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Assessing the Level of Adaptive Capacity in Rural Districts of Rawansar City to drought
Adel Solimani, Hassan Afrakhteh, Farhad Azizpour, Asghar Tahmasebi,
Volume 3, Issue 2 (5-2016)
Abstract

The latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) on climate and global warming Indicates that climate change and global warming in particular is one of the most important challenges of the world and drought, as a consequence of climate change around the world, has always influenced the many countries, including Iran. However, it seems that the climate changes, particularly in the West and Iran, especially among farmers and rural communities vulnerable to the effects of economic, social and environmental impacts that are more significant. In other words, Continuous droughts are faced villagers and farmers with various problems and challenges, In this regard, villagers Choose the local and specific strategies in the face of this creeping disaster that improve them adaptive capacity to drought. Nowadays, special emphasis is put on the notion of adaptive capacity instead of vulnerability. So the need to have research in rural levels obvious, especially in Iran where there has not yet been any deep and encompassing study on the concept of adaptive capacity in rural level. adaptive capacity to climate change is the ability of a system or an individual to adjust to climate change or climate variability so as to minimize the potential damages or cope with the consequences. Therefore, adaptive capacity is the ability to plan and use adaptation measures to moderate the effect of climate change. There is an increasing need to develop indicators of adaptive capacity to determine the robustness of response strategies over time and to understand better the underlying processes.

Adaptive capacities of villagers depend on certain factors or attributes such as their knowledge on and number of times they use a particular adaptation strategy. Other factors are the availability and accessibility of the adaptation strategy. Also, the number of consultations that a villagers makes on a particular adaptation strategy affect whether the villagers will be lowly or moderately or highly adaptive to drought.

Identifying the overall level of adaptive capacity to drought in rural areas, in order to Effective management is special importance, Because that by identifying and ranking of adaptive capacity in rural areas, adopt appropriate management strategies to reduce the damage caused by drought is possible.

Therefore, the purpose of this study is assessing the adaptive capacity to drought of between four villages in the central part of the city Rawansar in Kermanshah province. For this purpose five most effective and important index to measure the  adaptive capacity to drought as follows:  Knowledge, Use, Availability , Accessibility and Consultation, according to the literature, were selected. Then by using one sample T-test, the effectiveness of each of the above-mentioned indicators on the villagers adaptive capacity were reviewed and approved from the point of view Village contributors of the central city Rawansar (N = 48) who were selected by census method. In the next step, to determine the index weight, using the snowball technique and purpose sampling, 10 experts in jahad  agricultural  office in Rawansar city were selected and their comments were used. The results by TOPSIS technique based on these indicators, showed that rural areas of Hasan Abad and Zalu Ab  in the Rawansar city, had the greatest adaptive capacity to drought, While  rural areas of Dawlat Abad and Badr had fewer adaptive capacity to drought. The Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) is a multi-criteria decision analysis method, which  is based on the concept that the chosen alternative should have the shortest geometric distance from the positive ideal solution (PIS)and the longest geometric distance from the negative ideal solution (NIS).It is a method of compensatory aggregation that compares a set of alternatives by identifying weights for each criterion, normalising scores for each criterion and calculating the geometric distance between each alternative and the ideal alternative, which is the best score in each criterion.The findings of this study could have recommendations for rural planners to effective crisis management in order to reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience villagers to drought.


Investigating farmers’ behaviour management in drought period as prevention responses: the case of Dehloran district
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Volume 4, Issue 4 (1-2018)
Abstract

Farmers in developing countries are among the most vulnerable to climate change effects, particularly drought. Drought is a serious and dangerous phenomenon in most part of the world particularly arid and semi aired region such as Iran and it is estimated that Middle East is expected to be particularly badly affected with a decline in precipitation of at least 40mm over the coming century. In Sum, drought is a recurring climatic event that can happen in all parts of the world. In terms of people affected, it is the number one risk of all natural hazards, with more than 1 billion people affected in the last decade. In fact, drought is considered as a disaster, causing heavy costs for farmers' livelihoods and agricultural systems. Therefore, most of the drought effects are in societies where agriculture is a major component of their economic activity. As such, the livelihoods of farmers that are among vulnerable communities is strongly affected. In other words, at the global scale, agriculture is by far the most important user of water and, as pressure on water resources increases, the need for new approaches to managing those resources is becoming more pressing. However strong evidences confirmed that farmers can actively response to drought and manage and reduce it effects. As such promoting farmers to actively response to drought is very urgent and necessary. First step to this policy is understanding farmers’ current situation and their intention and behaviour. In fact, understanding farmers’ perception toward drought is a key to preparing to reduce the effects of it. In other words, drought management relies heavily on farmers understanding how to reduce their water consumption and on applying their understanding to everyday activities so that they consume sustainably. Furthermore, attitudes of farmers toward drought and drought management are closely linked with their behavioral management and experience with past events (Yazdanpanah et al., 2013). Hence, attitude and past experience can affect the assessment of coping strategies in the future, which is especially important from a preventive action point of view (see Krömker and Mosler 2002).  Therefore, a deep and proper understanding of the factors that determine adaptation with the new conditions is very much needed. As such, the aim of this study is to investigating farmers’ intention and behaviour toward drought management. Among other dimensions it is assumed that psychological issues play an important role in predicting farmers’ intentions and actual responses, however, little research has focused on the psychological mechanisms that facilitate or constrain drought adaptation behavior. In this context, a study was carried out to identify the most prominent drivers of, and impediments to, drought adaptation, using health belief model. The Health Belief Model is an expectancy value model. According to this theory, an individual’s behavior is a utility of the probability of consequences accompanying with that behavior and the probable value or evaluation of those consequences. The overall desirability of the behavior is based on the summed products of the expectancy and value of consequences. Theory claims that health decisions are based on two major components. These are perception of threats and behavioral evaluation, which, in turn, is divided into four psychosocial sub-components (beliefs) the “threat perception” refers to a supposed vulnerability to a disease and estimated costs of this disease, while “behavioral evaluation” refers to benefits and barriers for adopting own behavior. Also based on these four beliefs, the HBM comprises other additional cognitive or motivational components to change or predict behavior, such as “cue to action” and “health motivation” or “general concern”. These components refer to the cause of health behavior, which, in turn, impacts the level of worry about health problems. Furthermore, Becker and Rosenstock (1987) added “perceived self-efficacy” as a perceived behavior control component to the HBM. While perceived self-efficacy originates from the social cognitive theory and refers to the degree, to which following a particular pattern of behavior is imaginable or unmanageable for the person and can enhance the predicted power of the model. The Health Belief Model was quantitatively tested using the survey methodology to understand farmers’ intention and behaviour. An in-depth literature review was used to develop the questionnaire to collect data for this study. Data were collected through personal interviews based on a structured questionnaire. The questionnaire was structured to assess the central components of the Health Belief Model. The questionnaire was used for a face-to-face survey with farmers. Answering time for the questionnaire was about 15-20 min. Researchers received all completed questionnaires directly after the survey; no intermediaries were involved into the analysis or interpretation of results. The questions were scored on a 1-5 point scale (very low, low, moderate, high, very high) to reduce the statistical problem of extreme skewness. Based on Ajzen's (1985) recommendations, scales containing multiple items were developed to measure each of the psycho-social variables. It is important to note that for assessed Health Belief Model variables we used items that closely follow the measurement of this constructs used in past studies. The statistical population of this study was the farmers of Dehloran city, located in the villages of Anaran, Seyyed Ebrahim, Seyyed Naseroddin, Abu Ghavir, Dasht-e-Abbas, Nahr Anbar. In order to determine the volume of the sample, the Kargets and Morgan tables (1970) were used. According to the size of the population (farmers in Dehloran city), the sample size was 320. In this study, a randomized cluster sampling method with proportional allocation was used. The reliability of the main scales of the questionnaires’ was examined by Cronbach Alpha coefficients, which ranged from 0.65 to 0.84, indicating the tool of study is reliable. A multiple step-wise regression analysis, with intention regarding response to drought as the variable, and with Health Belief Model variables as the framework, the results revealed that general beliefs, self-efficacy and perceived benefits are significant predictors. These three variables predicted 54% of the variance in intention regarding response to drought. Same regression was carried out so to determine factors that can predict farmers’ behaviour regarding drought management. The results revealed that intention, perceived severity, perceived vulnerability and perceived benefits are significant predictors of behaviour. These variables predicted 21% of the variance farmers’ behaviour toward drought management.

Vulnerability assessment of households to flood risk in the rural areas: case study of Aqqala and Gomishan Counties
Changiz Seravani, Gholamhossein Abdollahzadeh, Mohammad Sharif Sharifzadeh, Khalil Ghorbani,
Volume 8, Issue 2 (9-2021)
Abstract
Zoning map Vulnerability of Flood Spreading areas
(Case study: Musian Flood spreading station in Ilam province)
 
 
 
Introduction
One of the flood plain hazards is a change in the pattern of surface flows due to natural factors or human activities. Changes in the stream pattern are the changes that occur due to the surface stream patterns in terms of the shape of the drains, drainage form and quantitative morphological indices of the basin. These changes ,by formation of flood, submersibility, erosion, longitudinal and transverse displacements of rivers and streams, environmental degradation, etc., have a great deal of risk and harm to residents of the land adjacent to the watersheds, including the demolition of residential buildings,  valuable agriculture lands, facilities, river structures, buildings and relation routes, etc. There are several watersheds in the Musian Plain Basin that regularly change the direction of surface streams and, while displacing large volumes of sediments of erosion-sensitive structures, degrades crops, rural dwellings, connection paths, facilities, Irrigation canals obstruction, water supply and a lot of financial and physical damage to the residents of the region. Therefore, in order to solve these problems, in 1997, the Dehloran flood spreading plan was carried out at a level of 5000 hectares from the Basin of Musian Plain. Although some of the changes in the dynamics of the region, such as stream pattern, flood control, supllying groundwater aquifers, etc., have been caused by the implementation of this plan, but the problem of the concentration of watersheds behind the embankments composed of sensitive formations ,and the release of these areas will have many financial and even physical losses. Therefore, with the implementation of this research, it is attempted to identify the domain and risks that threaten the lowlands and to identify the appropriate measures to prevent them from happening with the zoning and inspection of the vulnerable areas of the Musain Plain.
 
 
Methodology
This study was conducted in five stages to prepare a vulnerability map of the flood spreading area of ​​Mosian plain. First, the implementation phases of the flood distribution plan were separated. In the second stage, information layers of effective factors in changing the flow pattern and concentration of surface currents behind the flood spreading structures were prepared. These layers included elevation, slope, and direction classes, which were prepared based on the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) extracted from the 1: 50,000 topographic maps of the Armed Forces Geographical Organization, as well as the layers of geological formations and land use changes. The lands were prepared based on the maps of the Geological Survey of Iran and the processing of Landsat satellite images of eight OLI sensors in 2013, respectively, by the method of determining educational samples. In the third stage, each class of effective factors in changing the flow pattern (mentioned layers) was given a score based on the range of zero to 10. The basis of the scores of the classes of each factor was according to the number of classes and the average of the total classes of that factor. The fourth stage in the GIS environment was created by combining the weight layers created, the vulnerability layer of the study area (quantitative map of vulnerability areas) of the basin. Then, by analyzing the vulnerability layer (filtering), the pixels and small units were removed or merged into larger units. The last (fifth) step was to classify the quantitative layer and then extract the qualitative map of the vulnerability zoning according to the range of scores based on the five very low, low, medium, severe and very severe classes. A summary of the research steps is shown in the form of a diagram.
 
Results and Discussion
The results showed that the most important threat and danger factor is the concentration of waterways behind erosion-sensitive embankments. Also, the study area in terms of vulnerability includes three classes with medium risk, high and very high and covers 16, 62 and 22% of the area, respectively. Flood and upland Spreading areas, risk areas and lowland lands are the most vulnerable parts of the basin in terms of floods and sedimentary deposits.
 
Conclusion
Based on the results obtained by combining the information layersof the factors influencing the stream pattern change, the zoning map of vulnerable areas of the region was created in 5 classes. Except for very few and very small classes that are not present in the region, there are other cases at the basin level:
Medium class:Includes about 16% of the basin. The existing watersheds in this part are ranked 1th class, and some of them are entering the rivers of Dojraj and Chiqab in the eastern and western parts. The formations of this part are often Bakhtyari and limitedly Aghajari. The floors have a height of 100 to 400 meters and the gradient is from 0-2 percent to 20 percent.
Medium class: About 62% of the basin level. The watersheds that flow in this section are in 1to 5 class. The formations of this part are often alluvial and bakhtiari of lahbori sections. It has a height of less than 100 meters to 300 meters and a gradient of 2-0 percent to 20 percent.
very intense: it covers about 22% of the basin's surface. The existing watersheds are of of class 2 and 3. The formations of this part are often alluvial and bakhtiari of lahbori sections. They have height classes of 100 to 300 meters and the gradient is 5-2 percent and is limited to 5 to 10 percent in the slopes.
 
Keywords: Vulnerability, Aquifer, zoning, Satellite imagery, Environmental hazards, Musian
Factors affecting the adaptation of rural settlements to the water crisis of Lake Urmia Case study: Miandoab County
Sorayya Ebrahimi, Abdolreza Rahmanye Fazli, Farhad Azizpour,
Volume 9, Issue 3 (12-2022)
Abstract
Factors affecting the adaptation of rural settlements to the water crisis of Lake Urmia Case study: Miandoab County

Problem statement
In recent years, Lake Urmia, the largest lake in Iran, has faced severe water shortages, which has raised concerns in terms of economic, social and environmental consequences in the surrounding communities, especially in rural areas. Livelihood dependence of rural community stakeholders, to the natural resources and agricultural products have caused the harmful effects of drying Urmia Lake to be more visible. The drying up of Lake Urmia is not limited to this lake, but human communities have also suffered a lot from their sphere of influence. Due to the human effects of the drying of Lake Urmia,  it is necessary to analyze the effects of this phenomenon from a human perspective in research. Identifying the adaptive capacity of rural community stakeholders makes it possible to adopt appropriate management strategies to reduce the damage caused by lake drying. Therefore, despite the importance of the subject of this research, it seeks to study the factors and forces affecting the adaptation capacity of rural settlements in the face of the drying crisis of Lake Urmia in the city of Miandoab and so on.

Research Methodology
In terms of methodology, strategy and design, the present study is a combination of (mixed), sequential and explanatory exploratory, respectively. In this study, for a detailed study of community mentalities, a discourse on effective factors to increase the adaptive capacity of rural settlements in the face of drying or water retreat of Lake Urmia, the combined method of (Q) was selected. The research discourse community included local managers (governorate experts, heads and employees of government departments, districts, rural districts and Islamic councils) as well as local experts in the sample villages of Miandoab city. Targeted sampling method (snowball) was used to select the statistical sample. Q statements were also compiled using first-hand sources (expert opinions, local managers, field observations, etc.) and codified sources (books, articles, publications, etc.) using the library and field methods. The Q questionnaire was also used to assess the attitude of experts. In order to analyze the data of the Q (Q) method matrices, heuristic factor analysis based on the individual method (Stanfson method) was used.

Description and interpretation of results
 In reviewing the findings of the exploratory factor analysis model with KMO criterion, Bartlett test confirmed the sufficient number of samples and its appropriateness for the research. To investigate the most important influencing factors, the specific value and percentage of variance were calculated and the number of factors was determined by pebble diagram and Kaiser Guttman criterion. The results showed that the most important factors and forces affecting the increase of adaptation capacity to the drying of Lake Urmia in the sample villages of Miandoab are: 1) Increasing economic capital and the use of natural resources, 2) Increasing social capital and investment, 3) Developing infrastructure facilities and improving the skills of villagers, 4) Economic diversification and improving rural management .. Among these factors, the first factor with a specific value of 5.40 and a percentage of variance of 24.55 was recognized as the most important factor and effective force in increasing the adaptation capacity of the studied villages against the drying of Lake Urmia. Thus, economic and natural factors, as the most important assets of the villagers, are endangered at any time by the drying up and retreat of the water of Lake Urmia and have a direct impact on the livelihood of the villagers.

Keywords: Adaptation capacity, Lake Harumiyeh, Miandoab County.

 
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