Journal of Spatial Analysis

Environmental hazards are considered as one of the main obstacles for achieving sustainable human settlements development (particularly in rural areas). Today, with a new look at crisis management, using all managerial, organizational and planning accomplishments before the crisis, is an essential and rational concern. Rural settlements of the country along with cities always are threatened by a variety of environmental hazards, but what makes these spaces different from the cities is the high-intensity of vulnerability due to its physical decay texture. In this regard, one of the key elements in confronting the possible crisis that must be taken into account is the crisis management bases in which all prevention, preparedness and response measures, including disaster relief, temporary accommodation for the injured, etc. is provided and minimizes the consequences of potential crisis. Being located in the Kahrizak fault zone and the placement of hazardous industries in this region, is the main reason for selecting Kahrizak district as a study area in this research.    To achieve goals of constructing crisis management bases which indeed is the tactic ability of crisis management system (CMS), it is required to set the site selection criteria and standards for constructing them in such a way that provide more operational activities and develop the level of their impacts. In this regard, in the first step, the final criteria for site selection of crisis management base were selected after reviewing previous studies. Then, after surveying the experts and also the localization of criteria on the basis of area condition, seventeen final criteria were determined. For quantitative criteria, data were collected through organizations and reference centers and for a single qualitative criterion (cultural convergence), the questionnaire instrument used in gathering data. After collecting data using library and field methods, a combination of two models: fuzzy logic and hierarchical analysis process (AHP) applied for optimal location of crisis management base.    To determine the impact level of each criterion in the site selection process in two above-mentioned models, the standards for each of the seventeen criteria was determined with the help of combination method. The standards of some of the criteria determined using the standards in related organizations and some other standards proposed by experts and also through the localization by the researcher. Afterward, initially fuzzy standardized common scale maps produced from all information layers in a raster format. Then selected criteria by experts in the format of AHP model were compared with each other through pairwise comparison method. As a result of this comparison, the weight of criteria was determined which indicates the preference degree of each criterion over the others. At last, all standardized (fuzzified) layers multiplied in each of the final weight resulting from Analytical Hierarchy Model and in total converted into weighted fuzzy layers. In the next step, following the process of fuzzy model, fuzzy addition and multiplication operators were applied on output layers. Finally, to modify the layer resulting from fuzzy addition and multiplication, the Gamma operator was used. As such, after producing layers of different fuzzy gammas, essential assessment was conducted for selecting appropriate and ideal gamma. In order to do this, produced layers of each fuzzy gammas were compared with the study area for optimal location and the establishment of crisis management base. Since the gamma 0.9 had the most conformity to suitable zone in the layers of study area, it was selected as the appropriate gamma. However, to ensure the selected location, field study was conducted.     According to the research findings, the following conclusions were obtained: Site selection criteria for rural crisis management base not only has an environmental essence (built and natural), but socio –economic criteria are important as well Effective criteria for site selection of rural crisis management base, affected by regional and local requirements are not the same. Localization of criteria is a necessity that should be considered in site selection. Standards based on site selection criteria depending on the type of services, goals and location at multiple spatial levels (regional, local, urban and rural) is different: in the other words one size does not fit all Site selection is not only based on the location within overlaying information layers by using the models, but the final choice is done after field evaluation and visit.

In advance crisis management of natural disasters, particularly earthquakes in urban areas is one of the necessities of urban planning. However, nowadays with the help of technology we can determine the risk of crisis in the urban areas and settlements. Due to population growth and increasing urbanization, the occurrence of natural disasters such as earthquake can cause terrible disasters in the cities. The need to reduce the vulnerability of the cities is one of the main objectives of physical planning of urban areas and city designing. The city of Kashmar in one of Iran's earthquake-prone areas (due to its adjacency to the Lut fault)  has  witnessed the sever destruction from  the September 25, 1903 earthquake (with a magnitude MS= 5/9) and Torbat Haidariye earthquake on 25 May 1923 (a magnitude MS= 5/8). It is very important to identifying vulnerable areas to earthquakes in advance. Accordingly the objective of this study is to identify the vulnerability of urban areas of  Kashmar city to the earthquake by using VIKOR model of urban planning. The vulnerability of the city was computed on several parameters among which the population density is the most important one.

     In order to carry out the research eleven population and other indices were used. These indices are as follows:

1. Building Materials;
2.  The quality of the building;
3. Old buildings;
4. Number of floors;
5. The materials of facades of building;
6. Compatibility of land uses;
7. Access to network passages;
8. Distance from the main fault;
9. The building density;
10. Numbers of population; and
11.   Relief and rescue centers.

 By using the VIKOR ranking model the vulnerability of the urban areas of the city was identified and classified. The correlation between the city vulnerability and each of these indices was calculated. The impact of the indices on the city vulnerability was calculated according to the AHP model.

      The results of the study showed that the zone 3 had the highest and the zone 8 had the lowest physical vulnerability in the model. Based on the results of the Spearman correlation, the impact of the population on the vulnerability was about .5866 which is relatively noteworthy.  This means that highest degree of vulnerability can occur in very populated areas of the city. All of the city was regionalized according to the degree of vulnerability to earthquake.

The lack of amenities and facilities such as health centers, fire stations, building materials and weak areas within the city will increase the losses and casualties. It is noteworthy that comprehensive city planning in the future must improve and the needed facilities should be provided. In addition providing services to the residents, especially in critical times after the earthquake should be provided.

Nowadays, the adaptation of urban crisis management with  urban development plans is considered as an efficient way of cutting back on damages and it is essential to predict economic and physical susceptibility of families and communities. Therefore, considering the urban crisis index can play a significant role in urban planning. Tehran city thanks to geographic location, climate conditions and geological conditions is among risky cities so that the presence of seismic faults has made this city potentially seismic and in need of comprehensive crisis management; it needs to be confirmed that despite the earthquake potential in the region and the quality of the buildings especially in old and organic texture and other parameters such as access network and buildings and skeletal disorder the occurrence of a large scale earthquake and other natural disasters would be very catastrophic. For this purpose and given the high susceptibility of the region such as the impression by the North and South Rey fault, hazardous industries and fundamental establishments on the one hand and the presence of worn-out texture on the other hand were the reasons behind choosing this region to do the research.

     This research is descriptive-analytic in terms of data collection and practical concerning the function. The location of study is 20^th municipal district of Tehran. The area is about 23 square kilometer and by including the range  about 200 square kilometers. The research population consists of 500 experts and administrators engaged in preparation and practice of detailed municipal plan of Tehran city and crisis management organization of Tehran city. The research mass was selected at 217 persons by the use of Cochran’s formula. The sampling method was random classification method. Data collection instrument was the use of author-prepared questionnaire which consisted of four parts. Measurement instrument validity by facial method and its reliability was examined using  Chronbach Alpha. Therefore, after providing the required acceptable reliability among 20 persons of the subjects the personal attendance method of distribution was applied.

     The research findings show that among research variables, locating crisis management uses within detailed plans received more attention (Mean:82/36) and the knowledge of crisis management within detailed plan management process received less attention (Mean: 24/08). Also the study of distribution indices using  standard error deviation and variance reveals that the type of responses to the variable of attention to risky use policies (standard deviation: 4/08) has low distribution and attention to crisis management uses (8/49) has high distribution. For ranking variable conditions Freedman test was implemented. The results obtained from this test showed that the variable of attention to crisis management uses with the mean of 3/81 ranked first and attention to crisis management knowledge within detailed management process with the rank mean of 1/00 stands fourth on the list. The obtained results from the Pearson test also show that among all variables there is a significant relation with a confidence level of 99% and the correlation among them was  positive. Also the highest correlation coefficient was attention to the crisis management uses and attention to crisis management knowledge at the rate of 0/898 and the least correlation is about the relation between the variable of attention to knowledge of crisis management and the reflection of crisis management indexes on detailed project plans at the rate of 0/423.

     Considering the obtained results can conclude  that crisis management indexes through the process of preparation, approval and the administration of detailed projects of Tehran city and 20^th municipal district have not been attended sufficiently. For instance, skeletal features determination and operational properties at each urban scale were given the rate of susceptibility and the natural place limitations to enhance escape possibilities and people refuge (apposite building type, low building density, use of paths as the getaway and refuge spaces etc.) have not been estimated and their impacts have not been included in development plans.

     Also neighborhood was expected to be observed in urban lands use determination and avoid incongruous uses next to each other and provide quick exit but such cases have not been attended in detailed Tehran city project and 20^th municipal district or that the intended issues have been briefly listed and practically had no use in administration stage. In fact, the bad condition of the skeletal elements location and inapposite uses of the urban lands, deficient urban network, compact urban texture high urban density, improper location of fundamental establishments and shortage and improper distribution of urban open spaces etc. which have critical role in boosting up the rate of inflicted damages to Tehran city against crisis on the basis of the experts’ vantage point has received insufficient attention and while discussing the issue there is no coordination among related organizations concerning a serious attention to such indexes.

Most of the large cities in developing countries have faced with the problem of informal settlements. The formation and growth of these settlements for reasons such as rapid and outside the customs building construction are the threatening issue for their communities. Informal settlements are areas that often shaped and expanded in major and middle cities of the Iran’s cities including the city of Parsabad. During the last decades, the rapid growth of urbanization and the lack of appropriate planning for low-income families housing leads to the formation of the urban informal settlements in most cities of the Iran. In most cases, these settlements have a structural and demographic dense texture. The structural texture of these settlements is often fine aggregate, impermeable, and unstable. In times of crisis, the possibilities of human and material losses to them are high.

Environmental hazards such as earthquakes are a serious threat to these settlements. However, these hazards in most developing countries, due to the unavailability and lack of preventive actions, end to the crisis. We cannot prevent earthquakes. But we can reduce the losses and damages caused by the earthquakes. Remove of the disaster is impossible, but it is possible to reduce the damage caused by the disaster. One of the most important ways to reduce the risk of earthquakes is preparation to deal with earthquakes. Preparation means having previous programs and plans.

     Iran is one of the countries where earthquakes always happen. Because Iran located in the world's earthquake belt, each year on average about 1,000 earthquakes happening in Iran. Ardebil and Pars-Abad city, located in an area that the possibility of earthquakes shakings in these areas, is more. The Zire Nahre Torab Neighborhood is one of the Parsabad city’s informal settlements that located in the northwest of the city. Regarding the possibility of an earthquake in the city of Pars Abad, identification and assessment the vulnerability of the neighborhood during an earthquake, is essential. Therefore, identifying and assessing the vulnerability, especially in the poor neighborhoods to offer strategies for dealing with the injuries, is essential. The aim of this study is assessing vulnerability of the informal settlements during an earthquake by using spatial data and GIS. This study, have been prepared in fifth main parts including: introduction and background, methodology and presentation of case study, theoretical framework, analysis and conclusions.  

This research in terms of the nature is practical and is descriptive and in terms of the method is analytical. Three methods including library, documentary and survey have been used for data collection. In the first phase, data and base maps were extracted from documents and reports of projects such as city comprehensive and detailed plans. Also, in this phase of the study data were updated. In the second phase, the problem, questions and research objectives were defined. In the third phase, the 3 criteria and 12 sub-criteria based on research literature and according to available data were selected. In the fourth phase, after preparation of databases related to each of the criteria in GIS, input layers were prepared for each of them. In the fifth step, the method of network analysis process (ANP) was used to determine the significance of criteria. In the sixth phase, the weighted overlay index (WOI) was used for combining output layers.

The results of this study show that more than 80% of neighborhood buildings are vulnerable against the risk of a possible earthquake. Also, research findings suggest that physical characteristics such as building structure, quality and age of the buildings will have the greatest role in determining the neighborhood buildings vulnerability level. Doing activities such as resisting buildings, improving roads, locating facilities in appropriate places, training and informing citizens to prevent a crisis caused by the possible earthquakes, is essential. Other recommendations are listed in below:

1. Identifying vulnerable buildings
2. The use of GIS in the management of settlements
3. Preparations cities, to deal with urban hazards
4. Empowering citizens to deal with environmental hazards
5. Action to reduce earthquake risk
6. Civil engineering Renovation of buildings
7. New practices in the urban construction
8. Equip cities with facilities and relief supplies.
9. The use of specialists in urban planning.
10. Conducting workshops on urban resilience.