Journal of Economic Modeling Research

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Objective: Natural disasters, especially those caused by climate change, have far-reaching effects on economies and societies. Disasters bring direct and indirect damages that can seriously affect economic growth. It is expected that these damages will increase even more in the future due to climate change and increasing vulnerability of societies. Study has investigated one of the indirect economic effects of natural disasters, i.e. reducing the growth of the gross domestic product (GDP), and the role of insurance in reducing these effect. The main goal of the study is to analyze the impact of natural disasters on economic growth in member and non-member countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and evaluate the role of insurance in moderating these effects.
Materials and Methods: Using panel data from developed and developing countries and using panel regression models with fixed effects, the research has investigated the effect of natural disasters on GDP growth and the role of insurance in adjusting these effects.
Results: The results show that natural disasters have a significant negative effect on the economic growth of both groups of countries, but insurance significantly reduces these negative effects.
Conclusion: Development of insurance coverage in developing countries can help reduce the negative economic effects caused by natural disasters and strengthen the sustainability of economic growth, especially in countries like Iran.

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Objective: Despite their important role in Iran's welfare and economic system, pension funds have faced financial instability and serious threats in recent years due to financial challenges, especially the cash balance deficit. The aim of this study is to answer the hypothetical question of how much capital and assets is required at minimum to cover the deficit and liabilities of these pension funds.
Methodology: In this research which is a case study for one of the Iranian pension funds, by using two methods of futurology and the Value at Risk (VaR) models, an attempt has been made to estimate the minimum required capital for the financial sustainability of pilot pension fund.
Findings: The results show that in the scenario writing method, the minimum capital required to cover the deficit of this pilot pension fund in four scenarios based on the bond rate, ideal, optimistic and realistic, is on average more than 517 trillion tomans of assets for the year 1402. In the Value at Risk (VaR) method with different parametric (ARIMA-GARCH models) and non-parametric (Monte Carlo and bootstrap simulation) approaches, it was determined that this pilot pension fund needs on average more than 550 trillion tomans of assets for the year 1402 in order to cover its deficit with investment income. The results of this article considering the size of pension funds can be easily generalized to other funds and, thus, can be useful in adopting reform policies for financial sustainability in general.