Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental Hazards
تحلیل فضایی مخاطرات محیطی
Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental Hazards
Literature & Humanities
http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir
1
admin
2423-7892
2588-5146
10.61186/jsaeh
fa
jalali
1400
12
1
gregorian
2022
3
1
8
4
online
1
fulltext
fa
تحلیل فضایی عوامل تاثیرگذار بر مصارف مستقیم انرژی و تولید CO2 خانوارها در شهر اردبیل
Spatial analysis of the factors influencing households direct energy consumption and CO2 emission in Ardabil
عمومى
General
پژوهشي
Research
<strong>مصرف مستقیم سوخت و انرژی توسط خانوارها در تولید و انتشار </strong><strong><span dir="LTR">CO<sub>2</sub></span></strong><strong>، </strong><strong>سهم عمده ­ای دارد. به همین دلیل شناخت عوامل مرتبط با مصارف خانوار در راستای برنامه­ ریزی و اعمال مدیریت بر انتشار کربن بسیار اهمیت داشته و در این مقاله به این موضوع پرداخته شده است. محدوده مطالعاتی، شهر اردبیل و جامعه آماری خانوارهای ساکن این شهر بوده ­اند. میزان مصرف گاز شهری، برق و سوخت خودرو ملاک تعیین میزان انرژی مصرفی مستقیم خانوار بوده که داده­ های دو مورد نخست از روی قبوض مربوط به­دست آمده و دیگری به همراه سایر داده ها با پرسش از سرپرستان خانوارهای نمونه حاصل شده­اند. تعداد نمونه بر مبنای مدل کوکران 383 خانوار تعیین شده و توزیع نمونه به­ صورت تصادفی خوشه­ ای بوده است. همچنین از ابزار پرسشنامه برای گردآوری داده­ های پیمایشی استفاده شده است. ابتدا میزان مصرف انرژی هر خانوار نمونه بر حسب واحد مگاژول محاسبه و سپس با توجه به آن، میزان تولید </strong><strong><span dir="LTR">CO<sub>2</sub></span></strong><strong> هر خانوار از روی رقم انرژی، تعیین گردید. آنگاه با استفاده از قابلیت ­های سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی و ابزار </strong><strong>درون­یابی کریجینگ، نقشه ­های توزیع فضایی تولید شده و </strong><strong> به کمک نرم­افزار</strong> <strong><span dir="LTR">TerrSet </span></strong><strong><span dir="LTR">Geospatial Monitoring and Modeling Syste</span></strong><strong><span dir="LTR">m</span></strong><strong> نقشه­های رابطه فضایی ترسیم گردیدند. یافته­های تحقیق نشان دادندکه پهنه­ های با بالاترین مصرف انرژی و تولید </strong><strong><span dir="LTR">CO<sub>2</sub></span></strong><strong> به­ صورت پراکنده در جنوب و جنوب­ غربی شهر و پهنه­ های با کمترین مقدار، در شمال، شمال­ شرق و مرکز شهر قرار دارند. فراوانی خانوارهای با مصرف زیادتر انرژی و تولید بیشتر </strong><strong><span dir="LTR">CO<sub>2</sub></span></strong><strong> در مناطق دو و یک شهرداری و فراوانی خانوارهای با کمترین مقدار، در مناطق سه و چهار بیشتربوده است. به لحاظ رقم میانگین، مناطق دو و سه، رقمی بالاتر از رقم میانگین کل شهر و مناطق یک و پنج، رقمی کمتر از آن داشته ­اند. 80 درصد از تولید کربن خانوارها، از منشاء مصرف خانگی مستقیم سوخت، 15 درصد از منشاء وسیله نقلیه و 5 درصد از محل مصرف برق بوده است. رابطه فضایی کل 11 متغیر مورد بررسی با تولید کربن در سطح شهر رقم 67/0 را به دست داده اما رابطه تک تک متغیرها با تولید </strong><strong><span dir="LTR">CO<sub>2</sub></span></strong><strong> از 49/0 برای تعداد اعضای خانواده دارنده گواهینامه رانندگی تا 17/0 برای تحصیلات سرپرست خانوار، متفاوت بوده است. پهنه­ های با بیشترین رابطه فضایی (8/0 و بیشتر)به صورت نواری شمالی </strong><strong>–</strong><strong> جنوبی در حاشیه شرقی شهر و پهنه­ های با کمترین رقم، (2/0 و کمتر) در شمال ­شرقی شهر قرار داشته ­اند.</strong><br>
<span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><b><span lang="EN" style="font-size:14.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">Spatial analysis of the factors </span></span></span></b><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">influencing</span></span></span></b><b><span style="font-size:14.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""> households’ direct energy </span></span></span></b></span></span></span><br>
<span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><b><span lang="EN" style="font-size:14.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">consumption and CO<sub>2</sub> emission in Ardabil</span></span></span></b><b><span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:14.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"></span></span></span></b></span></span></span><br>
<span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="text-justify:kashida"><span style="text-kashida:0%"><span style="line-height:115%"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><b><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">Problem Statement</span></span></span></b><b><span dir="RTL" lang="AR-SA" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"></span></span></span></b></span></span></span></span></span><br>
<span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="text-justify:kashida"><span style="text-kashida:0%"><span style="line-height:115%"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">Carbon management and its production </span></span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">resources</span></span></span><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""> are important not only for the preservation of non-renewable resources but also for the prevention of global warming and its adverse consequences.</span></span></span> <span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">Direct consumption of fuel and energy by households plays a major role in CO<sub>2</sub> production and it’s spatial distribution. Therefore, in order to plan and manage carbon emissions, it is very important to identify the factors influencing household energy consumption. This paper aimed to investigate the relationship between household characteristics such as age, income, family size, household head age, house area, etc. and energy consumption which ordinally results in more emissions. The study area is Ardabil city. It has an area of 6289 ha and a population of about 530000 people. </span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br>
<span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="text-justify:kashida"><span style="text-kashida:0%"><span style="line-height:115%"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><b><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"></span></span></span></b></span></span></span></span></span><br>
<span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="text-justify:kashida"><span style="text-kashida:0%"><span style="line-height:115%"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><b><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">Research Method</span></span></span></b></span></span></span></span></span><br>
<span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="text-justify:kashida"><span style="text-kashida:0%"><span style="line-height:115%"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">Consumption of natural gas, electricity and car fuel has been the criteria for determining the amount of household energy consumption. The data of the first two cases obtained from </span></span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">the</span></span></span><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""> bills of household’s consumption and the data of car fuel consumption and the other other required data, were collected through a survey as well.</span></span></span> <span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">Based on the Cochran's formula, statistical samples including 383 households were selected as a sample of the households residing in Ardabil. A questionnaire was also used to collect the data. Data on energy consumption variables were first converted to Mj and then converted to CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. The data was then entered into Arc GIS </span></span></span><span style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">to draw</span></span></span><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times=""> spatial distribution maps using Kriging interpolation Tool. Finally, using TerrSet Geospatial Monitoring and Modeling System software, the spatial relationship maps were produced and the adjusted R values were calculated.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br>
<span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="text-justify:kashida"><span style="text-kashida:0%"><span style="line-height:115%"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span style="font-family:"Times New Roman",serif"></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br>
<span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="text-justify:kashida"><span style="text-kashida:0%"><span style="line-height:115%"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><b><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">Findings and Conclusions</span></span></span></b></span></span></span></span></span><br>
<span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="text-justify:kashida"><span style="text-kashida:0%"><span style="line-height:115%"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">Findings demonstrate that in Ardabil, household fuel consumption cause to an emission of more than 226,515 grams of CO<sub>2</sub> per household every month which is three times more than the mean value for all the Iranian households. In the study area, the average amount of energy consumption and carbon emission of households residing in municipality districts 2 and 3 are higher than same figure for all the households residing in the city. In contrast, in the municipality districts of 1 and 5, energy consumption and CO<sub>2</sub> emission are lower than the mean value for the whole Ardabil households. In district 4, the figure is very close to the mean value for all the households. More than 80 percent of household CO<sub>2</sub> emission emitted from fuel consumption in homes and this ratio is almost the same throughout the city and in all municipality districts. After that, the ratio of transportation CO<sub>2</sub> emission is about 15%, and electricity consumption has a ratio of less than 5% as well. In four lots located in the southwest, north, northeast and the center of the city, every year, households emit less than 172640 g/m of CO<sub>2</sub>. In contrast, in 4.8% of the city surface area, the lots located in southwestern and southeastern, households’ emission of CO<sub>2</sub> is the most (more than 308923 g/m).</span></span></span> <span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">The adjusted R, which represents the spatial relationship between the variables with CO<sub>2</sub> emission, for all the 11 variables, were 0.67, 0.66, 0.72, 0.80, 0.87 and 0.88 for the city, district 1, district 2, district 3, district 4 and district 5 respectively and these values indicate that there is a high correlation between these variables. The highest adjusted R values (0.8 and more) belong to the strip-shaped lots locate in the central and eastern fringes of the city and they cover almost half of the surface area of district 2 and a small part of district 1. Areas where R value is less than 0.2 cover almost the whole surface of district 5 in the northeast of the city. Also, variables of “number of people who have a driving license in any household”, “household head age”, “household size and “house surface area”, represent a high correlation between these variables and CO2 emissions. Also, the correlation between the variables level of “education of household head”, “household head income” and “having electrical appliances” indicate that there is the lowest correlation between the variables and with CO<sub>2</sub> emissions.</span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br>
<span style="font-size:11pt"><span style="text-justify:kashida"><span style="text-kashida:0%"><span style="line-height:115%"><span calibri="" style="font-family:"><b><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">Key Words: </span></span></span></b><span lang="EN" style="font-size:10.0pt"><span style="line-height:115%"><span new="" roman="" style="font-family:" times="">Energy, CO<sub>2</sub>,<b> </b>Household consumption, Spatial relation, Ardebil<b> </b></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span><br>
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انرژی, CO2, مصارف خانوار, رابطه فضایی, اردبیل
Energy, CO2, Household consumption, Spatial relation, Ardebil
89
102
http://jsaeh.khu.ac.ir/browse.php?a_code=A-10-326-4&slc_lang=fa&sid=1
Taher
Parizadi
طاهر
پریزادی
tparizadi@khu.ac.ir
10031947532846009701
10031947532846009701
Yes
Kharazmi University
دانشگاه خوارزمی
Habibollah
Fasihi
حبیب اله
فصیحی
habibfasihi@yahoo.com
10031947532846009702
10031947532846009702
No
Kharazmi University
دانشگاه خوارزمی
Fahad
Agah
فرهاد
آگاه
farhadagah2020@gmail.com
10031947532846009703
10031947532846009703
No
Kharazmi University
دانشگاه خوارزمی