Journal of Spatial Analysis

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  Iran is a wide and great land that is located on Alps earthquake belt of Himalaya. Great part of the urban and village residency of the country have been exposed to the intensive earthquake and destructive. Sarab city with several other cities, including Tehran, Karaj, Abyek, Qazvin, Roudbar, Khalkhal ,Tabriz, Marand and khoy are located on Earthquake belt that Earthquake risk is too high.   In Eastern-Azerbaijan and Sarab, potential earthquake risk is very high, since there are a lot of active faults and historical evidences show the horrific and destructive earthquakes.   Sarab city located in the Sarab plain which have abundant faults in various directions. Earthquake as a natural phenomenon doesn’t have good results but what can make it a catastrophe, is the lack of prevention from its effects and no preparation for coping with its aftermaths.   The unsuitable establishment of structural elements and urban land-uses and atypical web of urban open spaces, the old ages of and low quality of the structures in the decayed area of the factors like this have main role in the increasing the amount of damage entered to the cities against to the earthquake.   It is necessary to reduce the vulnerability of the cities against the earthquake and to consider it as one of the main goals of the urban planning.   Main objective of this paper is planning for reduction of damages arising out of earthquake in Sarab city. The study area is the Sarab city with four urban regions and 15 districts. The present research is an applied study.   For this purpose, considering the goal of the study, nine factors including the type of structural materials, the quality of the buildings, the number of the floors, the population density, pedestrian width , the availability of open space and distance from river were identified and evaluated, so that for each of the indicators or factors, one layer of map with shp format was produced and then in an analytical hierarchy process and weighting to the variables, layers overlaying operation using available analytical functions was implemented in Arc Gis software. Finally the vulnerability map of the Sarab city was prepared. According to the results of AHP model, it is concluded that Sarab in terms of vulnerability has no appropriate status against earthquake risk so that the whole Sarab city is vulnerable to earthquake, but some of its neighborhoods due to low quality of buildings and vulnerability of streets network and inaccessibility to open areas and excessive compression are more vulnerable. Deteriorated urban area is one of the most vulnerable parts of the Sarab city during the occurrence of the earthquake. Therefore, to reduce the health and wealth damages which can cause by the earthquake in the city.  

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Environmental hazards are considered as one of the main obstacles for achieving sustainable human settlements development (particularly in rural areas). Today, with a new look at crisis management, using all managerial, organizational and planning accomplishments before the crisis, is an essential and rational concern. Rural settlements of the country along with cities always are threatened by a variety of environmental hazards, but what makes these spaces different from the cities is the high-intensity of vulnerability due to its physical decay texture. In this regard, one of the key elements in confronting the possible crisis that must be taken into account is the crisis management bases in which all prevention, preparedness and response measures, including disaster relief, temporary accommodation for the injured, etc. is provided and minimizes the consequences of potential crisis. Being located in the Kahrizak fault zone and the placement of hazardous industries in this region, is the main reason for selecting Kahrizak district as a study area in this research.    To achieve goals of constructing crisis management bases which indeed is the tactic ability of crisis management system (CMS), it is required to set the site selection criteria and standards for constructing them in such a way that provide more operational activities and develop the level of their impacts. In this regard, in the first step, the final criteria for site selection of crisis management base were selected after reviewing previous studies. Then, after surveying the experts and also the localization of criteria on the basis of area condition, seventeen final criteria were determined. For quantitative criteria, data were collected through organizations and reference centers and for a single qualitative criterion (cultural convergence), the questionnaire instrument used in gathering data. After collecting data using library and field methods, a combination of two models: fuzzy logic and hierarchical analysis process (AHP) applied for optimal location of crisis management base.    To determine the impact level of each criterion in the site selection process in two above-mentioned models, the standards for each of the seventeen criteria was determined with the help of combination method. The standards of some of the criteria determined using the standards in related organizations and some other standards proposed by experts and also through the localization by the researcher. Afterward, initially fuzzy standardized common scale maps produced from all information layers in a raster format. Then selected criteria by experts in the format of AHP model were compared with each other through pairwise comparison method. As a result of this comparison, the weight of criteria was determined which indicates the preference degree of each criterion over the others. At last, all standardized (fuzzified) layers multiplied in each of the final weight resulting from Analytical Hierarchy Model and in total converted into weighted fuzzy layers. In the next step, following the process of fuzzy model, fuzzy addition and multiplication operators were applied on output layers. Finally, to modify the layer resulting from fuzzy addition and multiplication, the Gamma operator was used. As such, after producing layers of different fuzzy gammas, essential assessment was conducted for selecting appropriate and ideal gamma. In order to do this, produced layers of each fuzzy gammas were compared with the study area for optimal location and the establishment of crisis management base. Since the gamma 0.9 had the most conformity to suitable zone in the layers of study area, it was selected as the appropriate gamma. However, to ensure the selected location, field study was conducted.     According to the research findings, the following conclusions were obtained: Site selection criteria for rural crisis management base not only has an environmental essence (built and natural), but socio –economic criteria are important as well Effective criteria for site selection of rural crisis management base, affected by regional and local requirements are not the same. Localization of criteria is a necessity that should be considered in site selection. Standards based on site selection criteria depending on the type of services, goals and location at multiple spatial levels (regional, local, urban and rural) is different: in the other words one size does not fit all Site selection is not only based on the location within overlaying information layers by using the models, but the final choice is done after field evaluation and visit.

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Resilience are concepts that are finding increasing currency in several fields of research as well as in various policy and practitioner communities engaged in global environmental change science, climate change, sustainability science, disaster risk-reduction and famine interventions (Vogel, et.al, 2007). Where the risk is a probability of damage, injury, liability, loss, or any other negative occurrence that is caused by external or internal vulnerabilities, and that may be avoided through preemptive action (Benson, et.al, 2004). Among natural disasters, earthquakes, due to the unpredictable nature of these events, are one of the most destructive. Iran is one of the most earthquake-prone countries in the world that its cities most affected by this phenomenon. Among the cities of Iran, Tehran, as the country's first metropolis, due to dense population, poor physical development, structural density, and lack of standards, is potentially facing a serious threat. The purpose of this study is to investigate the spatial flexibility of Tehran over the region 12 after the earthquake incidence.

The present study is dealt with the data preparing and analysis using geospatial methods. The several geospatial data such as Peak Ground Acceleration (AGA) map, urban structure, infrastructure and population collected from Tehran Disaster Management Center were provided and analysis based some GIS known algorithms. In other to urban spatial resilience zonation the AHP (analytical Hierarchy Process) was implemented to generation risk map. Finally OWA (Ordered Weighted Average) method was implemented in order to Production spatial flexibility map of earthquake incidence over the District 12 of Tehran. AHP model uses of priorities straight experts, but OWA provides of control the level of compensation and risk-taking in a decision. Using the conceptual of fuzzy quantifier with OWA makes the qualitative data analysis enter to decision.

    According to flexibility of the final map with fuzzy operator (All) equivalent to the operator MIN, the worst result Was obtained and resulting the highest risk and lowest flexibility respectively (Districts Nos. 2,12,7,8 and 11).By taking all the criteria of a criterion without compensation by other criteria as "non-risk" is obtained .

Map obtained with fuzzy operator (Half) has the high potential to provide suitable options,  because in addition to integration criteria the importance of each parameter based on the weight given to the criteria are considered. In this map Districts Nos.2.6 and 8 (Baharestan, Emamzadeyahya and Sanglajedarkhangah) respectively were most Risk to earthquakes and therefore less flexibility to the earthquake. The map obtained with the fuzzy operator "Atleast one" is equivalent to MAX operator districts Nos. 2,12,7 and 8 (Baharestan ,DarvazehGhar of Shush,Abshardardar and Sanglajedarkhangah)  respectively were most Risk to earthquakes and therefore less flexibility to the earthquake.

The fuzzy conceptual map quantifier showed that districts Nos. 2 and 12 (Baharestan and DarvazehGhar of Shush) were most vulnerable and therefore less flexibility to the earthquake as final results.

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Introduction: Wetland ecosystems, especially marine coastal wetlands of the most important and also the most vulnerable are the world's environmental resources. Which has always been sensitive to the fragility of coastal areas, high population density and intensive human activities are faced with the threat of destruction. Based on this, monitoring the trend of the changes in wetlands and their surrounding lands can be effective in the management of these valuable ecosystems. Investigating the environmental risk is a suitable instrument for evaluating and ensuring understanding of the relationships between stressor factors and environmental effects especially in wetland ecosystems. In general, application of methods of evaluating environmental risk is one of the important tools in studying environmental management along with identifying and mitigating potential environmental damaging factors in wetland regions in order to achieve sustainable development. Today, multi-criteria decision-making methods are employed in evaluating the risk in many studies.This study is based on multi-criteria decision-making methods to identify and analyze the risks threatening Tyab- Minab International wetland located in Hormozgan province was conducted.
Materials and methods: Based on the methodology to identify and prioritize risks Delphi, AHP and TOPSIS techniques were used to determine the risk priority number. In the first phase of this study, to identify and screen the main criteria of project selection, Delphi method was used. In this study, the panel of interest was determined based on a combination of experts with different expertise and out of a sample of 20 individuals, in which experts with various expertise gave a score from 1 to 5 (Likert scale) to each criterion. In this way, 32 criteria were identified as the most important and considerable risk for Minab Wetland and further proceeded to the second phase for prioritization and analysis. In this stage, multi-criteria decision-making methods were used, in which hierarchical analysis process was employed for prioritizing the criteria using Expert Choice 11 software. The indices of risk evaluation including the impact intensity, incidence probability, and the sensitivity of the receptive environment in environmental risk evaluation of wetlands do not have an equal value and significance. For this purpose, to weight the factors effective in estimating risk level and for prioritization of risk options, the technique for order of preference by similarly to ideal solution (TOPSIS) and Excel software were benefited from for calculations. The spectrum of scoring to each of the indices of incidence probability, impact intensity, and the sensitivity of the receiving environment was chosen from very low (1) to very high (9) based on hour spectrum. Following investigation of the types and frequency of indices along with the method of score determination of these indices, three indices of risk intensity (C1), risk incidence probability (C2), and the sensitivity of the receiving environment (C3) were chosen for risk ranking using TOPSIS model. Next, after determination of risk priority number using TOPSIS, the risk levels were calculated and evaluated using normal distribution method for each risk. To determine the degree of risk-taking, risks are organized in a descending order, where the elements of the number of the class and the length of the class are determined based on Relations 1 and 2 (n is the number of risks). Next, the risks are categorized based on these classes. Considering the concept of ALARP, the risks under investigation are divided into high risks, medium risks, and low risks. In this study, considering the number and length of classes, the studied risks were categorized in six levels (critical, intolerable, considerable, medium, tolerable, and trivial risks).
 

(2)

(1)

the number of classes=1+3.3 log (n)
the length of the classes= the greatest risk value - the smallest risk value/the number of classes
Results and discussion: In the first step, the final indices of the wetland's environmental risk were identified and the development of hierarchical tree and classification of the risks threatening wetlands along with their incidence probability in two groups of natural and environmental criteria was performed. Eventually, the final weight of criteria resulting from paired comparisons was obtained in Expert Choice 11 to achieve the score of incidence probability of each risk. Based on the results, among the natural, social, economic, physiochemical, biological, and cultural criteria, drought and climate change, increase urban and rural development, Smugling of fuel, oil pollution, reduce the density of vegetation, indiscriminate exploitation of groundwater were of high priority. The results obtained from ranking the the risks threatening Minab Wetland using TOPSIS suggest that oil pollution, dam construction upstream, persistent drought and climate change, and sometimes alcohol and fuel smuggling and illegal overfishing the priorities are first to fifth. Also Results showed that the respectively based on (Cj+) oil pollution (0/9109), dam construction (0/8121), the drought and climate changes (0/8063) and the smuggling of fuel (0/7520) are in Unbearable level.
Overall, the results indicated that same as this research, wetland ecosystems are subject to many threatening factors, resulting in ecological imbalance and abnormal appearance of the wetland, putting the wetland entity into danger of extinction in terms of fauna and flora.
Conclusion: Nowadays, for assessment of environmental risk, various methods are used, each of which has positive and negative points given the studied environment and the conditions governing it. Therefore, one cannot reject or approve one method with total confidence. By employing novel methods in risk evaluation, the intensity of risk incidences and, in turn, the damages and losses incurred to the environment can be prevented or at least mitigated. Further, it is also possible to move in line with proper and optimal management of environmental resources, especially wetlands and with sustainable development. Undoubtedly, understanding and recognition of the factors threatening wetlands, according to the importance and the impact of them, Prevent and cope with the threats and accurate project preparation and implementation of wetland conservation plans and environmental management.

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Developing urbanization and changing hydrological conditions of natural streams increases the flooding risk. This study tries to do flood hazard zoning in the Ilam city and determine the critical area of the urban regions against flooding by using AHP method and GIS environment. For this purpose, the parameters of the curve number, height, distance from the river, geology, land use, population, slope, soil, building density, worn texture buildings and accumulated flow as effective parameters in flooding hazard in Ilam city selected and of these parameters weighted by using Expert Choice software. The result of the Expert Choice software is transferred to the environment of GIS software and flood hazard map of study area prepared. Results of the study and flood hazard map show that areas with very low-risk, low risk, intermediate-risk, high-risk and very high-risk form the 0.8%, 8.5%, 49.6%, 32.54% and 8.56% of the of Ilam city area, respectively. Also, the central area of the city has the highest risk and the probability of occurrence of the flood due to the high density of population and residential areas in this area and its proximity to the seasonal rivers and old part of the city. Therefore, by examining the results of Expert Choice software, it is possible to identify the most effective factors in the occurrence of flood risk and prioritize them to address management solutions to eliminate or mitigate the effects of these factors.

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ite selection for Temporary Earthquake Shelter Compounds, Using Analytic Hierarchy Process and Weighted Linear Combination based on GIS; Case Study: Shahrood
 
Abstract
Natural disasters are unpredictable and unavoidable and their occurrence in human settlements has led to catastrophes in many cases. Therefore, it is necessary to prepare prior the occurrence of these events. A prompt response can be a solution to this goal. As long as assurance is provided to the affected population that there is no lack of assistance and facilities, their ability to return to pre-disaster conditions and recovery will be increased. Selecting the right accommodation according to the needs of people after natural disasters, as well as planning to meet the needs of the victims, not only reduces risks and expedites recovery operations during reconstruction, but also strengthens the protection structures and advances the safety aspects of communities prior to any kind of incident. Increasing concerns arising from high occurrence of natural disasters, especially earthquakes, and witnessing the unpleasant consequences, will emphasize the need for proper habitation conditions and facility provision. Iran is a country that is prone to disasters. In fact, no country in the world is immune to natural disasters. In this research, urban areas of Shahrood located in Semnan Province, have been studied with regard to seismic potential and proximity to the southeastern part of Alborz Mountain and Shahrood’s faults as a sample for selecting appropriate post-earthquake shelters. The overall purpose of this research is to propose a decision making process for efficient and safe spatial planning in the wake of crises. In the first step, the structural vulnerability of buildings in terms of foundation quality and their vulnerability measures is estimated at 24% of the city, which is equivalent to 12778 buildings prone to destruction, even facing a mild earthquake. After analyzing the possible damage to the city, according to the average household size of 3.43 people in Shahrood, 43829 people are estimated to be homeless. The amount of space needed to accommodate these people, with an estimated per capita of 30-45 square meters per person, was estimated at 132 to 198 hectares, which could be used in a few distinct and scattered spaces. After determining the area needed for settlement, the criteria influencing the location of temporary shelters were identified based on scientific literature and analysis of previous experiences. According to these studies, the criteria for influencing this concept are classified into nine groups including access, location, cultural, economic, compatible and incompatible neighbors, infrastructure conditions, land quality as well as space area. The subsets of these nine criteria can be categorized into two groups: constraint factors and classification possibilities. Factors such as distances from faults, high voltage electric power lines, vulnerable zones, gas stations and chemical storage facilities are known to cause limitations. The concept of the facility in this research, in addition to proximity to residential areas, main roads and storage depots, includes access to compatible applications, medical centers, security centers, fire departments and outdoor spaces; hence it is necessary to accommodate people at the minimal distance from these facilities. Parameters such as area, surface water, infrastructures and available energy sources are some of the criteria that need to be measured in terms of their quality in proposed options and decisions are to be made on the basis of their existence and accuracy. Since each parameter has a different effect on the location of temporary accommodation therefore, the list of priorities is sorted accordingly. In this article, a methodology for locating shelter after an earthquake has been recommended by using hierarchical analysis, weighted linear combination and GIS. In this multi-criteria decision-making process, the weighting process was performed on each parameter by paired questionnaires that were provided to 40 experts, and analyzed according to the principle of hierarchy (AHP) and arranged in Expert Choice software. Then, all of the data layers in GIS software were combined with WLC method according to the criteria and standardization. The Geographic Information System (GIS) has been used as one of the most useful tools in allocation and land use planning. To analyze the data in the software, after converting the data into the Raster structure and classifying the layers in appropriate categories and in accordance with the functional radius, a conclusion was made in the Arc GIS environment. The output, obtained by overlapping the collected items, is a list of land plots suitable for post-disaster shelters, sorted according to the aforementioned priorities.
 
Keywords: site selection, temporary sheltering, AHP, WLC, GIS
 
 

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Zoning the possibility of landslides downstream of Sanandaj Dam
1-Introduction
The purpose of this study is to select the best model and identify landslide risk areas in the downstream basins of Sanandaj Dam. Every year, mass movements in the region cause damage to roads, power lines, natural resources, farms and residential areas, and increase soil erosion. Kurdistan province, with its mostly mountainous topography, high tectonic activity, diverse geological and climatic conditions, has the most natural conditions for mass movements. According to the available statistics, this province is the third province in terms of landslides after Mazandaran and Golestan. (Naeri, &Karami, 2018). The Gheshlagh River Basin is a mountainous region with a north-south trend. In terms of construction land, it is located on the structural zone of Sanandaj-Sirjan. The study area with an area of 970.7 square kilometers is located downstream of Sanandaj Dam. The city of Sanandaj is being studied within the region. Due to the type of climate and morphological processes, effective parameters are provided for landslides in the geography of the region.
2-Methodology
In this study, 9 effective factors for landslides, including slope, slope direction, fault distance, road distance, waterway distance, lithology, land use and precipitation were used. Using Google Landsat 8 ETM satellite imagery, Google Earth software identified 237 slip points. Then, the coordinates of the slip points were transferred to the Arc GIS software and a map of the landslide distribution area in this environment was prepared. Also, in this study, 89 non-slip points were prepared for use in the training and testing stages of Persephone neural network inside slopes less than 5 degrees. Artificial neural networks are made up of a large number of interconnected processing elements called neurons that act to solve a coordinated problem and transmit information through synapses. Neural networks begin to learn using the pattern of data entered into them. Learning models, which is actually determining their internal parameters, is based on the law of error correction. In this method, by correcting the error regularly, the best weights that create the most correct output for the network are identified. The neurons are in the form of an input layer, an output layer, and an intermediate layer. ahp includes a weighting matrix based on pairwise comparisons between factors and determines the level of participation of each factor in the occurrence of landslides. In this model, a large number of factors can be involved and the weight of each factor can be obtained using expert opinion.
3-Results
According to the results of the high-risk class neural network model, which occupies 31% of the basin area, it is the widest risk zone in the region. The middle class also accounts for more than 29 percent of the area, followed by the low-risk class. The results of the AHP model show that the middle class, with 32% of the area, has the highest dispersion in the region, the low-risk class and then the high-class are in the next position. The AHP model was used to prioritize the parameters affecting the landslide. The parameters of slope, lithology and land use play the most important role in the occurrence of landslides, respectively, and have the least role for slope direction, distance from fault and height. The results of the models used are consistent with the reality of the region's wide-risk hazards, and high-risk areas based on the models used are mostly located in the west and southwest of the basin. These areas correspond to the mountain unit and the steep slope. Based on the results of AHP model, the impact of human factors in the occurrence of landslides is weaker than the natural factors of the region and human factors play a stimulating and aggravating role in primary factors. Five methods for error detection were used to evaluate the models used
4-Discussion and conclusion
 .Due to the sensitivity of unstable slopes in the region, any planning to change the use and construction that increases the weight of the load on unstable slopes should be done in terms of geomorphological and geological conditions of the region.
Keywords: hazard zoning, landslide, neural network, AHP. Sanandaj Gheshlagh Watershed
 

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Prioritization analysis of effective factors in non-participation of local societies in desertification projects (Case Study: Ain Khosh region, Ilam province)
 
Introduction
Participation in social affairs is a commitment and acceptance of individual and social responsibility that all human beings will have to accept. This commitment and responsibilities may take the form of definite and unlimited activities. By increasing the population and the complexity of the goals and efforts of the human community to advance economic, cultural, social and political goals, we inevitably need partnership and cooperation. Participation means using personal resources to participate in a collective action. The first step is to increase popular participation in desertification initiatives, identify and remove barriers to effective non-participation in project implementation. The main objective of this research is to prioritize the factors affecting the lack of public participation in desertification plans using the FUZZY-AHP method and the Friedman nonparametric test.
 
Materials and methods
The statistical population of the study consisted of households in Ein-e-Khosh village of Dehloran Ilam and experts of Ilam University and natural resources organization of Ilam province and Dehloran County with more than ten years’ experience in combating desertification issues. In this research, the indexes and sub-indicators related to library studies, questionaire from experts of the university, experts from the Natural Resources Department of Ilam province and Dehloran city, as well as referring to the region and interviews with the residents of the region were identified. Then, the questionnaire designed by the FAHP method evaluated by inconsistency rate and its validity and reliability by Likert scale, and finally tried to prioritizing them based on the following steps. First, the prioritization of the indicators was performed from the expert's point of view using Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP). Then, the prioritization of the indicators from the perspective of experts by application of Friedman test and finally, the priority of indices and sub-indicators by the local point of view with Friedman's test.
 
Results and discussion
The findings of the research showed that the ranking of indices using Friedman's nonparametric test is based on the average rating from the viewpoint of residents of the region, respectively, economic index, design-executive, educational-promotional, and social. Also, this prioritization from the perspective of experts using the FUZZY-AHP test is design-executive, economic, educational, promotional and social priority, respectively. Also, the results showed that in the total of 15 identified subcategories influencing the lack of public participation in combating desertification projects, from the perspective of experts, the sub-design of the design-executive entitled "Short-term, mid-term and long-term non-planning for participation" with the average rating of 11.68 was the most important and the sub-index, "Migration of youth in the countryside" with the average rating of 3.59, is the most insignificant sub-indicator. However, from the perspective of residents in the region, the underlying economic indexes "disregarding people's income as a direct incentive to implement combating desertification projects" with an average of 11.24, the most significant and sub-indicator of the design-executive "lack of full allocation of funds during the implementation of combating desertification projects" with average rating of 5.63 is the most significant sub-indicator, which indicates that economic indicators and design-executive, along with the sub-indexes, are the most important reasons for non-participation of people in combating desertification projects in the study area.
Due to the fact that the indicators and sub-indicators are identified based on the opinions of experts and locals in the study area, this has led to familiarizing the respondents with the research. In this research, the FAHP and Friedman test were used. According to the topic of the research in the field of public participation, the best tool for measuring the comprehensive statistical view of experts including experts and locals with regard to the study area is considered. In the reliability of the FAHP questionnaire, the responsiveness questionnaire has high reliability with regard to the multi-stage and multi-stage couples comparing method and the incompatibility rate test (mean 0.043 inconsistency rate). Cronbach's alpha test was used for Likert scale questionnaires. Results (Cronbach's alpha = 0.83) showed that the questionnaire had acceptable reliability. So, results is in consistence with other researchers' findings, including Saleh Pourjem et al. (2017).
 
Conclusion
According to the results obtained from prioritization, it has been shown that in the subject of participation, in spite of the difference between the views of experts and the people of the region, in some cases, the main priorities in the discussion of non-participation are almost similar; these results are consistent with the studies of previous researchers such as Saleh Pourjem et al. (2017).
It is suggested that the removal of obstacles to public participation in combating desertification projects be put on the agenda of trusteeship organizations and public participation in all stages of design, implementation and future protection in the combating desertification projects will be considered.
 
Keywords: People’s Participation, MCDM, FUZZY-AHP, Friedman Test
 

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