Journal of Spatial Analysis

Abstract 
Fire in natural resources is one of the crises that causes irreparable damage to ecosystems and the environment every year. The purpose of this research is to attempt to study areas of risk aversion and to prepare a map of forest fire hazard area by integrating topographic data and other additional information from a GIS system for Golestan province. In order to carry out this research, firstly, with the removal of the recorded data related to the situation of fires occurred in 2009 and 2010, the domain of all natural resources of Golestan province was carried out. In order to identify areas with high fire potential, static parameters were used to control the burning of forest forests (elevation, slope, slope direction, land use / land cover, evaporation rate). Each of the static parameters is divided into different classes And to each class, using bachelor's knowledge and review of research, ground data and the results of the above studies are weighted from one to ten. In the following, by using overlap of these layers with different weights, areas with high fire potential were identified for the forests of Golestan province. Finally, all weights were summed up, the final weight was obtained and a fire hazard map was prepared. The Arctic GIS9.2 software has been used to generate a fire hazard map. Also, The fire risk index (FRSI), the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI), and the zoning map, have a fire hazard in the risk category (very low to high) ). The results showed that most of the fires occurred in hardy and covered with forested areas, as well as in the forested areas with a crown and an intermediate cover, and in the next stage, in the woods and shrubland areas. In calculating the calculation of fire density in altitudes, the results showed that approximately 90 percent of fires occurred in average altitudes between 700 and 1500 meters. Overall, the findings showed that 90 percent of burns occurred continuously in areas With fire hazard, 30% in hazardous areas and 60% in extreme areas, so that its Galikesh, Minoodasht, , Azadshahr has high risk of high fire.                  

Wildfires have proven to cause considerable damage to natural environments in Ardabil in the last years, and the prevalence of such events is anticipated to increase in the future. Fine scale wildfire exposure and risk maps are fundamental to landscape managers and policy makers for prevention, mitigation and monitoring strategies. In this paper, we provided 100 m resolution wildfire risk and exposure metric raster grids for the fire-prone municipalities in South Ardabil province corresponding to a fire simulation modeling and a geospatial analysis with a geographic information system, along with complementary historic ignition and fire area data (2005-2018). Fire risk parameters (burn probability (BP), conditional flame length (CFL) and fire size (FS)) were generated with FlamMap Minimum Travel Time (MTT) algorithm considering fire weather conditions during the last 14 wildfire seasons. Moreover, we estimated fire potential index (FPI) to spatially analyze where large fires likely initiate. Average BP, CFL and FS ranged from 0.00007 to 0.0025, 0.05 to 1.6 m, and 54.7 to 360.3 ha, respectively, that highlighted a large variation in the fire exposure factors in the study area. The calculated FPI showed two major areas with the highest values, where historic ignitions were high, and where large areas of faster burning fuels were present. The results of this study can be useful for analyzing potential wildfire risk and effects at landscape scale, evaluating historical changes and future trends in wildfire exposure, as well as for determining fuel treatment strategies to mitigate wildland fire risk.