Journal of Economic Modeling Research

This study considers the subject of social capital measurement and its problems. Because of the social capital is the qualitative subject, therefore its measurement have special problems, and there is no the same approach in this matter. These problems are in both of international and national level. For the reason, there are different methods to measure social capital. These methods have caused their results to be different and sometimes conflict. These differences are very high, such that the correlation between these indexes is sometime zero, negative and positive.

The main purpose of this study, is to evaluate the effect of diversion earnings forecast and earnings realized on returns stocks in Tehran Stock Exchange. In fact, this research aims to examine the diversion of earnings resulting from the diversion of corporates managers forecasts earnings, what impact these diversion of earnings have on the returns of stock price. To achieve this, 194 companies listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange selected in the period of 2005-2013.
In this study, two groups of companies experienced the highest returns and lowest returns over the period studied, have been selected. Multi-factor model of Fama and French (1993) was used as the theoretical basis. The results indicate that forecasts of companies have experienced highest returns in comparison with lowest returns are more cautious and accurate than prediction of their future earnings. Changes in earnings realized and Tehran Stock Exchange index returns have positive and considerable relationship with stock returns as well, but these relationships for companies with highest returns are stronger than companies with lowest returns.