Journal of Spatial Analysis

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 Natural disasters and rural displacement: contexts and consequences in Balouch Abad village
 
Abstract
Every year, a number of rural settlements are affected by natural disasters or human factors, in such a way that life in these settlements is dangerous, and even, in some cases impossible. Thus, displacement programs in the form of leaving the main settlement and creating new settlements in another place will be considered by planners and managers. These programs are not without consequences and affect different aspects of the residents' lives. Identifying these consequences can provide sufficient experience and evidence for managing other displacement projects. Accordingly, the current study focuses on displacement phenomenon in Balouch Abad village in order to identify the consequences of displacement by discovering the contexts of displacement and explaining the residents' perception about the causes of this phenomenon. In general, empirical literature on the topic shows that the consequences of displacement, both positive and negative, occur in all dimensions of human life, and that a change in any dimension can change other aspects of the life of the target community. Investigating all dimensions of displacement has been considered in a few studies, in which less attention has been paid to the existing contexts, perceptions and planning and management structures. Therefore, this study contributes to the relevant literature by querying these contexts and providing solutions for displacement programs in the future.
The aim of this study is to understand the perception of the residents of Baloch Abad village about the causes and consequences of residential displacement using a critical ethnographic approach. This approach is suitable for studying phenomena such as residential relocation, which are the result of the decisions of the planning system and in most cases is faced with the unwillingness and lack of interest of stakeholders (residents). In fact, the critical ethnographic approach seeks to examine inequality, conflict, and power in a subculture. Thus, the process of displacement due to integration with a kind of conflict between residents’ willingness and the planning system, can be well explained using this approach. Data was collected using in-depth interviewing, non-participant observation, and focus group techniques.
The experience of displacement in Balouch Abad village indicated that the consequences of displacement do not occur independently and are correlated with each other. In other words, the negative consequences in terms of social and economic are rooted in the physical- consequences, and on the other hand, the social consequences are also rooted in economic consequences. On this basis, the lack of attention to the proportion of housing based on social relations has been the prelude to occur other negative consequences. The mismatch between the structure and size of dwellings and their occupational requirements (animal husbandry) has led to the collapse of subsistence foundations. Evidence also showed that maintaining neighborly relations in the village was influenced by the physical structure and system of land transfer. As a result, it can be stated that the various consequences of residential displacement can occur through planning and physical management. This study is based solely on the evidence, contexts and perceptions of key stakeholders who are residents of Balouch Abad village; however, the part of the challenges of displacement in this village is due to managerial actions that were not considered in this study. Therefore, it seems that mere focus on the view of stakeholders is one of the main limitations of this study, which is necessary to pay attention to this limitation. In this regard, it has been tried to provide sufficient evidence on manures of management the displacement process through the technique of triangulation. Future studies may take into account the views of both experts and stakeholders at the same time.
 
Keywords: Residential displacement, Balouch Abad village, natural disaster, contexts and consequences of displacement.
 

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Introduction
A flood is a natural disaster caused by heavy rainfall, which causes casualties and damage to infrastructure and crops. Trend of floods in the world increasing due to climate change, changing rainfall patterns, rising sea levels in the future, and in addition, population growth and urban development and human settlements near river have caused floods to become a threat to humans. One of the most important and necessary tasks in catchments is to prepare flood risk maps and analyze them. In recent decades, researchers have been using remote sensing techniques and geographic information systems to obtain flood risk maps in an area. Due to the numerous floods that have occurred in the Neka river catchment, it is necessary to conduct a study entitled zoning of flood sensitivity in Neka river catchment for more effective management in this area.

Materials and methods
Study area: Neka river catchment area with an area of ​​1922 Km2 is part of Mazandaran province in terms of political divisions. This basin is between 53º 17´ 54 º44´ east and 36 º 28 ´to 36 º 42´ of north latitude. The highest point of the basin is 3500 m (Shahkuh peak) and the height of the lowest point of the basin in the Ablo station is about 50 m and at the connection to the Caspian Sea is -27 meters. The seven sub-basins of this basin are Laksha, Golord, Burma, Metkazin, Kiasar, Alarez and Sorkh Griyeh. Geologically, the basin is mostly of calcareous and marl formations. In the south and southwest of Neka River, the rock material is mostly clay and calcareous marl, which makes this basin has a high erosion potential
To study the flood zoning of the area using a multi-criteria decision model, 1: 25000 maps of the surveying organization and a digital elevation model with a resolution of 12.5 meters (Alos Palsar) were extracted. In order to study the flood risk in Neka river, 4 criteria of height, distance from the river, land use and slope have been used. In the present study, modeling and preparation of flood risk zoning map in 4 stage including descending valuation, normalization of each class, normalized index weight and integration of criteria has been done by the following linear weighting method. Performing linear weighting operations depends on the weighted average of a number of selected parameters in the opinion of the expert. According to the weight assigned to each criterion based on the expert opinion, each of the criteria was multiplied by the assigned weight and at the end the criteria were added together and the final zoning map was obtained.

Results and Discussion
In this study, using a multi-criteria decision-making system model, a flood risk zoning map in the Neka river catchment was prepared. According to the weight assigned to each criterion based on expert opinion, the final risk probability map has a value between 0.02 to 0.2, which is ultimately divided into 5 classes in terms of flood risk. Value range 0.02 to 0.06 component of very low risk zone, range 0.08 to 0.11 component of low-risk zone, range 0.11 to 0.13 component of medium-risk zone, range 0.13 to 0.16 component of high-risk zone, and finally domain 0.16 to 0.20 components of the area with very high risk potential have been obtained. According to the final divisions in the flood risk zoning map of the catchment area, a safe area means areas where the probability of flooding is very low and close to zero, and in contrast, the area with a high and very high risk potential for flooding has the probability of high-risk floods. According to the final flood risk zoning map, about 982 Km2 (51%) has high and very high vulnerability, as well as about 510 Km2 (26.69%) has medium vulnerability in Neka catchment area.

Conclusion
The results obtained from the model indicates that the highest risk of flooding points are located in the western parts of the Neka catchment area and the end of the catchment area that reach the city of Neka. According to the research findings, the most important factors in increasing the risk of floods were the slope in this area and the distance from the drainage network. According to the results of the model, a large area of ​​the basin is a component of high risk zone, that means the Neka river watershed has a high potential for floods. Evidence and documented reports show that the Neka river Basin has experienced several floods in the last two decades. The major part of the occurrence of floods is due to the natural conditions of the basin, thus it is necessary to reduce flood damage by changing the locations of various land uses based on flood vulnerability maps. Using multi-criteria decision making method can be used to prepare flood risk zoning maps in basins that do not have hydrometric data; It is also a more cost-effective method in terms of time. One of the important issues in the final result of this model is due to the weight of the layers, which should be used by experts, who are familiar with the region and this method and adapt to field evidence.

Keyworlds: Flood, Multi-criteria decision making system(MCDA), Hazard zoning, Nekarod, Natural hazard.



 

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Abstract
Many villages in the country are faced with a series of dangerous factors and elements due to their location and settlement method, the most important of which are natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, subsidence, rockfalls, avalanches and snadstorms. A set of biological, environmental, social, economic, and physical factors and processes can also increase the level of risk and vulnerability of villages.. Therefore, it is necessary to take steps to reduce the effects and consequences of accidents by using scientific methods of crisis management based on risk management. Experience shows that the huge costs of reconstruction after disasters can be reduced with prevention, prediction and preparation and according to the sixth development plan, 30% of villages and 20% of the border villages must be secured. The current plan is carried out referring to the sixth development program (clause 8th of article 27th) with the aim of securing villages exposed to the risk of natural disasters in order to identify the villages with the characteristic of being exposed to natural hazards, prioritizing and presenting suggestions regarding how to reduce the risk at the villages are exposed the risk of natural disasters in cooperation with the Islamic Revolution Housing Foundation and the National Disater Management Organization. The priority natural disasters in this plan are: floods, subsidence and sinkholes, earthquakes, sandstorm and slope movements (including landslides, rockfalls, creeping and mudflows) in rural areas. At first, a list of villages at risk of natural disasters was prepared and reviewed through inquiries from provincial disaster management and housing foundations. This project was based on appropriate models and methods and with using of disaster risk zoning maps, screening and selecting the list of villages that are more at risk than others  and by combining risk assessment indicators and criteria with environmental, physical, demographic indicators and risk incident records, the villages with the first priority of risk are extracted separately for each province, and then the results of this stage were checked for accuracy in a collaborative process with related organizations at each province and the project entered the phase of field collection and providing implementation solutions. In this plan, out of 48,857 villages with more than 20 households across the country, about 9,000 villages are at risk with high risk categorized in 5 classes and 1,418 villages across 31 provinces with the first priority visited after verification, in order to local check and providing solutions for risk reduction. These villages were visited by experts from different fields and detailed risk assessment was done. In order to obtain the same and comprehensive information by the referring experts for the field visiting, field evaluation forms were designed with a multi-risk management approach.
 The results of the field visits and the proposed solutions were prepared separately for each village according to the environmental characteristics with the aim of reducing the risk and securing and presented to the Islamic Revolution Housing Foundation, the Disaster Management Organization and the Program and Budget Organization. Also, by designing and establishing a spatial information system for monitoring and evaluating rural settlements at risk, on the web-GIS platform (WEB GIS) at the same time as visiting the mentioned villages, the information collected according to the field collection forms was loaded into the system and according to the characteristics This system, such as designing in the Oracle environment, defining the access level for different stakeholders from national to local levels, the possibility of updating information, having different modules, reporting, spatial analysis of risks and producing thematic and combined maps, it is possible to use this system as a decision support system in all stages of crisis management, before, during and after the disaster, at the country level. Increasing and completing the required information in analyzes related to risk assessments, simultaneously with entering the information collected during field visits, as well as updating the information, will lead to an increase the empowerment of the society regarding the risk management of natural disasters and an increase Speed and accuracy in the analysis of the effects, management decisions and as a result reduce the costs of reconstruction and rehabilitation. It is worth mentioning that in order to create the ability to register information collected online, the mobile application system of rural settlements at risk was also designed and operated.

Key words: villages at risk of natural disasters, immunization,identification, prioritization, webGIS