Morteza Behrouzifar, Ali Emami Meibodi, Abdolrassoul Ghassemi, Mohammad Bagher Heshmatzadeh,
Volume 8, Issue 27 (3-2017)
Abstract
Expectation has an important role in oil price fluctuation and it seems which one of the important factors is for changing supply behaviour however oil price changes. Identification of mentioned expectation could help us for partly and continuously control the oil market situation.one of the important factor that could have effects on future oil price expectation is volume of current reserve oil and specifically OPEC members reserves. For OPEC members not only high reserve oil is prestige but also give them chance for having more OPEC production share however after applying market sharing system based on production for OPEC members in early 1980s,volume of reserve oil considered as a main benchmark and after that started increase reserve oil competition among OPEC members. In this paper tried study transition s of Iran’s oil reserves and its effectiveness on the oil producer’s countries’ information and also its accuracy. According to some statement reserve oil extra announcement could create chaos in oil market. Based on this study there is no any relation between increasing of oil reserves and oil production changes in Iran as one of the OPEC member's country and it seems extra reserve oil announcement more than reality is a hidden competition among members for getting more credit.
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Volume 8, Issue 28 (7-2017)
Abstract
Addressing the economic components of the fiscal regime of the Iran Petroleum Contract (IPC), in this article the fiscal simulation of the contract has been developed. Most important fiscal parameters of the contract are: Capex and Opex, Cost of Money, remuneration fee, amortization period and R-factor. Technical information of the Darquin field (phase 3) has been used as a case study for this paper. The results show some merits and demerits. The most important output of the model is that the contractor's take is so small (about 3% in the discounted manner and the IRR of Contractor can’t exceed some amount (14.6%) by price increasing, showing the service nature of the contract. According to the results, remuneration fee is the most significant factor which can affect the IRR and take of the contractor, so its level should be determined carefully regarding the fiscal simulation model. Another issue which should be paid attention to is the determination of R-factor and remuneration fee slides. The fiscal regime is regressive in the levels of price lower than $50 and is progressive in the higher levels, but the profitability of the contractor in the higher levels is constant in absolute terms which can reduce the attractiveness of the contract. One of the major defects of the contract is the Gold-plating issue which is raised because of using R-Factor mechanism. Using the saving index can mitigate the problem notably.
Mrs Nafiseh Behradmehr, Mr Mohsen Mehrara, Mr Mohammad Mazraati, Mr Hadi Dadafarid,
Volume 8, Issue 29 (10-2017)
Abstract
In this paper, risk-premium (the difference between the future prices and expected future spot price) in US crude oil futures market over the period of 1989:1 to 2012: 11 is investigated, and then variability of risk-premium through time is explained. In addition, risk premium in different time horizons of US crude oil futures market is predicted using BVAR and VAR models. The results showed that significantly 10% risk-premium existence in US crude oil futures market is approved for all time horizons (one month, two months, three months and four months), and on the other hand,by comparing RMSE of BVAR and VAR models, the results generally confirmed better predictions of risk premium by BVAR models in comparison with VAR models.
Firouz Fallahi, Reza Ranjpour, Tohid Shokri,
Volume 8, Issue 29 (10-2017)
Abstract
The stochastic and β convergences of per capita energy use (PCEU) in the OPEC member countries are examined during the period 1971-2011. Several unit root tests, including the test introduced by Lee and Strazicich (2003) are used to examine the existence of the stochastic convergence in the series. Next, to study the possibility of the existence of β-convergence, the approach of Perron and Yabu (2009) is employed. Both methods allow for an endogenous structural break point in the series. In addition, the approach of Perron and Yabu (2009) is robust to the presence of a unit root and the results remain the same for the unit-root and stationary series. The results show that the PCEU in Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Nigeria, Qatar, and Venezuela had experienced beta convergence during the first regime (the period before the break point). In the second regime, the PCEU in Algeria, Angola, Saudi Arabia, Ecuador, UAE, Iran, Iraq, Libya, and Qatar shows a convergent pattern. In addition, the estimated break points are clustered and correspond to the major energy and economic crises.
Musa Khoshkalam,
Volume 8, Issue 29 (10-2017)
Abstract
Price policies are one of the most permissive policies in Iranian economic for controlling energy carrier's consumption. In addition, the non-price policies such as energy efficiency improvement are effective for controlling energy carrier's consumption. This paper assesses the economic impacts of energy efficiency improvement (in gasoline, gasoil and electric) as a non-price policy. For the purposes of this paper computable general equilibrium (CGE) model based on social accounting matrix (SAM) is used. The social accounting matrix is aggregated in 12 activities and 14 commodities. The CGE model blocks are: production block, institution block, trade block, Investment block and system constraint block. The results show that, first 10 percent improvement in energy efficiency makes the highest rebound effects (of gasoline) in the transport sector with 29.8 percent, the highest rebound effect (of gasoil) in the transport sector with 24.7% and the highest rebound effect (of electricity) in the other services sector with 24.5 percent. Second 10 percent improvement in energy efficiency causes the greatest increase in the output level of sectors (related to gasoline, gasoil and electricity) respectively, in the "transport", "transport" and "other services" by 0.62, 0.51 and 0.32 percent. Thirdly 10 percent improvement in energy efficiency increases the GDP respectively 0.17, 0.15 and 0.11 percent.
Samira Motaghi,
Volume 8, Issue 30 (12-2017)
Abstract
The present paper reviews the impact of the development situation of 3 groups of selected developing countries on environment over the period of 1990 – 2014 using by Environment Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. For this, it uses economic, social, human and political development factors with the variables that are as follows: GDP, GDP2 and energy consumption as economic development indicators, Urbanization as social and life expectancy at birth and fertility rates as human development indicators and good governance used as political indicator. The results show an inverted U-shaped relationship real GDP per capita and CO2 emission in oil-exporting and whole sample and a U-shaped in non-oil – exporting countries. In addition, the estimated results show a meaningful relationship between the CO2 emission and real GDP, energy use fertility rate, expectancy at birth and urbanization (development situation) in all three groups of the country.
Zohreh Shirani Fakhr,
Volume 8, Issue 30 (12-2017)
Abstract
In this study, we estimate the demand for natural gas in the subsection manufacture of basic metals of Iran using structural time series model (STSM) over the period of time 1981-2013. Such model contains unobservable elements which have been transported to state space model with the use of kalman filter and is estimated by implementing maximum likelihood approach. Also, because the Targeting of Subsidies Plan was approved by the Iranian parliament at the end of 2010, so we evaluate the role of this plan on energy demand of industrial subsectors. Finding of the research is that, first of all the nature of the trend is smooth one. Secondly, it is changing on a nonlinear basis. The estimated demand function shows that price elasticity for natural gas in the long and short run, correspondingly, are (-0.30) and (-0.79) and production elasticities of natural gas in the short and long run, correspondingly, are (0.17) and (0.38). Furthermore, Cross elasticity for electricity and gasoline in the long and short run, correspondingly, are substitute and complementary goods. In addition, the result of evaluating effect of the Targeting of Subsidies Plan show that estimated natural gas demand functions can explain the impact of this policy.
Somayeh Azami, Latif Poor-Karimi, Sahar Sadri,
Volume 9, Issue 31 (3-2018)
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to evaluate environmental productivity changes in Iranian manufacturing industries, with two-digit ISIC codes, during 2003-2014. For this purpose, Meta-frontier Non-radial Malmquist CO_2 emission Performance Index (MNMCPI) is used. This index considers technological heterogeneities of industries. Empirical results indicate that, during 2003-2014, MNMCPI has grown, on average; the highest growth rate belongs to industries with medium technology. Also, all three indices of EC, BPC and TGC, as MNMCPI components, experienced growth, on average. TGC has the greatest impact in industries with medium technology while BPC has the greatest impact in industries with high and low technology. In general, BPC had the greatest effect on MNMCPI growth.The highest growth rate in EC index is observed in industries with low technology and the highest growth rates in BPC index, which shows the effect of innovation, and in TGC index are observed in industries with medium technology. Therefore, based on TGC index, industries with medium technology level are leading technological industries. Rregression analysis shows that energy intensity has a negative and significant effect and R&D has a positive significant effect on MNMCPI.
Naser Khiabani, Mr. Mohammad Amin Naderian,
Volume 9, Issue 32 (7-2018)
Abstract
In this paper, we have utilized a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model in order to examine the structural changes in the transmission mechanisms of oil price shocks in the global crude oil market over the period of 1985-2016. In this setting, the contemporaneous response of real oil price and crude oil production to flow oil supply shock, flow oil demand shock, and speculative demand shocks are explored. Results obtained from using Monte Carlo Markov Chain estimation method along with the identification approach proposed by Killian and Murphy (2014) reveal that the impact responses of oil production to the structural shocks follows a decreasing trend throughout the past three decades mainly due to the erosion of global oil production spare capacity. The reaction of oil production to flow oil supply shock is also estimated to be greater than other demand shocks over all dates. Moreover, the contemporaneous impact of structural shocks on real oil prices fail to show a clear pattern, however, jumps experienced in periods where uncertainty heightened and risk aversion strengthened is distinct. The reaction of real crude oil price to flow oil supply shock was more pronounced in 1990s and the period subsequent to oil price plunge in 2014. By contrast, the role of flow oil demand shock in real crude oil price fluctuations was dominant over the period of 2000-2014. While the oil production reacted more strongly to speculative demand shock rather than flow oil demand shocks, the response of real oil price to these two oil demand shocks is completely reversed.
Javid Bahrami, Davoud Daneshjafari, Mohamad Sayadi, Pegah Pasha,
Volume 9, Issue 33 (10-2018)
Abstract
Oil Revenue Management (ORM) has always been one of the key challenges facing the oil rich developing countries. In this regard, the main objective of this paper is to provide a dynamic macroeconometric model adapted to the state of the Iranian economy. Also, the assessment of the dynamics of the National Development Fund (NDF) and its impact on macroeconomic variables are discussed. The results of the study, based on the out of sample and the four scenarios (the existence and absence of the NDF, the change in the share of the fund from oil revenues, the Fund's floating share of oil revenues, and the scenario of the fund exposure with temporary and permanent oil shocks) indicate that, The creation of a NDF in the short term will not improve the situation of macroeconomic variables, and the positive effects of such a policy will appear in the long run. The reason for this the private sector investment was time consuming and, consequently, the increase in non-oil sector production in the economy. Nevertheless, it is possible in the short term that by designing foreign exchange or budgetary policies, the initial downturn in the level of economic activity may be reduced by the stablization of the fund. Moreover, as in the mechanism of the fund, the floating share of oil revenues (adopting an anticyclical policy in allocating oil revenues to the fund) will help to reduce the negative consequences of shocks in the short run, because the lowest initial inflationary pressures, fluctuations in exchange rates and the net debt of the public sector occurs under this scenario.
Musa Khoshkalam Khosroshahi,
Volume 9, Issue 34 (12-2018)
Abstract
Considering that the improvement of energy efficiency and the resulting rebound effect in the literature of energy economics is very important, hence the present paper uses the ARDL approach to estimate the direct rebound effect of the natural gas consumption in the residential sector in Iran. For this purpose, data from the period of 1986-2016 and the methodology based on the estimation of natural gas demand elasticity according to decomposed prices have been used. The results show that, firstly, the direct rebound effect of the natural gas consumption in the residential sector exists and, as a result, energy savings due to improved energy efficiency will be less than expected. Secondly, the direct rebound effect of natural gas demand in the short run is 69% and in the long run is 78%. Also, the findings indicate that there is no backfire effect of residential consumption of natural gas. Therefore, it is recommended to apply policies to improve the efficiency of natural gas consumption in Iran's domestic sector.
Siab Mamipour, Hadis Abdi,
Volume 9, Issue 34 (12-2018)
Abstract
The business cycles are one of the most important economic indicators that they show the changes in economic activities during time. The study of business cycles is important because the understanding fluctuations in GDP and effective factors on these fluctuations help policy makers to plan better and more efficient. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of oil price shocks on business cycles dynamics in Iranian economy during period of 2005 to 2017 by using non-linear Markov switching model with the time varying transitional probabilities (MS-TVTP). So, first, the oil price shocks were extracted in four different modes, and then the effect of them on recession and boom regimes are investigated. The results of MS-TVTP model show that business cycles are affected by oil price fluctuations and shocks in Iran’s economy. The results indicate that, in all four modes which oil price shocks were calculated, the positive shocks in oil price increase the probability of staying in boom regime. Also positive oil price shocks increase the probability of transition from the recession regime in Iran’s economy. Also, with relative comparison of the coefficients of oil price shocks in the probability of staying in boom regime and transition from recession to boom regime, it can be argued that positive oil price shocks in recession period increases the probability of transition from recession more than the boom regime. In other words, oil price shocks in recession periods have a greater effect on rotation of economic situation and increase the probability of transition from recession regime, but in the boom regime, the positive oil price shock lead to increases the probability of staying in boom regime a little.
Sajad Rajabi, Davood Manzoor,
Volume 10, Issue 35 (3-2019)
Abstract
In this paper, the Expanding extraction method of Dietzenbacher & Lahr (2013) is used and in the form of Input-Output general equilibrium model. The article assesses and evaluates the importance of the energy sector and its sub-sections in the Iranian economy based on Iranian input-output table of 2017 that is updated by RAS approach. In this way, the 10% reduction in the supply of coal, crude oil and natural gas, electricity and gas consumed has been investigated in four scenarios. Additionally, in the fifth scenario, by aggregating energy subsectors into one sector, the 10% reduction in the supply of energy in interaction with 75 sectors is measured. The results of this simulated model show that by reducing the supply of energy sector, "Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products" will drop by 9% in value. Respectively, "Transport via pipeline" and "Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products" reduced by 4% and 2% in value added
Vahid Majed, Hossein Mirshojaeian Hosseini , Samira Riazi ِdoust,
Volume 10, Issue 35 (3-2019)
Abstract
Homogeneity of groups in studies those use cross section and multi-level data is important. Most studies in economics especially panel data analysis need some kinds of homogeneity to ensure validity of results. This paper represents the methods known as clustering and homogenization of groups in cross section studies based on enviro-economics components. For this, a sample of 92 countries which produce the most greenhouse gases including CO2, clustered based on 18 criteria. Those criteria reduced to five primary components using factor analysis. Clustering of countries done by HCPC (Hierarchical Clustering on Principal Component) method. All 92 countries were clustered in 7 different groups. For each group properties of countries indicates the homogeneity of each cluster. In cross section analysis with many sections, especially analysis based on panel data, clustering, increases assurance of expected homogeneity and validity of result.
Shahryar Zaroki,
Volume 10, Issue 36 (6-2019)
Abstract
Given the importance of the issue and the undeniable role of the environment in the community's life, in this research, it is attempted to test the hypothesis of the relationship between the government size and composition of government expenditure (Current and developmental) on carbon dioxide emissions in Iran during 1971-2016 based on autoregressive distributed lag approach. To better explain, the above hypothesis is based on two parts of production (production industries) and Consumable (household, commercial, general; and transportation) has been investigated. Long-run results show that despite the fact that government size does not affect carbon dioxide emissions; the current cost ratio and developmental spending ratio of government respectively have a direct (undesirable) and reverse (favorable) effect on carbon dioxide emissions. In addition, the developmental spending ratio of government in both production and consumable sectors has a reverse effect on the carbon dioxide emissions of these sectors. However, the current cost ratio of government in both sectors does not have a significant effect. Energy intensity has a direct effect on carbon dioxide emissions in general format, and although the energy intensity of the production sector has no significant effect on the carbon dioxide emission ratio in this section but in the consumable sector, energy intensity is associated with direct (undesirable) effects on carbon dioxide emissions.
Ali Takroosta, Parisa Mohajeri, Taymour Mohammadi, Abbas Shakeri , Abdoulrasoul Ghasemi ,
Volume 10, Issue 37 (10-2019)
Abstract
Oil price wild fluctuations impact the economies of developing countries as well as those of developed ones. Focusing on OPEC’s political risks as a proxy of precautionary demand, this study aims to disentangle oil price factors using an SVAR approach for 1994Q1 to 2016Q4. We disentangled oil price shocks into political risks, supplies, global demand for industrial goods and other oil price shocks. Our results highlight that shocks originated from different sources affect oil prices differently in terms of both their lifetime and directions. Besides, it is revealed that the structure of oil market has changed due to the 2008 financial crisis, increased oil price fluctuations, changes in OPEC’s behaviour and accordingly its market power, and the advent of new shale oil technologies, thus affecting oil price sensitivities. Therefore, we found out that OPEC’s political risks affected oil markets way more significantly in 2008-2016.
Alireza Kazerouni, Hosein Asgharpour, Ali Aghamohamadi, Elham Zokaei Alamdari,
Volume 10, Issue 37 (10-2019)
Abstract
This study examines the relationship between per capita income and per capita dioxide emissions in the form of a new definition of the Environmental Kuznets Curve, to investigate how corruption influences the income level at the turning point of the relationship between per capita dioxide emissions and income, in developed and developing countries the period 1994-2013 through the use of a panel data model. Our results support the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis for developed countries and existence of an U-shaped relation for developing countries. We find evidence that the higher the country's degree of corruption, the higher the per capita income at the turning point for developed countries and the lower the per capita income at the turning point for developing countries than when corruption is not accounted for. Also, the share of renewable energy in both groups of countries has a negative and significant effect on per capita dioxide emissions, but the positive effect of urbanization rate in developed countries is significant and in developing countries is not.
Mohammad Sayadi, Nasim Karimi,
Volume 10, Issue 38 (12-2019)
Abstract
The main objective of this study is modeling the dependency structure between the returns of oil markets, exchange rate and stocks of chemical products in Iran. For this purpose, the theory of Vine Copula functions is used to investigate the dependency structure. In addition to consider a linear relationship between financial markets in Iran, the nonlinear dependency structure of these markets is also estimated, and their dependence on their upper or lower tails is determined. The study period includes daily data (5 working days) from December 2008 to July 2017. Modeling of marginal distributions of GJR-GARCH models has been used. Then, using the Copula-GARCH approach, the structure of dependency between returns and the calculating of the Value at Risk (VaR) of crude oil, exchange rate and stock of the chemical product group returns have been investigated. Finally, the required back-test is performed on the basis of the loss function. The study findings show that both pairs of modeling returns are related to the same upper and lower tails. In addition, there is a same structural dependency on the distribution of the vine copula between the indexes of chemical products and the nominal exchange rate on the condition of the price of crude oil, which indicates the spillover between markets. Due to that spillover effect is the main source of financial risk, the structural dependence on the basis of vine copula functions makes accurate and reliable calculation of portfolio risk based on the VaR criterion.
Ali Kiani, Karim Eslamloueyan, Phd Roohollah Shahnazi, Parviz Rostamzadeh,
Volume 10, Issue 38 (12-2019)
Abstract
In recent years, some research has focused on the importance of the origin of an oil shock for macroeconomic dynamics in both oil-exporting and importing countries. The existing literature lacks a proper open Stochastic Dynamic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework to investigate the effect of the origins of oil shocks on macro variables in a two-country model consisting of an oil-exporting county and an oil-importing country. To this end, we develop and solve a new Keynesian DSGE model to show how the different oil shocks originating from oil supply or oil demand, might have diverse impacts on key macroeconomic variables in oil-exporting and importing counties. For the case study, we use data from Iran as an example of an oil-exporting country that trades with the rest of the world. Our DSGE model is estimated by using the Bayesian method for the period 1986:1-2017:4. The result shows that an oil shock originated from the shortage of oil supply (an exogenous decrease in Iran's oil production) decreases total production, non-oil trade, employment, inflation and consumption in this oil-exporting country. While a negative oil supply shock increases production costs and reduces production and consumption in Iran. However, an oil shock originated from an increase in the demand for oil raises output, non-oil trade, employment, consumption, and inflation in Iran as an oil-exporting country while a demand-side oil shock boosts production and increases inflation in this country.
Seyed Parviz Jalili Kamju, Ramin Khochiani,
Volume 11, Issue 39 (3-2020)
Abstract
Solving the Water conflict and optimal allocation of common water resources are the most important service of cooperative game theory to water economics. Zayandehrud basin is the most important disputed basin in several neighboring provinces in the first class basin of Iran's central plateau. The purpose of this research is to use the game theory with application of Bankruptcy approach (conflicting claims) in order to optimally allocate surface and underground water resources in the Zayandehrud basin, with regard to Zayandehrud need(tourism sector demand), water transfer to Yazd and Kashan, Gavkhoni wetland water use and demand of three sectors: drinking, mining, and agriculture. In order to estimate the river natural water right (tourism sector demand), the Montana method (tenant) was used under three different scenarios: weak, acceptable and optimal tenant during the period 1963-2017, which was 77.7, 130.5, and 466.5 m3 respectively yearly estimated. The conflicting claims theory in various scenarios for the river water right (tourism sector) showed that in all three proposed scenarios based on five different bankruptcy theory rules, Proportional, Constrained Equal Wards, Constrained Equal Losses, Talmud, Random Arrival, CEA rule was the most desirable method for 5 sectors (except agriculture). In order to choose a more equitable method, the Gini coefficient and the Lorenz curve were used which indicated that CEA rule has less inequality than other rules. Thus, regard to the increasing demand gap in the Zayandehrud Basin, water allocation based on the criteria of bankruptcy theory is proposed.
