fa اثر تغییر اقلیم بر امواج گرمایی سواحل شمالی خلیج‌فارس تخصصي Special پژوهشي Research <p dir="RTL" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size:16px;"><span style="font-family: nasimyw;"><strong>هدف از این پژوهش شناسایی امواج گرمایی سواحل شمالی خلیج&shy;فارس و مقایسه&shy;ی شرایط پایه و آینده است. برای نیل به این هدف از آمار روزانه&shy;ی میانگین دمای بیشینه&shy;ی 35 سال آماری (از 1980 تا 2014) ایستگاه&shy;های آبادان، بوشهر، بندرعباس، بندرلنگه و کیش استفاده‌ شده است؛ همچنین برای پیش&shy;بینی امواج گرمایی در آینده از داده&shy;های دمای بیشینه&shy;ی چهار مدل از سری مدل&shy;های </strong><span dir="LTR">CMIP5</span><strong> (شامل </strong><span dir="LTR">CanESM2</span><strong>، </strong><span dir="LTR">MPI-ESM-MR</span><strong>، </strong><span dir="LTR">CSIRO-Mk3-6-0</span><strong> و </strong><span dir="LTR">(CMCC-CESM</span><strong> طبق </strong><span dir="LTR">RCP8.5</span><strong> برای دوره 2040 تا 2074 استفاده شده است. برای ریزگردانی</strong> <strong>خروجی مدل&shy;های اقلیمی مورد نظر از روش شبکه&shy;های عصبی مصنوعی و برای شناسایی امواج گرمایی، از شاخص فومیاکی (فوجیبه) استفاده شده و با استفاده از برنامه‌نویسی در محیط نرم&shy;افزار متلب روزهایی را که (دست کم به مدت 2 روز) دمای آن&shy;ها بالاتر از 2+ انحراف معیار بود به عنوان موج گرمایی شناسایی شدند. نتایج پژوهش نشان می&shy;دهد که امواج گرمایی کوتاه‌مدت رخداد بیش‌تری دارند. امواج گرمایی در دوره&shy;ی پایه دارای روند افزایشی معنی‌دار (بجز ایستگاه بوشهر) امّا ضعیف بوده‌اند به‌طوری که فراوانی آن در سال&shy;های اخیر، بیش&shy;تر شده است. در دوره&shy;ی 2040 تا 2074 فراوانی امواج گرمایی دارای روند کاهشی معنی‌دار امّا معمولاً با ضرایب تعیین اندک است</strong><span dir="LTR">.</span><strong> هر چند برای ایستگاه کیش در دوره‌ی 2040 تا 2074 فراوانی امواج گرمایی پیش‌بینی شده با چهار مدل، نسبت به دوره پایه افزایش نشان می&shy;دهد امّا برای بقیّه&shy;ی ایستگاه&shy;های مورد مطالعه، در دو مدل افزایش و در دو مدل کاهش نشان داده‌اند. با استفاده از آزمون دانکن در سطح ۰۵/۰، مشخص شد که بین امواج گرمایی داده&shy;های پایه و آینده هیچ‌گونه تفاوت معنی‌داری وجود ندارد.</strong></span></span></p> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Climate change is one of the most significant threats facing the world today. One of the most important consequences of climate change is increasing frequency of climate hazards, mainly heat waves. This phenomena has a robust impacts on human and other ecosystems. The aim of this study is investigating changes of heat waves in historical (1980-2014) and projected (2040-2074) data in northern cost of Persian Gulf.</span></span></p> <p style="text-align: justify;"></p> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">The focus here is on Mean daily maximum temperature and Fujibe index to extract heat waves. For this purpose 6 weather stations locating in north coast of Persian Gulf, Iran, are used (table 1).</span></span></p> <p style="text-align: justify;"></p> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Table1: weather stations</span></span></p> <table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody> <tr> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Station</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Latitude</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Longitude</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Elevation(m)</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Abadan</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">30&deg; 22&#39; N</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">48&deg; 20&#39; E</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">6.6</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Boushehr</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">28&deg; 55&#39; N</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">50&deg; 55&#39; E</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">9</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Bandarabbas</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">27&deg; 15&#39; N</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">56&deg; 15&#39; E</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">9.8</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Bandarlengeh</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">26&deg; 35&#39; N</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">54&deg; 58&#39; E</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">22.7</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Kish</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">26&deg; 54&#39; N</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">53&deg; 54&#39; E</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">30</span></span></p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p style="text-align: justify;"></p> <p style="text-align: justify;"></p> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">&nbsp; In addition, 4 model ensemble outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to project future occurrence and severity of heat waves (2040 to 2070), under Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5), adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) (table 2).</span></span></p> <p style="text-align: justify;"></p> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Table2: List of the AR5 CMIP5 Used Models</span></span></p> <table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody> <tr> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Model</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:331px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Modeling Cener</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:66px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Country</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">CanESM2</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:331px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Canadian Earth System Model</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:66px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Canada</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">MPI-ESM-MR</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:331px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Max-Planck-Institut f&uuml;r Meteorologie</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:66px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Germany</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">CSIRO-Mk3-6-0</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:331px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:66px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Australia</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">CMCC-CESM&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:331px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">CMCC Carbon Earth System Model</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:66px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Italy</span></span></p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p style="text-align: justify;"></p> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">The output of models is downscaled using artificial neural network method (ANN). A feed-forward network of multi-layer perceptron with an input layer, a hidden layer and an output layer is used for this purpose. 73 percent (1980 &ndash; 2000) of the data is used for training and 27 percent (2000-2005) for testing ANN models. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) is used as an indicator of the accuracy of Models.</span></span></p> <p style="margin-left: -2.3pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">RMSE=<img alt="AWT IMAGE" height="38" src="file:///C:UsersMatrixxAppDataLocalTempmsohtmlclip11clip_image002.png" width="152" ></span></span></p> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Here&nbsp; <img alt="AWT IMAGE" height="24" src="file:///C:UsersMatrixxAppDataLocalTempmsohtmlclip11clip_image004.png" width="32" >&nbsp;is the outputs of ANN models (downscaled data) and <img alt="AWT IMAGE" height="24" src="file:///C:UsersMatrixxAppDataLocalTempmsohtmlclip11clip_image006.png" width="38" >is the observation data.</span></span></p> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Fujibe et all (2007) used an index based on Normalized Thermal Deviation (NTD) for extracting long-term changes of temperature extremes and day to day variability using following equations:</span></span></p> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><img alt="AWT IMAGE" height="43" src="file:///C:UsersMatrixxAppDataLocalTempmsohtmlclip11clip_image008.png" width="132" ></span></span></p> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Where <em>N </em>is the number of days in the summation except missing values. Then nine-day running average was applied three times in order to filter out day-to-day irregularities.</span></span></p> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><img alt="AWT IMAGE" height="16" src="file:///C:UsersMatrixxAppDataLocalTempmsohtmlclip11clip_image010.png" width="15" >=(i,j,n)=T(i,j,n)-T(I,j)</span></span></p> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">The departure from the climatic mean is given by</span></span></p> <p style="text-align: justify;"></p> <p dir="RTL" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><img alt="AWT IMAGE" height="16" src="file:///C:UsersMatrixxAppDataLocalTempmsohtmlclip11clip_image012.png" width="41" ><em><span dir="LTR">=</span></em><img alt="AWT IMAGE" height="17" src="file:///C:UsersMatrixxAppDataLocalTempmsohtmlclip11clip_image014.png" width="94" ></span></span></p> <p dir="RTL" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><img alt="AWT IMAGE" height="31" src="file:///C:UsersMatrixxAppDataLocalTempmsohtmlclip11clip_image016.png" width="107" ></span></span></p> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">If NTD >2 and at least lasts for 2 days it determine as a heat wave.</span></span></p> <p style="text-align: justify;"></p> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Results</span></span></p> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Table 3 shows the results of downscaling selected GCM models.</span></span></p> <table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="605"> <tbody> <tr> <td style="width:104px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"></p> </td> <td colspan="2" style="width:123px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">nodes</span></span></p> </td> <td colspan="5" style="width:302px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">RMSE</span></span></p> </td> <td rowspan="2" style="width:76px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Average RMSE</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:104px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"></p> </td> <td style="width:66px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Sigmoid function</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:57px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Linear function</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:66px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Abadan</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:66px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Bushehr</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:57px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Bandarabbas</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:66px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Bandar-e-Lengeh</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:47px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Kish</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:104px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">CanESM2</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:66px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">5</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:57px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">1</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:66px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">9.6</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:66px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">6.1</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:57px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">4.85</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:66px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">4.7</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:47px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">4.5</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:76px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">5.97</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:104px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">MPI-ESM-MR</span></span></p> <p style="text-align: justify;"></p> </td> <td style="width:66px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">5</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:57px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">1</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:66px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">9.3</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:66px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">7.1</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:57px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">3.9</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:66px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">5</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:47px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">4.3</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:76px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">5.9</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:104px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">CSIRO-MK3-6-0</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:66px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">15</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:57px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">1</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:66px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">8.8</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:66px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">5.6</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:57px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">3.6</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:66px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">3.4</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:47px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">3.6</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:76px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">5</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:104px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">CMCC-CESM</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:66px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">10</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:57px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">1</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:66px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">9.2</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:66px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">5.8</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:57px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">3.9</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:66px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">4.7</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:47px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">3.9</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:76px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">5.5</span></span></p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p style="text-align: justify;"></p> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Table 4 compares the frequency of heat waves for GCMs and historical data.</span></span></p> <table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody> <tr> <td style="width:132px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"></p> </td> <td style="width:68px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">CanESM2</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:92px;"> <p dir="RTL" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span dir="LTR">MPI-ESM-MR</span></span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:104px;"> <p dir="RTL" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span dir="LTR">CSIRO-Mk3-6-0</span></span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:94px;"> <p dir="RTL" style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;"><span dir="LTR">CMCC-CESM</span></span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:104px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Historical data</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:132px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Abadan</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:68px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">434</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:92px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">401</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:104px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">448</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:94px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">387</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:104px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">430</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:132px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Bushehr</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:68px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">376</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:92px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">423</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:104px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">420</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:94px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">406</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:104px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">407</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:132px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Bandarabbas</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:68px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">441</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:92px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">405</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:104px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">457</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:94px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">382</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:104px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">410</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:132px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Bandar-e-Lengeh</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:68px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">380</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:92px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">414</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:104px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">388</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:94px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">401</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:104px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">400</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:132px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Kish</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:68px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">421</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:92px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">442</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:104px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">415</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:94px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">442</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:104px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">399</span></span></p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">For historical data, heat waves are more frequent in Abadan station than other stations. There is an increasing trend in the occurrence of heat waves in historical data and monthly frequency of heat waves show the highest amounts for summer.</span></span></p> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">For both historical and future data 2 days listening heat waves are more frequent.</span></span></p> <p style="text-align: justify;"></p> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Table 5 shows seasonal changes of heat waves for historical data and GCMs.</span></span></p> <table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody> <tr> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">season</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">The ratio of heat waves from total historical data (percent)</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">The ratio of heat waves from total projected data (percent)</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td rowspan="4" style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Abadan</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Spring</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">30.43</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">24.02</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Summer</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">29.19</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">27.87</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Autumn</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">17.39</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">22.61</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Winter</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">22.98</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">25.48</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td rowspan="4" style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Bushehr</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Spring</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">21.42</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">24.23</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Summer</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">25</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">26.21</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Autumn</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">28.57</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">24.82</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Winter</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">24</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">25.32</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td rowspan="4" style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Bandarabbas</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Spring</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">21.73</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">24.7</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Summer</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">26.81</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">27.01</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Autumn</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">25.81</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">25.17</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Winter</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">24.1</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">24.63</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td rowspan="4" style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Bandar-e-Lengeh</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Spring</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">23.55</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">23.74</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Summer</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">23.33</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">29.82</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Autumn</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">23.74</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">25.81</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Winter</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">25.17</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">20.8</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td rowspan="4" style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Kish</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Spring</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">24.27</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">24.8</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Summer</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">25.53&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">28.32</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Autumn</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">23.35</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">25.21</span></span></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">Winter</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">23.1</span></span></p> </td> <td style="width:150px;"> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">23.8</span></span></p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p style="text-align: justify;"></p> <p style="text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family:times new roman;"><span style="font-size: 16px;">In recent years the frequency of heat waves is increasing in all studied stations. Coincide with Russia and Europe, the highest amounts of heat waves is occurred in 2010 in northern coast of Persian Gulf and this is adopted Esmaeilnezhad et all (2013), Gavidel (2015) and Azizi (2011).</span></span></p> تغییر اقلیم, RCP8.5, امواج گرمایی, خلیج‌فارس Climate change, RCP8.5, heat waves, Persian Gulf 1 14 http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-3-37&slc_lang=fa&sid=1 gelaleh molodi گلاله مولودی 10031947532846001024 10031947532846001024 No asadolah khorani اسداله خورانی khoorani@hormozgan.ac.ir 10031947532846001025 10031947532846001025 Yes abbas moradi عباس مرادی 10031947532846001026 10031947532846001026 No