Showing 23 results for Bank
Dr. Hosein Sharifi-Renani, Dr. Sara Ghobadi, Farzaneh Amrollahi, Naghmeh Honarvar,
Volume 2, Issue 3 (3-2011)
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to consider the effects of monetary policy on production and prices through asset price channel (the housing price index) in Iran during 1368Q1 to 1387Q4. By Vector Error Correction (VEC) Model, the effect of monetary policy has been considered through this channel. In general, the results show that the debt of banks to the central bank as instruments of monetary policy through the housing price index, at least in the short run could increase the production level and decreases prices. Thus central bank with given facilities to banks can directly and through the housing price index strengthen production level and control prices in the short run. Also we found that shock of the required reserve ratio in general, directly affects production levels and don’t have any effect on production level and prices through the housing price index. Therefore, in using of these tool as instruments of monetary policy, the housing price index channel in monetary transmission policy, has a little effect and only on the production.
- Mohammad Mehdi Mojahedi Moakhar, Dr Rahim Dallali Esfahani, Dr Saeid Samadi, Dr Rasoul Bakhshi Dastjerdi,
Volume 2, Issue 5 (10-2011)
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the source of fractional reserve banking and to review the literature on bank credit. Evaluating the operational procedure of this banking model demonstrates a new concept of credit money shaping aspect and its affect on the practical economy. The difference in due dates between depositing and receiving loan that causes Ex-nihio money to exist, the effect of this money on prices along with economic instability are among the issues that have occupied the critic scholar's minds in fractional reserve banking realm. In this paper, the effects of the fractional reserve banking model on the consumption behavior are analyzed. Also, the view points of the critics of this banking model are addressed. In this regard, an inter-generational consumption behavior model based on Maurice Allais's perspectives has developed. Results show that optimizing the existing model is the true test of the consumption instability in a permanent state in the fractional reserve banking realm. Also, according to the results there exits the possibility of instable capital repletion under certain circumstances.
Dr Akbar Komijani, Hossein Tavakoliyanh,
Volume 2, Issue 6 (12-2011)
Abstract
According to Taylor (1993) rule, the monetary authority responds to deviations of output and of inflation from their targets through nominal interest rate fluctuations regarded as policy instrument. Another specification that has received considerable attention is that policymakers may have asymmetric preferences with regard to their objectives during recessions and expansions. Since according to Law for Usury (Interest) Free Banking of Iran, the objective of the central bank is not the control of interest rate, instead it is money growth rate which is used as an instrument, in this study we introduce a money growth rate reaction function and we use it to test the asymmetry in central bank behavior during recessions and expansions. The estimation results of a Markov Switching model for the period 1367:1 to 1387:2 show that the central bank sensitivity toward output is more during the recessions while its sensitivity toward inflation is more during the expansions.
Parviz Mohammadzadeh, Alireza Jalili Marand,
Volume 3, Issue 8 (6-2012)
Abstract
There are a lot of techniques and methods for prediction of bankruptcy among them “Statistical methods” or econometrics techniques are more popular. As dependent variable in our study is qualitative it is convenient to use qualitative discrete models. Mixed Logit model is one of the powerful and flexible techniques of discrete choices that allow the coefficients to be random with distribution function. Explanatory variables are financial ratios which derived from Zmijewski’s model. The sample data are from Tehran Stock Exchange’s Brokerage Companies during 2001-2008. We selected two random samples, one for estimation and another for prediction power test. Results show that the degree of successfulness of the model is over 90 percent.
Dr Ahmad Googerdchian, Simin Mirhashemi,
Volume 4, Issue 11 (3-2013)
Abstract
Since the liquidity shortage has some undesirable consequences for banks, the evaluation of different strategies of providing liquidity is very important. In normal market conditions, there are plenty of adjustment strategies available for banks which allow them to have higher liquid assets when they face higher payment obligations. This paper mainly focuses on three strategies of liquidity management in country's banking system in above conditions.
The main aim of current paper is to test three strategies of liquidity management based on the recommendations of Basel Committee in the condition of increasing the payment obligations of the banking network, by applying Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) method. We used the data from 20 Iranian commercial banks for the period 2001-2009.
Results show that there is a positive relationship between payment obligations and securities stock growth rates and also between payment obligations and repayments of loans growth rates. However there is a diverse relation between payment obligations and long-term loans growth rates.
Dr Alireza Erfani, Azadeh Talebbeydokhti,
Volume 4, Issue 12 (7-2013)
Abstract
The commitment and forward-looking behavior of central bank is of great importance. Commitment imposes less social costs on the central bank and the public. However, while there is wide agreement on the importance of commitment, there is much less consensus on how to implement commitment through targeting or instrumental rules.
In this paper, we have estimated a basic New Keynesian model in Iran economy based on quarterly data over a sample period for 1990-2010. Then, we introduced a kind of instrumental rules that is called Speed Limit rule. The main feature of this rule is that the output gap is replaced by the changes in the output gap in the central bank's loss function. Then, by calculating appropriate weights under alternative targeting rules, we showed that this rule has the lowest social costs. Then, assuming the use of interest rate as primary monetary policy by the central bank, it is optimal to consider the role of the changes in the output gap (i.e. speed limit rule) in addition to the role of inflation and the output gap. As we expected, the estimation results of this instrumental rule in Iran economy showed that this rule has not been used for determining the interest rate. In other words, among the variables considered, only inflation rate has a positive and significant relationship with the interest rate, and the output gap and the changes in the output gap are not used in determining the interest rate.
Farhad Khodadadkashi, Mohammadreza Hajian,
Volume 5, Issue 15 (3-2014)
Abstract
This article measures the market power in the loan and deposit markets in banking industry of Iran, including 10 state-owned and 4 private banks, during 1380-1389 (2001-2010) based on the evaluating of Lerner indices. To achieving this objective, a stochastic frontier cost function has been applied then market power was calculated. The main results of paper show over the observed period although market power in loan market has reduced, in deposit market it has increased. Outcome of calculations indicates some fluctuations in Lerner indices especially during (2005-10). So, it shows importance of economic policy aimed at removing the barriers of entry to market and regulation of them in order to make these markets more competitive.
Mohammad Nabi Shahiki Tash, Zahra Sheidaei, Elham Shivai,
Volume 5, Issue 16 (7-2014)
Abstract
This paper based on the new empirical industrial organization model (NEIO) examines the impact of market concentration and cost efficiency on bank's profit rate margin in Iran. The study uses the model developed by Azzam (1997) to evaluate the market power and cost efficiency for 15 active banks in the banking industry. The empirical findings indicate a decrease in the market power of banks during the period 2001-2011. It is also shown that the conjectural variations index associated with the loans is -0.96, while demand for the loans is completely inelastic where its value is near to 0.087. Additionally, The market power and cost efficiency in the banking industry have been estimated 0.37 and -0.30 respectively meaning a decrease about 0.3 percent for the bank's profit rate due to the efficiency of cost and an increase about 0.07 percent due to the concentration.
Saeed Farahani Fard, Majid Feshari, Yavar Khanzadeh,
Volume 6, Issue 20 (7-2015)
Abstract
Financial institution as a non-bank financial institutions, institutions that are active in mediating funds in financial markets. Services are in many ways similar to the services provided by banks. Because the relationship between the development of non-bank financial institutions and Iranian gross domestic production (GDP) seem important. In this context, the main objective of this study was to investigate the effect of non-bank financial institutions in the areas of facilities of GDP contracts with other variables such as per capita GDP and employment effects on the labor force for the period 1999Q1-2013Q4. To estimate the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) is used to model estimation results indicate a significant positive impact on the development of non-bank financial institutions and facilities with regard to Islamic contracts. The per capita income and employment variables have a significant positive impact on GDP respectively.
Kiomars Sohaili, Shahram Fattahi, Mahnaz Sorkhvandi,
Volume 6, Issue 21 (10-2015)
Abstract
Monetary policy is one of the most important macroeconomic policies which could be used for achieving economic targets such as reducing the output gap and reducing the inflation's deviation from it's target level. These policies can be implemented through the control of volume of money or the rate of interest. Based on economic theories, the Central Bank should conduct monetary policies within a rule-based framework. In periods of positive or negative output gap or when inflation's deviation from it's target level is positive or negative, different monetary policies should be adopted. Assessment of Central Bank monetary policy's conformity to rules and the consistency of these policies with economic theories like Taylor's theory, is of vital importance. In order to evaluate the consistency of central bank monetary policies with economic theories, this study investigates the monetary strategies of Central Bank regarding the inflation's deviation and output gap during the period 1974-2013. It applies the Bootstrap method for this purpose. The result shows that Central Bank does not counteract the output gap during the periods of recession and boom and it's reactions to the inflation's deviation is in the reverse direction.
Parviz Rostamzadeh, Ruhollah Shahnazi, Mogammad Sadeq Neisani,
Volume 9, Issue 32 (7-2018)
Abstract
Credit risk is due to that recipients of the facility, deliberately or involuntarily, don’t have ability to repay their debts to the banking system that this risk is critical in Iran compared to the global. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of macroeconomic variables on credit risk of Iranian banking industry during the 2006-2016 years and also simulation and prediction of credit risk situation in 2017 under different stress scenarios, bu using stress test. Data used in this research is time series and seasonal. In order to implement a stress test and achieve the purpose of the research, first, the effective macroeconomic variables and the rate of each one's influence on the credit risk are determined using Auto-Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL). Accordingly, the inflation rate, exchange rate, unemployment rate and housing index in total have a positive effect and variables GDP, the interest rate of bank facilities and the volume of concessional facilities to both government and non-governmental sectors, have a negative impact on credit risk. In the following, using the stress test, simulation of critical situations and prediction of credit risk values in 2017. This was done in three scenarios with titles of mild stress, extreme stress, and hyperstress that in each scenario, different shocks are applied to the variables affecting credit risk. The results of the stress test and scenarios show that the compulsory reduction of interest rates on bank facilities in all three scenarios, initially in the second quarter of 2017, leads to a reduction in credit risk, but rising exchange rates, rising inflation, falling economic growth, as well as accumulation of past values of credit risk, has led to a rapid increase in credit risk and also in scenarios with more severs shocks, has led to catastrophic increase of credit risk in later periods in all scenarios.
Mahdi Ghaemi Asl, Elahe Ghasemi Nik,
Volume 10, Issue 35 (3-2019)
Abstract
In this research, the factors affecting assets quality in banking system of Iran and some implications for creating appropriate buffers of liquidity and non-performing loans in bank assets management has been investigated. In order to that, statistical data related to macroeconomic variables and financial statements of 30 banks from 2006 to 2016 have been used in the framework of a dynamic panel specification. The results indicate that there is a significant relationship between inflation rate, domestic gross production growth rate, bank share of total revenues, market Structure and bank liquidity with asset quality, but the growth rate of facilities and special and general reserves for non-performing loans have no significant effect on asset quality. Thus, the framework and the amount of special and general reserves for non-performing loans (unlike the liquidity buffer) failed to provide the necessary buffer to improve the quality of bank assets; so, one of the most important reasons for the persistent aggravation and lack of management of the volume of non-performing loans in banking system is dysfunctional and non-observance of the law in the maintenance of special and general reserves. The main requirement for correcting these conditions is to closely monitor the volume of reserves before refinancing and double overdraft from the central bank and other banks and credit institutions.
Seyed Parviz Jalili Kamju, Ramin Khochiani,
Volume 11, Issue 39 (3-2020)
Abstract
Solving the Water conflict and optimal allocation of common water resources are the most important service of cooperative game theory to water economics. Zayandehrud basin is the most important disputed basin in several neighboring provinces in the first class basin of Iran's central plateau. The purpose of this research is to use the game theory with application of Bankruptcy approach (conflicting claims) in order to optimally allocate surface and underground water resources in the Zayandehrud basin, with regard to Zayandehrud need(tourism sector demand), water transfer to Yazd and Kashan, Gavkhoni wetland water use and demand of three sectors: drinking, mining, and agriculture. In order to estimate the river natural water right (tourism sector demand), the Montana method (tenant) was used under three different scenarios: weak, acceptable and optimal tenant during the period 1963-2017, which was 77.7, 130.5, and 466.5 m3 respectively yearly estimated. The conflicting claims theory in various scenarios for the river water right (tourism sector) showed that in all three proposed scenarios based on five different bankruptcy theory rules, Proportional, Constrained Equal Wards, Constrained Equal Losses, Talmud, Random Arrival, CEA rule was the most desirable method for 5 sectors (except agriculture). In order to choose a more equitable method, the Gini coefficient and the Lorenz curve were used which indicated that CEA rule has less inequality than other rules. Thus, regard to the increasing demand gap in the Zayandehrud Basin, water allocation based on the criteria of bankruptcy theory is proposed.
Behrouz Sadeghi Amroabadi, Davoud Mahmoudinia,
Volume 11, Issue 39 (3-2020)
Abstract
In monetary and financial literature, financial crises include a wide range of crises. But in general, there are three important types of financial crisis, including the currency crisis. The banking crisis and the debt crisis. The aim of this study is to simultaneously analyze the occurrence of banking, debt and currency crises, known as the three crises in Iran. For this purpose, first to determine the indicators related to banking crises, currency and debt payments and using logistics and self-regression vector models during the 1980 to 2017 seasonally, we have discussed the relationship between these three crises. The results show that the three banking crises, debt and currency, affect each other. The short-term results of the VAR model showed the effect of the banking crisis and the currency crisis on the debt crisis is positive and significant, indicating an increase in the likelihood of a banking crisis and the currency will increase the debt of the government and the country. Also, the effects of banking and debt crises on the currency crisis are positive and significant. This indicates the existence of causal relationship between banking crises and debt on the currency crisis. The results of the Logit model show that the effect of inflation variables, liquidity growth and the growth of the exchange rate on the indicators of the three crises that are significant and positive in most models.
Hassan Dargahi, Mojtaba Ghasemi, Sajjad Fatollahi,
Volume 11, Issue 40 (6-2020)
Abstract
This study investigates the relation between bounced checks and economic growth through the banking credit risk channel by estimation of a simultaneous equation system with panel data for 31 Iranian provinces covers the years from 2011 to 2015. For this purpose, after identifying determinants of the bounced checks, the relations of this variable with the non-performing loans, banking loans and economic growth are evaluated. The results confirm the positive relationship between the bounced checks to GDP ratio and the prices index, whereas the impacts of output deviation from trend and the index of enforcement of laws on the bounced checks are negative. In times of stagflation, with the decreasing possibility of defaults, the bounced checks tend to grow. Also, with the development of legal and judicial system in the country with a view to boosting institutional and governance quality, the number of bounced checks decreases on the scale of economic activities. On the other hand, the number of bounced checks after fixing the control variables will lead to an increase of non-performing loans and the bank credit risk. Meanwhile the impact of bank loans on economic growth through the productivity channel is meaningful and positive. Therefore, in the Iranian economy the increase of bounced checks through the channel of bank loaning power will have a negative influence on economic growth.
Dr Mohammad Noferesti, Dr Mehdi Yazdani, Nasim Babaei, Hasanali Ghanbarimaman,
Volume 12, Issue 43 (3-2021)
Abstract
Banking system is one the important sectors of economy and as vital institution of money market, plays a very significant role. Also, due to the nature of the banking system performance, the activities of banks have a close relationship with the exchange rate changes. This paper tries to assess the effects of exchange rate variations on macroeconomic variables via the banking system using a macro-econometric model and approach of bounding ARDL during 1973-2017. The results indicated that an increase in the exchange rate through non-performance loans and long-term deposits will led to decreased credit providing by the banking system. On the other hand, an increase in the exchange rate through the net open position and banks’ capital account had a positive impact on banks’ credit provision. However, the negative impact of a change in the non-performance loans and long-term deposits is stronger than the positive impact of the net open position. In addition, the decreasing trend of providing credit by banking system had a negative effect on investment. Finally, an increase in the exchange rate causes a decrease in the long-term deposits and the money multiplier which has a negative effect on liquidity and price level. An increase in the exchange rate through the capacity utilitization rate had a negative impact on GDP. Also an increase in the exchange rate led to increased liquidity and price level.
Mohammad Feghhi Kashani, Majid Omidi,
Volume 12, Issue 44 (7-2021)
Abstract
The aim of this study is to theoretically investigate the role of the bank deposit market structure in how effective micro and macro prudential policies in determining the regulatory capital of banks in combination with monetary policy. To achieve this, a partial equilibrium analytical framework has been developed that includes rational economic entities and the possibility of contagion risk in the banking system in order to achieve more explicit and tangible results. In general, it will be shown that the imperfect structure of the bank deposit market as a policy transmission channel (which is less considered in the literature) can significantly change the micro and macro implications of such policies. Specifically, the effects of these policies on allocation and stabilization efficiency will be followed in terms of the types of conceivable equilibria for deposit rates, expected net returns, expected markup, and the level of expected effort of banks operating in the banking system. Expected markup capital elasticity of banking system smaller than one at the micro and macro levels play a special role in prudential policies. Each bank interactively with other banks would shape its solutions and expectations towards upcoming states of the economy (in so doing customizing its balance sheet asset side) along with key determinants for its solvency in respecting its financial obligations to depositors and whereby touching depositors’ confidence in its performance so hard that seizing utmost share in deposit market by bidding appropriate deposit rate. The deposit rate together with the level of monitoring efforts would further hit banking sector contagion risk drawing in its associated externalities and under well-defined conditions could expose the banking system to higher fragility.
Azadeh Mehrabians, Parima Bahrami Zonooz, Roya Seifipour, Narciss Aminrashti,
Volume 12, Issue 45 (11-2021)
Abstract
Capital adequacy ratio is one of the most important indicators in analyzing the situation of banks in order to manage banks against risks such as bankruptcy and their inability to meet obligations. This controls the risk management of banks. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of banking variables on the capital adequacy ratio (CAR) in private banks in Iran during the period 2011-2018 and in Malaysia quarterly during the period 2012:01-2019:04 by Threshold Auto regression Method. The results showed that the CAR in the low regime with four lags had a negative effect and in the high regime had a direct effect on the CAR of Iranian banks. But it did not have a significant impact on the Malaysian banking system. The share of bank deposits in Iran in both regimes has a negative effect on the CAR. But it had a direct effect on the Malaysian banking system in the high regime. The size of the bank in the low regime had a direct effect on the CAR of private Iranian banks. But in Malaysia, in both regimes, it had a direct impact on the capital adequacy ratio. The share of credits in both regimes had a direct impact on the CAR in Iran. But in the Malaysian banking system in both regimes had a negative impact on the CAR. Liquidity in the low regime has a negative effect on the CAR in private Iranian banks. But in the high regime did not have a significant effect. While in the high regime, liquidity has a direct and significant effect on the CAR in the banking system of Malaysia. Returns of assets in the low regime do not have a significant effect on the CAR of Iranian banks. But returns of assets in the low regime have a direct and significant effect and in the high regime have a negative effect on the CAR in the Malaysian banking system. Financial leverage in the low regime does not have a significant effect on the CAR of Iranian banks, but in the Malaysian banking system in the low regime has a negative effect and in the high regime has a direct effect.
Dr Hossein Samsami Mazrae Akhoond, Mr Ahmad Bakhtiyari,
Volume 13, Issue 49 (12-2022)
Abstract
The unmanaged control of liquidity growth has always been the concern of policymakers due to its negative consequences. Recently, policymakers have focused on the needing to control the liquidity growth. One of the liquidity drivers is the government borrowing from the central bank. In this regard, governments have concerned for the issue of not borrowing from the central bank since the 2000s onwards. Although governments are limiting themselves for this borrowing, they force banks and financial institutions to borrow from that source. For this purpose, this study designs a macroeconomic model by including the net debt of the public sector to the central bank as well as to banks and financial institutions via the government's financial balance channel. This model shows the relationships of economic variables in the framework of a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, considering nominal and real frictions. The results confirm the reliability of the model for simulating the economy of Iran after determining the input values and calibrating the parameters of the model using the Iran's economy data during 2000-2020. The findings from the research data show that the net increase in government sector debt to banks and non-banking credit institutions has a positive effect on investment, in such a way that new liquidity by the government obtained from institutions and banks It has been produced in the form of new deposits at the disposal of the department. The net impulse of public sector debt to the central bank causes an increase in consumption in the utility function and the total consumption of a combination of public goods and services provided by the government as well as private consumption goods and services. Also, the net impulse of public sector debt to the central bank causes an increase in inflation and a slight growth of production, and the net impulse of public sector debt to banks and credit institutions increases inflation and stimulates production.
Dr Leila Torki, Mr Omid Ghorbanzadeh,
Volume 13, Issue 49 (12-2022)
Abstract
The state of development of technology in today's world is such that the development process and the future of the world in the field of technology cannot be accurately predicted. In the meantime, blockchain technology has been highly regarded as a revolutionary technology. This technology is a protocol that allows information to be exchanged directly between contracting parties in a network without the need for intermediaries. Blockchain has been one of the most important technology trends in recent years, and banking is one of those sectors that many experts believe will accept major changes from blockchain technology. Considering the revolutionary impact that blockchain technology can have on the banking system, it will be very important to examine the impact of this technology on the banking system, which represents how to create, present and acquire value in this sector. The purpose of this research is to investigate the impact of this technology in the banking system. In order to achieve this goal, the method of data collection is the type of document-library research and sample statistics, and it is quantitative-qualitative in nature, and the method is a survey, and the tools used are questionnaires and field observations. According to this research, it confirms the effectiveness of blockchain technology on the banking system. Finally, considering that blockchain technology will challenge almost all the core sectors of the banking system, it is necessary for banks to adopt a suitable strategy to deal with the threats and use the opportunities resulting from this technology.
