadrat analysis shows that in the main part of the plain, the depth of underground water is at an average level. The general trend of changes in the level of underground water is decreasing from northwest to southeast and is in 5 levels. The distribution of the networks shows that the rivers have three linear trends from north and northwest to south; their dispersion is mostly in the center of the study area. The flood rate is higher in the central plain networks. In study area, there are important arterial roads such as Tehran-Qom highway, Tehran-Saveh highway and Tehran Azadegan highway. The southern and northeastern areas of the study area are urban settlements such as Islamshahr, the 18th and 19th districts of Tehran Municipality and other residential areas such as Sabashahr. The major part of the region has fertile soil and the occurrence of subsidence can have negative effects on the fertility and texture of the soil in the study area. The results of vulnerability analysis due to subsidence show that there are 5 vulnerability classes in the study area including very low, low, medium, high and very high.
Conclusions: All in all most of the study areas (central, northern and western networks) are in medium, high and very high vulnerability. About 14,600 hectares of the study area are in medium vulnerability. Which is continuous from the west to the east of the study area. Most of the urban infrastructures are moderately vulnerable to subsidence. About 17,000 hectares of the southwestern plain of Tehran are very vulnerable. That more than half of the area of this area is covered by settlements and urban infrastructures. Therefore, the phenomenon of subsidence causes irreparable damage to the settlements and infrastructures in the southwest plain.
Nazanin Salimi , Marzban Faramarzi, Dr Mohsen Tavakoli, Dr Hasan Fathizad,
Volume 10, Issue 3 (9-2023)
Volume 10, Issue 3 (9-2023)
Abstract
In recent years, groundwater discharge is more than recharge, resulting in a drop-down in groundwater levels. Rangeland and forest are considered the main recharge areas of groundwater, while the most uses of these resources are done in agricultural areas. The main goal of this research is to use machine learning algorithms including random forest and Shannon's entropy function to model groundwater resources in a semi-arid rangeland in western Iran. Therefore, the layers of slope degree, slope aspect, elevation, distance from the fault, the shape of the slope, distance from the waterway, distance from the road, rainfall, lithology, and land use were prepared. After determining the weight of the parameters using Shannon's entropy function and then determining their classes, the final map of the areas with the potential of groundwater resources was modeled from the combination of the weight of the parameters and their classes. In addition, R 3.5.1 software and the randomForest package were used to run the random forest (RF) model. In this research, k-fold cross-validation was used to validate the models. Moreover, the statistical indices of MAE, RMSE, and R2 were used to evaluate the efficiency of the RF model and Shannon's entropy for finding the potential of underground water resources. The results showed that the RF model with accuracy (RMSE: 3.41, MAE: 2.85, R² = 0.825) has higher accuracy than Shannon's entropy model with accuracy (R² = 0.727, RMSE: 4.36, MAE: 3.34). The findings of the random forest model showed that most of the studied area has medium potential (26954.2 ha) and a very small area (205.61 ha) has no groundwater potential. On the other hand, the results of Shannon's entropy model showed that most of the studied area has medium potential (24633.05 ha) and a very small area (1502.1 ha) has no groundwater potential.
Parastou Darouei , Parviz Zeaiean, Farhad Azizpour, Vahid Riahi,
Volume 10, Issue 3 (9-2023)
Volume 10, Issue 3 (9-2023)
Abstract
Introduction
Agricultural activities, as a foundation of growth and development and part of the rural development process, guarantee the economic life of many villages in the country. However, in recent years, other products' water scarcity and resource limitations have affected these activities. This issue has severely challenged the sustainability and life of rural settlements.
In this regard, organizing and developing an optimal cropping pattern is necessary to achieve the goals of sustainable agricultural and rural development in Iran. To achieve this goal, the cultivation of crops must be commensurate with the capabilities of production resources, especially water resources.
Therefore, determining the appropriate spatial distribution of agricultural lands for the cultivation of various crops is one of the primary foundations for implementing optimal cropping pattern. Accordingly, the present study seeks to identify suitable spatial zoning for wheat and barley cultivation as the main crops in agricultural lands in traditional Lenjanat regions, which are exposed to a growing water crisis.
Data and Methodology
According to the main purpose of the research, the data obtained from spatial distribution maps of current cropping patterns and spatial distribution of suitable lands for crop cultivation.
This study prepared the suitability maps of the major agricultural products at a distance of 10 km on both sides of Zayandeh Rud River in Lenjanat region using multi-criteria decision-making methods.
Thus, the agronomic-ecological needs of the two major crops in the area (wheat and barley) were determined, and a standard map for each crop was classified using ArcGIS software. Then, the digital layers were combined by allocating the weight obtained from the Analytical Hierarchy Process and the Simple Additive Weighting method. Finally, talent assessment and land zoning was performed in four categories from unsuitable to very suitable for cultivating wheat and barley crops. Using the analytical hierarchy process method and experts' opinions led to high accuracy results.
Results and Discussion
The results of the land suitability map showed that 90.6% of the agricultural lands in the study area are very suitable and relatively suitable for the cultivation of the wheat crop. The northern and eastern regions, located in Falavarjan county and the north part of Mobarakeh county, are the most suitable areas for wheat cultivation. As we move from the north and east to the west of the study area, the capability areas for wheat cultivation decrease. Limiting factors in these areas are unsuitable soil texture, low temperature, shallow soil, high slope, low rainfall and drainage.
As for barley cultivation, a large part of the area, equal to 30635.3 hectares (more than 91%), is very suitable and relatively suitable. In these areas, in the northern and eastern parts of Lenjanat, unsuitable soil texture, shallow soil, high slope and low drainage are the most critical limiting factors for barley cultivation.
A comparison of "spatial distribution of land suitability" with "spatial distribution of cropping pattern" shows that the crops in this study (wheat and barley) have been cultivated in a suitable area in terms of the ecological potential of lands.
Conclusion
The results of this evaluation can be used in the spatial distribution of the optimal cropping pattern to select a suitable cultivation site for these two crops and other existing and alternative crops.
Wheat and barley are the major crops usually used in planning optimal cropping patterns, regardless of the economic issues. Considering suitable spatial distribution for wheat and barley, they should be distributed in such a way with the slightest difference compared to the current cropping pattern. On the other hand, a large area of the Lenjanat region is suitable for cultivating wheat and barley. In addition, an agricultural unit may have different capacities for other crops, so it is necessary to pay attention to the ecological potential of other crops. Wheat and barley should be cultivated in lands which are unsuitable or semi-suitable for other crops.
Accordingly, it is necessary to provide spatial zoning of existing and alternative crops in the Lenjanat area with fewer water requirements and higher economic benefits to be introduced in the optimal cropping pattern.
In this study, only agronomic-ecological criteria and needs with available data were examined due to data limitations in assessing crop suitability. Therefore, completing land suitability maps by considering more evaluation criteria such as evapotranspiration and the amount of water available is recommended.
Also, to have a "spatial distribution of the optimal cropping pattern", paying attention to the ecological potential of the lands, also considering other criteria and priorities such as natural, socio-cultural, economic and political criteria is necessary. So, we can develop a cropping pattern that provides a basis for desirable space dynamics.
Agricultural activities, as a foundation of growth and development and part of the rural development process, guarantee the economic life of many villages in the country. However, in recent years, other products' water scarcity and resource limitations have affected these activities. This issue has severely challenged the sustainability and life of rural settlements.
In this regard, organizing and developing an optimal cropping pattern is necessary to achieve the goals of sustainable agricultural and rural development in Iran. To achieve this goal, the cultivation of crops must be commensurate with the capabilities of production resources, especially water resources.
Therefore, determining the appropriate spatial distribution of agricultural lands for the cultivation of various crops is one of the primary foundations for implementing optimal cropping pattern. Accordingly, the present study seeks to identify suitable spatial zoning for wheat and barley cultivation as the main crops in agricultural lands in traditional Lenjanat regions, which are exposed to a growing water crisis.
Data and Methodology
According to the main purpose of the research, the data obtained from spatial distribution maps of current cropping patterns and spatial distribution of suitable lands for crop cultivation.
This study prepared the suitability maps of the major agricultural products at a distance of 10 km on both sides of Zayandeh Rud River in Lenjanat region using multi-criteria decision-making methods.
Thus, the agronomic-ecological needs of the two major crops in the area (wheat and barley) were determined, and a standard map for each crop was classified using ArcGIS software. Then, the digital layers were combined by allocating the weight obtained from the Analytical Hierarchy Process and the Simple Additive Weighting method. Finally, talent assessment and land zoning was performed in four categories from unsuitable to very suitable for cultivating wheat and barley crops. Using the analytical hierarchy process method and experts' opinions led to high accuracy results.
Results and Discussion
The results of the land suitability map showed that 90.6% of the agricultural lands in the study area are very suitable and relatively suitable for the cultivation of the wheat crop. The northern and eastern regions, located in Falavarjan county and the north part of Mobarakeh county, are the most suitable areas for wheat cultivation. As we move from the north and east to the west of the study area, the capability areas for wheat cultivation decrease. Limiting factors in these areas are unsuitable soil texture, low temperature, shallow soil, high slope, low rainfall and drainage.
As for barley cultivation, a large part of the area, equal to 30635.3 hectares (more than 91%), is very suitable and relatively suitable. In these areas, in the northern and eastern parts of Lenjanat, unsuitable soil texture, shallow soil, high slope and low drainage are the most critical limiting factors for barley cultivation.
A comparison of "spatial distribution of land suitability" with "spatial distribution of cropping pattern" shows that the crops in this study (wheat and barley) have been cultivated in a suitable area in terms of the ecological potential of lands.
Conclusion
The results of this evaluation can be used in the spatial distribution of the optimal cropping pattern to select a suitable cultivation site for these two crops and other existing and alternative crops.
Wheat and barley are the major crops usually used in planning optimal cropping patterns, regardless of the economic issues. Considering suitable spatial distribution for wheat and barley, they should be distributed in such a way with the slightest difference compared to the current cropping pattern. On the other hand, a large area of the Lenjanat region is suitable for cultivating wheat and barley. In addition, an agricultural unit may have different capacities for other crops, so it is necessary to pay attention to the ecological potential of other crops. Wheat and barley should be cultivated in lands which are unsuitable or semi-suitable for other crops.
Accordingly, it is necessary to provide spatial zoning of existing and alternative crops in the Lenjanat area with fewer water requirements and higher economic benefits to be introduced in the optimal cropping pattern.
In this study, only agronomic-ecological criteria and needs with available data were examined due to data limitations in assessing crop suitability. Therefore, completing land suitability maps by considering more evaluation criteria such as evapotranspiration and the amount of water available is recommended.
Also, to have a "spatial distribution of the optimal cropping pattern", paying attention to the ecological potential of the lands, also considering other criteria and priorities such as natural, socio-cultural, economic and political criteria is necessary. So, we can develop a cropping pattern that provides a basis for desirable space dynamics.
Zynab Dolatshahi, Mehry Akbari, Bohloul Alijani, Darioush Yarahmadi, Meysam Toulabi Nejad,
Volume 10, Issue 3 (9-2023)
Volume 10, Issue 3 (9-2023)
Abstract
This study was aimed at examining the types of inversion and their severity using the thermodynamic indices of the atmosphere such as SI, LI, KI and TT at Bandar Abbas Station for 2010-2020. In this study, Radioosvand data at the Bandar Abbas Station was obtained and used from the University of Wioming for the last 11 years (3.5 local) during the last 11 years (2010 to 2020). The results of the analysis showed that the average number of inversion phenomenon in Bandar Abbas was 501 cases per year, as in some days several types of inversion were observed at different altitude. Of these inversion, about 31.6 % are related to radiation temperature inversion, 4.3 % front, and another 64.1 % for subsidence inversion. Due to the air session underneath, the share of subsidence inversions is more than other types of inversion. In the meantime, the most severe inversion of subsidence was 1354 and the weakest inversions were with 29 cases and fronts. In general, the long -term average intensity coefficient of inversion of Bandar Abbas station with a coefficient of 0.062 indicates that the intensity of the city's inversion is mostly extremely severe, which can be very destructive effects both environmentally and physical health in the city's residents. Bandar Abbas follow. The correlation between the inversion elements also showed that by reducing the thickness of the inversion layer, the intensity of temperature inversion also increased.
Javad Sadidi, Hassan Ahmadi, . Ramin Rezae Shahabi, Amir Pishva, Omid Kheyri, Godratallah Nooraie,
Volume 10, Issue 3 (9-2023)
Volume 10, Issue 3 (9-2023)
Abstract
The pervasiveness of the concept of vulnerability in various dimensions has led to the emergence of the theory of vulnerability in the spatial sciences. According to the theory of vulnerability, in any given space, there is a coefficient of vulnerability, while the levels and amplitude of safety are not evenly distributed on the surface of that space. Residential use is one of the most important and main uses in the urban land use system, and safety management and attention to its defense requirements are very important due to the high population density in large cities. The present study is in the field of assessing the vulnerability of residential uses against external threats with a passive urban defense approach in District 10 of Tehran, which was conducted in the form of spatial studies and by implementing an analytical model in three steps. First, the principles and requirements of passive defense were identified and classified into three groups of structural, demographic and spatial parameters, and using the questionnaire and expert survey tools, the priorities of passive defense principles in relation to residential spaces were determined. Then, based on the network analysis process, the weight of each criterion was determined and the weight of the ANP model was applied to the spatial layers of the region in ArcGIS software. The results of the model showed that in terms of structural indicators, more than 78% of residential units in the region are in the group of structures with high vulnerability and in terms of demographic indicators, in 88% of residential units in case of external threats, the level of vulnerability is high. In terms of spatial indicators, more than 92% of residential spaces are adjacent to several incompatible uses and have the highest vulnerability. In general, the results of overlapping layers showed that more than 86% of residential units in the area are located in vulnerable zones and the vulnerability of residential units in these zones is very high.
Hossein Hataminejad, Alireza Sadeghi,
Volume 10, Issue 3 (9-2023)
Volume 10, Issue 3 (9-2023)
Abstract
Measuring urban resilience can help develop appropriate strategies and policies for cities facing unexpected shocks and their consequences. Since urban resilience is a complex concept and difficult to operationalize, developing a technique or method to actualize this concept is a major milestone in understanding the factors and interactions that help create and maintain resilience. Tehran's metropolis has a high concentration of industries, government organizations, services, and facilities, which makes its management very complicated when a natural disaster occurs. Previous conditions or inherent socio-economic characteristics show that Tehran is not immune from flood forces. In fact, it is important to measure resilience against urban disasters for areas located on rivers in Tehran due to its inherent characteristics and spatial-temporal changes of floods in the region. This research focuses on measuring the resilience of the areas located on the rivers of Tehran. The measurement approach is based on creating a composite index based on six dimensions of social, economic, institutional, infrastructure, social capital, and environmental resilience against floods. This research has been done by developing a mixed multi-criteria decision-making method. The AHP model has been used for prioritizing the selected indicators and the TOPSIS model has been used to rank the areas located on the rivers of Tehran city based on their resilience levels. The results show that region 22 is the most resilient region, while regions 4, 5, and 14 have the lowest resilience levels. The findings of this research can help urban planning organizations such as Tehran Research Planning Center to integrate disaster resilience in urban planning and change from reactive plans to preventive urban adaptive strategies such as risk-sensitive urban land use planning.
Tajdin Karami, Ali Shamaei, Fateme Mohebi,
Volume 10, Issue 4 (12-2023)
Volume 10, Issue 4 (12-2023)
Abstract
Abstract
Ecological resilience is a concept that implies the reversibility of ecological structures and functions against the shocks experienced. The northern zone of Tehran, as the most important ecological support of this city, has undergone many land-use changes in recent decades. The present study has analyzed the role of land-use change in the ecological resilience of green infrastructure (as one of the pillars of ecological structure) in District 1 of Tehran Municipality. This study is an applied one in terms of purpose and is considered a descriptive-analytical one in terms of the method used. In this study Landsat satellite data (1976-2021) were used to detect the changes of interest, and landscape metrics were used to analyze the ecological resilience conditions. Based on the results of this study period, the Number of Patches (NP) has significantly increased and the Class Area (CA) has decreased during the period covered by this study. These changes indicate the fragmentation process and loss of structural cohesion of the green patches. The measurement results for the connectivity metrics (ENN and GYRATE) also showed a small connectivity between the green patches in the area. In addition, the results for CONTAG (Contagion Landscape metrics) measure indicated that, due to low connectivity, the transmission rate is low. Therefore, it can be said that the green infrastructure of the region has lost its structural cohesion in the face of land-use change, and as a result, the expected ecological functions and services have also failed. According to the results, the green infrastructure of the study area is vulnerable to land-use changes and their ecological resilience has been significantly reduced.
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