Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic on Primary Energy Consumption in MENA Countries: Energy Input-Output Analysis

Manzoor, Davood; Rajabi, Sajad; Ranjbaran, Reza

doi:10.52547/jemr.12.43.4

Volume 12, Issue 43 (3-2021) jemr 2021, 12(43): 4-46 | Back to browse issues page

‎ 10.52547/jemr.12.43.4

‎ 20.1001.1.22286454.1400.11.43.2.4

Mendeley

Zotero

RefWorks

Manzoor D, Rajabi S, Ranjbaran R. Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic on Primary Energy Consumption in MENA Countries: Energy Input-Output Analysis. jemr 2021; 12 (43) :4-46
URL: http://jemr.khu.ac.ir/article-1-2120-en.html

Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic on Primary Energy Consumption in MENA Countries: Energy Input-Output Analysis

Davood Manzoor ^*

¹, Sajad Rajabi²

, Reza Ranjbaran²

1- Imam Sadiq University , manzoor@isu.ac.ir
2- Imam Sadiq University

Abstract: (3701 Views)

With the outbreak of the coronavirus in countries around the world and its rapid spread, governments have decided to impose restrictions and social distancing. Restrictions and closures of businesses and economic activities, and changes in supply and demand patterns during this period, have exacerbated concerns among economists. This article deals with the issue of changing primary energy consumption in 18 countries in the MENA region. To this end, 10 different scenarios of the future state of the disease and its limitations have been considered. The results show that according to the best scenario (rapid and complete improvement of the epidemic), Libya with 4.38% and Iraq with 3.39% will have the largest decrease, and according to the worst-case scenario (explosive disease exacerbation and complete quarantine), Libya with 12.6% and Syria with 12.3% will have the greatest reduction in primary energy consumption. The three countries, Syria, Lebanon, and Iran, also had the most differences in the pessimistic and optimistic scenario. Also, taking into account the total changes in the primary energy consumption of these 18 countries, according to the most optimistic scenario, the primary energy consumption will be reduced by 1.5% and according to the worst-case scenario, it will be reduced by 8.8%.

Keywords: Input-Output, Sectoral Analysis, Primary Energy, Coronavirus, Energy Economics

Full-Text [PDF 6073 kb] (1083 Downloads)

Type of Study: Applicable | Subject: انرژی، منابع و محیط زیست
Received: 2021/01/19 | Accepted: 2021/06/28 | Published: 2021/09/12

References

1. Aruga, K., Islam, M.M., Jannat, A., 2020. Effects of COVID-19 on Indian energy consumption. Sustain. 12, 1-16. [DOI:10.3390/su12145616]

2. BEN MCWILLIAMS, GEORG ZACHMANN, (2020), Electricity Consumption as a Near Real-time Indicator of COVID-19 Economic Effects, IAEE Energy Forum / Third Quarter 2020

3. Dietzenbacher, Erik & Lahr, Michael. (2013). Expanding Extractions. Economic Systems Research. 25. 341-360. [DOI:10.1080/09535314.2013.774266]

4. Emanuela Menichetti, Abdelghani El Gharras, Barthélémy Duhamel and Sohbet Karbuz1, THE MENA REGION IN THE GLOBAL ENERGY MARKETS, October 2018

5. Energy Transformation Newsletter (2019), Perspectives on Developments in the MENA Region in the Field of Energy, Parliamentary Research Center. 35), Volume 10.

6. EnergyWorld. Coronavirus Impact: Within Ten Days, a 26 Percent Fall in India's Energy Consumption. 2020. Available online: https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/power/coronavirus-impact-withintendays- 26-per-cent-fall-in-indias-energy-consumption/74854825 (accessed on 21 June 2020).

7. Eurostat (European Statistical Office). 2020: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat.

8. Haddad, Eduardo Amaral, Fernando S. Perobelli, Inácio Fernandes de Araújo, (2020) Input-Output Analysis of COVID-19: Methodology for Assessing the Impacts of Lockdown Measures, Report number:TD NEREUS 01-2020Affiliation: University of São Paulo

9. https://behdasht.gov.ir

10. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

11. Iqbal, S., Bilal, A.R., Nurunnabi, M. et al. It is time to control the worst: testing COVID-19 outbreak, energy consumption and CO2 emission. Environ Sci Pollut Res (2020). [DOI:10.1007/s11356-020-11462-z]

12. Jahangard, E. (2013). Input-Output Analysis; Technology, planning and development. 1. Tehran. Publication of statistics. (in persion)

13. Ji Chou, Nai-Fong Kuo, Su-Ling Peng, (2004) Potential Impacts of the SARS Outbreak on Taiwan's Economy,Asian Economic Papers 3(1):84-99 [DOI:10.1162/1535351041747969]

14. Leifeld, J., Menichetti, L. The underappreciated potential of peatlands in global climate change mitigation strategies. Nat Commun 9, 1071 (2018). [DOI:10.1038/s41467-018-03406-6]

15. Lenzen M, Li M, Malik A, Pomponi F, Sun Y-Y, Wiedmann T, et al. (2020) Global socioeconomic losses and environmental gains from the Coronavirus pandemic. PLoS ONE 15(7): e0235654. pone.0235654 [DOI:10.1371/journal.]

16. Maurizio Ciaschini, (1988), Input-Output Analysis: Current Developments (International Studies in Economic Modelling). Springer Netherlands. [DOI:10.1007/978-94-009-2607-3_1]

17. Menichetti, Emanuela; El Gharras, Abdelghani; Duhamel, Barthélémy; Karbuz Sohbet; THE MENA REGION IN THE GLOBAL ENERGY MARKETS, Menara working paper, October 2018

18. Miller R.E., Peter D.B (2009), Input-Output Analysis, Foundations and Extensions, Cambridge University Press. [DOI:10.1017/CBO9780511626982]

19. Mirnezami S R, Rajabi S, Moridi Farimani F. The Inflationary Effects of Increasing Electricity Price - in Different Consumption Tariffs - on Economic Activities and Household Cost: Input-Output Method. jemr. 2020; 11 (41) :91-144. (in persion)

20. Mirnezami, S. R., & Rajabi, S. (2020). Changing Primary Energy Consumption Due to COVID-19: The Study 20 European Economies. [DOI:10.21203/rs.3.rs-42421/v1]

21. Mirnezami, S., Rajabi, S. (2020). Estimating the Impacts of COVID-19 on Iran Economy: Modelling Seven Scenarios. Science and Technology Policy Letters, 10(2), 7-19. (in persion)

22. Ozturk, Feride; Energy consumption-GDP causality in MENA countries, Energy Sources, Volume 12, 2017, Pages 231-236 [DOI:10.1080/15567249.2015.1072597]

23. Rajabi S, Manzoor D. Assessing the Importance of Energy Sector Using the Expanding Extraction Method: Iranian Economy. jemr. 2019; 9 (35) :69-110. (in persion) [DOI:10.29252/jemr.9.35.69]

24. Sarfraz, M.; Shehzad, K.; Meran Sha, S.G. The impact of COVID-19 as a necessary evil on air pollution in India during the lockdown. Environ. Pollut. 2020. [CrossRef] [DOI:10.1016/j.envpol.2020.115080]

25. Shafiullah, G.; Raju, K.; Jamal, T.; Reddy, S.K. COVID-19: Impact Analysis and Recommendations for Power and Energy Sector Operation EnerarXiv-Preprint Preprint. 2020. Available online: https://www.researchgate. net/publication/341204513%0ACOVID-19 (accessed on 22 June 2020).

26. Smith, David, Moore, Lang, (2004) "The SIR Model for Spread of Disease - The Differential Equation Model"

27. Souri, A. (2005). Input-Output Analysis. First Edition. Hamedan. Noor Alam Publications. (in persion)

28. Suehiro, S. Impact of Covid-19 on Energy Demand. IEEJ e-Newsl. 2020, 184, 3. Available online: https: //eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/8938.pdf (accessed on 24 June 2020).

29. Wang, B.; Yang, Z.; Xuan, J.; Jiao, K. Crises and opportunities in terms of energy and AI technologies during the COVID-19 pandemic. Energy AI 2020. [CrossRef] [DOI:10.1016/j.egyai.2020.100013]

30. Warwick Mckibbin, Roshen Fernando, (2020) The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios, CAMA Working Paper [DOI:10.2139/ssrn.3547729]

31. Xiao-Guang Yue, Xue-Feng Shao, Rita Yi Man Li, Michael James C Crabbe, Lili Mi, Siyan Hu, Julien S Baker, (2020) Gang Liang, Risk Management Analysis for Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China, Journal of Risk and Financing Management, pp13-22 [DOI:10.3390/jrfm13020022]

32. Xiuli Liu, Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, Shouyang Wang, Minghui Qin, Xin Xiang, Shan Zheng, Xuefeng Li, (2020) Modeling the situation of COVID-19 and effects of different containment strategies in China with dynamic differential equations and parameters estimation.