Journal of Economic Modeling Research

Regarding to the importance of the relationship between macroeconomic instability and exchange rate pass-through, present study by using EGARCH and smooth transition regression (STR) model has examined the nonlinear effect of macroeconomic instability on the exchange rate pass-through of Iran during the period 1963-2010. For this, firstly the macroeconomic instability index has been estimated using EGARCH and then, by using STR, the research hypothesis which is that the macroeconomic instability has a nonlinear and positive effect on the exchange rate pass-through has been examined. Based on the obtained results in this research, macroeconomic instability has the macroeconomic instability has a positive effect on the exchange rate pass through in both regimes, although an increasing in volatility increases rate pass-through. So, the sequence of economic policies is important and specifically, we suggest that macroeconomic instability reduction policies should be prior to exchange rate policies.

The bubble of Asset Price is the deviation of the asset price from its fundamental value. Since the many of the financial crisis arise from bursting bubble of financial assets, the explore of bubble behaviors in these markets and the early detection for the prevention of adverse economic consequences is important. Considering the criticisms of conventional tests for detecting price bubbles and also the importance of the subject, in this study, we have considered the new methods proposed by Phillips, et al. (2011, 2012) based on Right-Tailed Augmented Dickey-Fuller (RTADF) tests. In this regard, in order to testing explosive behavior and multiple bubbles and determining bubble periods in Iranian informal exchange market, we have applied the tests of SADF and GSADF according to monthly data for the nominal exchange rate from 2002:04 to 2016:03. Since the explosive behavior in nominal exchange rate might be driven by the its fundamentals, to comment on the existence of rational bubbles in the exchange market, we have evaluated the ratio of the nominal exchange rate to the relative prices of tradable and non-tradable goods. Based on the obtained results, the Iranian foreign exchange market has been experienced explosive behavior and multiple bubbles in the period of under study. Moreover, the relative prices of traded goods explain some explosiveness in the Iranian exchange market. Our findings suggest that the explosive behavior in nominal exchange rate from 2008:10-2008:12, 2012:01-2012:03 and 2013:09-2013:11 was because of rational bubbles in exchange rate and in other periods was driven by the relative price of tradable goods. Therefore, it is suggested to control the sharp exchange rate movements, in addition to bubbles, fluctuations in prices of traded goods market require more attention. Also, due to the possibility of bubbles repetition, the GSADF test is the better test to detect bubbles.