Journal of Economic Modeling Research

One of the major problems in Iranian economy is continuous deficit in the budget operating balance due to the non-optimal government size. The government often financed a part of this deficit by debt cearation. Government debts depends on its size and decomposition have variety macroeconomic effects. So, this study investigated the macroeconomic effects of government debt in iran during 1352-1393 by a SVAR model. the result showed that government debt to Nondepository Institutions leads to aggregate demand surplus, increasing of relative price of nontradable goods to tradable goods and decreasing of gdp. The debt to central bank increase price level and decrease gdp. Finally, government debt to other Depository Institutions leads to aggregate demand surplus, increasing of real exchange rate, decreasing of relative price of nontradable goods to tradable goods, decreasing of general price level and increasing of gdp. Also, according to the results of variance decomposition, the government can control a significant part of short run and long run macroeconomic fluctuations by managing its debts.

Rice is the second strategic product after wheat and one of the most widely consumed food products in the country. Population growth, consumption and growing demand, price fluctuations and welfare effects due to changes in the amount and price of rice require the attention and planning and foresight of policymakers and the country's planning system. In this study, in the framework of inverse demand system, rice types (foreign rice 1 and 2 as well as four types of domestic rice) using cross-sectional data related to consumption and expenditure of urban households during the years 96-1392 were estimated by seemingly unrelated regression estimation (SURE) method. And from 4 systems of reverse demand IADIS, IROT, INBR and ICBS Only the inverse demand system IADIS It is compatible with the data of the research method and according to the results of the statistics, the correlation ratio is superior to the other three models In order to study the welfare effects, four scenarios were defined and by compensating the compensatory and equilibrium effects and combined changes were determined.  Due to the share of more than 60% of first grade foreign rice and second grade foreign rice in the expenditure share of urban households, a change in the amount of consumption of this type of rice compared to domestic rice can have a more significant impact on household welfare. The results of changing the values of different types of rice on their prices in the form of different scenarios showed that if the consumption values of imported rice decrease, the price of this rice will increase. However, the rate of price change for different types of rice is not the same, and its intensity depends on the amount of traction and the scale of each. On the other hand, the demand for different types of rice will increase in the future for various reasons, including population growth, which if this increase in demand is not accompanied by an increase in market value, will increase the price of various types of rice.