Showing 49 results for Iran
Kiomars Sohaili, Shahram Fattahi, Mahnaz Sorkhvandi,
Volume 6, Issue 21 (10-2015)
Abstract
Monetary policy is one of the most important macroeconomic policies which could be used for achieving economic targets such as reducing the output gap and reducing the inflation's deviation from it's target level. These policies can be implemented through the control of volume of money or the rate of interest. Based on economic theories, the Central Bank should conduct monetary policies within a rule-based framework. In periods of positive or negative output gap or when inflation's deviation from it's target level is positive or negative, different monetary policies should be adopted. Assessment of Central Bank monetary policy's conformity to rules and the consistency of these policies with economic theories like Taylor's theory, is of vital importance. In order to evaluate the consistency of central bank monetary policies with economic theories, this study investigates the monetary strategies of Central Bank regarding the inflation's deviation and output gap during the period 1974-2013. It applies the Bootstrap method for this purpose. The result shows that Central Bank does not counteract the output gap during the periods of recession and boom and it's reactions to the inflation's deviation is in the reverse direction.
Karim Eslamloueyan, Zahra Khalilnezhad,
Volume 6, Issue 21 (10-2015)
Abstract
The main goal of this paper is to study the relationship between exchange rate misalignments and inflation persistence in Iran. In order to achieve this goal, we first use a non-linear smooth transition regression model to estimate equilibrium exchange rate in the context of a monetary model for the period 1978:2-2012:1. This allows us to compute exchange rate deviation from its equilibrium level. In the next next state, in order to examine whether the inflation rate is persistence, we use a threshold autoregressive method to examine the non-linear behavior of inflation rate in Iran. In general, the result shows that there is a direct relationship between the exchange rate misalignment and the inflation persistence. This finding is consistent with the hypothesis that exchange rate deviation from its equilibrium level is costly due to its effect on inflation rate. Moreover, the result indicates that an increase in the level of exchange rate is associated with inflation persistence. This finding has important policy implication for monetary authorites in Iran to implement appopriate exchange rate policy in order to fight inflation persistence in this country.
Saeed Rasekhi, Mojtaba Montazeri,
Volume 6, Issue 22 (12-2015)
Abstract
Regarding to the importance of the relationship between macroeconomic instability and exchange rate pass-through, present study by using EGARCH and smooth transition regression (STR) model has examined the nonlinear effect of macroeconomic instability on the exchange rate pass-through of Iran during the period 1963-2010. For this, firstly the macroeconomic instability index has been estimated using EGARCH and then, by using STR, the research hypothesis which is that the macroeconomic instability has a nonlinear and positive effect on the exchange rate pass-through has been examined. Based on the obtained results in this research, macroeconomic instability has the macroeconomic instability has a positive effect on the exchange rate pass through in both regimes, although an increasing in volatility increases rate pass-through. So, the sequence of economic policies is important and specifically, we suggest that macroeconomic instability reduction policies should be prior to exchange rate policies.
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Volume 7, Issue 23 (3-2016)
Abstract
Regarding to studies in different countries the research and development (R&D) play a major role in economy growth. Investment in R&D increase level of knowledge, and we have increase in production efficiency by knowledge increasing, after that economic growth will improve by productivity channel. Many studies exist on the R&D but in any of them not used the same variable for this indicator. The time series of knowledge level is not visible because of complexity the calculations and measurements of this variable. In this study the level of knowledge is intended as an unobservable variable. After that using LP and OP method the time series of this variable is extracted during the period 1974-2014 for Iranian economy. Estimates this series will be an important way for future empirical studies in research and development. Algorithms and methods that used in this paper can be run for other countries. Based on LP method, results shows during the 40 years of knowledge for Iranian economy has upward trend and the averages of grow rate of knowledge level is 0.42 percent for each year.
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Volume 7, Issue 24 (6-2016)
Abstract
The subject of this article is determining the oil optimal production path in one of the Iranian oil and gas brown field in Persian gulf, while the development of the field performed under the buyback contractual framework. In this research we have optimized a dynamic equation using numerically Bellman equation in Matlab program .We have considered different and possible oil price projections and discount rate scenarios. We have compared the differences between optimal production path and actual (and contractual) profiles. The results show that optimal production path is different from operator actual profile in both high and low discount rate (respectively 20% and 1%). Although contractual production profile and optimal production path for alternative discount rate is harmonization, However, Production profile bids by contractor matching with the calculated optimum production model in option of a high discount rate, in the early period, is Verified the expected behavior of international oil companies. But its incompatibility with actual performance the field indicates a incompatibility between the production plan bids by the contractor with the field real possibilities.
Hoda Zobeiri,
Volume 7, Issue 26 (12-2016)
Abstract
Exchange rate is one of the key indicators affecting macroeconomic performance, and inflation is one of the most important indicators which represents the macroeconomic performance. The aim of this paper is to identify the relation between these two important economic variables. By using the model of structural time series and Kalman Filter algorithm the effect of exchange rate gap (the difference between official exchange rate and parallel market exchange rate) on inflation in Iran has been investigated during 1961- 2012. The results of this paper indicate that exchange rate gap has a significant positive impact on inflation in Iran, so that 1 percent increase in exchange rate gap lead to 3 percent increase in inflation in Iran. These results have approved the single currency policy to control inflation in the country.
Dr Saeed Rasekhi, Dr Zahra Mila Elmi, Mr Milad Shahrazi,
Volume 8, Issue 27 (3-2017)
Abstract
The bubble of Asset Price is the deviation of the asset price from its fundamental value. Since the many of the financial crisis arise from bursting bubble of financial assets, the explore of bubble behaviors in these markets and the early detection for the prevention of adverse economic consequences is important. Considering the criticisms of conventional tests for detecting price bubbles and also the importance of the subject, in this study, we have considered the new methods proposed by Phillips, et al. (2011, 2012) based on Right-Tailed Augmented Dickey-Fuller (RTADF) tests. In this regard, in order to testing explosive behavior and multiple bubbles and determining bubble periods in Iranian informal exchange market, we have applied the tests of SADF and GSADF according to monthly data for the nominal exchange rate from 2002:04 to 2016:03. Since the explosive behavior in nominal exchange rate might be driven by the its fundamentals, to comment on the existence of rational bubbles in the exchange market, we have evaluated the ratio of the nominal exchange rate to the relative prices of tradable and non-tradable goods. Based on the obtained results, the Iranian foreign exchange market has been experienced explosive behavior and multiple bubbles in the period of under study. Moreover, the relative prices of traded goods explain some explosiveness in the Iranian exchange market. Our findings suggest that the explosive behavior in nominal exchange rate from 2008:10-2008:12, 2012:01-2012:03 and 2013:09-2013:11 was because of rational bubbles in exchange rate and in other periods was driven by the relative price of tradable goods. Therefore, it is suggested to control the sharp exchange rate movements, in addition to bubbles, fluctuations in prices of traded goods market require more attention. Also, due to the possibility of bubbles repetition, the GSADF test is the better test to detect bubbles.
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Volume 8, Issue 28 (7-2017)
Abstract
Addressing the economic components of the fiscal regime of the Iran Petroleum Contract (IPC), in this article the fiscal simulation of the contract has been developed. Most important fiscal parameters of the contract are: Capex and Opex, Cost of Money, remuneration fee, amortization period and R-factor. Technical information of the Darquin field (phase 3) has been used as a case study for this paper. The results show some merits and demerits. The most important output of the model is that the contractor's take is so small (about 3% in the discounted manner and the IRR of Contractor can’t exceed some amount (14.6%) by price increasing, showing the service nature of the contract. According to the results, remuneration fee is the most significant factor which can affect the IRR and take of the contractor, so its level should be determined carefully regarding the fiscal simulation model. Another issue which should be paid attention to is the determination of R-factor and remuneration fee slides. The fiscal regime is regressive in the levels of price lower than $50 and is progressive in the higher levels, but the profitability of the contractor in the higher levels is constant in absolute terms which can reduce the attractiveness of the contract. One of the major defects of the contract is the Gold-plating issue which is raised because of using R-Factor mechanism. Using the saving index can mitigate the problem notably.
Javad Barati, Zahra Karimi-Moughari, Nader Mehregan,
Volume 8, Issue 29 (10-2017)
Abstract
Investment spillover effects include regional growth factors around the developed centers, which this study aimed investigate effects of industrial investment spillover in provinces of Iran and the quantifying of these effects. Accordingly, it uses the spatial econometrics to explore the indirect effects or industrial investment spillover. The results indicate that provinces with a higher gravity index, which are respectively Tehran, Isfahan, Khorasan Razavi, Khuzestan and Fars with a coefficient of 0.152, 0.090, 0.085, 0.083 and 0.077 respectively, have more industrial investment spillover than other provinces. In contrast, provinces with more great geographical distance from developed provinces such as Ardabil, Sistan and Baluchestan, northern Khorasan and Ilam, respectively with coefficients of 0.029, 0.031, 0.037 and 0.038, have less benefit of industrial investment spillover Compared to other regions. Also, industrial investment spillover effects for different regions, very different from each other. As for some provinces, the indirect effects are much less than direct effects and for some provinces, the indirect effects are close to direct effects. This can be due to geographical location, politics, government regulation and exposure to developed provinces.
Hossien Amiri, Fatemeh Samadian,
Volume 8, Issue 30 (12-2017)
Abstract
Construction projects are the basic requirements of sustainable development and growth. Inefficient procedures of implementing the construction projects, regardless of our financial and administrative capacities, has imposed a large amount of unfinished and occasionally stopped projects to national economy. Since there are various components that affect the fate of projects, therefore, the main purpose of this paper is to answer this question that whether the political cycles affect the adoption and implementation of provincial construction projects or not? In order to answer this question, two hypotheses are considered in this paper. Therefore, GMM dynamic method was used to estimate the model and test hypothesis in the years 1997-2014. Hypothesis one: political cycles affect the fate of construction projects, and the second hypothesis: the impact of political cycles on the adoption and implementation of construction projects are larger in the year prior to political cycle (election). Therefore, in order to estimate the model and test the research hypothesis, provincial data during the years was used. Results of testing two hypotheses suggest that parliamentary and presidential political cycles have a significant positive correlation with the construction projects. Results also show that the presidential political cycle has a larger impact on construction projects, meaning that the impact of political cycles on the process of adopting and implementing the construction projects in the year prior to the political cycle is larger. In this regard, in order to eliminate the impacts of the governmental and parliamentary political cycle on construction projects, it is recommended to determine a competent authority that has the necessary qualifications as well as the sufficient degree of independence and supervision power over the project's Feasibility studies. The referenced mentioned will be approve projects based on objective justification-technical and district-based studies and it prevents the adoption of development plans based on the political considerations of the government and parliamentarians.
Karim Eslamloueyan, Hamideh Yazdanpanah, Zahra Khalilnezhad,
Volume 9, Issue 31 (3-2018)
Abstract
Risk-taking channel refers to the banks’ risky activities following the expansionary monetary policy. This channel may affect the financial and output stability. The risk-taking channel can influence bank soundness and hence be a source of financial instability and financial crisis. This topic has been the focus of many researches after the financial crisis of 2008. Using the structural vector autoregressive model, this paper investigates the existence of a risk-taking channel in Iran’s banking system for the period 2006:2-2015:1. The results of impulse-response functions confirm the presence of risk-taking channel in the Iran’s banking system. This channel is considered to be one of the sources of high non-performing loans in Iran’s banking system. Therefore, banking supervision and macro prudential policies may reduce the banks’ risky activities. Moreover, introducing risk-taking channel into the central bank’s loss function might be helpful in achieving financial stability and reducing the negative impacts of risk-taking channel on output and economic growth in Iran.
Somayeh Azami, Latif Poor-Karimi, Sahar Sadri,
Volume 9, Issue 31 (3-2018)
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to evaluate environmental productivity changes in Iranian manufacturing industries, with two-digit ISIC codes, during 2003-2014. For this purpose, Meta-frontier Non-radial Malmquist CO_2 emission Performance Index (MNMCPI) is used. This index considers technological heterogeneities of industries. Empirical results indicate that, during 2003-2014, MNMCPI has grown, on average; the highest growth rate belongs to industries with medium technology. Also, all three indices of EC, BPC and TGC, as MNMCPI components, experienced growth, on average. TGC has the greatest impact in industries with medium technology while BPC has the greatest impact in industries with high and low technology. In general, BPC had the greatest effect on MNMCPI growth.The highest growth rate in EC index is observed in industries with low technology and the highest growth rates in BPC index, which shows the effect of innovation, and in TGC index are observed in industries with medium technology. Therefore, based on TGC index, industries with medium technology level are leading technological industries. Rregression analysis shows that energy intensity has a negative and significant effect and R&D has a positive significant effect on MNMCPI.
Siab Mamipour, Hadis Abdi,
Volume 9, Issue 34 (12-2018)
Abstract
The business cycles are one of the most important economic indicators that they show the changes in economic activities during time. The study of business cycles is important because the understanding fluctuations in GDP and effective factors on these fluctuations help policy makers to plan better and more efficient. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of oil price shocks on business cycles dynamics in Iranian economy during period of 2005 to 2017 by using non-linear Markov switching model with the time varying transitional probabilities (MS-TVTP). So, first, the oil price shocks were extracted in four different modes, and then the effect of them on recession and boom regimes are investigated. The results of MS-TVTP model show that business cycles are affected by oil price fluctuations and shocks in Iran’s economy. The results indicate that, in all four modes which oil price shocks were calculated, the positive shocks in oil price increase the probability of staying in boom regime. Also positive oil price shocks increase the probability of transition from the recession regime in Iran’s economy. Also, with relative comparison of the coefficients of oil price shocks in the probability of staying in boom regime and transition from recession to boom regime, it can be argued that positive oil price shocks in recession period increases the probability of transition from recession more than the boom regime. In other words, oil price shocks in recession periods have a greater effect on rotation of economic situation and increase the probability of transition from recession regime, but in the boom regime, the positive oil price shock lead to increases the probability of staying in boom regime a little.
Hadi Keshavarz,
Volume 10, Issue 35 (3-2019)
Abstract
The labor market, as one of the four markets, plays an important role in economic growth and development. So review developments in the labor market because of its close relationship with developments in other sectors is of great importance. This study tries to examine the dynamics of the labor market by adjusting for a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the Iranian economy. After the model was solved, the obtained equations were linearized and their parameters were estimated using the economic data of Iran (2005-2017) by the Bayesian method. Comparing the model's moments with the economic momentum indicates the success of the model in real-world simulation (production, consumption, investment, unemployment, and participation rate). Impulse Response Functions Survey shows that participation rates are consistent with cyclic behavior. On the other hand, in response to shocks (monetary, oil revenues, government expenditures, and public sector employment), increased employment, but the unemployment rate has changed slightly due to the change in the participation rate and the change in the size of the active population, which represents the sustainability of the unemployment rate.
Shahryar Zaroki,
Volume 10, Issue 36 (6-2019)
Abstract
Given the importance of the issue and the undeniable role of the environment in the community's life, in this research, it is attempted to test the hypothesis of the relationship between the government size and composition of government expenditure (Current and developmental) on carbon dioxide emissions in Iran during 1971-2016 based on autoregressive distributed lag approach. To better explain, the above hypothesis is based on two parts of production (production industries) and Consumable (household, commercial, general; and transportation) has been investigated. Long-run results show that despite the fact that government size does not affect carbon dioxide emissions; the current cost ratio and developmental spending ratio of government respectively have a direct (undesirable) and reverse (favorable) effect on carbon dioxide emissions. In addition, the developmental spending ratio of government in both production and consumable sectors has a reverse effect on the carbon dioxide emissions of these sectors. However, the current cost ratio of government in both sectors does not have a significant effect. Energy intensity has a direct effect on carbon dioxide emissions in general format, and although the energy intensity of the production sector has no significant effect on the carbon dioxide emission ratio in this section but in the consumable sector, energy intensity is associated with direct (undesirable) effects on carbon dioxide emissions.
Mohammad Reza Monjazeb, Leyla Dehgani,
Volume 10, Issue 37 (10-2019)
Abstract
Life insurance is one of the most important economic instruments. Considering the important role of life insurance, this study investigates the life insurance capability in Iran. For this purpose, the Panel ARDL model has been used. Then, for the period 1990-2016, suitable models for the first group (Iran with the leading countries in the industry), the second group (Iran with the countries that were close to Iran in premiums) and the group Third (countries in two groups) were estimated. Based on models, the fitted value of life insurance premiums per capita in Iran is analyzed and compared as the potential or optimal level in each groups. The results showed that in each group, the actual life insurance premiums per capita in Iran are significantly lower than the optimal level. The capacity level of life insurance in Iran compared with first group is 46%, and compared with second group is about 42% and compared with third group is about 44%. The results indicate that Life insurance in our country has a high potential, and a large part of the insurance capacity in our country has not yet been fully acquired.
Hojjat Izadkhasti, Ali Akbar Arab Mazar, Amin Jalali,
Volume 10, Issue 37 (10-2019)
Abstract
Speculative demand in the land and housing market has a fundamental role in raising the price of land and housing and causing a diversion and invasion of the housing sector with the aim of profit. The government, by imposing a tax on rent of land and housing return, seeks to control speculation, allocate the land resources and urban housing and make money to build the urban infrastructure. In this study, optimal taxation on the return of housing capital is analyzed in the framework of a dynamic optimization model in Iran. Then, the calibration and sensitivity analysis of the macro variables was done to change the tax rate on housing capital return. Finally, using the GAMS software, the optimal path of macro variables was simulated in different scenarios during the period (2016-2040). In steady state, the results of the sensitivity analysis of macro variables indicate that by increasing the tax rate on the return of housing capital from zero to 25%, and decreasing the tax rate on the return of business capital from 25% to zero, increased the level of business capital per capita, production per capita and consumption per capita by 50.62%, 13.47% and 25.27% respectively, and decreased the level of housing capital per capita by 31.5%. Also, the results of the simulation indicate that the imposing tax on the return of housing capital at a rate of 4% compared to the current state of the economy, has led to upward the optimal path of business capital per capita, production per capita and business capital per capita and gone down housing capital in the long run during the transition period.
Javad Barati,
Volume 10, Issue 38 (12-2019)
Abstract
The impacts of the tourism industry on economic growth can be divided into two categories: direct and indirect (spillover) effects. In the field of tourism, direct impacts have been the subject of many studies but the analysis of spillover effects, particularly the effects from tourism infrastructure development, have received less attention. This study, with an analytical approach and along with examining the quantitative methods and analysis of the spillover effects of various variables affecting the development of the tourism industry, has investigated these impacts for each the variables and in each province. For this purpose, it has used spatial econometric models. The results confirmed the existence of spatial fixed effects and was applied Spatial Durbin Model (based on Lagrange coefficient test). The results show a positive and significant impact of transport infrastructure variables (road, rail, air) and travel agencies on the growth of value added in the tourism industry. Investigation of the spillover effects of infrastructure variables on growth of value added has shown that, except for Accommodation services, other tourism infrastructure variables have negative spillover effects for neighboring provinces, and also have positive spillover effects for other (non-neighbor) provinces. The negative spillover effects on the tourism growth of the neighbor provinces are due to competition impact and relative stability in the number of domestic tourists, and the positive spillover effects on non-neighbor provinces are due to factors such as the development of multi-purpose trips and increased market access.
Hoda Zobeiri, Mani Motameni,
Volume 11, Issue 40 (6-2020)
Abstract
Due to pension fund problems in Iran, the multi-pillar social insurance system has been released in 2017. According to this, the first pillar is regarding to low income groups and finance through the public fund. The second pillar is defined benefit and finance pay as you go. The third pillar is defined contribution and fully funded finance. Contributions are transferred to the individual account. The pension fund directors supposed to investments the accounts and to return the Contribution fund and its returns in retirement time. The main issue is that the old age pensions are not guaranteed in this plan and face with financial risk and inflation. Due to high inflation of Iran’s economy, the main challenge of third pillar plan is the inflation. This paper is main to inflation hedging in defined contribution pension plan by Investing in Tehran Stock-Exchange. By using NARDL model and 133 monthly data up to 2020 the results show that TSE index can hedge the inflation.
Majid Maddah, Mahla Sinaeyan,
Volume 11, Issue 40 (6-2020)
Abstract
Money Laundering (ML) reduces the confidence of investors to the financial market, worsen political instability and deviates resources allocation to unproductive sectors by weakening of financial institutions credit. In the ML, illegal resources are entered into the legal economy secretly and outside formal control whereby it has hidden nature. The aim of this paper is to study the different sizes ML and its changes in Iranian economy in the context of latent variables literature using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) over the period 1360 to 1396. According to the results from paper firstly, drug trafficking and theft crimes have a positive and significant effect on ML trend. Besides that, economic conditions influence an individual’s motivation to enter illegal activities. Secondly, ML growth is associated with decreasing economic growth and increasing the volume of cash that waste economic stability. Thirdly, ML has an upward trend which based on it can be anticipated that in spite of crimes growth, especially drug trafficking, the increasing trend of ML will continue.
