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Ebrahim Moghimi, Alireza Salehipour Milani, Mehdi Chakeri, Mostafa Moghimi,
Volume 1, Issue 2 (7-2014)

In the Tsunami of Dec. 26, 2004, although there was a large distance between the earthquake center of Indian Ocean and coastal cities of Iran, the Tsunami waves brought some damages in Chabahar coast. This means that if the earthquake center was closer to Iran, Iran’s coastal regions would have confronted serious danger... In the present study, we used ComMIT software (Community Model Interface for Tsunami) as a research tool, Inundation modeling was done for the Jask coastal area in order to assess the potential and find out the impact of tsunami from any future Makran Subduction Zone earthquake.

    Computer modellings programs help analyze sea-level data to generate forecasts of tsunami wave height and the expected inundation for specific coastal areas. In this research we use ComMIT software. For modeling the wave, the assumption for 10*100 Km blocks is applied. In this formulation, the approximate for wave behavior is represented for coastal regions. In this modeling, three steps of gridding with different preciseness are used. By assuming an earthquake by magnitude of 8.6 Richter and movement of 6 blocks mentioned in the subduction area close to Jask, each block rises about 16 m. the first impact by coast by a wave of 2 m height knocks up the coast at 26 minutes.

     According to the performed modeling, the first change after Tsunami is reduction in sea level and this procedure continues till 11 minutes after that. In this time, the maximum amount of water regress from coastal line for 2 m is observed. After this time, the first wave attacks Jask. The first wave impacts Jask headland and then affects the whole eastern coast of Jask. The wave height in this region in 26 minutes after Tsunami reaches to 2 m and starts approaching in the coast. This process occurs in the western coast of Jask by a 10-minute delay. The first tall wave impacts western coast at 36 minutes after Tsunami and regresses for about 2.5 Meter. The second wave is ready to attack the western coast and 40 minutes after Tsunami the second wave attacks eastern coast. The height of this wave in its maximum is about 2.5 Meter.

    According to investigation of existing models concerning influence of Jask city by Tsunami is divided to three sections: A) eastern coast of Jask, B) Jask headland, C: western coast. The eastern coast us the first region that is confronting attack of the greatest waves and the maximum rate of wave march in the coast (about 1 Km) is in this region. In this area the slope is about 1% and concerning topography, it provides an appropriate condition for wave on the coast. In eastern coast of Jask, there is an intense concentration of governmental offices and military centers including Jask airport and Admiral Force’s quay. In the first waves caused by Tsunami, these installations would be damaged severely and in second and third waves this process continues.

Mesysam Jamali, Ebrahim Moghimi, Zeynolabedin Jafarpour, Parviz Kardovani,
Volume 2, Issue 3 (10-2015)

The process of urbanization and development in high-risk areas such as river banks has increased the vulnerability of urban communities to environmental hazards. The banks of Khoshk River in Shiraz is one of these areas. These hazards are two parts : hazards resulted from river and waterways erosion (destruction, transportation and sedimentation) and the hazards resulted from floodings over the surrounding urban areas.

In order to prepare the literature review for this study, the various books, theses and articles were applied. Also, in order to determine the spatial position of this section, the Satellite Images and Google Earth pictures were used. The Global Positioning System (GPS) was also applied for the field observations such as collecting spatial data, extracting the kind of formations, Geological structures and faults. ArcGIS and Global Mapper 16.2 were also used for data processing and mapping.

 The geomorphological hazards in Khoshk River bank were evaluated in two parts:

  1. The evaluation and analysis of the role of river and flooding processes in creating the environmental hazards for Shiraz.
  2. The evaluation and analysis of the role of humans as the intensive factors of riverine and floods hazards in city.

 The evaluation of longitudinal profile in the river indicates that when the stream is entered to plain, the water moves with more speed because of faults and high steepness over the  Drake alluvial fan. One indication of this process is the presence of coarse sands and angled gravels. In this part, the erosion of riverbank is much higher than the erosion of river bed. In this section, the longitudinal profile of the river has a regular trend of concave and convex sections due to the erosion in convex parts and sedimentation in concave parts. In addition, there is a balance between deposition and digging process. The erosion is very intensive in regions where arc meander is close to  the flooding plain of the bank and causing the destruction of all facilities.

 The longitudinal profile in the river indicates that the height and slope of river has been reduced from North West to Maharloo River. The average slope of the river is 2.40%.

         In order to determine the role of flooding in creating risks for Shiraz, the floodwater discharge data were collected from Regional Water Organization. Furthermore, in order to understand the role of maximum discharge values, various experimental relations were used in the basin. The un- ordered development of urban areas especially in the north west, destruction of natural areas intensified the amount of  runoff and reduction of vegetation cover.

 The pick values of maximum discharges in Khoshk river  with the return periods of 50 and 100 years waere estimated 115m3/s to 131.4m3/s respectively which may result in overflowing of water on the streets. The human factors include the construction of bridges on the river, fencing river with stones and construction of beach, construction of bypasses for public transportation and reducing the traffic in the riverbed and trespassing to the river bed in Shiraz caused the overflowing of water from the river. The last floods in Shiraz occurred in 1987 and 2002 that caused major losses to the houses and commercial places close to Khoshk River. In order to analyze parts of river that are close to the town and have more important influences on the hazards and disasters, the satellite images of khoshk river basin in the town were taken and the river was classified in three sections with regard to risks level, river morphology and river classification based on its hazards for close areas as high risk (Maali abad Bridge limits to Fazilat Bridge and Sardkhaneh Bridge to Maharloo River), low risk(Tange sorkh to Maali abad Bridge) and medium risk (Fazilat Bridge to Sardkhaneh Bridge).

Sajedeh Moghimi, Danial Monsefi Parapari,
Volume 6, Issue 1 (5-2019)

ite selection for Temporary Earthquake Shelter Compounds, Using Analytic Hierarchy Process and Weighted Linear Combination based on GIS; Case Study: Shahrood
Natural disasters are unpredictable and unavoidable and their occurrence in human settlements has led to catastrophes in many cases. Therefore, it is necessary to prepare prior the occurrence of these events. A prompt response can be a solution to this goal. As long as assurance is provided to the affected population that there is no lack of assistance and facilities, their ability to return to pre-disaster conditions and recovery will be increased. Selecting the right accommodation according to the needs of people after natural disasters, as well as planning to meet the needs of the victims, not only reduces risks and expedites recovery operations during reconstruction, but also strengthens the protection structures and advances the safety aspects of communities prior to any kind of incident. Increasing concerns arising from high occurrence of natural disasters, especially earthquakes, and witnessing the unpleasant consequences, will emphasize the need for proper habitation conditions and facility provision. Iran is a country that is prone to disasters. In fact, no country in the world is immune to natural disasters. In this research, urban areas of Shahrood located in Semnan Province, have been studied with regard to seismic potential and proximity to the southeastern part of Alborz Mountain and Shahrood’s faults as a sample for selecting appropriate post-earthquake shelters. The overall purpose of this research is to propose a decision making process for efficient and safe spatial planning in the wake of crises. In the first step, the structural vulnerability of buildings in terms of foundation quality and their vulnerability measures is estimated at 24% of the city, which is equivalent to 12778 buildings prone to destruction, even facing a mild earthquake. After analyzing the possible damage to the city, according to the average household size of 3.43 people in Shahrood, 43829 people are estimated to be homeless. The amount of space needed to accommodate these people, with an estimated per capita of 30-45 square meters per person, was estimated at 132 to 198 hectares, which could be used in a few distinct and scattered spaces. After determining the area needed for settlement, the criteria influencing the location of temporary shelters were identified based on scientific literature and analysis of previous experiences. According to these studies, the criteria for influencing this concept are classified into nine groups including access, location, cultural, economic, compatible and incompatible neighbors, infrastructure conditions, land quality as well as space area. The subsets of these nine criteria can be categorized into two groups: constraint factors and classification possibilities. Factors such as distances from faults, high voltage electric power lines, vulnerable zones, gas stations and chemical storage facilities are known to cause limitations. The concept of the facility in this research, in addition to proximity to residential areas, main roads and storage depots, includes access to compatible applications, medical centers, security centers, fire departments and outdoor spaces; hence it is necessary to accommodate people at the minimal distance from these facilities. Parameters such as area, surface water, infrastructures and available energy sources are some of the criteria that need to be measured in terms of their quality in proposed options and decisions are to be made on the basis of their existence and accuracy. Since each parameter has a different effect on the location of temporary accommodation therefore, the list of priorities is sorted accordingly. In this article, a methodology for locating shelter after an earthquake has been recommended by using hierarchical analysis, weighted linear combination and GIS. In this multi-criteria decision-making process, the weighting process was performed on each parameter by paired questionnaires that were provided to 40 experts, and analyzed according to the principle of hierarchy (AHP) and arranged in Expert Choice software. Then, all of the data layers in GIS software were combined with WLC method according to the criteria and standardization. The Geographic Information System (GIS) has been used as one of the most useful tools in allocation and land use planning. To analyze the data in the software, after converting the data into the Raster structure and classifying the layers in appropriate categories and in accordance with the functional radius, a conclusion was made in the Arc GIS environment. The output, obtained by overlapping the collected items, is a list of land plots suitable for post-disaster shelters, sorted according to the aforementioned priorities.
Keywords: site selection, temporary sheltering, AHP, WLC, GIS

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