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Showing 43 results for Hazard

Bohloul Alijani,
Volume 1, Issue 1 (4-2014)
Abstract

Environmental hazards include all kinds of hazards in the environment such as natural and technological or natural and man-made. The natural phenomena such as rains or floods are the normal behaviors of the nature which only when they cause damage to the human life, are considered as hazard. The technological events such as road accidents, air pollution and chemical pesticides are always dangerous to human life. Both kinds of two hazards are produced in the context of human- nature relation. For example if human beings avoid flood prone areas there will be no harm or damage. And if human beings control their waste in the urban areas they will never pollute the city. Thus, this is the human who causes risk and damage to his life. The relation between human and the nature is governed by the thoughts and beliefs of human or in general terms his world perspective and philosophy. It is the human perspective and belief which controls his action at any circumstances. A person who believes in the nature as his mother and supporter of life differs from the one who thinks of nature as a sole source to use and enjoy. The first one gets only his basic needs from the environment, but the second person tries his best to exploit the nature for his benefits. Therefore to understand the intensity and frequency of environmental hazards, we should investigate the mental beliefs of people living in different places. A brief discussion of the historical development of hazards will help us to have a better understanding of the philosophical basis of the environmental hazards. From the ancient times up to around nineteenth century life was very simple and man had been using nature only for his basic needs, there was no consideration of environmental hazards. Hazards were considered only as diseases threatening the human life. But later, especially after the industrial revolution, due to the increase of human population and demands, the use of natural resources was exponentially increased far above the production and recovery of the nature. This process triggered the occurrence and expansion of environmental hazards.  The human- nature relation is studied by different scientific fields such ecology, anthropology, and geography from different aspects. The ecologists mostly emphasize on the relationship of individuals with his environment, as the characteristics of environment controls his life. While geography studies the spatial relations between human population and environmental assets. As a result, the philosophical stances of these fields differ substantially. Ecologists want to see whether this relation is dominated by the needs and intentions of man or by the capacity and potentials of the nature. From this point of view three kinds of philosophies were developed including anthropocentrism, biocentrism and ecocentrism. On the other side, geography emphasizes on the spatial distribution of human population on the basis of environmental resources. This spatial relation between human and natural resources is believed to be controlled by the nature or human conducing to the development of two philosophies of environmental determinism and possiblism. Ecological philosophy of anthropocentrism was dominated in the earlier centuries, focusing on the will of human to use and enjoy the nature. In this view, the nature has the instrumental value for human. The result of this philosophy was depletion and destruction of the environment in favor of the human development. But during the twentieth century some philosophers stated that the human does not have the right to harm and damage all living creatures including animals and plants. This view ended with the biocentrism approach.  During the second half of the 20th century due to the over exploitation of nature by human, the philosophers and ecologists realized that the human kind in order to possess a sustainable living should not harm any members of the environmental system including even rocks, rivers, soil and etc. This approach developed the ecocentrism philosophy. The main controlling force in these philosophies is the ethical stance of humans. On the other hand, the older geographers believed that it is the nature that controls the human distribution and living conditions. The humans cannot change the natural arrangement of the environment and should limit their activities to the natural allowances. The development of the technology after the Second World War changed this view. Some geographers believed that human can change the environment by his techniques and developed the possiblism. The adoption of this philosophy and the growth of industrial development ended with the deployment and damage of the natural resources. It is clear from the aforementioned discussion that in all cases, the main reason for the depletion and destroy of the environment was lack of ethical considerations in human behavior toward the nature. If the ecologists have come with the ecocentrism, geographers developed the geocentrism philosophy. That is, to save the nature and prevent environmental hazards we, as human beings, should preserve the natural arrangement of resources. We should not disrupt the spatial order of any resources, because it will cause harmful results in the environment. For example eroding the soil will deteriorate the vegetation and cause floods and other hazards. The alteration of spatial order of surface temperature has caused the thermal imbalance and hence global disorder and warming. There is no doubt that the relation of each human should be controlled and put in the moral contexts, but to prevent the environmental hazards an overall effort is needed over the environment which is possible only through the preservation of spatial order of natural resources. Spatial management of land resources is the outstanding example of this philosophy and ethic.


Mehdi Ramezanzadeh Lasboei, Ali Asgari, Seyed Ali Badri,
Volume 1, Issue 1 (4-2014)
Abstract

Natural disasters are investigated of various dimensions and consequences of natural hazards. As well, they can become as a repeatable phenomenon in the absence of mitigation systems, and could be caused devastating consequences. Resiliency approach as a basis for reducing the negative effects is taken into account to reduce the impact of natural disasters. Today, the two tourist areas of Cheshmekile (Tonkabon County) and Sardabrud (Kelardasht County) as typical feature of regional tourism planning have important potentials for development of tourism. But in recent years they have repeatedly been invaded by floods so that in some cases the impact of economic, environmental, socio-cultural and physical environment is followed. In economic dimension, flash flood destroyed agricultural fields and rural houses and in socio-cultural dimension it has increased insecurity. And finally, in terms of the physical and environmental aspect, it has created the most damage such as adverse changes in the appearance of the landscape, loss of trees, and destruction of public infrastructure (roads and bridges network). It is an approved hypothesis that rural settlements cannot be moved to the riverbank, but have created a situation that endangered abiding rural settlement. Various aspects such as socio-cultural, economic and administrative highly effect on resiliency. Among them, the role of infrastructures such networks, the location of health care facilities, police stations, fire stations and disaster management offices, communication networks (telephone, Internet) are more important to improve resiliency. This paper seeks to answer the key question that is the infrastructure in promoting resiliency after flooding in the two areas satisfactory?  The methodology of the study is objective and analytical analysis is based on the nature and method. The main variables are infrastructures and resiliency. Resiliency as the dependent variable consists of two main components of individual and community resiliency. Required information on the objectives, data integrity and availability has been developed in both library and field methods. In previous studies, library and documentation center is studied. Questions are sorted in the distance range, rated and ranked based on the needs and nature of the research and the knowledge and the education level of the local community. Questions are tested initially and after a measurement of the level of reliability (0.812), which is obtained using Cronbach's alpha. First, to determine the total sample size of villages located in flood risk areas in the two basins 9 villages (50%) were selected. Cochran formula is used to determine sample size. According to Cochran formula for the total population 296 households that included 129 head of households for Sardabrud basin and 167 head of households for Cheshmekileh basin. After the initial survey the collected information is encoded using a statistical software SPSS and then has been processed according to the assumptions formulated. Based on the results of the questionnaire analysis, some indicators, same as access to aid agencies (Crescent) and disaster management center, there were no significant differences between rural settlements such as the two basins distance to the city center is short. The nearest major communication route roads - Branch is located at a distance of 5 km from the city of Kelardasht, but in Cheshmekileh basin there are less than 5 kilometers distance to the main road of the Caspian Sea. That is why the average satisfaction of the local authorities in these areas is much higher than Sardabrood basin. Check out the highlights of each area residents is showed more satisfaction on facilities and services infrastructure in Cheshmekile. Result. To understand the relationship between resiliency and infrastructure used is the correlation coefficient between these two measures 003/0 there is level. This relationship of mutual relations, the improvement of infrastructure in the area with 99% probability of increasing population resiliency against natural disasters (floods) within it. The average calculated for the physical aspects - infrastructure represents the position of the component. Ring roads in northern cities, near airports such as Ramsar Branch, and there are several large medical centers, access to police stations in both basins are made ​​from the perspective of the respondents favored the status of this criterion is to be evaluated. However, among the subset of infrastructure, the roads are better than others. The reason can be attributed to the investment and construction of new networks of communication. In the case of energy network, although the topography of the area is caused that part of the basin, some of villages such as Gavpol, Letak, Drazlat in Cheshmekile basin and Lush, Krdychal and Roudbarak in Sardabrood basin was still stay deprived of the gas network but have favorable drink water and electricity network. However, keeping the population in the rural area is largely dependent on the infrastructure. Resiliency in relation to rural and infrastructural facilities, access to places of temporary accommodation is very important but in this particular field in any of the villages still planning has been done.


Tajeddin Karami,
Volume 1, Issue 1 (4-2014)
Abstract

Although environmental hazards occur because of natural factors, however, political economy, controlling the sociospatial relations and conditions, also affect centrally the increase or decrease of physical and social vulnerability caused by hazards. In this regard, present paper has put the spotlight on “explaining the role of spatial distribution of social stratification in vulnerability to environmental hazards in the city of Tehran”. This is based on Political Ecology Approach which emphasizes the domination of prosperous social strata on the urban natural-ecological endowments and utilities and marginalizes low-income and inferior social strata. So, the recognition of social strata inhabitation across the city is significant for the analysis of social inequalities and their effects on the vulnerability of environmental and human hazards. The concentration of middle to high class and working and inferior classes has also caused the range of social inequality to increase in the metropolitan of Tehran and this trend per se has transformed Tehran to the spatial reflection of the contrast between poverty and wealth to the greatest extent in the country. Hence, regarding the fundamental role of social stratification and class structure and its evolution in explaining the dynamics of socio-economical relations in the dominant society and the process of urban space production and reproduction, explaining the role of spatial distribution of social stratification in vulnerability to environmental hazards in the city of Tehran is significant and necessary. Vulnerability to environmental hazards has been studied from the physical, biological perspectives, social construction perspective and contingency perspective. The present paper emphasizes the effects of social construction on the production of vulnerability. Scientists think radical and critical geography of space is a kind of social production. They believe that not only urban space, but also the entire space has a social structure and nobody can analyze it thoroughly regardless to the society’s work on the space. Thus in a world under the Capitalist System, urban space represents a reflection of the control and domination of superior social strata (owners of power, wealth and high status, or the owners of political, economic and socio-cultural assets) in its functional zones.  This has been appeared in the recent decades, within the literature of hazards and catastrophes and based on “an approach of vulnerability” which has been rested on Political Ecology. The mentioned approach has been concentrated on a series of socio-spatial conditions and political economy which shapes the hazards and catastrophes. Some of the effective social conditions in shaping the hazards and catastrophes and their amounts of vulnerability depend on the racial, ethnic and class characteristics. Racial, class, ethnic and political economy analyses, which dominate their social ties, are considered as part of understanding knowledge system of hazards and catastrophes. Since this causes detecting the role of political economy of inequalities and racial, class and ethical processes and the marginalization caused by it, in the emergence of hazards and exacerbation of catastrophes and crises impacts. To use job structure means to emphasize concrete class structures, according to which an image of social inequality can be offered. Thus in present study, for structure determination and main composition of social stratification in Iran and Tehran “Structure Determination and Composition of Social Strata Model” was used. According to this model and with the use of data from matrix tables, major occupational groups and occupational situation have been classified in 5 classes superior strata, traditional middle strata, new middle strata, working and inferior strata and farmers. The data were prepared and analyzed by ArcGIS and Ms Excel softwaares.   During the last century, uneven development process of the country was in favor of the Tehran and superior strata and powerful institutions located in this city. Regarding the processes and relations emerged from political economy of space and political ecology of Tehran, social strata inhabitation of Tehran has been in compliance with environmental capacities raised from topographic and microclimatic distinctions and ecological endowments. The findings of present paper also indicate physical and social vulnerability changes caused by probable hazards related to the general pattern of social strata inhabitation in north-south geographical direction. Spatial distribution of populated blocks in 1996, for which more than 30% of their inhabitants were “senior managers and experts” and “manufacturing jobs employees and laborers”, indicates the above mentioned issue and clearly show the poverty (old poor neighborhoods) and wealth (expensive and rich neighborhoods) spatial centers. In addition, according to the supporting studies on Tehran Comprehensive Plan, most of old urban tissues are in central and southern regions. Also according to the International Seismological Research Agency (JICA), the mentioned regions would be the most vulnerable in the Tehran probable earthquakes. Therefore, it can be said that findings and results of the present study indicate the determining place of political economy of space and urban political ecology and also the fundamental role of social stratification and class structure for recognition, analysis, explanation and understanding of the urban development challenges and problems. Hence, this is impossible to reduce social and physical vulnerabilities caused by natural and human hazards, particularly in the poor neighborhoods, regardless of political economy of space mechanisms and reduction of the gap and even urban development. 


Yosef Ghavidel Rahimi, Parasto Baghebanan, Manuchehr Farajzadeh,
Volume 1, Issue 3 (10-2014)
Abstract

Thunderstorm is one of the most severe atmospheric disturbances in the world and also in Iran, which is characterized by rapid upward movements, abundant moisture, and climatic instability. Since this phenomenon is usually accompanied with hail, lightning, heavy rain, flood and severe winds, it can cause irreparable damage to the environment. Investigation of spring thunderstorms has a great significance regarding the irreparable damages can cause by them and also because of the higher frequency of this phenomenon in the spring and the necessity for preparedness and disaster mitigation actions. To identify the locations of the major thunderstorm risk areas, the entire country with an area of 1648195 square kilometers, which is located between the 25°-40° north latitude and 44°-63° east longitude is considered.     Spatial distribution of the occurrence of hazardous spring thunderstorms was analyzed using a series of monthly thunderstorm frequency data obtained from 25 synoptic stations over a 51-year-long period (1960-2010). Ward's hierarchical clustering and Kriging methods were used for statistical analysis. Initially, total number of thunderstorms in April, May and June were considered as the frequency of occurrence of thunderstorm in different stations in the spring. Measure of central tendency and dispersion which consists of the sum, minimum, maximum, range and coefficient of variation, standard deviation, and skewness were used to clarify the changes of thunderstorms and to determine the spatial and temporal climatic distribution of spring thunderstorms. An appropriate probability distribution function was chosen to determine the distributions of the data.  Due to the large volume of data and the uneven distribution of stations, cluster analysis and kriging methods were used to classify different regions into homogeneous groups for zoning and spatial analysis of spring thunderstorms, respectively. The statistical characteristics of spring thunderstorms were reviewed and fitted with a 3-parameter Weibull distribution. Regions considered for this study were classified in four separate clusters according to the simultaneity of thunderstorms in the spring. After zoning, it was found that the highest rates of thunderstorm took place in the northwest and west of country. The northeast of Iran has the second highest number of thunderstorm occurrence. The least number of thunderstorm event had happened in the central and southern half of the country.     According to the descriptive statistics parameters, maximum number of thunderstorms occurred in May.. Based on the results of the cluster analysis, there is a similar trend in the central and eastern regions, the rest of the country was clustered into five distinct homogeneous regions, including the northwestern, western, southern, northern, central northern and northeastern regions. Zoning results indicate that the highest number of the occurrence of this phenomenon in the country is concentrated in the northwestern and western regions. Higher frequency of occurrence of thunderstorms in the northwestern and western regions may be attributed to local topographic conditions like high mountains, orientation of the terrain, solar radiation on slopes and existence instability conditions, hillside convection, the presence of water resources and specific climatic conditions in these areas. In addition, as a result of a continuous surface obtained by the method of interpolation with the least amount of systematic error and also the use of correlation functions for recognizing the spatial structure of the data and estimating the model error when using the Kriging method, the weights are chosen in order to have a more optimized interpolation function. Also the cluster analysis may significantly reduce the volume of operation without affecting the results and will help in finding a real band due to more appropriate classification of different geographic areas with greater spatial homogeneity and minimal variance within the group. Based on the results of the spatial analysis, it is clear that Kriging and Ward cluster analysis methods are appropriate for thunderstorm zoning and classification of different regions according to occurrence of thunderstorm, respectively.


Mahdi Zare, Farnaz Kamran Zad,
Volume 1, Issue 4 (1-2015)
Abstract

The Iranian plateau formed by the active tectonics of the Alpine-Himalayan belt, is situated between the Eurasian and Arabian plates. The plateau is considered as one of the most seismically active regions in the world and is faced with different earthquakes each year. Active tectonic conditions, different faults and seismic sources and a large population in earthquake-prone areas makes it necessary to perform more considerations and scientific studies in order to analyze the seismic hazards and risks.

In this paper, different aspects and effects of the Iranian seismicity has been determined. In order to review the status of seismicity and distribution of earthquakes in Iran, we need first to consider the tectonic setting, structural environment and the active faults of the country. To date, there have been some different studies to divide the the seismotectonic setting of Iran into different seismic zones which are explained in this paper briefly. Moreover, the seismicity and most destructive past earthquakes in the Iranian plateau and distribution of earthquakes are shown.

    One of the most important tools in studying earthquakes is to perform continuous recording and monitoring of the seismic event and ground motions which is implemented using seismic and strong motion networks. The systematic networks have been set up within the country and are working and responsible for data collection and monitoring of seismic events permanently. These networks including the Iranian Seismological Center (IRSC), broadband seismic network of the International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES) and strong motion network of the Road and Housing and Urban Development Research Center (BHRC) are also introduced in the current study.

Given the high seismicity rate in Iran and rapid development and growing of the populated cities and buildings on seismic hazard prone areas, attention to seismic hazard and risk assessments has been become as a particular issue that should be addressed carefully. Therefore, seismic hazard analysis and estimation for the constructions of human structures has become an enforcement for which several seismic regulations and codes have been defined. In this regard, deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard methods have been developed as the two most important techniques. The deterministic method is a conservative approach that is mostly used to determine the highest level of strong ground motion (acceleration) for a special site (such as dams and power plants). On the other hand, the probabilistic method provides probabilities of different strong ground motion levels considering different uncertainties and the useful life of a structure.

    In addition, considering the level of seismic hazard in a region and its population can lead to risk assessment, vulnerability and resiliency of the human societies. Thus, parallel to seismic hazard and risk analysis, it is so important to conduct crisis management, reduce efforts and a continuing assessment of the situation in the country. In the present study, problems and challenges facing the crisis management, as well as urban distressed areas are mentioned.

    Regarding the existence of constant threat of natural disasters, especially high risk of earthquakes, there is a serious need to conduct more scientific researches in various fields, including detailed research on various aspects of seismology in Iran, retrofitting of constructions, crisis management and disaster risk reduction. To achieve this purpose, we need a scientific network in Iran. There sould be several experts and organizations as the members of this network who are able to understand and control the earthquake effects on the society. Necessity of such a scientific network is due to that it is impossible to take efforts in order to reduce the earthquake risks without a holistic perspective and earthquake data completion.

In this regard, we need significant infrastructures in terms of human resources and technical cooperation to motivate a set of organizations, universities and research institutes. The responsible organizations such as geological survey of Iran, National Cartographic Center of Iran, meteorological organization, Institute of Geophysics of the University of Tehran, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Road and Housing and Urban Development Research Center, National Disaster Management Organization, Red Crescent Society of the Islamic Republic of Iran, as well as universities and NGOs must work together to make it possible to review and integrate the existence potentials and to share the information and data of the earthquakes in Iran and define various response scenarios faceing natural disasters, especially earthquakes.


Seiied Mousa Pourmousavi,, Mohammadreza Eghbal, Jalal Khoshkhan,
Volume 2, Issue 2 (7-2015)
Abstract

Nowadays, the adaptation of urban crisis management with  urban development plans is considered as an efficient way of cutting back on damages and it is essential to predict economic and physical susceptibility of families and communities. Therefore, considering the urban crisis index can play a significant role in urban planning. Tehran city thanks to geographic location, climate conditions and geological conditions is among risky cities so that the presence of seismic faults has made this city potentially seismic and in need of comprehensive crisis management; it needs to be confirmed that despite the earthquake potential in the region and the quality of the buildings especially in old and organic texture and other parameters such as access network and buildings and skeletal disorder the occurrence of a large scale earthquake and other natural disasters would be very catastrophic. For this purpose and given the high susceptibility of the region such as the impression by the North and South Rey fault, hazardous industries and fundamental establishments on the one hand and the presence of worn-out texture on the other hand were the reasons behind choosing this region to do the research.

     This research is descriptive-analytic in terms of data collection and practical concerning the function. The location of study is 20th municipal district of Tehran. The area is about 23 square kilometer and by including the range  about 200 square kilometers. The research population consists of 500 experts and administrators engaged in preparation and practice of detailed municipal plan of Tehran city and crisis management organization of Tehran city. The research mass was selected at 217 persons by the use of Cochran’s formula. The sampling method was random classification method. Data collection instrument was the use of author-prepared questionnaire which consisted of four parts. Measurement instrument validity by facial method and its reliability was examined using  Chronbach Alpha. Therefore, after providing the required acceptable reliability among 20 persons of the subjects the personal attendance method of distribution was applied.

     The research findings show that among research variables, locating crisis management uses within detailed plans received more attention (Mean:82/36) and the knowledge of crisis management within detailed plan management process received less attention (Mean: 24/08). Also the study of distribution indices using  standard error deviation and variance reveals that the type of responses to the variable of attention to risky use policies (standard deviation: 4/08) has low distribution and attention to crisis management uses (8/49) has high distribution. For ranking variable conditions Freedman test was implemented. The results obtained from this test showed that the variable of attention to crisis management uses with the mean of 3/81 ranked first and attention to crisis management knowledge within detailed management process with the rank mean of 1/00 stands fourth on the list. The obtained results from the Pearson test also show that among all variables there is a significant relation with a confidence level of 99% and the correlation among them was  positive. Also the highest correlation coefficient was attention to the crisis management uses and attention to crisis management knowledge at the rate of 0/898 and the least correlation is about the relation between the variable of attention to knowledge of crisis management and the reflection of crisis management indexes on detailed project plans at the rate of 0/423.

     Considering the obtained results can conclude  that crisis management indexes through the process of preparation, approval and the administration of detailed projects of Tehran city and 20th municipal district have not been attended sufficiently. For instance, skeletal features determination and operational properties at each urban scale were given the rate of susceptibility and the natural place limitations to enhance escape possibilities and people refuge (apposite building type, low building density, use of paths as the getaway and refuge spaces etc.) have not been estimated and their impacts have not been included in development plans.

     Also neighborhood was expected to be observed in urban lands use determination and avoid incongruous uses next to each other and provide quick exit but such cases have not been attended in detailed Tehran city project and 20th municipal district or that the intended issues have been briefly listed and practically had no use in administration stage. In fact, the bad condition of the skeletal elements location and inapposite uses of the urban lands, deficient urban network, compact urban texture high urban density, improper location of fundamental establishments and shortage and improper distribution of urban open spaces etc. which have critical role in boosting up the rate of inflicted damages to Tehran city against crisis on the basis of the experts’ vantage point has received insufficient attention and while discussing the issue there is no coordination among related organizations concerning a serious attention to such indexes.


Mahmud Falsolyman, Mohamad Hajipour,
Volume 2, Issue 2 (7-2015)
Abstract

The appearance of Hazards in human life is affected by natural and human forces. So far, human beings were the most powerful stimulant to create these hazards and to intensify them. The negative role of human beings in environment is caused by factors like lack of knowledge, weak reaction, technology lack, aggressive ideologies and competition; in social system, however, human behavioral engineering especially in dealing with nature is totally affected by management system.

One of the common human behaviors which place in economic system framework is extraction and exploitation of Mines that has many consequences for ecosystem. In fact, Mines are the result of human beings reactions in dealing with nature which their activity ranges are increasing. According to micro-scale to macro-scale in economics, economic life of a country like Iran is based on its huge natural/mineral recourses.

     On the other hand, environmental consequences of exploiting Mines in this country are numerous and varied. In this study, we tried to present a spatial-temporal analysis and explanation about environmental hazards phenomena in the case of exploiting Mines of the country caused by human beings with the title of "anthropogenic hazards in Mines” that is totally a result of its respective management system.

In terms of its objectives, this study is a practical research and it is a descriptive-analytic one. For data collecting, we reviewed the existing literature and surveyed the data base in Statistical Center of Iran. These data are extracted from 2009 census and 2013 census (because of limited statistical domain) which belong to all the provinces of the country. To perform the analysis, these data are collected based on 5 indices and 16 sub-indices and after completing data base, percentage distribution graphs for Mines  and environmental activities in the provinces (in 5 total framework) has been drawn by using GEO DaTM software. Following that, by using a multi-criteria decision making method (COPPARS) all the regions are ranked according to the level of their environmental hazards in exploiting Mines. Finally, to illustrate the spatial pattern and method of hazards in Mines in the country on the studied period of time, based on COPRAS method, the calculated standard deviation ellipse was drawn in GIS which is according to 2009 and 2013 data.

      Studying the increasing number of Mines  which are exploiting in the provinces of the country during 2009-2013 confirm that most of the provinces had experienced a positive growth during this period of time and among these areas Ardabil, Alborz, Ilam, Bushehr, Tehran, Kurdestan, Qazvin, Fars, Luristan and Hamadan provinces had experienced a negative growth and we can mention to other economic activities reinforcement as the reason of this negative growth such as services in Mines  section rather than activities in this section, spatial location and the influence of border line or ignorance of planning system. On the whole we can conclude that in economic system of the country, there is a constant attention to Mines and expansion of their exploitation in the area.

     According to the findings of this study, we can conclude that in spite of the existence of Mines  which are extracting in all around the country and the expansion of exploitation of these resources in these regions, required attention and consideration is not paid to decrease or modify destructive effects on environment in the case of Mines  which are operating in the country, on the contrary indices such as investment and increasing the value of investment had decreased, and by considering the inflation in country, it can be said that economic attention to Mines  management in the country to reinforce the basis of environmental compatible Mines  is insignificant and declining. So it is not out of question that exploitation of these Mines in this country is an effective and intensifying factor to create and intensify other human-made and natural hazards.

     In regional point of view, management activities which modify negative and destructive effects of exploiting this country's Mines  (maybe in a small scale) are done by ignorance to regions that have predetermined hazards and it seems that other factors are used to conduct and strategize the environmental compatible management engineering in exploiting of the country's Mines  not the systematic management factors; for example, according to Iran's Environmental Protection Organization (EPO) statement, Isfahan, Fars Yazd, Khuzestan, Bushehr and Hormozgan provinces are dealing with the highest level of environmental hazards (IRNA, 2015), while these provinces have the most hazardous Mines  and they are located in the limited area of anthropogenic hazards of Mines  or they are close to regions that have maximum Mines ' hazards. In industrial provinces as Isfahan which are dealing with water scarcity and environmental pollution too, "anthropogenic hazards of exploiting Mines  which are the result of management" could create hazards like different kinds of water and air pollutions and they also enforce spatial environmental hazards.

    Finally, according to spatial-locational movements or changes of place, related to anthropogenic hazards of exploiting Mines in Iran, it can be said that the dominant approach on economic system of region which is related to Mines is proceeding fast to important population centers of the country and similar problematic ecosystems which may cause the appearance of hazardous crisis in some parts of the country.


Ali Ahmadabadi, Abdolah Seif, Somaye Khosravi, Amanalah Fathnia,
Volume 2, Issue 2 (7-2015)
Abstract

Land degradation in arid, semi-arid and sub-humid areas, leads to  desertification and land degradation is a concept that refers to any reduction of soil potentials. In Iran, that 85 percent of its area is classified in arid and semi-arid climates, and  one percent per annum growth rate of desertification and its increasing trends, finding ways to evaluate this phenomenon and its causes in the form of models seems essential. In Iran, especially southern areas due to their arid climatic conditions, are considered to be areas prone to desertification. This study aims to evaluate and analyze the vulnerability of desertification in the Mond watershed located in the northern coast of the Persian Gulf.

     In order to evaluate the potentials of desertification in the Mond watershed, geological, the erosion (water erosion potential), rainfall, slope, elevation levels and land use maps are used.  To identify vegetation cover conditions Landsat ETM + sensor data and normalized vegetation index (NDVI) are used.

     Where in reflected in the near-infrared band (Band 4, Landsat ETM+) and the reflection in the visible band (band 3 sensor ETM+) respectively. Overlaps and combines the above criteria is done using E-VIKOR (VIKOR developed) a method of multi-criteria decision-making models (MCDM). This method is based on a compromise plan proposed in the compromise solution is justified determines solutions that are as close to the ideal solution and has been created through special credit decision-makers. VIKOR use linear approach normal. The normal value in VIKOR  is not related method unit of measure. Also standardization effective indicators of desertification has been done using a linear scale.

      In this study, the ANP method (Analytical Network Process) was used for weighting criteria. Analysis method Network, is one of the popular methods of multi-criteria decision problems. This method complex relationship between and among the elements of the decision by replacing hierarchical network structure considers. Table 1 shows the weights of the effective criteria in desertification. In this study 7 criteria are used that results show criteria’s of climate and vegetation, have the most effective measures in the area of desertification and erosion (water and wind) have the least amount of importance in the region.

Table 1: weight criteria of effectivein desertification

criteria

vegetation

erosion

Precipitation

Landuse

Geology

Slope

Elevation levels

weight(W)

0.21

0.18

0.15

0.14

0.13

0.11

0.08

    After mapping the effective indicators in evaluating desertification separately, Standardization of maps, weighting the index, To obtain amount and   , Finally, the amount of , was produced Zoning map of desertification that in it Mond watershed in the province Bushehr in terms of desertification is divided into five ratio and the area is provided in Table 2.

Table 1: Percentage and  area zone of desertification

amount vulnerabilities

Area (ha)

Area (in percent)

Very low

516300

11

low

598900

13

Average

1438025

30

High

2168675

46

Very High

40825

1

    Studies show that more than half of the Mond basin have on the surface with average risk of desertification and In the continuation of the current trend of soil degradation, desertification prone zones and will be reduced all lead to the deterioration of the natural ecosystems and human life quality.


Mohamad Saligheh,
Volume 2, Issue 3 (10-2015)
Abstract

Tehran, in the south of Alborz Mountains, is faced with three types of weather risk, weather risk caused by geography, climatic risks caused by air resistance and weather risk due to global warming. The aim of this study is to examine the three types of risk in Tehran. The method of this study was to evaluate the changes of synoptic factors that affect global warming and urban development. In order to detect the height changes of 500 hPa two 5-year periods including 1948 to 1952 and 2010 to 2014, were studied.

     The results showed that changes in heights of 500 geopotential, there was an increased risk in the city of Tehran. The effect of climate change in recent decades,  increased the stability of  air in Tehran. Human factors in the formation of heat islands, increase LCL height and density of the air balance is transferred to a higher altitude. Changing urban wind field, atmospheric turbulence intensified, exacerbated thermodynamic gradient, fat and refugee cyclones, heat island effect of the city.

Thermal stability in the warm period will appear. The thermal stability of all levels of lower, middle and upper troposphere was intensified. Thermal stability couraged the  development of subtropical high pressure in the area. With the arrival of the atmospheric pressure during calm and humid days the stability and pollution were increased. Negative vorticity from early June  developed the intensive high pressure over the region. Compare the conditions of the two study periods  showed that  : the height of the high pressure was 100 meters higher than the second period. The number of days of intensified subtropical high increased during the second period.  The high pressure has moved to the northern areas during the second period. This change in the subtropical high pressure increased the dry periods motivating the loss of vegetation. Heat island effect was increased as well. More than 90% of the  temperature inversions occurred  at an altitude of less than 500 meters in both warm and cold periods of year. Wind direction at both stations has shown that the establishment of any pollutant source in the West of Tehran will increase the pollution.


Javad Sadidi, Hamed Ahmadi,
Volume 2, Issue 3 (10-2015)
Abstract

The term "Game GIS” implies to real spatially enabled games in which a special part of the world is virtually simulated, represented and managed. In fact, game GIS is an integrated system consists of video games and geographical information systems, aimed to simulate and representing spatially enabled environment. The achieved result of implementing a game GIS service can be exploited before a crisis for wise designing of a city and diminution of the aftermath casualties. As the decision making process plays the key role to reduce the losses, the need arises for using the models as much as close to the reality. By this, it is possible to use the virtual world in in the form of a game rather than experiencing the real world with real wounded and killed persons in. This enables us to recognize and manage a test environment for promoting the managing the real environment of a city during and before a natural hazard disaster like an earthquake. The game GIS may be counted as a service for sharing and dissemination of spatial information as well as online GIS to have a visual and synoptic management of the earth plant facing various disasters. The current research is aimed to design and implement a software architecture for an earthquake game in Tabriz city (Iran).

The study area is district 10 of Tabriz located within a fault zone. According to field surveys, 82.1 percent of buildings in the study area may be vulnerable against earthquake in terms of the quality of building construction.

Methodology of the research to design, program and implement the game GIS service are undertaken as the following processes: data collection, database creation and software production.

The collected data includes master plan maps of the district 10, building quality, number of floors, building façade materials, age of building, street network (adopted from the master plan of Tabriz) and population of each parcel.  Also, some regions are assumed as hospital, relief-rescue center and treasury money.

To design the software, 2D environment of MapControl and for implementing the game into the 2D environment, ArcEngine of ArcGIS have been exploited. The mentioned engine gives us possibility to use of analysis and modelling capabilities as much as closer to the ground reality which are compatible with available geometry of the terrain (Amirian, 2013, 17-19). The MapControl is a framework in which the map and game area are displayed. Symbology is used to show the persons as well as equipments. Briefly, the stages undertaken during the current research can be explained as the following:

  • Data collection based on available sources via field surveying.
  • Data processing and creating a database from street networks and building owned the age, materials, floors fields.
  • Calculation of vulnerability rate for each building separately as well as the amount of deconstruction damage per Richter.
  • Drawing the street and alley network to prepare network analysis dataset.
  • Preparing special network analysis database and evaluation in various situations.
  • Using the gained layers and implementation of the scenario.

After that, the conceptual architecture of the software has been designed based on the scenario.

The game GIS services has been designed with 6 different classes offer numerous functionalities responsible for displaying program commands and different views of the game. Finally, the service is designed and implemented in a real schema for crisis management application. The resulted game is played in 4 stages. In the first stage, the player starts with a 5 Richter magnitude earthquake and ends while the player gets to 8 Richter. The designed software simulates the destruction rate of buildings based on the influential factors, wounded transfer routing and rescue operation. The game player gains credit according to his quickness and agility. The player would go to the next stage with one Richter magnitude higher, if gains enough credits during each stage. The result of the current research as a Game GIS service, can be used in earthquake simulation happens in various magnitudes for management of decreasing the effects of earthquake, quick reaction, maneuver and education. Considering the achieved results, designing and performing the game GIS service over the web based on open source technologies rather than being desktop and commercial service, can be suggested as a new research frontier for the future researchers.


Mesysam Jamali, Ebrahim Moghimi, Zeynolabedin Jafarpour, Parviz Kardovani,
Volume 2, Issue 3 (10-2015)
Abstract

The process of urbanization and development in high-risk areas such as river banks has increased the vulnerability of urban communities to environmental hazards. The banks of Khoshk River in Shiraz is one of these areas. These hazards are two parts : hazards resulted from river and waterways erosion (destruction, transportation and sedimentation) and the hazards resulted from floodings over the surrounding urban areas.

In order to prepare the literature review for this study, the various books, theses and articles were applied. Also, in order to determine the spatial position of this section, the Satellite Images and Google Earth pictures were used. The Global Positioning System (GPS) was also applied for the field observations such as collecting spatial data, extracting the kind of formations, Geological structures and faults. ArcGIS and Global Mapper 16.2 were also used for data processing and mapping.

 The geomorphological hazards in Khoshk River bank were evaluated in two parts:

  1. The evaluation and analysis of the role of river and flooding processes in creating the environmental hazards for Shiraz.
  2. The evaluation and analysis of the role of humans as the intensive factors of riverine and floods hazards in city.

 The evaluation of longitudinal profile in the river indicates that when the stream is entered to plain, the water moves with more speed because of faults and high steepness over the  Drake alluvial fan. One indication of this process is the presence of coarse sands and angled gravels. In this part, the erosion of riverbank is much higher than the erosion of river bed. In this section, the longitudinal profile of the river has a regular trend of concave and convex sections due to the erosion in convex parts and sedimentation in concave parts. In addition, there is a balance between deposition and digging process. The erosion is very intensive in regions where arc meander is close to  the flooding plain of the bank and causing the destruction of all facilities.

 The longitudinal profile in the river indicates that the height and slope of river has been reduced from North West to Maharloo River. The average slope of the river is 2.40%.

         In order to determine the role of flooding in creating risks for Shiraz, the floodwater discharge data were collected from Regional Water Organization. Furthermore, in order to understand the role of maximum discharge values, various experimental relations were used in the basin. The un- ordered development of urban areas especially in the north west, destruction of natural areas intensified the amount of  runoff and reduction of vegetation cover.

 The pick values of maximum discharges in Khoshk river  with the return periods of 50 and 100 years waere estimated 115m3/s to 131.4m3/s respectively which may result in overflowing of water on the streets. The human factors include the construction of bridges on the river, fencing river with stones and construction of beach, construction of bypasses for public transportation and reducing the traffic in the riverbed and trespassing to the river bed in Shiraz caused the overflowing of water from the river. The last floods in Shiraz occurred in 1987 and 2002 that caused major losses to the houses and commercial places close to Khoshk River. In order to analyze parts of river that are close to the town and have more important influences on the hazards and disasters, the satellite images of khoshk river basin in the town were taken and the river was classified in three sections with regard to risks level, river morphology and river classification based on its hazards for close areas as high risk (Maali abad Bridge limits to Fazilat Bridge and Sardkhaneh Bridge to Maharloo River), low risk(Tange sorkh to Maali abad Bridge) and medium risk (Fazilat Bridge to Sardkhaneh Bridge).


Homa Dorostkar Gol Khili, Yadollah Yousefi, Mehdi Ramezanzadeh Lasboyee, Hematollah Roradeh ,
Volume 2, Issue 4 (1-2016)
Abstract

Natural disasters is one of the main challenges for developing countries, which not only cause death and emotional pain and suffering of survivors, but greatly affecting development. Reduction programs and prevention of disasters, including policies that countries to increase community capacity in disaster, are followed to improve the effects of these disasters. One of the risks that affect Iran, is flooding. Iran has a very high risk of flooding, which in most years, about 70% of annual credit plan is paied to reduce the effects of natural disasters. Floods in recent years has left a lot of damage in many parts of Iran. Because the flood event and can not be prevented, but we can assess the resiliency and vulnerability of risks to reduce the effects of flooding greatly. Planning in disaster management process can reduce the risks of accidents and improve the resilience. Thus, how and by what means we can increase the capacity of society to accept a certain level of risk is very important. In recent years, many researches, focused over concept of resilience and disaster risk reduction policy. This research study area is the Nekarud basin in Mazandaran province. Population growth and unethical uses of Nekarud and natural resources, humans and their facilities, infrastructure and natural resources of the basin are vulnerable. The aim of this study was to evaluate the resiliency and identify strengths and weaknesses in the flood affected villages Nekarud margin is based on random sampling of villages (8 villages) have been affected by floods in recent years, were selected. The research method is descriptive and analytical study of its nature. The aforementioned villages to assess the resilience, the four dimensions of economic, social, and institutional infrastructure based on the location of the axis (DROP) provided by Cutter and his colleagues in 2008, was used. According to the surveys and the results obtained, it can be stated that the model DROP, because of the location-based (geographic), and the integrity of the elections aspects and indicators to measure and assess the resilience of settlements is a good model. The dimensions considered to measure resilience include: economic, social, institutional and infrastructure. After determining the dimensions required components and indicators research, scientific references were identified by the study, questionnaires were prepared. Secondly, the need of the rural sample in the form of a questionnaire, collected and analyzed after coding in SPSS. The findings of the study showed that the settlements are in a different situation in terms of resilience in different dimensions. The economic resilience for the total sample is 8.96. The amount of this variable for Zarandin-e Olya, Zarandin-e Sofla, Abelo and Kuhsarkadeh rural settlements is higher than the average whole.


Said Balyani, Yones Khosravi, Alireza Abbasi Semnani,
Volume 3, Issue 4 (1-2017)
Abstract

Hazard is potential source of harm or a situation to create a damage. So identification of zones exposed to hazards is necessary for planning or land use planning. But this situation becomes more critical when they appear at the population centers. So applying the principle of passive defense based on environmental capabilities is unarmed action that caused the reduction of human resources vulnerability, buildings, equipment, documents and arteries of the country against the crisis by natural factors such as drought, flood, earthquake, etc. Considering the possible occurrence of such risks in population centers, ready to deal with what is known unpleasant and undesirable consequences is necessary. On this basis and given the importance of population centers in Helle and Mond basins, in this study, the authors tried to analyze the Rain hazards of drought and flood.

The study area,Helle and Mond basins, with about 21,274, 47653 km2 area, respectively are located in the south of Iran. The Helle basin approximately is between 28° 20'N and 30° 10'N latitudes and between 50° E and 52° 20'E longitudes and Mond basin is between 27° 20' and 29° 55' latitudes and between 51° 15' and 30° 27'E longitudes.These basins are located in sides of a massive sources of moisture, Persian Gulf.

In this study, data from 23meteorological and synoptic stationsstations, during aperiod of20 years (1992-2011)in northern region of the Persian Gulf (Mond and helle basins)were used to calculate Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The data were collected by the Iranian Meteorological data website (http://www.weather.ir). The SPI is primarily a tool for defining and monitoring drought events. This index may be computed with different time steps (e.g. 1 month, 3months, 24 months). The SPI is defined for each of the above time scales as the difference between monthly precipitation (xi) and the mean value ( ), divided by the standard deviation. To assess flood risk zones, the flood, annual evapotranspiration, cities and populations centers layers were collected in Helle and Mond basins position. The annual precipitations and the SPI maps were drawn by Geostatistics, Kriging. It also the flood and annual evapotranspiration layers were weighted by Euclidian distance method, separately. Finally, all layers are weighted by AHP and fuzzy-linear methods (descending and ascending linear function) into vulnerable layers. The final map of vulnerable areas with flood and drought high risk was drawn based on the algorithm of linear-Fuzzy in a raster format.

According to the results, eastern, north eastern and south eastern part of Mond basin had high annual precipitation. Based on this result, it said that these parts of study area were known the least dangerous areas of vulnerability. The results also showed that with passing of the western regions and going to the center of the study area the annual rainfall have been added over the years. Kazeron, Chenar Shahijan, Firouz Abad, Borm plains and some parts of Khane Zenyan and Dash Arzhan are cities located in this regions. Low latitude, Proximity to the warm waters of the Persian Gulf, low annual precipitation and high temperature causing evaporation and inappropriate environmental conditions in Boushehr province and some coastal cities such as Genaveh, Deilam, Boushehr, Baghan, Lar and Khonj. Accordingly, west, north west, south and south west regions in Helle basin were located in extreme vulnerability zone with a loss of annual rainfall for drinking and agricultural production and poor nutrition underground aquifers.


Ali Jahani,
Volume 3, Issue 4 (1-2017)
Abstract

Trees in urban areas have survived in a wide variety of conditions and constrains, whether developing in natural or manmade habitats. Due to environmental constrains and stresses, urban trees rarely achieve their biological potentials. Indeed, some of trees, in small groups, could excel in terms of age, biomass structure and dimensions in urban areas. In definition, tree hazard includes entirely dead or dying trees, dead parts of harmed live trees, or extremely unstable or unsteady live trees, which could be in result of structural defects and disorders or other factors that have the high risk to threaten the safety of people or property in the event of a failure especially in urban green spaces. Although the pruning or other rehabilitation and mitigation program of trees is known as the one of the principal domains of green space management, it is still includes shortcomings in terms of models and methodologies to classify or prioritize hazardous trees which need to be treated timely. The main objectives of this study were to: (1) model old Sycamore failure hazard in urban green spaces to elucidate the general and defects tree factors affecting on failure hazard; (2) prioritize the impacts of model inputs (general and defects tree factors) on tree failure hazard using model sensitivity analysis and (3) determining the trend model output changes in respond to model variables changes.

The following types of data (target trees characteristics) were solicited for each target tree: (1) General features: Tree Height (TH), trunk Diameter at Breast Height (DBH), Butt Diameter (BD) at ground surface and Vertical Length of Crown (VLC) were calculated from measured girth. Crown Spread (CS) was measured as the average of two diameters of projected drip line of the tree canopy.

(2) Tree defects: Detailed evaluation of individual trees was made according to 6 key physical defects, namely Internal Decay (ID) in percent, Length of Cracks (LC) in m, Crown Defoliation (CD) in percent, and Degree of Leaning (DL).

(3) Sycamore failure hazard classification: Sycamore Failure Hazard Risk (SFHR) classification was the probability that an entire tree, or part of it, will break and fall within the first or second year after study. Considering results of tree regular monitoring after two years, the following classes of tree failure hazard were determined. 1. Extremely Hazardous: Tree failure in the first year. 2. Semi-Hazardous: Tree failure in the second year.

ANN has been recently developed for data mining, pattern recognition, quality control, and has gained wide popularity in modeling of many processes in environmental sciences and engineering. ANN learns by examples and it can combine a large number of variables. In this study, an ANN is considered as a computer program capable of learning from samples, without requiring a prior knowledge of the relationships between parameters. To objectively evaluate the performance of the network, two different statistical indicators were used. These indicators are Mean-Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and coefficient of determination (R2).

In this study, the year of Sycamore failure in urban ecosystems is evaluated using tree variables and artificial neural network to determine the most effective tree variables in SFHR in urban green space. Various MLFNs were designed and trained as one and two layers to find an optimal model prediction for the SFHR and variables. Training procedure of the networks was as follows: different hidden layer neurons and arrangements were adapted to select the best production results. Altogether, many configurations with different number of hidden layers (varied between one and two), different number of neurons for each of the hidden layers, and different inter-unit connection mechanisms were designed and tested.

In this research, 200 trees were totally selected, then general and defects tree variables were recorded in urban green space. Considering the aim of study, which is discovering the relation between general and defects tree variables with SFHR class for modeling, the year of tree failure, was recorded.  

In the structure of artificial neural network, general and defects tree variables were tagged as inputs of artificial neural network and SFHR class was tagged as output layer. Considering trained networks (the structure of optimum artificial neural network has been summarized in Table1), Multilayer Perceptron network with one hidden layer and 4 neurons in layer created the best function of topology optimization (Table2) with higher coefficient of determination which equals 0.87 for class 1 and 0.9 for class 2. Sensitivity analysis respectively prioritizes Crown Spread (CS), Vertical Length of Crown (VLC), Degree of Leaning (DL) and Butt Diameter (BD), which effect on SFHR in class1 (Fig1) and class 2 (Fig2).

The determined procedure of SFHR changes with CS changes in the region declares SFHR increase nonlinearly with an increase in CS. The determined procedure of SFHR changes with VLC changes o declares that SFHR increase nonlinearly with an increase in VLC of tree. The determined procedure of SFHR changes with DL changes in the region declares SFHR increase nonlinearly with an increase in DL. The determined procedure of SFHR changes with BD changes o declares that SFHR increase nonlinearly with an increase in BD of tree.

Nowadays, artificial neural network modeling in natural environments has been applied successfully in many researches such as water resources management, forest sciences and environment assessment. The results of research declared that designed neural network shows high capability in SFHR modeling which is applicable in green space management of studied area. Sensitivity analysis identified the most effective variables which are influencing SFHR. So, to identify hazardous trees in study area, we should pay attention to the CS of Sycamore trees as the variable with high priority in determination of SFHR. We believe that, in hazardous trees management in urban green spaces, we should pay attention to some modifiable factors of tree, which are CS and VLC, by timely tree pruning. We suggest urban green space manager to run SFHR model, for tree stability assessment, before decision making on hazardous trees.


Hamed Abbasi, Siamak Sharafi, Zohreh Maryakji,
Volume 4, Issue 2 (7-2017)
Abstract

Natural hazards are basically the changes that occur in environmental conditions, causing a disruption of the natural life of the people and their exposure to hazardous and degradable elements and elements. Establishing cities and residential areas on landforms has created new perspectives. The development of these areas has altered the geostationary balance of many landforms, and the response of geosystems is an expression of geomorphological hazards such as land subsidence, fault activity, flood, and the like that threatens residents of urban areas. The trend of population growth in the urban areas of Lorestan province in western Iran has also caused the physical expansion of the provincial cities in the periphery. This development has resulted in landslides and areas that, in many cases, have not been studied in environmental and environmental sustainability. The consequence of this is to increase the risk factor of these areas against a variety of hazards. In this regard, the aim of this study is to analyze the geomorphic hazards of earthquake, flood, landslide and liquefaction in the 9 major cities of the province and zonation of areas based on the degree of risk, in order to identify the high risk areas, urban management, necessary measures to increase environmental capabilities. And reduce vulnerabilities
In this research, effective factors were first identified in the occurrence of each of the flood geomorphic hazards, landslide, earthquake and fluidization. Then, maps were prepared for each of the factors, topographic maps, geology, geological data, seismicity, etc. from different organizations and maps were prepared. After preparing the maps, the fuzzy standardization method (decreasing and incremental functions) was used to determine the effective impact of each of the effective information layers in the occurrence of each of the hazards. In the final stage, considering the factors affecting the occurrence of any geomorphic hazards, weighing to layers based on their degree of importance was carried out using (AHP) method. At this stage, the final weight of each layer was multiplied in the corresponding layer, and then together and the final map of each of the geomorphic hazards was prepared. After mapping each of the geomorphic hazards of the studied cities, weighing and combining earthquake, flood, landslide and fluidization layers, maps of geomorphic maps of the cities were prepared.
The study of the geomorphic hazards of the city of Poldokhtar in the south of the province suggests that flood occurrence is considered as the most important threat to the geomorphic city of Poldokhtar. There is also a possibility of liquefaction due to the high groundwater level, especially in the north of the city. In the city of Kohdasht, in the west of the province, the risk of flood events is higher than the other hazards due to the river passing as a drainage of the catchment from the city. Geomorphic hazards in the northern city of northern Lorestan indicate that the central part of the city is at risk of landslide and liquefaction and parts of the north, west and south are exposed to flood. The probability of occurrence of geomorphic hazards in the area of Alshatr in the north of Lorestan province is low. So that the northwest and eastern parts of the city are risk free and in other parts, the risk of geomorphic hazards is moderate and low. Surveying the risks of Boroujerd city indicates that parts of the West of the city that are in high risk of flood, landslide and liquefaction are known as high risk areas and southern regions as low risk areas. Also, among the threats of Borujerd city, the probability of an earthquake due to the crossing of the young Zagros fault from the Silakhor plain is more than the other geomorphic hazards. In the city of Azna, the risk of flooding is considered to be the most significant danger to the city, although there is a likelihood of landslide and fluidization. The study of geomorphic hazards in the city of Aligudarz shows that rivers in the west of the city are exposed to geomorphic hazards, especially flood. In the city of Dorood, the flood event seems more likely than other hazards. The flood event in the central part of the city, which crosses the main rivers, has the highest potential. But in general, the risk of an earthquake is the most important geopolitical risk in the city of Dorood. In the city of Khorramabad as the capital of Lorestan province, the southern parts of the city have the highest geomorphic risk due to the high potential of flood and liquefaction. Also, the flood risk is considered to be the most important geomorphic risk in the city.
The study of geomorphic hazards in the major cities of Lorestan province suggests that there is a probability of occurrence of hazards in urban areas, but the types of hazards are different in cities located in the west and east of the province. Studies show that there is a potential for flood events in many cities, especially in southern cities and Khorramabad, in the capital of the province. Cities located in the east of the province (Doroud, Azna and Boroujerd) have a high density of earthquake occurrence due to the fact that they are located in the zone of the young Zagros fault and the Seychelles seismic quake. Nevertheless, according to geological formations, there is a possibility of landslide occurrence in the cities of Khorramabad and Aligudarz. The likelihood of occurrence of liquefaction occurrence in the studied cities is higher, especially in the eastern province of the province, because the urban areas are mainly located in plains with high groundwater and alluvial soils. The final results show that the risk of flood in the western regions of Lorestan province and the earthquake in the eastern provinces of the province are the most important threats to geomorphic cities.

Seyed Reza Azadeh, Masood Taghvaei,
Volume 4, Issue 3 (9-2017)
Abstract

The field of natural hazards research has a rich history in geography, appropriately so because it involves conflicts between physical processes and human systems. Natural events occur without direct human effect and endanger his social life. Events that enforce average annual up to 150000 human damages and more than 140 milliard dollars financial damages on counties and especially developing countries. Among all the natural disasters, the earthquake is one of the most serious ones. It brings tremendous economic losses and deaths of people, as well as the enormous effects on the harmonious and continuous development of society. Iran is an event ism country in the world. In this field look at the recent decades earthquakes statistics that reveal average once in every five years.
Gilan province is located in south western of Caspian Sea in mountainous area of Talesh and central Alborz range that endure many earthquakes up today. The most ancient earthquake ever occurred in this area refers to Marlik civilization which is located near Rudbar – Rostam Abad. One of the recent earthquake in the 20th century in this area is Rudbar earthquake in 21 Jun 1990 with magnitude Ms = 7.7 Richter that caused many destruction. In one hand according to complex tectonic of central Alborz and in the other hand locating Gilan in the south west of Caspian sea that demonstrate many seismic activities, it illustrates as a result that this area is one of the active high potential seismic area of Iran.
The current study is aimed at investigating the earthquake vulnerability of rural and urban settlements of Gilan province. To this end, Euclidean distant analysis and raster overlay have been conducted in GIS. To run the procedure, the first step is to calculate distance (pixels in 86 m dimension) between province and active and inactive fault line based on Euclidean analysis distance in Arc Map. The next step is aimed at standardizing the calculated distances using Raster Calculator Command. The, zoning of earthquake vulnerability of Gilan into five zones (based on active/inactive faults) is the primary goal. As a matter of fact, standardization leads to fuzzy maps. Standard score (distance) is calculated by dividing each score by sum of the scores. The next step tries to categorize zoning map and to translate Raster map into vector one in order to calculate the area of each risk category. Finally, overlay of urban and rural layers base on zoning map may help us analyze seismic hazard urban and rural regions of Gilan province.
Results have shown that 40.72 % of total area of Gilan province are in 15 km distance from active fault. Also, 21.51 % of total area of Gilan province are in 15 to 30 km distance from active fault. Additionally, 64.45 % of total area of Gilan province are in less than 8 km distance from inactive fault (Table 1).
 
Table 1. Seismic hazard zonation according to faults
Probability of earthquake hazard Distance to fault lines Relative area
Active Faults Passive Faults Active Faults Passive Faults
Very low risk 0-20 60-76 32-42 7.29 1.42
Low risk 20-40 45-60 24-32 13.82 3.96
Medium risk 40-60 30-45 16-24 16.66 8.13
High risk 60-80 15-30 8-16 21.51 22.04
Very high risk 80-100 0-15 0-8 40.72 64.45
sum - 100
 
According to seismic hazards due to active faults, 18 cities out of 51 urban regions are severely vulnerable to earthquake. Accordingly, 67.20 % of Gilan urban population are located at high-risk zone. Seismic hazard zoning map based on active faults have indicated that 20 cities are highly vulnerable to earthquake. (Table 2)
 
Table 2. Investigating the risk of earthquake in urban areas of Guilan province
Probability of earthquake hazard urban Settlement Population (2011) Relative population frequency (percent)
Active Faults Passive Faults Active Faults Passive Faults Active Faults Passive Faults
Very low risk 0-20 3 1 135846 17106 1.14 9.07
Low risk 20-40 6 4 86133 144021 9.62 5.75
Medium risk 40-60 10 8 739095 754968 50.43 49.37
High risk 60-80 14 18 380908 273137 18.24 25.44
Very high risk 80-100 18 20 155188 307938 20.57 10.37
sum 51 1497170 100
 
Seismic studies on rural settlement of Gilan province have indicated that 1350 rural out of 2925 rural residences are severely vulnerable to earthquake because they are near to active faults. These regions are the habitat of 24.9 % of the total rural population. Zoning map based on inactive faults have shown that 1679 rural regions are vulnerable to earthquake (Table 3).
 
Table 3. Probability of earthquake hazard in rural settlements
Probability of earthquake hazard Rural Settlement Population (2011) Relative population frequency (percent)
Active Faults Passive Faults Active Faults Passive Faults Active Faults Passive Faults
Very low risk 0-20 162 42 54240 30236 5.51 3.07
Low risk 20-40 379 147 183718 92018 18.68 9.35
Medium risk 40-60 481 291 255412 176183 25.96 17.91
High risk 60-80 553 766 245392 340448 24.95 34.61
Very high risk 80-100 1350 1679 244942 344819 24.90 35.05
sum 2925 983704 100
 
Studies have claimed that the majority of rural and urban regions of Gilan province are severely earthquake-prone. It is due to geographic and natural features of the mentioned province. To this end, some recommendations are given:
  1. Meticulous supervision on safety of building from the stage of plan-making to administration which have to be based on engineering principles for earthquake-prone cities including Baresar, Ataqur, Asalem, Haviq, and Roodbar which are next to active faults
  2. Prevention of formation of suburbs and towns on southern and northern parts of Gilan because these parts are really vulnerable to earthquake
  3. Prediction of temporary accommodation in central Gilan because this part is less vulnerable to earthquake
  4. To equip buildings, hospitals, schools, and other buildings located in big cities including Rasht, Bandar-E Anzali, Fuman, and Lahijan with facilities required in case of earthquake
  5. To hold training courses in rural and urban parts of the mentioned province to make residents prepared for earthquake and for emergency evacuation
  6. To prioritize reformation of old and historical buildings in Rasht because Rasht is mostly laden with old buildings which are really vulnerable to earthquake

Farzaneh Sasanpour, Navid Ahangari, Sadegh Hajinejad,
Volume 4, Issue 3 (9-2017)
Abstract

International studies show that the damages caused by natural hazards is essential that special attention to natural hazards in urban societies of the world, especially in urban areas of developing countries. In many of these communities needed new ways to deal with these challenges. This method should provide sufficient knowledge to identify the nature of problems and the identification of individual characteristics, socio-economic, physical, environmental and management, would in effect do the "Back to Balance" against natural hazards. This feature Back to Balance the same resiliency. The term resilience has a very long history and its use goes back at least a century BC. According to the different interpretations of the concept of resilience, this term is rooted in the traditions of various disciplines such as law, engineering, ecological and social sciences. Today, the concept of resilience has entered the field of planning with different orientations (social, economic, physical, and administrative, etc.).Although it still focuses more attention on environmental issues and a large part of its exploration dedicated to managing the environmental hazards such as earthquakes, floods, hurricanes and global warming. Tehran, as a result of political and economic influence, special conditions to deal with the crisis in terms of the influence of natural disasters and crisis management in terms of organizational structure and legal. In this respect, residential and urban areas of 12 with characteristic their history can be acute against the imbalances caused by natural hazards and create a crisis in urban life. Therefore, the present study has been prepared for the purpose of stability analysis flexibility in District 12 of Tehran metropolitan city.
This is of cognitive research that has been done for analytical and descriptive. All data is obtained in the manner of library and field. The library of available resources and work conducted the form of a questionnaire survey. Questionnaires have been used of type Likert spectrum (numerous, high, high, somewhat, relatively low, low and very low), and its completion is done by fieldwork. Statistical population has problems of urban planning experts, among them 80 people were interviewed for targeted samples. Resiliency that includes four dimensions (economic, social, ecological, environmental and institutional). Was approved the validity of the index by 7 experts manage urban planning problems. For measuring reliability coefficient is calculated Cronbach's alpha equal to 0/79. For data analysis, the use of statistical analysis such as frequency, maximum and minimum, average and standard deviations, T-Test one sample test and Friedman nonparametric test
The results of the indicators of urban resiliency against natural hazards suggests that economic indicators 73/24 Average been determined and relatively low level, ie below the average level. Results of the test showed one sample T-Test is an indicator of economic status of urban resilience against natural hazards of poor utility. As well as the social, ecological, environmental and institutional (organizational) urban resilience against natural hazards associated with poor utility. Finally the 12 metropolitan Tehran metropolitan areautility resilience against natural hazards with respect to all dimensions were too weak. Friedman test results on the scoreboard indicators showed that the index of environmental sustainability (20/33) related to the ecology and environment in the first rank the importance of urban resilience and adaptability Index System (10/11) related to next institutional (organizational) is set as the least significant indicator. Also, significant chi-square statistic is calculated at a rate of 09/67 in three degrees of freedom at the level of 0.000. So, with a probability of 99% can be said that there is a significant difference between the performance rating of 80 specialist urban resilience dimensions (economic, social, ecological, environmental and organizational) against natural hazards, and not the distribution of the same rank.
This research been prepared with the aim of assessing the scale of urban resilience against natural hazards in District 12 of Tehran Metropolis. Results showed that social, environmental and institutional ecology and urban resilience against natural hazards associated with poor desirability. According to this result, it is concluded that the region as a whole is resilient against natural hazards. In this direction, the resilience approach guidance to managers and practitioners use of flexible decisions and concerted policy for urban management. Build resilience in this area to support programmes should invest in organizing access to both external and existing resources in a fair manner, with a coordinated governance structure, and to facilitate social solidarity and support as part of disaster response. The findings also stress the importance of taking an ecological approach to studying resilience to disasters. Many factors from individual, community, and societal levels seem to be important in shaping resilience perceptions of natural hazards survivors. Understanding this evidence will help to validate and further develop indicators of resilience. Our findings point out that, despite existing pre-disaster vulnerabilities, resilience can be fostered following disasters if community members perceive availability of aid and support and mobilize resources Hence, psychosocial support programmes should invest in organizing access to both external and existing resources in a fair manner, with a coordinated governance structure, and to facilitate social solidarity and support as part of disaster response. The findings also stress the importance of taking an ecological approach to studying resilience to disasters. Many factors from individual, community, and societal levels seem to be important in shaping resilience perceptions of natural hazards survivors. Future research should conduct multiple levels of analysis with an all-hazards perspective to reveal how they can be integrated to increase adaptive capacities. Future research should focus on the process of capacity building through informing action to better prepare for disasters. Finally, this research tells us that due to the resiliency of the city will be able to have knowledge of all relevant indicators in the resiliency and reduce the adverse effects of these risks in urban communities

Faryad Shayesteh, , ,
Volume 5, Issue 1 (6-2018)
Abstract

The role of tropospheric vertical anomalies in rainfall solid Case study: the hazard of hail in Kermanshah
Climate risks is one of the Types of hazards that damages human communities such as the phenomenon of hail, in the micro-scale, it causes financial losses and casualties. Hail is associated to the atmospheric elements and geo-location factors. Whenever weather conditions and appropriate physical processes are combined with geo-location creates and intensifies this phenomenon.
Losses resulted from hail has been more effective in the agricultural sector and in the effect of damaging the crops When growth and budding. However, it disorders in other sectors such as, blemishing residential buildings, Losing large and small animals also, damaging to the aircraft flight and its components. Hail considerable damage in Kermanshah province every year so that Farmers insure their crops against this Phenomenon and the government will incur heavy costs for
damage that is inflicted on the sector of activity.
Research methodology
The current weather data has been used with 3-hour intervals in the statistical period of 65 years (1951 to 2016) from synoptic stations of Kermanshah Province that includes the stations of Kermanshah, West Islamabad, Ravansar, Kangavar, West Gilan, and Sar-e-Pole-Zahab.
Among the 100 present weather code, Codes 99, 96, 91, 90, 89, 87 and 27 have been considered that including hail phenomenon by varying intensities and includes any appearance of this phenomenon in Hours scout and three hours earlier. Then, based on the above code, Were coded in Excel to identifies Codes 96, 91, 90, 89, 87 and 27 When entering from the Meteorological Data To the desired program among Group VII of the data, And when the written code, were identified, Hail days were marked.
Given that in this study Hail is studied regarding the synoptic conditions and temperature anomalies. Therefore, for the synoptic situation, Pressure data, vorticity, Special moisture, Components U and V, Omega transverse profile And outgoing longwave radiation, And for the temperature anomaly, Temperature and isothermal anomalies components Were getting from esrl.noaa.gov/psd site And using the software Grads were drawn maps for a selected day To determine the formation of hail.
Commentaries Results
The frequency of occurrence of hail has reached 187 in the period 65 years in Kermanshah province. This phenomenon generally occurs from mid-September to mid-June. The most number has been in Kermanshah station and the Least in Sar-Pol-Zahab station.
April has had the highest number of hail frequencies in Kermanshah province and the greatest losses in the month related to the agricultural sector. Therefore, Select System hail seems essential to examine how the temperature anomalies and the formation of hail in the month.
On the day of the event, trough hail has been formed in the East Mediterranean.Wrying the trough axis From North East to South West resulted in cold air from high latitudes to the East of the Mediterranean.
The establishment of trough in the middle and low pressure level in sea level and its following Convergence in the balance has created positive omega until balance of 200 hPa and most serious it is at the level of 400 hPa. Negative omega has maintained its association from ground surface until High levels in the study area.
The airflow of vorticity balance 1000 and 500 Hpa Suggests vorticity positive settlement area on the case study. Establishment of short wave in the vicinity of the study area and intensifying ascending conditions also Prolong Positive trough conditions from surface of Earth until 500hpa balance have been The necessary dynamic conditions for Hail in this day.
Special moisture and wind Vector with 700hpa balance of Moisture transfer has been done by two opposite vorticity system. Trough rotary motion Based on the Mediterranean and along the Red Sea on the one hand and Moving anticyclone over the Arabian Sea And the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea on the other, have conveyed Moisture of all moisture sources from The seas around to The study area.
Also OLR anomalies for the hail event day indicates being Negative in the study area and the sharp decline of Outgoing longwave in this day Compared to its long-term average And hence the conditions of cloudiness and the formation and intensification of convection has been provided.
1000 hpa positive anomaly 2 ° is representative the Higher than the average temperature conditions and in the 500hpa anomaly balance Minus 2 degrees Celsius is representative Lower than normal temperatures in the balance. These factors aggravate the vertical temperature gradient in the study area these days. 20+ degrees Celsius the Isothermal curve and -20 ° C. Respectively, the levels of 1000 and 500 Drawn to the area of study And has created a large temperature difference Between the upper and lower levels.
Keywords: Synoptic analysis, Hail hazard, Tropospheric anomalies, Vorticity, Kermanshah Province

Aliakbar Anabestani, Mahdi Javanshiri, Hamideh Mahmoudi, Mohammad-Reza Darban Astaneh,
Volume 5, Issue 1 (6-2018)
Abstract

Spatial Analysis of Villagers’ Resilience Against Environmental Hazards
(A Case Study of Central District of Faruj County)
Statement of the problem
The concept of resilience is the outcome of changes in risk managing in current decade. Today, the views and theories of disaster management and sustainable development seek to create societies resilient against natural disasters. Natural disasters such as earthquakes, droughts, floods, etc. are inevitable phenomenon which always pose a serious threat to development, especially in rural areas. This reflects the need to pay more attention to resilience in local level (rural areas). Resilience is the ability of a social or ecological system to absorb and deal with disorder or disturbance, so that the basic functional structure, can maintain the capacity of reorganization and adapting to changes and tensions. Carpenter defines resilience as the capacity of an environmental and social system to absorb a disruption, reorganize and thereby maintain essential functions. Thus, in order to reduce damage caused by natural disasters, the capacity of rural areas to deal with these events should be increased. Increased level of resilience against natural hazards is possible through accurately identifying the factors affecting resilience. Therefore, the aim of this study is the spatial analysis of factors affecting the promotion of rural environmental resilience in the face of natural hazards in rural areas of Faruj County.
In fact, the present study seeks to answer the following questions: what are the factors which may increase the level of resilience in the sample communities exposed to natural hazards, and how resilient are the sample villages of the study?
Research Methodology
This study is an applied research conducted in a descriptive-analytical method based on questionnaires. Data were collected through library research and field works which required completing questionnaires and conducting interviews with villagers living in the Central District of Faruj County.
Validity of the questionnaires was confirmed based on experts' views and its reliability was calculated using Cronbach alpha for different dimensions. The population consisted of 4591 households from the villages suitable for temporary accommodation. Based on the Cochran formula, 252 were obtained from these samples. They were selected by stratified random sampling.
Using statistical analysis methods in SPSS software, we analyzed the data to measure resilience in sample villages of the study area. We also used Excel and GIS in various parts of the study. To determine the best option, we used the VIKOR models, Gray relational analysis and Additive Ratio Assessment (ARAS).
Results and discussion
The results showed that infrastructure dimension with a mean of 2.92 and the economic dimension with a mean of 2.58 respectively had the highest and least impact on increased resilience which suggest that these villages compared to sample villages have relatively good infrastructure facilities. However, due
to the lack of proper institutional framework and poor performance of crisis management institutions, villagers are less satisfied with these organizations. Accordingly, based on t-test, the actual mean of the total respondents’ views was less than 3 and at the moderate level, and the economic index with the t statistics of -10.38 had the most negative impact on the resilience of the villagers.
It should be noted that according to the results of the resilience correlation with the individual characteristics of the respondents, it became clear that the gender and marital status has a direct and weak relationship with each dimension of resilience, which means men and the married people compared to the women and the singles believe their villages are more resilient. Besides, there is a weak and reverse relationship between the education of the individuals and their resilience, meaning that people with lower education compared to educated people, believe their villages are more resilient. There was no relationship between age and the dimensions of resilience.
In order to assess the impact of each index of the study on the level of resilience in the villages of the study, the confirmatory factor analysis test was used which revealed that among the indices of the study, "the villagers’ satisfaction with the performance of the Rural Council and administers (Dehyars)", "the role of institutions in educating people about various incidents" and "the use of new and durable materials to prevent the damaging effects of the incidents" had the greatest effect on the resilience of the samples villages.
Eventually, to determine the best village in terms of resilience for establishing a temporary settlement site in crisis management, we use three techniques: additive ratio assessment (ARSA),- VIKOR and Gray relational analysis. We prioritized the villages based on the mean rank method. -Considering the indices of resilience in the rural areas of the study, the villages of Mefrangah, Ostad and Pirali have the highest ranks, and the villages of Rizeh and Roshavanlou have the lowest ranks.
Key words: resilience, environmental hazards, organizational-institutional dimension, additive ratio assessment (ARSA), Faruj Central District
Dr Mohammad Mahdi Hoseinzadeh, Miss Sepide Imeni,
Volume 5, Issue 2 (9-2018)
Abstract


 
In Iran, there is a general risk of runoff and flood, and since this country has a dry to semi-arid climate, its predominant rainfall is not evenly distributed in terms of time and place. Routine runoff at the earth's surface can lead to risks such as groundwater abatement, social issues such as population migration, erosion and loss of soil fertility, sedimentation in reservoirs and water quality in rivers. Also, damage to the agricultural sector, subsidence, the destruction of residential buildings and the reconciliation of the urban, rural and nomadic order are all examples of controversy about the risks that runoff and flooding are due to. The severity of these hazards in the Afje watershed is due to the geographical location, the specific climate, geology and pond factors, and a large volume of flooding every year causes the destruction of residential areas, agricultural lands and many financial and financial losses.                            
In this research, data collection was carried out through library and field resources. The main tools of this research were topographic map of 1: 25000 which was used by GIS software for the separation of layers and determining the boundaries of the basin; Land use maps and user data and hydrologic groups of the study area were also used to estimate runoff height using curve number method and Arc-CN Runoff instrument. Then Arc-CN Runoff tool was used to prepare layers and curve number map (CN). Finally, the runoff height of the studied basin was prepared in the GIS software.
Soil Hydrology Group: According to the studies, in terms of breadth and extent, the Hydrologic Groups C has the largest area with relatively high runoff potential. By matching the map of Hydrologic Soil Groups and the mineralogical units of the basin it can be stated that the green mass tuff and thick conglomerates are in the hydrologic group D, and the thick layers of green tuff, marl and sandstone in the hydrologic group C and the rocky layer of limestone in The hydrological group B is located.
Land use: The hydrological status of the land and types of uses in the Afje watershed basin are as follows. Most of the catchment area is covered by medium-sized meadows, which comprises 53.77% of the basin area and is located in the hydrological group C with relatively high potential of runoff production. The rock outcrops are in the next rank, which is in the hydrological group D.
Runoff curve number (CN): Land use maps and soil hydrologic groups were combined and extracted for each curve number range (CN) and CN map was prepared. The Afjeh basin has a curtain number of 66 to 100. The highest value of the curve number is 100, which is related to the outflow of the Afjeh watershed basin, which is practically inert, so all precipitation becomes runoff. The Afjeh basin has a curtain number of 66 to 100. The highest value of the curve number is 100, which is related to the outflow of the Afjeh watershed basin, which is practically Impervious, so all precipitation becomes a runoff. In fact, the curve number 100 in stone is 5.59 square kilometers from the area of the Afjeh watershed. But gardens and Agricultural land have the lowest CN (curve numbers 66 to 77) in the Afjeh basin, and include 4.53 square kilometers of basin area. Therefore, the lower parts have a lower CN than the upstream of basin.               
The runoff height in the four seasons was calculated based on the daily precipitation values occurring at mentioned times.
Based on the average daily rainfall of spring with a value of 10.79 mm and runoff classification, in a small part of the gardens in catchment area due to high permeability of the soil, 2.54 mm of precipitation has become runoff, although it is due to stone due to The Impervious of the surface, 10.66 mm of precipitation, turned into runoff.
According to the studies carried out and according to the potential maps of runoff production in the Afje watershed, in the garden with the value of the curve number 66 and daily precipitation (for example, in the winter with a rainfall of 4.04 mm), the runoff height is 0.76 mm And the peak of discharge of 0.47 cubic meters per second And has the lowest runoff potential. In winter, the upstream sediments of the basin with curve number 100, runoff height of 3.81 mm and peak of discharge of 2.65 cubic meters per second and almost all rainfall becomes runoff. Therefore, the shortage of water resources, the presence of dry and semi-arid climates in the country and the achievement of sustainable development leads to the optimal use of water resources.
 
keywords: hazard, Arc- CN Runoff, GIS, high runoff, catchment Afjeh
 



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