Journal of Spatial Analysis

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Explanation of the subject: The annual drought phenomenon, by affecting economic, social and environmental issues, leads to the vulnerability of urban and rural households and the instability of their livelihoods. Yazd is one of the provinces with drought. Consecutive droughts in the province necessitate integrated management and community adaptation in times of drought.
Method: Taking into account the length of the statistical period of 20 years and to obtain the results with a high level of confidence, the main data of the census documents that have been compiled for the development of cities and villages have been used. By analyzing the main components of several factors, it was selected as the main components. By calculating the standard precipitation index in the arid region, the driest year was determined and by calculating the weighted average of their correlation index with the main components of socio-economic and ecological environment based on appropriate statistical inference. At the end of the year, the effect of drought on different dimensions was presented by step-by-step linear regression, analysis and communication between them to adapt and resilience of individuals in society.
 According to the general results, one of the most important economic and dry economic losses is the annual income of the villagers, which can be due to the decrease in the area under cultivation and production of the main agricultural products. In the social sector, people with knowledge and awareness should increase their adaptive capacity to the occurrence of drought, in order to reduce the vulnerability of social issues to the phenomenon of drought. The results show that unemployment insurance has increased following the drought. The main reason for this is the unemployment of farmers affected by drought, so changing jobs along with temporary migration or the production of handicrafts, etc. can increase the relative income of households at the time of occurrence and prevent unemployment in these conditions. Increasing unemployment will cause other social harms such as poverty, declining health, increasing disease, and reducing judicial and social security. According to the results, one of the components that has established a high standard of rainfall during the drought year is the theft of livestock, which shows a decrease in the social security of the community. People in the study community increase their adaptability to the annual drought by increasing breeding work, such as rangeland improvement, rainfall collection, biological improvement, afforestation, and irrigation reform.

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Spatial analysis of natural resilience in border areas
Case study: Zahak county
problem statement
Occurrence of natural disasters such as drought, floods and earthquakes in geographical areas, especially in rural areas, often have devastating effects. Hence, resilience has become doubly important, especially in special areas that are of special importance and sensitivity. On the other hand, border areas have a special place in policy-making and planning is important in this areas. One of these areas is Zahak county in Sistan and Balochestan province, which due to the instability and reduction of the inflow of river water resources, as well as climatic conditions and drought in combination with other factors, the traditional employment opportunities of the often rural population face serious challenges and therefore the county5b is deprived. Increasingly, the sustainability of livelihoods is facing problems. The question is, how do the spatial zones and the villages located in these zones react to the change of internal and external natural factors? Which areas and villages are more resilient?
 
Method of research
This article deals with the spatial analysis of environmental resilience in Zahak county and its purpose is to investigate the differences in resilience in different areas of the county. The general approach to the study is integrated and descriptive-analytical in terms of method. Data were collected using documentary and field methods with observation tools and questionnaires and findings of a specialized panel. The statistical population of this research is the villages of more than 20 households in Zahak city that have had governor of a rural district or village council.
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Description and interpretation of results
The villages of Zahak county are threatened by the threat of these resources due to their dependence on natural resources. The results show that none of the defined geographical areas in the rural area is sustainable and three rural areas are semi-sustainable and one rural is unstable. Assessment of sustainability in micro zones also shows that naturally unstable villages are often sparsely populated, which means that activity has not developed either. After qualitative and quantitative evaluation of various natural and environmental indicators in the county and their impact on the resilience of places and settlements in the county, settlements and places in terms of resilience were classified into three levels of high, medium and low resilience. In total, 46.7% of settlements and places are at high level of resilience, 37% at medium level and 16.3% at low level of resilience. After matching the settlements and places with the geographical area of ​​the village, three of the four geographical areas are in transition and one is unstable. This study shows that the resilience of individual villages cannot perform well when it is located in areas surrounded by villages with low resilience and the whole area becomes unstable. Thus, in special areas such as Zahak county, crisis management should focus on providing natural resources and preventing vulnerability to natural crises, and it is expected that with natural stability, housing and activity will be sustainable.
 
Key word
Resilience, special areas, Zahak county, border areas, geographic zoning
 

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 Explain the Processes of Modernization on the Spatial Mismatch in Urban Neighborhoods
(The case of, Region 4 of Tehran Municipality)
 
Modernization processes and modern urban planning policies have had significant effects and consequences on the spatial transforms of cities in the world and Iran. Among that processes, we can mention the growing gap between social groups and urban spaces based on a number of contexts and mechanisms that, from the late 1960s onwards, have been conceptualized and measured experimentally under what is called the “spatial mismatch hypothesis”. The basic methodology for estimating the state of spatial mismatch in cities or urban regions is based on the logic of “spatial segregation” between social groups and land uses simultaneously; Because based on the spatial mismatch hypothesis, it is not possible to explain the segregation mechanisms between social groups in the city without considering its relation with segregation mechanisms in urban spaces or land uses, and vice versa. Based on such methodological logic, the present paper has assessed the state of spatial (mis)match in Region 4 of Tehran Municipality. The method of data collection was in the form of libraries and data available in the Statistics Center (General Census of Population and Housing in 2016 and at the level of demographic blocks of the region), Road and Urban Development Organization, Municipality of Region 4. Variables used to analyze the spatial mismatch in the region
The level of education, employment in study abroad and inside the country, employment and unemployment status, level of housing infrastructure, type of housing ownership, changes in land use pattern and the amount of daily commutes in the study area.
 Findings obtained based on the defined variables and techniques used in Segragation Analyzer and ArcGIS software show that the state of spatial mismatch in this urban region (like many other cases in cities around the world) is high, but its intensity is higher in terms of job and literacy of social groups in relation to the state of activity and residential land uses. Relying on such findings, some strategies and policies have been proposed to reduce the state of spatial mismatch in Region 4, and to contribute to a more even and equitable distribution of development in this region and hence reduce poverty among the lower classes.
 
Keyword:
Urban modernization, spatial mismatch hypothesis, socio-spatial segregation, Region 4 of Tehran Municipality
 

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Regional leveling of drought vulnerability in Golestan province
Narges Kefayati*¹-  Khalil Ghorbani²- Gholamhossein Abdollahzadeh ³-
 
1- PhD student of irrigation and drainage, Department of Water Engineering, College  Of Water   Engineering, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources,Gorgan,Iran. (Corresponding Author)*
2- Associated Professor, Department of Water Engineering, College  Of Water   Engineering, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resourcesm, Gorgan, Iran.
3- Associated Professor, Department of Agricultural Promotion and Training, Faculty of Agricultural Management, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources
 
Abstract
Drought is one of the natural phenomena that causes a lot of damage to human life and natural ecosystems. In general, drought is a lack of rainfall compared to normal or what is expected, when it is longer than a season or a period of time and is insufficient to meet the needs. Drought causes damage to the agricultural sector. The vulnerability of the agricultural sector in each region depends on three factors: the degree of drought exposure, the degree of sensitivity to drought and the capacity to adapt to drought. A review of previous studies indicates the diversity of indicators and methods used to assess vulnerability, which indicates the importance of the issue. Institutions responsible for agricultural management can only manage drought properly if they have the appropriate tools to measure the vulnerability of the agricultural sector to drought. Therefore, the first step in drought studies is to identify vulnerable areas and assess the vulnerability of areas. Vulnerability measurement in geographical dimensions and measurement of indicators by main vulnerability components have received less attention. Based on this, the present study has investigated drought vulnerability in Golestan by scientific method and by combining the three mentioned components and has compared the exposure situation, sensitivity level and level of drought adaptation capacity among the cities of Golestan province. Golestan province as one of the important agricultural hubs is highly dependent on the amount of annual rainfall. Due to fluctuations in rainfall and drought in some parts of the province, there have been 4 outbreaks and as a result, 7-12 and 10 days of drought have occurred, which has caused severe damage to the livelihood of farming families. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to compare drought vulnerability among cities in Golestan province by three components (exposure, sensitivity and adaptation). First, by reviewing the sources, the effective indicators on drought vulnerability are identified separately by the three components and judged by experts (faculty members of water engineering, agriculture and plant breeding, agricultural extension and education, and agricultural economics and experts of water engineers). 55 appropriate indicators in three main dimensions of vulnerability, namely: a) exposure (14 indicators), b) sensitivity (26 indicators) and c) compatibility (17 indicators) were developed and data related to the indicators were collected. The weights of the indices were extracted by Shannon entropy model and by the TOPSIS method the combined index was compiled separately into three vulnerability components. The final result of the combined index was combined with the GIS layers of the cities of Golestan province, and the level of vulnerability of the cities was determined separately for the desired components. The results showed that in terms of exposure to Bandar-e-Gaz, Bandar-e-Turkmen and Aq Qala are in the first to third ranks, respectively, and are exposed to drought. Azadshahr, Galikesh and Bandar-e-Turkmen counties are in the first to third ranks with the highest sensitivity to drought, respectively. The cities of Gomishan, Galikesh and Maravah Tappeh are the most adapted to drought, respectively. Finally, the results of calculating the total vulnerability index showed that the cities of Marwah Tappeh and Bandar-e-Turkmen are the most vulnerable areas to drought in Golestan province. The findings of this study showed that rainy areas can be more exposed to drought at the same time than other areas and there is no direct relationship between rainfall and drought exposure. This confirms the findings of other studies such as Kramker et al. And O'Brien et al. On the other hand, the findings of this study showed that there is no direct relationship between rainfall and vulnerability to drought and the most  rainy areas of a region at the same time can be the most vulnerable to drought. This is in line with the findings of Tanzler et al. And Salvati et al. On the relationship between rainfall and drought vulnerability. Due to the fact that the rainy areas of this province are more exposed to drought than other areas and farmers in these areas have shown a higher degree of sensitivity to drought and are more vulnerable to drought than other areas, it is recommended Measures should be taken to reduce the sensitivity and increase the adaptation capacity of farmers in these areas.
 
Keywords: Drought, Vulnerability, Exposure, Sensitivity, Compatibility, Regional Leveling

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Zoning map Vulnerability of Flood Spreading areas
(Case study: Musian Flood spreading station in Ilam province)
 
 
 
Introduction
One of the flood plain hazards is a change in the pattern of surface flows due to natural factors or human activities. Changes in the stream pattern are the changes that occur due to the surface stream patterns in terms of the shape of the drains, drainage form and quantitative morphological indices of the basin. These changes ,by formation of flood, submersibility, erosion, longitudinal and transverse displacements of rivers and streams, environmental degradation, etc., have a great deal of risk and harm to residents of the land adjacent to the watersheds, including the demolition of residential buildings,  valuable agriculture lands, facilities, river structures, buildings and relation routes, etc. There are several watersheds in the Musian Plain Basin that regularly change the direction of surface streams and, while displacing large volumes of sediments of erosion-sensitive structures, degrades crops, rural dwellings, connection paths, facilities, Irrigation canals obstruction, water supply and a lot of financial and physical damage to the residents of the region. Therefore, in order to solve these problems, in 1997, the Dehloran flood spreading plan was carried out at a level of 5000 hectares from the Basin of Musian Plain. Although some of the changes in the dynamics of the region, such as stream pattern, flood control, supllying groundwater aquifers, etc., have been caused by the implementation of this plan, but the problem of the concentration of watersheds behind the embankments composed of sensitive formations ,and the release of these areas will have many financial and even physical losses. Therefore, with the implementation of this research, it is attempted to identify the domain and risks that threaten the lowlands and to identify the appropriate measures to prevent them from happening with the zoning and inspection of the vulnerable areas of the Musain Plain.
 
 
Methodology
This study was conducted in five stages to prepare a vulnerability map of the flood spreading area of ​​Mosian plain. First, the implementation phases of the flood distribution plan were separated. In the second stage, information layers of effective factors in changing the flow pattern and concentration of surface currents behind the flood spreading structures were prepared. These layers included elevation, slope, and direction classes, which were prepared based on the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) extracted from the 1: 50,000 topographic maps of the Armed Forces Geographical Organization, as well as the layers of geological formations and land use changes. The lands were prepared based on the maps of the Geological Survey of Iran and the processing of Landsat satellite images of eight OLI sensors in 2013, respectively, by the method of determining educational samples. In the third stage, each class of effective factors in changing the flow pattern (mentioned layers) was given a score based on the range of zero to 10. The basis of the scores of the classes of each factor was according to the number of classes and the average of the total classes of that factor. The fourth stage in the GIS environment was created by combining the weight layers created, the vulnerability layer of the study area (quantitative map of vulnerability areas) of the basin. Then, by analyzing the vulnerability layer (filtering), the pixels and small units were removed or merged into larger units. The last (fifth) step was to classify the quantitative layer and then extract the qualitative map of the vulnerability zoning according to the range of scores based on the five very low, low, medium, severe and very severe classes. A summary of the research steps is shown in the form of a diagram.
 
Results and Discussion
The results showed that the most important threat and danger factor is the concentration of waterways behind erosion-sensitive embankments. Also, the study area in terms of vulnerability includes three classes with medium risk, high and very high and covers 16, 62 and 22% of the area, respectively. Flood and upland Spreading areas, risk areas and lowland lands are the most vulnerable parts of the basin in terms of floods and sedimentary deposits.
 
Conclusion
Based on the results obtained by combining the information layersof the factors influencing the stream pattern change, the zoning map of vulnerable areas of the region was created in 5 classes. Except for very few and very small classes that are not present in the region, there are other cases at the basin level:
Medium class:Includes about 16% of the basin. The existing watersheds in this part are ranked 1th class, and some of them are entering the rivers of Dojraj and Chiqab in the eastern and western parts. The formations of this part are often Bakhtyari and limitedly Aghajari. The floors have a height of 100 to 400 meters and the gradient is from 0-2 percent to 20 percent.
Medium class: About 62% of the basin level. The watersheds that flow in this section are in 1to 5 class. The formations of this part are often alluvial and bakhtiari of lahbori sections. It has a height of less than 100 meters to 300 meters and a gradient of 2-0 percent to 20 percent.
very intense: it covers about 22% of the basin's surface. The existing watersheds are of of class 2 and 3. The formations of this part are often alluvial and bakhtiari of lahbori sections. They have height classes of 100 to 300 meters and the gradient is 5-2 percent and is limited to 5 to 10 percent in the slopes.
 
Keywords: Vulnerability, Aquifer, zoning, Satellite imagery, Environmental hazards, Musian

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River channel changes, bank erosion and sedimentation are the natural processes of the alluvial rivers that destroy the agricultural land and damage to human installations around the river. In the present study, the CAESAR model was used to assess the changes of the Kaleibar Chai River in order to measure the variation of 3 km of its main channel.CAESAR is a cellular automata model for river system evolution. CAESAR  is a cellular model  that uses a regular mesh of grid cells to represent the river catchment studied. Every cell has properties of elevation, water discharge and depth, vegetation cover, depth to bedrock and grain  size.  It  is  based  upon  the  cellular  automaton  concept,  whereby  the repeated  iteration of a series of  rules on each of  these cells determines  the behaviour of the whole system. CAESAR has a set of rules for a hydrological model, hydraulic model (flow routing), fluvial erosion and deposition and slope erosion  and  deposition.  For  every  model  iteration,  cell  properties  (e.g. elevation) are updated according to the rules, and the interaction between an individual cell and its neighbours. For example, the amount of fluvial erosion in a cell may depend upon the depth of water in the cell and the slope between that cell and its neighbours.
For modeling, the input data such as topography (DEM), daily discharge (year 2012) and sediment grain size were prepared and then channel modifications were simulated. Channel changes were identified before and after the simulation by plotting profiles of each cross-sections and were analyzed sensitive to erosion and sedimentation.Six cross-sections were selected before and after simulation. Results showed that the channel geometry has changed. The width and depth and form of the channel have changed. And only the mean depth of the channels was changed in sections 1, 2, 6 and 4. The erosion was dominated in the cross- sections 1, 2, and 3 (the initial part of the main channel). Then the sedimentation was dominated in the cross- sections 4, 5 and 6.


 

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One of the causes of environmental hazards is the change in the pattern of surface water flow in floodplains following the construction of flood Spreading networks. The purpose of this study is to prepare a zoning map of vulnerable areas of the flood Spreading station of Musian plain  in Ilam province after the implementation of the aquifer project in this plain. To prepare this map, five factors influencing the change in flow pattern including elevation, slope, flow direction, geological formations, and landuse change were examined. Then, in the GIS environment, each class of the mentioned factors was given a score of zero to 10 based on the range and the corresponding weight layers were created. Then, by combining the created weight layers, the vulnerability zoning map of the area was created based on 5 classes: very low, low, medium, high and very high. The results showed that the most important threat and danger factor is the concentration of waterways behind erosion-sensitive embankments. Also, the study area in terms of vulnerability includes three classes with medium risk, high and very high and covers 16, 62 and 22% of the area, respectively. Flood and upland Spreading areas, risk areas and lowland lands are the most vulnerable parts of the basin in terms of floods and sedimentary deposits.

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Air pollution, as one of the most important environmental hazards in urban areas, is closely related to weather conditions. Today, pollution in metropolitan areas has become an important issue that requires the study and presentation of practical solutions to improve living conditions in this area. Therefore, understanding the relationship between synoptic systems and air pollutants helps a lot in how to solve environmental problems and future planning. Therefore, in this study, compression algorithms of carbon monoxide emission and transfer from domestic and foreign sources were analyzed. For this purpose, GEOS-5 / GMAO / NASA satellite images were used. The results showed that the highest amount of pollution from the seasonal point of view is related to the cold and early morning seasons and the lowest is related to the early afternoon and hot season of the year. And Khuzestan are densely populated carbon monoxide cores. Low pressures of the eastern Mediterranean play an important role in reducing pollutants in the southwest of the country and in the south of the country, under the influence of atmospheric currents from the topographic cut of Bandar Abbas, air streams polluted with carbon monoxide are able to penetrate into the interior to the southern half of Kerman. Increased by low pressure systems in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Zagros Mountains also play an important role in preventing the entry of pollutants produced by western neighbors into Iran. In summer, Iran is polluted by carbon monoxide carriers by monsoon currents from central and southern Africa to Iran and has caused a lot of pollution

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Investigation of Temperature and Precipitation Changes in the Seymarreh Basin by Using CMIP5 Series Climate Models
 
Abstract
Panel reports on climate change suggest that climate change around the world is most likely due to human factors. Temperature and precipitation are two important parameters in the climate of a region whose variations and fluctuations affect different areas such as agriculture, energy, tourism and so on. Seymareh basin is one of the most significant sub-basins of Karkheh. The purpose of this study is to predict the impact of climate change on precipitation and temperature of the Seymareh Basin in 2021-2040 period. These effects were analyzed at selected stations with uncertainties related to atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) of CMIP5 models under two scenarios of RCP45 and RCP85 through LARS-WG statistical model. Then the uncertainties of the models and scenarios were investigated by comparing the monthly outputs of the models by the coefficients of determination coefficient (R²) in the forthcoming period (2021-2040) with the base period (1980–2010). The root mean square error (RMSE) calculations presented the best model and scenarios for generating future temperature and precipitation data.            
The Seymareh catchment is the largest and the main Karkheh sub-basin that covers parts of Kermanshah, Lorestan and Ilam provinces. The length of the largest river at the basin level to the site of the Seymareh Reservoir Dam is approximately 475 km, and the area of the basin is 26,700 km². Geographic coordinates of the basin are from 33° 16 ́ 03 ̋to 34°59 ́ 29 ̋north latitudes and 46°6 ́9 ̋to ̋ 5 ́ 0 ° 49 Eastern longitudes, minimum basin height 698 m at the dam outlet and its maximum height 3,638 m. It is on the western highlands of Borujerd.
The information used in this study was obtained from the Meteorological Organization of the country. For this study, three synoptic stations of Kermanshah, Hamadan and Khorramabad, which had the highest statistical records and had appropriate distribution at basin level, were used. These data included daily and monthly temperature and precipitation information, and sunshine hours.
The LARS-WG fine-scale exponential model was proposed by Rasko et al., Semnoff and Barrow (1981). We used daily data at stations under current and future weather conditions. In order to select the best GCM model from the models mentioned above, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation and sunshine data were entered daily in the base period (1980–2010) and data were generated for five models under two scenarios of RCP45 and RCP85 for the period 2040–2021. The data were generated in 100 random series and the mean of required variables (minimum temperature, maximum temperature and rainfall) were extracted monthly in the period 2021-2040. Then, root mean square error (RMSE) and determination coefficient (R²) were used to evaluate the performance of the models and compare the results.
To ensure the models' ability to generate data in the coming period, computational data from the model and observational data at the stations under study should have been compared. The capability of the LARS-WG model in modeling the minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and radiation at the stations under study was completely consistent with the observed data. The model's ability to exemplify rainfall was also acceptable, however the highest modeling error was related to March rainfall.
By comparing the observed and produced data including monthly average precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures through five mentioned models with their indices, the best model and scenario for future fabrication were determined. The results of this comparison showed that among the available models, HADGEM2-ES model under RCP 4.5 scenario had the best result for precipitation and HADGEM2-ES under RCP 8.5 scenario predicted the best result for maximum temperature. Determining the best model, precipitation data, minimum temperature and maximum temperature produced in the selected models and scenarios were analyzed to investigate the climate change temperature and precipitation for the future period.
The results of this study indicated that due to the wide range of output variations of different models and scenarios, by not taking into account the uncertainties of the models and scenarios can have a great impact on the results of the studies. It was also found in this study that the LARS-WG exponential model was capable of modeling precipitation data and baseline temperature in the study area, so that the radiation data, minimum and maximum temperatures were completely consistent with the data.
The observations are consistent and the models' ability to predict rainfall is very good and acceptable manner. In investigating the uncertainties caused by atmospheric general circulation models and existing scenarios, the best model to predict precipitation in the study area is HADGEM2-ES model under RCP 8.5 scenario, the best model for temperature estimation model HADGEM2-ES under RCP scenario No. 4.5.
The overall results of this study revealed that the average precipitation in the basin will decrease by 4.5% on average, while the minimum temperature will be 1.5° C and the maximum temperature will be 2.17° C. The highest increase will be due to the warmer months of the year. Notable are the disruptions of rainfall distribution and the high temperatures will have significantly negative consequences than rainfall reduction.
 

• : Climate Change, Climate Scenarios, Uncertainty, LARS-WG, Seymareh.

 
 

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Introduction: Assessing the vulnerability and pollution of the aquifer is necessary for the management, development and allocation of land use, quality monitoring, prevention and protection of groundwater pollution. The purpose of this research is to identify and analyze the qualitative vulnerability of the Mashhad plain aquifer in order to monitor and manage underground water resources and prevent its future pollution.
Methodology: Mashhad plain is located in the northeast of Iran between Binaloud and Hezarmasjed mountains and in the watershed of the Kasfroud river, and its area is 2527 square kilometers. In this research, the vulnerability of the Mashhad Plain aquifer was evaluated with DRASTIC and SI models, and ArcGIS was used to analyze the parameters and prepare the vulnerability map. DRASTIC model is one of the overlap and index methods. In this method, the seven measurable parameters for the hydrogeological system include the depth of the groundwater level(D), net recharge(R), aquifer environment(A), soil environment(S), topography(T), Impact of the unsaturated Zone(I) and hydraulic conductivity(C) is used. The ratings for the sub-layers of each criterion vary from one to ten depending on their impact on the vulnerability potential. In SI method, five parameters of groundwater depth(D), net recharge (R), aquifer lithology(A), topography(T) and landuse(LU) are used for aquifer vulnerability. After preparing the SI model layers and weighting each of the layer classes using the functions available in the ArcGIS, the sensitivity index is obtained from the weighted sum of the mentioned parameters.
Conclusion: Study area is divided into four zones with very low vulnerability(21.85%), low(32.09%), medium to low(31.05%) and medium to high vulnerability(14.59%). Also, based on the results of the SI model, the study area is divided into five areas with very low vulnerability(0.4%), low(24.63%), medium to low(23.98%), medium to high(18.71%) and high vulnerability(32.25%). In general, the vulnerability of the aquifer increases from the southeast to the northwest.For verification, statistical method and calculation of correlation coefficient between vulnerability maps and TDS layer was used in TerrSet software and the results showed that both DRASTIC and SI models have high accuracy in zoning the vulnerability of Mashhad plain aquifer, so that the correlation coefficient of vulnerability maps with index The quality of TDS in Drastic model is (0.996) and in SI model (0.995); Therefore, the results of the following research can be used in environmental assessments and analysis of various pollutions and can be used as a basis for management decisions.

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Dust storms affect different regions of the globe countries and Iran. The dust storm events were considered as one of the climatic components in arid and semi-arid regions and it is called one of the most important environmental problems of these regions. Therefore, in this research, the activity class of sand dunes were investigated based on the Lancaster index in Iranshahr city in Sistan and Baluchistan province. The aim of this study is to investigate the climatic different conditions on the mobility of sand dunes in Iranshahr city. Meteorological data for synoptic station of Iranshahr were collected from the Iranian Meteorological Organization for 15 years (2003 to 2018). After examining the wind speed velocity in Iranshahr, and extracting the seasonal and annual Wind rose diagrams, Dust Storm Index (DSI) was calculated.  Finally, the effects of possible changes in climatic elements on the mobility of sand dunes were predicted. The results showed a significant correlation between the Lancaster index and the amount of annual rainfall, wind and drought index. The results of the sensitivity analysis also showed that if the frequency of erosive winds and potential evaporation and transpiration increases to 30%, the activity of sand dunes in Iranshahr station increases by 25 and 23%, respectively, on the other hand, with a 30% increase in rainfall, the activity of sand dunes decreases by 30%.
 

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Abastract
Introduction
Road accidents is the outcome of driver behavior, road condition, vehicle status, and environmental factors. Therefore, identification and assessment of effective parameters on road accidents can be considered as an appropriate way to reduce the accident events, driving violations and increase the road safety. Determining the effects of meteorological factors on the road accident events has gained more attention in recent years.
  The The main objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between the number of road accidents and the meteorological variables in the intercity road of Grmi-Ardabil in the Barzand route.
Methodology:
In this regard, the effects of climatic factors (including rainfall amount, the minimum absolute temperature, and the number of frost days) on the frequency of perilous events were analyzed. The data of accident events (in recent 4 years) were obtained from the trooper department of Ardabil Province along with the meteorological parameters of Germi station through a 11-year period. The statistical tests were performed using R programming software through statistical analysis.
Findings and Discussion:
The results showed that the majority of accidents were occurred in winter season which is in consistent with the frequency of frost days and also corresponded to the absolute minimum temperature. According to the results, the highest significant positive correlation at (R²= 0.43) was observed between the number of injured people and frost days. In addition, the relationship between the absolute minimum temperature and the number of were identified as significant negative correlation.
Conclusion:
As a concluding remark, the poor road conditions caused by climate element can be considered increasing the frequency of accident events. Accordingly, the proper strategies related to behavior change could be
considered in setting the rules and regulations to reduce the accidents and the number of injuries.

Keywords: Climatic hazards, Correlation analysis, Frost days, Minimum absolute temperature, Germi-Ardabil road


 

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Introduction
Land use reflects the interactive characteristics of humans and the environment and describes how human exploitation works for one or more targets on the ground. Land use is usually defined on the basis of human use of the land, with an emphasis on the functional role of land in economic activities. Land use, which is associated with human activity, is undergoing change over time. Land use information and land cover are important for activities such as mapping and land management. Over time, land cover patterns and, consequently, land use change, and the human factor can play a major role in this process. Today, satellite-based measurements with geographic information systems are increasingly being used to identify and analyze land-use change and land cover. With regard to the problems of changes and transformations in the studied area, remote sensing can allow managers to categorize images and evaluate land use changes, in addition to saving time and costs, which allows planners to make plans based on changes, more resources are lost. To be prevented.

Materials & Methods
In order to classify and detect the marginal land of the river, TM and OLI image images were selected for a specific month (August, August) for the years 1987 and 2017. The purpose of this study was to investigate the changes occurring in the studied area with an emphasis on agricultural lands. To do this, the images before processing in the ENVI software took radiometric, atmospheric and geometric corrections on them. After that, the main components of the river route were extracted. Five basic algorithms were used to classify the base pixel, but eCognition software was used to classify the object. Supervised classification identifies homogeneous regions with examples of land use and land cover, in which pixels are assigned in known information classes. Education is a process that determines the criteria for these patterns. Learning output is a set of spectral signatures of proposed classes. The first step in object-oriented classification is the segmentation of the image and the creation of distinct objects, consisting of homogeneous pixels. The main purpose of image segmentation is to combine pixels or small objects to create large image objects based on the spectral and spatial characteristics of the image. In order to evaluate the accuracy and compare the resulting maps, the overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient are used. When the sampling of pixels is done as a spectral or informational class pattern, the evaluation of the spectral reflection of classes and their resolution can also be done. An algorithm with the highest accuracy and accuracy will be the basis for the detection. Detection of changes, which leads to a two-way matrix and shows variations of the main types of land use in the study area, was carried out in this study. Pixel-based cross-tabulation analysis on pixels facilitates the determination of the conversion value from a specific user class to another user category and areas associated with these changes over the given time period.

Results & Discussion
The results showed that the object-oriented method is more accurate than the base pixel algorithms for providing user-defined maps. The amount of accuracy in the method based on object-oriented classification depends largely on choosing the appropriate parameters for classification, defining the rules, and applying the appropriate algorithm to obtain the degree of membership. The Kappa coefficient for each image is approximately 0.90. So these maps are the basis for the discovery of change. According to the results, the agricultural and residential lands have been increased and this increase has been accompanied by a decrease in rangelands. A general overview of this 30-year period shows that the arable and dry farming, respectively, increased by 2418.79 and 719.61 hectares and the rangelands had a decrease of 2848.86 hectares. However, the residential class and human effects show an increase of 428.88 hectares or a growth of 178.87%, which indicates the importance of agriculture in the studied area.

Conclusion
Identifying and discovering land cover changes can help planners and planners identify effective factors in land use change and land cover, and have a useful planning to control them. For this reason, maps are needed with precision and speed, and object-oriented processing methods make this possible with very high precision. The results of this study, in addition to proving the precision and efficiency of object-oriented processing in land cover estimation, between 1987 and 2017, have witnessed a decrease in the area of rangeland lands and, on the other hand, agricultural and residential lands, which is indicative of the overall trend Destruction in the area through the replacement of pastures by other uses such as rainfed farming.

Keywords: Land Use, Gamasiab, Object Oriented, Pixel Base, Kappa Coefficient
 

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Introduction
Geographical situation of Iran is a place for interacting many physical and human processes which lead to specific precipitation climatology in the country. The month to month variation of precipitation is one of  the features which the precipitation climatology may reflect due to tempo - spatial characteristics. In fact, monthly distribution of precipitation is one of precipitation normal features building up the climate structure. In order to recognize this fundamental characteristic three following questions have been raised:
1) Have the month to month distribution of precipitation changed over recent four decades?
2) How is the pattern of relationship of month to month distribution of precipitation and spatio - topographical variables?
3) Is it possible to find a spatial pattern for decadal changes of precipitation of month to month distribution?

Data and Methods
In order to find a responses for the abovementioned questions the distribution of month to month precipitation and its decadal changes was considered by adopting coefficients of variations (CV) for 46 years (1970-2016)  and using the third version of Asfazari dataset. The relationship of precipitation data and spatio-topographical variables calculated based on regression techniques. Moreover, the spatial pattern considered by using cluster analysis.  The CV calculated as follow:

here ،،  are ith raw's and jth column's CV, standard deviation, and monthly mean, respectively.
CV and its relationships with spatio-topographical variables were calculated in two temporal scale, for whole the under investigation period (1970-2016) and in decadal period for four decades (1977-1986, 1987-1996, 1997-2006, 2007-2016).
Discussion
 The results of current study proved that the month to month different in precipitation amounts have had spatial variations, whilst the temporal trends is not statistically significant. In addition, the minimum, maximum, and consequently, the range of values also the averages have not experienced significantly changes. However, the region experiencing the same values of precipitation illustrated oscillatory behavior. Accordingly, the decadal variations have happened in different areas. Although the there have been statistically significant relationships between monthly CV and spatio - topographical factors, the correlations were low. Based on cluster analysis, we found 5 regions according to CV and its anomalies in compares with normal CV for all under investigation period. These regions generally follow the latitudes from 32 N toward northern latitudes, whilst the region in the south of 32 N generally follow the longitude patterns.
Results
Precipitation is known a chiastic and complicated climate element. One of chiastic behaviors which precipitation shows in its different time - scale behavior is its month to month distribution among a given year. In current research the decadal variation of  above-mentioned behavior among recent four decades and the variation of its relationships and the spatio - topographical features , as parts of climate structure of the country, have investigated in details. 
Our finding illustrated that the month to month different in precipitation amounts have had tempo - spatial variations, whilst the temporal long - term trends is not statistically significant. Moreover, the values of minimum, maximum, and consequently, the range of month to month CV also the decadal averages have not experienced significantly changes over four under study decades. However, the region experiencing the same values of precipitation depicted oscillatory behavior. consequently, the decadal variations have happened in different areas. Although there have been statistically significant relationships between monthly CV and spatio - topographical variables, the correlations were not considerably high. Based on cluster analysis technique, we found 5 regions according to CV and its anomalies in compares to normal CV for all under study decades. These regions generally follow the latitudes from 32 N toward northern latitudes, whilst the region in the south of 32 N generally follow the longitude patterns.

KeyWords: Iran precipitation, Month to month changes in precipitation, Inter annual variation of precipitation, Precipitation anomaly, Spatial analysis of precipitation

 

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Streambank erosion hazard analysis by BEHI method, case study: Sajadroud stream, Mazandaran province
Extended Abstract
Introduction
River bank erosion is a complex natural process and plays an important role in the dynamic equilibrium of the river. The amount of river bank erosion affects the river plan, cross section and dimensions of the river and is the main factor controlling channel migration and the evolution of the river planform. This research was conducted with two main objectives, which are: 1. River bank erosion susceptibility analysis in incised rivers in mountainous areas, 2. Comparison of river bank erodibility with two methods original BEHI and modified BEHI.
Method
In this study, Bank Erosion Hazard Index (BEHI) and the modified BEHI method along a part of Sajadrood Stream in Mazandaran province have been investigated. The original BEHI (Rosgen, 1996, 2001) evaluates the river bank erosion field measurements. In this method, several parameters are measured, including bank height, Bankfull height, bank angle, root depth, root density, surface protection, bank material structure and stratification. From this parameters, the bank angle and height, root depth can be measured, but indicators such as plant root density and surface protection are visually estimated as a percentage. The score of each index varies from 1 to 10. The total scores of all indicators are classified into 6 groups: very low, low, medium, high, very high and extreme.
Newton and Drenten (2015) Based on the modified BEHI proposed a protocol for estimating the river bank erosion. In this protocol, the lengths of similar riverbanks are first defined as a uniform section of bank. These uniform sections can be identified due to differences in bank slope, differences in bank material and a break in vegetation. The characteristics of uniform sections are then evaluated in a pre-screening questionnaire consisting of six questions. If the answer to two or more questions is "yes", there is a high probability of erosion and the BEHI evaluation will be performed. Otherwise, the measurement will not be taken because the erosion is low or very low.
Result and discussion
The study area was divided into four reaches and 36 sites were surveyed. These river reaches have a deep bed (incised), high slope, low sinuosity, low width to depth ratio and predominant cobble sediments in the bed. They are in type A3 according to the Rosgen River classification. The height of the banks of the stream is high and its average is 2.6 meters with a minimum and a maximum of 0.4 to 9.7 meters. The average height of bankfull was 0.44 meters and varied from 0.15 to 0.85 meters. Hence, the ratio of bank height to bankfull height has been high. The root depth of plants was low and their average was 0.34 meters. Root density of plants was also low and averaged 5.7% The stream bank angle is measured from 31 to 90 degrees and an average of 51degree. The percentage of surface protection varied between 25 and 65% and averaged 42%. From a total of 36 sites, 8% are in the medium group, 39% in the high erosion category, 45% in the very high erosion group and 8% in the extreme erosion category.
Among the various variables, the β coefficients of the surface protection index and the ratio of bank height to bankfull height were -0.62 and 0.51, respectively. To evaluate the modified BEHI method, all reaches were first examined according to the pre-screening table and more than two "yes" answers were confirmed for each reach. In the modified BEHI method, 26 out of 36 sites were in the erosion group. But in the original BEHI method, 16 sites are in a very high class. The total score of the studied sites was evaluated by two BEHI methods with Pearson correlation coefficients, which obtained a coefficient of 0.21 and shows a relatively low correlation.
Conclusion
Sajadrood stream has high and steep banks due to the incision created in the channel bed. The deposition of large boulders at the toe of the streambank has caused its protection and the flood currents of bankfull are not able to carry this piece of rock. Under these conditions, calculating the ratio of bank height to bankfull height cannot indicate the erodibility of the streambank in the bankfull stage. Nevertheless, the erodible potential of the bank for larger flood currents is confirmed. Comparison of the original BEHI with the modified BEHI showed that the modified method has an overestimate than the original BEHI.

Key word: river bank erosion, BEHI, Sajadroud, Mazandaran
 

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 Introduction
Old trees are important and key elements of forest sites and are of great value in terms of forest management, reforestation, silviculture and ecology. Although old trees constitute a small percentage of forest trees, they account for a large share of forest carbon reserve and play a vital role in carbon storage. Understanding the how geographical and site distribution of these trees across the forest is essential to obtain information for forest restoration management. Therefore, this study was carried out to investigate the geographical and site characteristics of old trees of Wing nut, Ash, Hackberry, Sycamore, Elm, Olive, Cypress and Fig in Ilam province.
 
Materials and methods
After querying the villagers and local people and conducting numerous forest surveys, the old trees were identified and selected on the basis of the diameter of the breast. Then their geographical characteristics including city, district, village, geographical coordinates and site conditions including slope, aspect, altitude, soil depth, climate and proximity to water source were measured or recorded.

Results and discussion
The results showed that in terms of geographically distribution, the identified old trees have located in Ilam, Mehran, Malekshahi, Badreh and Dehloran cities. Topographically, the old trees of Wing nut, Elm, Ash and Fig were located in the 0-10% slope class, Hackberry and sycamore in the 0-10% and 10-30% slope classes, olive in the 10-30% slope class and Cypress in the 40-70% slope class. The old trees of Wing nut, elm, Ash and Hackberry were located in the north aspect, fig, sycamore and Cypress in the south aspect and olive in the west and south aspects. The old trees of Wing nut, elm, Ash, Hackberry, Sycamore and Cypress were dispersed at altitude class of 1100–1250 m and olive and fig old trees were at altitude class of 1250–1400 m above sea level. Climatically, the old trees of Wing nut, elm, Ash and Hackberry were located in the very cold Mediterranean climate, Cypress trees and some sycamore trees in the cold Mediterranean climate, and fig, olive and some plantain trees were in the semiarid cold climate. In terms of access to water resources, old trees of Wing nut, elm, Ash, Sycamore, Hackberry and Fig were located on the bed or margin of river, old Cypress trees had no access to water resources and some olive trees were close to water resources. In terms of soil subsidence, old trees of Wing nut, elm, Hackberry, olive, and fig were mostly in soils with medium depths. Old ash and sycamore trees were present in shallow to medium depths and old cypress trees were present in shallower soils. Although the identified old trees were present in limited sites, their long-term and sustained presence in these sites indicates that sites conditions are favorable for their survival.

Conclusion
Therefore, it can be concluded that the presence of low slopes, suitable soil bed and access to water resources were desirable characteristics for stability and survival of the studied old trees in these sites. Due to the above-mentioned characteristics, ecologically similar sites can be found in the forests of the province and can be restored by seed of old and resistant trees.
Keywords: Site, Topography, Climate, Geography, Old trees, Ilam

 

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Tehran metropolitan with its large population, daily migrant workforce and many students, needs to planning and designing watch/warning system to reduce the climatic problems for human health.for this purpose, we need to study the climate accurately and Since the factors affecting the climate of warm and cold periods in Iran are different, in this study , the meteorological variables of Tehran warm period (May to September 2002) turned into 4 components in Temporal Synoptic Index (TSI) using PCA Method and using P-Array and Varimax rotation.By the scores of components for each day, the clustering method (in ward method) were used and, the warm days of the year was divided into two cluster named favorable and oppressive airmasses. The average maximum air temperature that is more effective in mortality, was 36.13 ° C. Days with temperatures above  34 ° C, less pressure, mild winds , dryness and more sunshine resulted in more adverse weather conditions, which resulted in a 34% increasing in mortality compare with favorable weather. The total number of deaths from cardiovascular disease during the study period was 154046 that about  67%of deaths have been simultaneous with oppressive airmass.The epidemiological study of mortality also confirms the results of previous research in this area and shows that the incidence of mortality is higher in older people as well as in men. It is clear that not all mortality can be attributed to the effects of climate, but results show that change in climatic conditions will affect on mortality and also for study the effect of climatic hazards on human health, it is better that we study the effect of all variables together on humans.

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Dust fall means the dust that in the air fall down on the ground (Hai et al, 2008). it is important to study the extent of heavy metal contamination of dust fall due to their threats that could affect human health. Due to the fact that the metropolis of Tehran has a population of over eight million people and One of the major cities in the world is currently facing a severe air pollution problem. The purpose of the present study was to determine  the level of pollution and health risk of heavy metals such as Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb in the dust falling of Tehran city. the Dust fallout samples were collected using Marble Dust Collector (MDCO) from 28 different locations across Tehran during the statistical period (2018/03/21- 2018/06/21). We used XRF analysis To identify and determine the concentration of heavy metals (Cd,Cr,Cu,Ni,Pb,Fe) in the collected dust. we used to spatial analysis to  determine Dispersion of pollution levels and health risk in different Zone of Tehran  city. In order to determine the level of pollution and Health Risk Assessment we used the pollution index (PI), integrated pollution index (IPI), Non-Carcinogenic Risk and Carcinogenic Risk. Based on the results of the calculations performed in the statistical period studied, the values of pollution index (PI) and integrated pollution index (IPI) are Pb> Cd> Cu> Cr> Ni, respectively. Accordingly, the regional trend of pollution from west to east is increasing. Therefore, Tehran's pollution index is high level of pollution in the most zone and and extremely high level of pollution in the eastern zone, which is a more worrying situation. Probably one of the reasons is the western winds, which are faster in the west than in the east. Also, Tehran's topographic pattern plays a role in this issue. Health risk assessment (HQ, HI, CR) showed that the contamination of the heavy elements studied was lower than the acceptable threshold for carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks. Therefore, it is not dangerous in terms of carcinogenicity. The risk of carcinogenicity and non-carcinogenicity in children and adults is higher in the southern and eastern zone of Tehran. Probably one of the reasons is the establishment of metal industries, cement production, sand mines and combustion processes in the south and west of Tehran metropolis.