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Sadegh Asghari Lafmejani, Mahdi Naderian Far,
Volume 2, Issue 1 (4-2015)
Volume 2, Issue 1 (4-2015)
Abstract
Every year, natural hazards happen severely around the world. Iran is included in the first 10 countries in the world susceptible to natural hazards, and has experienced 30 hazards out of total 35 hitherto. In this connection, moving sands, as a natural hazard, creates changes to ecological conditions which cause a rupture in the lives of people. The aforementioned hazards leave adverse effects on human habitations and impose wide environmental and socio-economic damages upon societies. Moreover, the sand mass covers arable lands and residential areas, generates air pollution, brings in destruction of topsoil, harms animals, and brings about many losses. This eases desertification and causes damages. Therefore, taking areas subject to moving sand into consideration is very significant in rural planning. Hirmand township in north of Sistan and Balouchestan province is an area open to moving sand onrush. Unfortunately, due to Sistan drought and Hamoon international wetland dryness as a result of the dominant120-day winds in the area, moving sands have come to affect rural settlements. This has put the villagers of Hirmand township to so much trouble. Hence, an investigation and analysis of rural settlements vulnerability to moving sand damages in the villages of Hirmand township is of great significance as a step toward better control of the problem.
The present study is a descriptive-analytic survey containing documentary sources, field studies, as well as village and household questionnaires. The statistical population consists 303 villages in Hirmand township, from which a total of 56 were selected as the sample of the study based on advice given by experts at Housing Foundation of Islamic Revolution, rural administrators and local council members. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP), statistical analyses, spatial analyses, and the software Expert Choice, SPSS, and ArcGIS were used in data analysis. This study, hence, attempts to identify vulnerable habitations and categorize them by employing 54 indexes and assessing and putting them together in different levels.
According to the findings of this study, from the total villages subject to moving sand problem, 55.35 % are found with low or very low vulnerability and 30.38 % are placed in high or very high vulnerability ranges. The investigation of distribution of the villages under study given the vulnerability intensity to moving sand storm revealed that the villages of low or very low vulnerability are situated in the central and western parts of the area under study. These villages enjoy low vulnerability due to water resources, Tamarix hispida trees planted by state-run entities in the moving sand paths, and being away from dry bed of Hamoun Wetlands. On the other hand, the villages of high and very high vulnerability are placed mostly in the northern part of the area under study and adjacent to Hamoun Wetlands.
There are several factors playing key roles in vulnerability of rural areas including environmental elements such as stopping of incoming water flow into Hamoun Wetlands, winds of 120 days, wide geomorphological functions of moving sands, and high reduction in the density of vegetation and trees around and in the villages due to drought. In addition to the above factors, inconsistency of physical context of villages with the movement direction of moving sands has caused accumulation of sands in villages which is effective in vulnerability intensification of many rural areas.
Ruin of houses and cut of communicative roads by moving sands cause disruption in normal lives within the aforementioned villages. In addition to taking damages by moving sands into consideration, the evident role of state services is very significant in decreasing of the damages in all parts of Hirmand. In this connection, belt-like flood preventives built around the international Hamoun Wetlands has made moving sands accumulated behind them and this has decreased intensification of the damages and probable threats from sand onrush to the lower latitude regions.
Accordingly, the results of affecting level comparison of different factors in appearance or intensification of the moving sand’s effects in the villages under study revealed that the effects of weather factors and water restrictions sprung from hydrological droughts in which the incoming flow of Hirmand River into the area under study is cut or decreased remarkably, along with summer winds (winds of 120-days) and severe winter winds are more clear and stronger in intensification of soil erosion and formation of moving sands than other factors.
On the other hand, the results of impressionability level comparison of different contextual-spatial factors in the villages under study demonstrated that sand affects arable lands and water supply networks more than other factors.
However, given that reduction or stop of incoming water flow of Hirmand River into Sistan region over the recent years has caused successive droughts, some factors like drying of Hamoun Wetlands, intensification of environmental dryness, reduction of vegetation and increase of soil erosion along with Sistan’s winds of 120-days have paved the way for increasing of dust storms and movement of sands toward the villages of the region.
Homa Dorostkar Gol Khili, Yadollah Yousefi, Mehdi Ramezanzadeh Lasboyee, Hematollah Roradeh ,
Volume 2, Issue 4 (1-2016)
Volume 2, Issue 4 (1-2016)
Abstract
Natural disasters is one of the main challenges for developing countries, which not only cause death and emotional pain and suffering of survivors, but greatly affecting development. Reduction programs and prevention of disasters, including policies that countries to increase community capacity in disaster, are followed to improve the effects of these disasters. One of the risks that affect Iran, is flooding. Iran has a very high risk of flooding, which in most years, about 70% of annual credit plan is paied to reduce the effects of natural disasters. Floods in recent years has left a lot of damage in many parts of Iran. Because the flood event and can not be prevented, but we can assess the resiliency and vulnerability of risks to reduce the effects of flooding greatly. Planning in disaster management process can reduce the risks of accidents and improve the resilience. Thus, how and by what means we can increase the capacity of society to accept a certain level of risk is very important. In recent years, many researches, focused over concept of resilience and disaster risk reduction policy. This research study area is the Nekarud basin in Mazandaran province. Population growth and unethical uses of Nekarud and natural resources, humans and their facilities, infrastructure and natural resources of the basin are vulnerable. The aim of this study was to evaluate the resiliency and identify strengths and weaknesses in the flood affected villages Nekarud margin is based on random sampling of villages (8 villages) have been affected by floods in recent years, were selected. The research method is descriptive and analytical study of its nature. The aforementioned villages to assess the resilience, the four dimensions of economic, social, and institutional infrastructure based on the location of the axis (DROP) provided by Cutter and his colleagues in 2008, was used. According to the surveys and the results obtained, it can be stated that the model DROP, because of the location-based (geographic), and the integrity of the elections aspects and indicators to measure and assess the resilience of settlements is a good model. The dimensions considered to measure resilience include: economic, social, institutional and infrastructure. After determining the dimensions required components and indicators research, scientific references were identified by the study, questionnaires were prepared. Secondly, the need of the rural sample in the form of a questionnaire, collected and analyzed after coding in SPSS. The findings of the study showed that the settlements are in a different situation in terms of resilience in different dimensions. The economic resilience for the total sample is 8.96. The amount of this variable for Zarandin-e Olya, Zarandin-e Sofla, Abelo and Kuhsarkadeh rural settlements is higher than the average whole.
Seyed Reza Azadeh, Masood Taghvaei,
Volume 4, Issue 3 (9-2017)
Volume 4, Issue 3 (9-2017)
Abstract
The field of natural hazards research has a rich history in geography, appropriately so because it involves conflicts between physical processes and human systems. Natural events occur without direct human effect and endanger his social life. Events that enforce average annual up to 150000 human damages and more than 140 milliard dollars financial damages on counties and especially developing countries. Among all the natural disasters, the earthquake is one of the most serious ones. It brings tremendous economic losses and deaths of people, as well as the enormous effects on the harmonious and continuous development of society. Iran is an event ism country in the world. In this field look at the recent decades earthquakes statistics that reveal average once in every five years.
Gilan province is located in south western of Caspian Sea in mountainous area of Talesh and central Alborz range that endure many earthquakes up today. The most ancient earthquake ever occurred in this area refers to Marlik civilization which is located near Rudbar – Rostam Abad. One of the recent earthquake in the 20th century in this area is Rudbar earthquake in 21 Jun 1990 with magnitude Ms = 7.7 Richter that caused many destruction. In one hand according to complex tectonic of central Alborz and in the other hand locating Gilan in the south west of Caspian sea that demonstrate many seismic activities, it illustrates as a result that this area is one of the active high potential seismic area of Iran.
The current study is aimed at investigating the earthquake vulnerability of rural and urban settlements of Gilan province. To this end, Euclidean distant analysis and raster overlay have been conducted in GIS. To run the procedure, the first step is to calculate distance (pixels in 86 m dimension) between province and active and inactive fault line based on Euclidean analysis distance in Arc Map. The next step is aimed at standardizing the calculated distances using Raster Calculator Command. The, zoning of earthquake vulnerability of Gilan into five zones (based on active/inactive faults) is the primary goal. As a matter of fact, standardization leads to fuzzy maps. Standard score (distance) is calculated by dividing each score by sum of the scores. The next step tries to categorize zoning map and to translate Raster map into vector one in order to calculate the area of each risk category. Finally, overlay of urban and rural layers base on zoning map may help us analyze seismic hazard urban and rural regions of Gilan province.
Results have shown that 40.72 % of total area of Gilan province are in 15 km distance from active fault. Also, 21.51 % of total area of Gilan province are in 15 to 30 km distance from active fault. Additionally, 64.45 % of total area of Gilan province are in less than 8 km distance from inactive fault (Table 1).
Table 1. Seismic hazard zonation according to faults
Gilan province is located in south western of Caspian Sea in mountainous area of Talesh and central Alborz range that endure many earthquakes up today. The most ancient earthquake ever occurred in this area refers to Marlik civilization which is located near Rudbar – Rostam Abad. One of the recent earthquake in the 20th century in this area is Rudbar earthquake in 21 Jun 1990 with magnitude Ms = 7.7 Richter that caused many destruction. In one hand according to complex tectonic of central Alborz and in the other hand locating Gilan in the south west of Caspian sea that demonstrate many seismic activities, it illustrates as a result that this area is one of the active high potential seismic area of Iran.
The current study is aimed at investigating the earthquake vulnerability of rural and urban settlements of Gilan province. To this end, Euclidean distant analysis and raster overlay have been conducted in GIS. To run the procedure, the first step is to calculate distance (pixels in 86 m dimension) between province and active and inactive fault line based on Euclidean analysis distance in Arc Map. The next step is aimed at standardizing the calculated distances using Raster Calculator Command. The, zoning of earthquake vulnerability of Gilan into five zones (based on active/inactive faults) is the primary goal. As a matter of fact, standardization leads to fuzzy maps. Standard score (distance) is calculated by dividing each score by sum of the scores. The next step tries to categorize zoning map and to translate Raster map into vector one in order to calculate the area of each risk category. Finally, overlay of urban and rural layers base on zoning map may help us analyze seismic hazard urban and rural regions of Gilan province.
Results have shown that 40.72 % of total area of Gilan province are in 15 km distance from active fault. Also, 21.51 % of total area of Gilan province are in 15 to 30 km distance from active fault. Additionally, 64.45 % of total area of Gilan province are in less than 8 km distance from inactive fault (Table 1).
Table 1. Seismic hazard zonation according to faults
| Probability of earthquake hazard | Distance to fault lines | Relative area | |||
| Active Faults | Passive Faults | Active Faults | Passive Faults | ||
| Very low risk | 0-20 | 60-76 | 32-42 | 7.29 | 1.42 |
| Low risk | 20-40 | 45-60 | 24-32 | 13.82 | 3.96 |
| Medium risk | 40-60 | 30-45 | 16-24 | 16.66 | 8.13 |
| High risk | 60-80 | 15-30 | 8-16 | 21.51 | 22.04 |
| Very high risk | 80-100 | 0-15 | 0-8 | 40.72 | 64.45 |
| sum | - | 100 | |||
According to seismic hazards due to active faults, 18 cities out of 51 urban regions are severely vulnerable to earthquake. Accordingly, 67.20 % of Gilan urban population are located at high-risk zone. Seismic hazard zoning map based on active faults have indicated that 20 cities are highly vulnerable to earthquake. (Table 2)
Table 2. Investigating the risk of earthquake in urban areas of Guilan province
| Probability of earthquake hazard | urban Settlement | Population (2011) | Relative population frequency (percent) | ||||
| Active Faults | Passive Faults | Active Faults | Passive Faults | Active Faults | Passive Faults | ||
| Very low risk | 0-20 | 3 | 1 | 135846 | 17106 | 1.14 | 9.07 |
| Low risk | 20-40 | 6 | 4 | 86133 | 144021 | 9.62 | 5.75 |
| Medium risk | 40-60 | 10 | 8 | 739095 | 754968 | 50.43 | 49.37 |
| High risk | 60-80 | 14 | 18 | 380908 | 273137 | 18.24 | 25.44 |
| Very high risk | 80-100 | 18 | 20 | 155188 | 307938 | 20.57 | 10.37 |
| sum | 51 | 1497170 | 100 | ||||
Seismic studies on rural settlement of Gilan province have indicated that 1350 rural out of 2925 rural residences are severely vulnerable to earthquake because they are near to active faults. These regions are the habitat of 24.9 % of the total rural population. Zoning map based on inactive faults have shown that 1679 rural regions are vulnerable to earthquake (Table 3).
Table 3. Probability of earthquake hazard in rural settlements
| Probability of earthquake hazard | Rural Settlement | Population (2011) | Relative population frequency (percent) | ||||
| Active Faults | Passive Faults | Active Faults | Passive Faults | Active Faults | Passive Faults | ||
| Very low risk | 0-20 | 162 | 42 | 54240 | 30236 | 5.51 | 3.07 |
| Low risk | 20-40 | 379 | 147 | 183718 | 92018 | 18.68 | 9.35 |
| Medium risk | 40-60 | 481 | 291 | 255412 | 176183 | 25.96 | 17.91 |
| High risk | 60-80 | 553 | 766 | 245392 | 340448 | 24.95 | 34.61 |
| Very high risk | 80-100 | 1350 | 1679 | 244942 | 344819 | 24.90 | 35.05 |
| sum | 2925 | 983704 | 100 | ||||
Studies have claimed that the majority of rural and urban regions of Gilan province are severely earthquake-prone. It is due to geographic and natural features of the mentioned province. To this end, some recommendations are given:
- Meticulous supervision on safety of building from the stage of plan-making to administration which have to be based on engineering principles for earthquake-prone cities including Baresar, Ataqur, Asalem, Haviq, and Roodbar which are next to active faults
- Prevention of formation of suburbs and towns on southern and northern parts of Gilan because these parts are really vulnerable to earthquake
- Prediction of temporary accommodation in central Gilan because this part is less vulnerable to earthquake
- To equip buildings, hospitals, schools, and other buildings located in big cities including Rasht, Bandar-E Anzali, Fuman, and Lahijan with facilities required in case of earthquake
- To hold training courses in rural and urban parts of the mentioned province to make residents prepared for earthquake and for emergency evacuation
- To prioritize reformation of old and historical buildings in Rasht because Rasht is mostly laden with old buildings which are really vulnerable to earthquake
Mrs Masoomeh Niyasti, Mr Seyed Amir Hossein Garakani,
Volume 5, Issue 1 (6-2018)
Volume 5, Issue 1 (6-2018)
Abstract
Study of vulnerability of settlements in rural areas A comparative study of salvage towns and villages in the eastern part of Golestan province
There are important choices to be made after the various accidents and the numerous financial and psychological effects of rural settlements, including decisions on how to intervene in rural settlements and the adoption of reconstruction policies. This intervention is identified as four types of identification, relocation, continuous development, or integration and integration for the reconstruction of damaged or destroyed villages due to natural hazards.Many scholars and scholars believe that among the above models, aggregation and integration have economic advantages in supplying facilities and services. The ruler's insight has led to less attention to its economic, social, physical and environmental implications. It seems that this indifference has led to the implementation and implementation of relocation and integration plans of rural settlements with the change in their vulnerability in the economic, social, physical and environmental dimensions and the development of the vulnerability of affected society Increase against future accidents. Extreme rainfall in the eastern province of Golestan province in August 2005 resulted in two devastating floods, one of the most damaging floods in the country. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Housing Foundation has been providing housing for the affected population and in order to reduce the resettlement of villages due to the occurrence of future floods, the eleven villages in the city of Kalaleh, which had been damaged in recent floods in Golestan Province, were displaced. This research is descriptive-analytic and its data have been collected in two sections of library and field. The statistical population of this study is a collection of residents of the walled city and villagers who have returned to the villages of Chatal, Ghapan Oliya and Sofla. To test the vulnerability in two samples, independent samples t have been used. Comparison of two sample returns in villages Chatal, Gapan Oliya and Sofla with the displacement and aggregation of villages in the recreational city showed that each of the studied samples had weaknesses and strengths in different dimensions of vulnerability. The vulnerability of the Faragi city in the economic dimension, using the average for each of the three villages and the city of recreation (3.18 and 2.89, respectively), shows that the resettlement policy in the area of study has increased the vulnerability, especially in the outskirts of the Faragi city Is. The results of this research in the economic sector are consistent with the results of Firouznia and colleagues (2011) and Stadekelai et al. (1394). Regarding the role of resettlement in social vulnerability after examining the criteria, the average for each of the three villages and the Faragi city (3.21 and 2.77 respectively) shows that the resettlement policy from the social perspective in the scope of the study increases the level of vulnerability especially in the Faragi city. The results of this research in the social section are consistent with the results of Montazarian (2011), Mohammadi, Professor Kalayeh et al. (1394), Zaharan et al. (2011), Peik et al. (2014) and Navara et al. (2013). In the physical dimension of the environment, it can be said that resettlement in general has reduced the level of vulnerability and improved life indicators in the Faragi city. The average for each of the three villages and the Faragi city (2.89 and 3.57, respectively) shows that the resettlement policy from the physical-environmental perspective in the study area has reduced the amount of vulnerability in the outskirts of the Faragi city to the three villages. On the other hand, the zoning of physical-permafrost
range shows that although the physical injuries of the outskirts of the Faragi city are lower than the three villages, but considering the location of the Pishkamar's site in the zone with moderate damage, the physical-peripheral city of leisure also vulnerable. In most post-traumatic reconstruction programs, the policy of removing the entire or part of the settlement as a suitable technical solution to reduce the vulnerability and safety of phenomena such as floods, landslides and so on Considered
. However, the review of various experiences suggests that displacement of settlements, although effective in reducing physical morbidity, is mainly due to numerous social and economic consequences. The displacement and consolidation of 11 villages of Golestan province in the post-flood Pishkamar site of 1384 were unsuccessful due to the lack of planning and designing, with macroeconomic and social costs, in reducing the dimensions of vulnerability of a settlement, including social and economic. This has led to the return of villagers to their old villages. The quantitative results of this research also confirm the hypothesis that increasing the migration to cities, returning to old villages, ethnic conflicts, reducing production levels, increasing bank debt and the prevalence of insecurity in the outskirts of the Faragi city are one of the most important factors in increasing the vulnerability in the social and economic dimensions of the study area. The investigations indicate an increase in the amount of vulnerability in recreational areas in terms of economic and social dimensions and reducing its physical-environmental vulnerability to three villages. Since reducing the vulnerability of settlements is subject
to control and reduction of damage and damage in all aspects, it seems that the
reconstruction of rural settlements after the flood of 2005 in Golestan province has been
effective in increasing the vulnerability of this area.
Keywords: Vulnerability, Relocation, Resettlement, Faragi city, Golestan Province.
There are important choices to be made after the various accidents and the numerous financial and psychological effects of rural settlements, including decisions on how to intervene in rural settlements and the adoption of reconstruction policies. This intervention is identified as four types of identification, relocation, continuous development, or integration and integration for the reconstruction of damaged or destroyed villages due to natural hazards.Many scholars and scholars believe that among the above models, aggregation and integration have economic advantages in supplying facilities and services. The ruler's insight has led to less attention to its economic, social, physical and environmental implications. It seems that this indifference has led to the implementation and implementation of relocation and integration plans of rural settlements with the change in their vulnerability in the economic, social, physical and environmental dimensions and the development of the vulnerability of affected society Increase against future accidents. Extreme rainfall in the eastern province of Golestan province in August 2005 resulted in two devastating floods, one of the most damaging floods in the country. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Housing Foundation has been providing housing for the affected population and in order to reduce the resettlement of villages due to the occurrence of future floods, the eleven villages in the city of Kalaleh, which had been damaged in recent floods in Golestan Province, were displaced. This research is descriptive-analytic and its data have been collected in two sections of library and field. The statistical population of this study is a collection of residents of the walled city and villagers who have returned to the villages of Chatal, Ghapan Oliya and Sofla. To test the vulnerability in two samples, independent samples t have been used. Comparison of two sample returns in villages Chatal, Gapan Oliya and Sofla with the displacement and aggregation of villages in the recreational city showed that each of the studied samples had weaknesses and strengths in different dimensions of vulnerability. The vulnerability of the Faragi city in the economic dimension, using the average for each of the three villages and the city of recreation (3.18 and 2.89, respectively), shows that the resettlement policy in the area of study has increased the vulnerability, especially in the outskirts of the Faragi city Is. The results of this research in the economic sector are consistent with the results of Firouznia and colleagues (2011) and Stadekelai et al. (1394). Regarding the role of resettlement in social vulnerability after examining the criteria, the average for each of the three villages and the Faragi city (3.21 and 2.77 respectively) shows that the resettlement policy from the social perspective in the scope of the study increases the level of vulnerability especially in the Faragi city. The results of this research in the social section are consistent with the results of Montazarian (2011), Mohammadi, Professor Kalayeh et al. (1394), Zaharan et al. (2011), Peik et al. (2014) and Navara et al. (2013). In the physical dimension of the environment, it can be said that resettlement in general has reduced the level of vulnerability and improved life indicators in the Faragi city. The average for each of the three villages and the Faragi city (2.89 and 3.57, respectively) shows that the resettlement policy from the physical-environmental perspective in the study area has reduced the amount of vulnerability in the outskirts of the Faragi city to the three villages. On the other hand, the zoning of physical-permafrost
range shows that although the physical injuries of the outskirts of the Faragi city are lower than the three villages, but considering the location of the Pishkamar's site in the zone with moderate damage, the physical-peripheral city of leisure also vulnerable. In most post-traumatic reconstruction programs, the policy of removing the entire or part of the settlement as a suitable technical solution to reduce the vulnerability and safety of phenomena such as floods, landslides and so on Considered
. However, the review of various experiences suggests that displacement of settlements, although effective in reducing physical morbidity, is mainly due to numerous social and economic consequences. The displacement and consolidation of 11 villages of Golestan province in the post-flood Pishkamar site of 1384 were unsuccessful due to the lack of planning and designing, with macroeconomic and social costs, in reducing the dimensions of vulnerability of a settlement, including social and economic. This has led to the return of villagers to their old villages. The quantitative results of this research also confirm the hypothesis that increasing the migration to cities, returning to old villages, ethnic conflicts, reducing production levels, increasing bank debt and the prevalence of insecurity in the outskirts of the Faragi city are one of the most important factors in increasing the vulnerability in the social and economic dimensions of the study area. The investigations indicate an increase in the amount of vulnerability in recreational areas in terms of economic and social dimensions and reducing its physical-environmental vulnerability to three villages. Since reducing the vulnerability of settlements is subject
to control and reduction of damage and damage in all aspects, it seems that the
reconstruction of rural settlements after the flood of 2005 in Golestan province has been
effective in increasing the vulnerability of this area.
Keywords: Vulnerability, Relocation, Resettlement, Faragi city, Golestan Province.
Mr Seyed Ali Badri, Mr Hossain Karimzadeh, Mis. Sima Saadi, Mis Nasrin Kazemi,
Volume 6, Issue 1 (5-2019)
Volume 6, Issue 1 (5-2019)
Abstract
Analysis of Rural Settlements Resilience against Earthquake
Case Study: Marivan County
Iran is a seismic prone country located over the Himalayan-Alpine seismic belt. Striking earthquakes during the past years and decades are strong proofs for vulnerability of rural areas in this country; loss of lives, damage to buildings, even demolishing villages have been experienced in Iran rural areas. All these fatal effects are evidences to make villages more resilience and strengthen their structures because in the case of vulnerable structures, earthquake can be tremendously destructive. Therefore, losses of live and property can be avoided through making resilience rural social, economic and physical structure like construction of buildings that sway rather than break under the stress of an earthquake. Making villages resilience are directly related to saving rural residents lives and their property. Briefly, reaching or maintaining rural areas capacities to an acceptable level are the main purpose of this study by analyzing mentioned structures. This study conducted in Marivan rural settlements which exposed to earthquake.
According to Morgan Table, 310 samples responded to the questionnaires. The samples of this study were selected by chance from 6 districts and 18 villages. The main methods for analysis of collected data were Dimatel, ANP and Statictical analysis by SPSS. The results of ANP and Dimatel analyses led to the determination of relation among the factors. It should be noted we used Delfi method for this part. Moreover, for the final part ANOVA analysis is used by the authors.
All around the world, countries have different approaches to deal with hazards in order to mitigate fatal affects. In fact, the goal of all management practices is to reduce hazard impacts. Iran faces a variety of hazards because of placing in a special geographical position; in this regard earthquake is the most important one. Resiliency approach can improve the flexibility of rural settlements through strengthen the capabilities of them and reduce their vulnerability. In the present study, analysis of rural settlements resilience against earthquake has been investigated. The results show that the resiliency is lower than the average in the studied villages. Also, there was a significant difference among the studied villages in terms of the resiliency against earthquake. The findings are consistent with the results of Nouri and Sepahvand in 2016 and Rezaei et al., in 2014.
Considering the analysis of data and ANP analysis of the internal and external factors in a general and separate way, the studied villages of Marivan city can be considered as non-resilience structures; in this regard, the most important reason is the inappropriate condition in the internal factors of rural settlements. The poor quality of construction and the inadequate structure of buildings must be considered, as well. Another obvious reason is the existence of eroded texture in this area. According to external factors, relief does not cover rural areas and led to reduce the resilience of rural settlements. Investigating the resilience of rural settlements based on external factors not only indicates the inappropriate situation of rural structure in this analysis, but also it proves a more favorable situation than internal factors. The findings show that structure and the amount of structure confinement in decrease the tissue texture of rural settlements play a profound role; changing these factors requires a long time and long-term planning. Regarding the post hoc test, variance analysis suggests the highest resiliency in Zarivar with an average of 2.99 and the lowest survival rate in KhavumirAbad rural district with an average of 1.87. Moreover, according to the one-sample T-Test, the socio-cultural dimension with a mean of 3.05 has the best situation in terms of resiliency against earthquake in the studied villages. For improving resiliency in the studied villages, authors’ suggests are including: managing and organizing preparation measures and response along with effective actions to reduce the risks of earthquake and providing a crisis management department; strengthen scientific and research studies to identify and reduce the risks; applying the rules to retrofit the buildings and increasing the safety factors in new construction; mapping the vulnerabilities in rural areas; increasing people participation and preparing them to deal with an emergency situation caused by an earthquake.
Keywords: Resiliency, Rural Settlements, Earthquake, Marivan County
Dr Moslem Savari, , , ,
Volume 6, Issue 2 (9-2019)
Volume 6, Issue 2 (9-2019)
Abstract
Modeling Drought Effects on Sustainable Livelihoods of Small Scale Farmers in Rural Settlements of Kurdistan Province
1. Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, Khuzestan Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University
2. Professor at Department of Agricultural Management and Development at University of Tehran
3. Professor at Department of Agricultural Management and Development at University of Tehran
4. Professor at Department of Agricultural Management and Development at University of Tehran
Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change are local and context-specific, though connected to complex processes at multiple temporal and spatial scales. As such, there is a growing awareness that place-based studies of current and past responses to climatic stress can shed light on the capacity of a given system to respond to future climate change. There is also a growing appreciation of the importance of institutions—formal and informal—in shaping adaptation strategies and mediating the adaptive capacity of households and communities. While rural resource-dependent communities have historically coped with climatic fluctuations, whether such coping mechanisms are still successful today, and will be in the future, depends on the structure of supporting institutions and the way in which they mediate access to entitlements. Indeed, most social–ecological systems have undergone dramatic change in the last century due to climatic, landscape, and institutional shifts. Because coping mechanisms are developed in relation to particular landscapes, livelihoods, and institutions, social and ecological changes have altered relations across these elements, impacting the effectiveness of particular coping strategies. For instance, pastoralists have historically deployed a suite of coping mechanisms in response to the highly variable climate of semi-arid and arid landscapes. Yet, these capacities may be increasingly compromised in the rangelands of East Africa due to increasing exposure to climate extremes, such as flood and drought and shifting institutional environments. The mechanisms that pastoralists in East Africa historically utilized to cope with climate variability were part of a tightly coupled system where livelihoods, institutions, and landscapes were mutually reinforcing. Pastoralists’ livelihoods were co-produced with a savanna mosaic landscape managed as a common property system by formal and informal customary institutions.
Farmers frequently cope with risks due to the uncertainty of climatic conditions .Population growth, changes in agricultural policies, environmental regulations and the degradation of natural resources such as soil and water also present farmers with numerous challenges. Although farmers have experience in coping with a certain degree of uncertainty, increased climate variability and changes may cause severe problems. Drought in particular is a climatic disaster that creates substantial costs for farmers and affects their agricultural systems extensively. Drought is the most complex of all natural hazards . making the arid and semi-arid regions of the world vulnerable. Although drought has not been well documented , the resource-dependent sectors such as agriculture are the most vulnerable to the impact of this phenomenon. A review of the long-term annual precipitation trends indicated that drought had a worldwide return frequency of every 20e30 years . However, in the last 50 years, some countries such as Iran and Bangladesh have experienced approximately 27 and 19 drought events, respectively. Therefore, for arid and semiarid regions, drought is a recurrent feature that could lead to the loss of crop production, food shortages and starvation if not managed appropriately. According todrought impacts could be managed at macro (national), mesa (local) and micro (village and household) levels. However, the micro-level management (i.e., what the farmers do in response to drought) is of great importance. A review of the studies of farmers’ decision-making in response to climate variability revealed that most research has focused on the decision event and not on the entire process.
The main Purpose of this study was to modeling drought effects drought effects on sustainable livelihoods of small scale farmers in rural settlements. Statistical population of this study consisted of all Small-Scale Farming in Kurdistan province. Using Kerjcie & Morgan sampling table, 402 person were selected as the sample using stratified proportional sampling method. The instrument of the study was a questionnaire which its validity was confirmed by a Content validity and construct validity and its reliability was established by calculating Chronbach's Alpha and Combined reliability Coefficient (α>0.7).
The results of Man- Kendall test showed that the level of aquatic and dry crops, along with the amount of crop production, has increased over time but there is no statistically significant effect on dry production. Also, the results showed that in the economic aspect, the greatest impact on distribution of income and living expenses, in the social dimension, on location affiliation and security and social welfare, the environmental dimension has had an impact on environmental pollution and land resources and on institutional aspects more on the cooperation and participation of the people.
In addition, the results of structural equation modeling showed that drought had the most impact on sustainability livelihood dimensions, respectively, on social, environmental, economic and institutional dimensions.
Keywords
Sustainable livelihood, drought, small scale farmers, rural settlements, Kurdistan province
Farhad Azizpour, Vahid Riahi, Somayeh Azizi,
Volume 7, Issue 4 (2-2021)
Volume 7, Issue 4 (2-2021)
Abstract
Abstract
As information about disease and mortality grows, so do appropriate methods for analyzing this type of data that meet different needs. One of these methods is spatial analysis of the disease, which considers its geographical distribution along with other risk factors. The present study is an attempt to depict the spatial pattern of coronary heart disease distribution in rural settlements of Damavand and to explain the factors affecting the spatial distribution of this disease in the study area. Spatial analysis of corona prevalence using spatial statistics analysis methods can extract and analyze the spatial patterns governing the geographical distribution of this disease. For this purpose, the present study seeks to answer the following questions:
As information about disease and mortality grows, so do appropriate methods for analyzing this type of data that meet different needs. One of these methods is spatial analysis of the disease, which considers its geographical distribution along with other risk factors. The present study is an attempt to depict the spatial pattern of coronary heart disease distribution in rural settlements of Damavand and to explain the factors affecting the spatial distribution of this disease in the study area. Spatial analysis of corona prevalence using spatial statistics analysis methods can extract and analyze the spatial patterns governing the geographical distribution of this disease. For this purpose, the present study seeks to answer the following questions:
- What pattern does the spatial distribution of coronary heart disease in the rural area of Damavand city follow?
- What factors have influenced this spatial distribution pattern?
Due to the nature of the subject, the present study is of the combined type and in terms of applied results. The method of data collection is based on documentary-library and survey-field data. Initially, the statistics of the number of patients with coronary artery from the beginning of April 2020 to the end of July 2020 were collected by referring to Damavand health center. Then spatial analysis is applied to them. In order to study the spatial pattern of corona disease distribution and to recognize its non-random structure from various statistical indicators such as mean, percentage, hot spot analysis and also to properly understand the pattern of hot spot clusters by measuring directional geographical distribution (standard ellipse) in GIS software environment. Used. After describing the structure and pattern of dispersions, one should look for the cause and reasons of dispersions. Thus, in field surveys, after determining the number of patients with coronary artery disease, snowball interviews were conducted with 23 residents of Damavand city in order to identify and analyze the factors affecting the spatial distribution pattern of coronary heart disease in this city. After conducting the interviews and collecting the data, in order to analyze them, the underlying theory in the Maxiquida software environment was used. Pearson correlation coefficient was used to determine the relationship between the factors affecting the prevalence of the disease in the study area as independent variables with coronary heart disease as a dependent variable in SPSS environment. Then, Moran's spatial autocorrelation analysis model was used to know the type of distribution pattern of the identified factors.
This part of the findings is divided into two parts according to the questions raised in the research: Spatial distribution pattern of coronary heart disease in rural areas of Damavand city Out of a total of 67 villages, 21 rural points (31.34%) and 1 rural point (1.49%), respectively, have the lowest and highest number of patients with coronary heart disease. Based on the analysis of clusters of hot spots and elliptical curve of geographical distribution, most hot spots are located in the west and northwest of the city and the villages located in these spots with low health centers have almost high population density that are adjacent to each other and They are close to the cities and on the main road. Most of the cold spots are located in the east and southeast of the region.
Factors affecting the distribution pattern of coronary heart disease in rural areas of Damavand city After determining the spatial pattern of corona disease distribution in the rural area of Damavand city, the effective factors in the spatial distribution pattern of this disease should be identified and analyzed. These factors include: Weak official information on coronary heart disease; Weak local community attention to the principles of health exposure to corona risk; Simplifying the risk of coronary heart disease; Short geographical distance between settlements; High level of inter-residential interactions; Weakness in providing health services. Pearson correlation coefficient was used to determine the relationship between the factors affecting the prevalence of the disease in the study area as independent variables with coronary heart disease as a dependent
This part of the findings is divided into two parts according to the questions raised in the research: Spatial distribution pattern of coronary heart disease in rural areas of Damavand city Out of a total of 67 villages, 21 rural points (31.34%) and 1 rural point (1.49%), respectively, have the lowest and highest number of patients with coronary heart disease. Based on the analysis of clusters of hot spots and elliptical curve of geographical distribution, most hot spots are located in the west and northwest of the city and the villages located in these spots with low health centers have almost high population density that are adjacent to each other and They are close to the cities and on the main road. Most of the cold spots are located in the east and southeast of the region.
Factors affecting the distribution pattern of coronary heart disease in rural areas of Damavand city After determining the spatial pattern of corona disease distribution in the rural area of Damavand city, the effective factors in the spatial distribution pattern of this disease should be identified and analyzed. These factors include: Weak official information on coronary heart disease; Weak local community attention to the principles of health exposure to corona risk; Simplifying the risk of coronary heart disease; Short geographical distance between settlements; High level of inter-residential interactions; Weakness in providing health services. Pearson correlation coefficient was used to determine the relationship between the factors affecting the prevalence of the disease in the study area as independent variables with coronary heart disease as a dependent
Manijeh Ahmadi, Mohsen Kalantari, Mostafa Mohammadi,
Volume 9, Issue 1 (5-2022)
Volume 9, Issue 1 (5-2022)
Abstract
Introductions
Today, various social ills such as addiction, cultural issues and problems have been added to the issues raised in the past and require extensive studies and planning in this area to preserve the small human capital of rural settlements and be used for sustainable rural development. The present study has spatially analyzed the effective factors for drug addiction and abuse. Today, various social ills such as addiction, cultural issues and problems have been added to the issues raised in the past and require extensive studies and planning in this area to preserve the small human capital of rural settlements and be used for sustainable rural development. In recent years, drug abuse has increased worldwide, so that now all countries in the world are incurring significant costs as a result of the damage caused by this phenomenon. Drug abuse has incurred enormous social and economic costs through its devastating effects on human health and the increase in crime and mortality in society, and as a result has become a major threat to societies. There is no specific agreement on the root causes of drug abuse, so that the factors associated with it are numerous and varied, including individual contexts, family characteristics, and social and environmental factors. The present study has spatially analyzed the effective factors for drug addiction and abuse.
Research Method
The type of research is applied and the nature of the research is descriptive-analytical. Independent variables in this study are physical and demographic factors in the study village. The dependent variable of this study is the situation of addiction and drug abuse in Dizajabad village. The validity of the research indicators was reviewed and modified by the professors and the reliability value was calculated based on Cronbach's alpha of 0.784. The statistical population of the present study is villages at risk of addiction and drug abuse. This village was identified through interviews with law enforcement experts and statistics available in this organization as well as unofficial statistics. The number of these villages includes four villages (Sayan (Mahdieh town), Dizajabad, NoghtehBandi and Choreh Nab) which were selected as a sample village using the lottery method of Dizajabad village. The study population in Dizajabad village includes people who are addicted to drugs and abuse in Dizajabad village, which have been collected through irregular interviews, as well as for comparison and assessment between addicts and other people. The questionnaire was completed in all residential units where people lived and the Cochran's formula was used for accurate sampling.
The baseline map was used to perform the analyzes. Using Cochran's formula, 115 residential units belonging to people with addiction and drug abuse were selected as a sample. In order to analyze descriptive data from Excel software and also for correlation between physical characteristics, population of people with addiction and drug abuse, Spss software and Human Whitney and two-group T tests were used in Arc Gis / Arc map environment. Hot Spot Analysis, kernel density estimation and standard deviation ellipse tests were used.
Interpretation of results
Findings show that the spatial distribution of addiction and drug abuse in Dizajabad village is not evenly distributed and are mostly concentrated in the northwest and southeast, which are in these two areas due to the high density of residential units. . According to the tests of hot spots of addiction and according to the studied items, the two southeastern and northwestern parts of the village have hot spots and the standard deviation ellipse in this map indicates that its direction is northwest, southeast. This direction is influenced by the shape of the village. The pattern of drug distribution in the village also indicates that it is concentrated in two parts, northwest and southeast. The median center indicates that the southern and to some extent the southeastern part are more addicted than the other parts. The reason for the increase in the points of addiction and abuse in the two mentioned parts is the density of the residential unit and the existence of a network of winding and unbalanced passages, especially in the southeastern part. Centers of addiction and drug abuse by kernel density estimation method show that the two parts of the northwest and southeast of the village are more affected by drug addiction and abuse.
Keywords: Spatial distribution, Drugs, Addiction, Suburban villages, Zanjan Township
Sorayya Ebrahimi, Abdolreza Rahmanye Fazli, Farhad Azizpour,
Volume 9, Issue 3 (12-2022)
Volume 9, Issue 3 (12-2022)
Abstract
Factors affecting the adaptation of rural settlements to the water crisis of Lake Urmia Case study: Miandoab County
Problem statement
In recent years, Lake Urmia, the largest lake in Iran, has faced severe water shortages, which has raised concerns in terms of economic, social and environmental consequences in the surrounding communities, especially in rural areas. Livelihood dependence of rural community stakeholders, to the natural resources and agricultural products have caused the harmful effects of drying Urmia Lake to be more visible. The drying up of Lake Urmia is not limited to this lake, but human communities have also suffered a lot from their sphere of influence. Due to the human effects of the drying of Lake Urmia, it is necessary to analyze the effects of this phenomenon from a human perspective in research. Identifying the adaptive capacity of rural community stakeholders makes it possible to adopt appropriate management strategies to reduce the damage caused by lake drying. Therefore, despite the importance of the subject of this research, it seeks to study the factors and forces affecting the adaptation capacity of rural settlements in the face of the drying crisis of Lake Urmia in the city of Miandoab and so on.
Research Methodology
In terms of methodology, strategy and design, the present study is a combination of (mixed), sequential and explanatory exploratory, respectively. In this study, for a detailed study of community mentalities, a discourse on effective factors to increase the adaptive capacity of rural settlements in the face of drying or water retreat of Lake Urmia, the combined method of (Q) was selected. The research discourse community included local managers (governorate experts, heads and employees of government departments, districts, rural districts and Islamic councils) as well as local experts in the sample villages of Miandoab city. Targeted sampling method (snowball) was used to select the statistical sample. Q statements were also compiled using first-hand sources (expert opinions, local managers, field observations, etc.) and codified sources (books, articles, publications, etc.) using the library and field methods. The Q questionnaire was also used to assess the attitude of experts. In order to analyze the data of the Q (Q) method matrices, heuristic factor analysis based on the individual method (Stanfson method) was used.
Description and interpretation of results
In reviewing the findings of the exploratory factor analysis model with KMO criterion, Bartlett test confirmed the sufficient number of samples and its appropriateness for the research. To investigate the most important influencing factors, the specific value and percentage of variance were calculated and the number of factors was determined by pebble diagram and Kaiser Guttman criterion. The results showed that the most important factors and forces affecting the increase of adaptation capacity to the drying of Lake Urmia in the sample villages of Miandoab are: 1) Increasing economic capital and the use of natural resources, 2) Increasing social capital and investment, 3) Developing infrastructure facilities and improving the skills of villagers, 4) Economic diversification and improving rural management .. Among these factors, the first factor with a specific value of 5.40 and a percentage of variance of 24.55 was recognized as the most important factor and effective force in increasing the adaptation capacity of the studied villages against the drying of Lake Urmia. Thus, economic and natural factors, as the most important assets of the villagers, are endangered at any time by the drying up and retreat of the water of Lake Urmia and have a direct impact on the livelihood of the villagers.
Keywords: Adaptation capacity, Lake Harumiyeh, Miandoab County.
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