Journal of Economic Modeling Research

The impacts of the tourism industry on economic growth can be divided into two categories: direct and indirect (spillover) effects. In the field of tourism, direct impacts have been the subject of many studies but the analysis of spillover effects, particularly the effects from tourism infrastructure development, have received less attention. This study, with an analytical approach and along with examining the quantitative methods and analysis of the spillover effects of various variables affecting the development of the tourism industry, has investigated these impacts for each the variables and in each province. For this purpose, it has used spatial econometric models. The results confirmed the existence of spatial fixed effects and was applied Spatial Durbin Model (based on Lagrange coefficient test). The results show a positive and significant impact of transport infrastructure variables (road, rail, air) and travel agencies on the growth of value added in the tourism industry. Investigation of the spillover effects of infrastructure variables on growth of value added has shown that, except for Accommodation services, other tourism infrastructure variables have negative spillover effects for neighboring provinces, and also have positive spillover effects for other (non-neighbor) provinces. The negative spillover effects on the tourism growth of the neighbor provinces are due to competition impact and relative stability in the number of domestic tourists, and the positive spillover effects on non-neighbor provinces are due to factors such as the development of multi-purpose trips and increased market access.

This study seeks to examine the impact of market shocks and economic sanctions on production and value added in the industrial sector, one of the most important sectors of the economy, during period of recession and boom. For this purpose, we examine the effect of oil shocks, currency fluctuations and economic sanctions on the added value of the industrial sector during the recession and boom period, from 1974 to 2016. The results of Markov model estimation imply that the effects of shocks are asymmetric. Positive oil shocks and currency fluctuations have positive effect on value added industrial sector during the boom period and have negative effect during the recession. The results show that if Iran's economy is booming at time t, market shocks and economic sanctions will remain in the same position with a probability of 0.3864%, and if the Iranian economy If t + 1 is in a recession, it is likely to remain at 0.6791% at t + 1. While according to results of estimating the number of years in each diet, the number of prosperity years was lower than the recession period (27 recession periods vs. 14 prosperity periods) and the rate of durability was more during the recession. Another interesting point is that Inventory of capital, inflation of production, consumption of private sector and employment during the recession had a negative relationship with the added value of industry.So, about Iran economy, it seems that establishing an appropriate theoretical relationship between these important variables influenced more by fundamental changes in Political and economic conditions than government economic policies. Thus, although the role of macroeconomic policies, including monetary and fiscal policies, is essential for the growth of value added production but also providing economic security and a secure environment for investment, expansion and diversifying financial markets and institutions, and More productive engagement with the world and major trading partners, moving towards an open economy and the use of foreign investment and developing capital market regulations with the aim of transparency and stability to increase savings and investment is essential and could provide the basis for Increasing production in the manufacturing sector.

The relationship between external debt and economic growth is one of the important issues in macroeconomics literature and has been considered in empirical studies. So, in this paper the long-run relationship among external government debt and economic growth in 58 selected developing countries for 1985-2018 by applying a pool mean group method which is suggested by Pesaran & Smith. The main empirical results showed that there is a long-run relationship between external debt and economic growth. Also, increase in growth in selected countries in addition to the influence of produce factors, labor, capital stock and monetary policy, influence of public debt. Also, capital stock, open economic, financial balance and saving variables has positive effect and population growth and Government revenue has negative effect on economic growth.

This study investigates the relation between bounced checks and economic growth through the banking credit risk channel by estimation of a simultaneous equation system with panel data for 31 Iranian provinces covers the years from 2011 to 2015. For this purpose, after identifying determinants of the bounced checks, the relations of this variable with the non-performing loans, banking loans and economic growth are evaluated. The results confirm the positive relationship between the bounced checks to GDP ratio and the prices index, whereas the impacts of output deviation from trend and the index of enforcement of laws on the bounced checks are negative. In times of stagflation, with the decreasing possibility of defaults, the bounced checks tend to grow. Also, with the development of legal and judicial system in the country with a view to boosting institutional and governance quality, the number of bounced checks decreases on the scale of economic activities. On the other hand, the number of bounced checks after fixing the control variables will lead to an increase of non-performing loans and the bank credit risk. Meanwhile the impact of bank loans on economic growth through the productivity channel is meaningful and positive. Therefore, in the Iranian economy the increase of bounced checks through the channel of bank loaning power will have a negative influence on economic growth.

Many governments face a trade-off between health and economy during the coronavirus pandemic. Social distancing and lockdown caused decline in gross domestic product of coronavirus affected countries. In this study, by using the input-output table of 2011, the hypothetical extraction method is used to extract 10 selected economic activities hypothetically from economic system and examine the direct and indirect effect of this extraction on Iran’s gross output. Results show that extraction of passenger transport, aviculture and clothing sectors result in the greatest reductions in gross domestic product. Furthermore, extraction of accommodation services, travel agency and tour operator activities and foodservice industry as representative of the tourism sector is able to reduce total output by almost one percent. Considering these ten selected sectors, 6.5 percent of Iran’s total economic output would be impacted by coronavirus outbreak.

Due to the undesirable phenomenon of graduate unemployment and its negative effects, Addressing the issue of how to major choice is of particular importance. The main question of the research is whether the existing signals of choosing a field have been effective in guiding people in accordance with the needs of the labor market? The method of this research is descriptive-analytical; It has been a combination of documentary studies, qualitative statistical analysis (descriptive statistics) and analytical statistics (cross-sectional econometrics). The findings of this study, which was conducted using the data of the years (2006-2018) and controlled by the province and the type of university, show in major choice of volunteers, no attention is paid to the unemployment rate of that field. The non-significance of the unemployment rate coefficient in the above model confirms the hypothesis that the unemployment rate of the field (main independent variable) does not explain the registration rate in that field (dependent variable), Therefore, the unemployment rate of the field in any of the six fields, in any type of universities and in any of the provinces, has no significant effect on the rate of major choice. According to the theoretical and experimental background of research in many other countries, there is a problem and weakness and they have followed solutions for it.

The status of income distribution is economically important because other macroeconomic variables, especially savings rates, affect the amount of investment and aggregate demand in different markets, and are politically a measure of government efficiency in attracting voters. The present study aims to investigate the macroeconomic variables affecting inequality in income distribution in the two groups of middle-income countries and high-income countries based on the International Monetary Fund classification. For this purpose, the annual data of economic complexity, scientific productivity, political risk, economic risk, and financial risk and the period 2019-2000 and the panel method have been used. The results show that in high-income countries, increasing economic complexity and scientific productivity reduces income inequality, while in middle-income countries, increasing scientific productivity reduces income inequality, but increasing economic complexity increases income inequality. Reducing political risk in both groups reduces income inequality; While reducing financial risk reduces income inequality in high-income countries, it increases income inequality in middle-income countries. The impact of economic risk on income inequality is also negligible in high-income countries, while in middle-income countries the impact of economic risk on income inequality is very strong, and reducing economic risk in this group of countries strongly reduces income inequality.

Development of the entrepreneurship space by helping to nurture entrepreneurs and increase the attitudes, abilities and aspirstions for entrepreneurship has a positive effect on the economic and social growth of societies. Because entrepreneurship is a source of innovation, employment, and economic growth and development. Therefore, determine the factors affecting of the entrepreneurship space is important in the economics and management disciplines. In this regard, the present study attempted to investigate the interactive impact of risk institution including political, economic and financial risks and abundance of natural resources on entrepreneurship space in resource-rich selected countries during the period 2014-2018. In order to achieve this goal, the research model was estimated using panel data approach and generalized moment method in two groups of countries. The results showed that the individual impact of political, economic and financial risks and the abundance of natural resources on the entrepreneurship space in the selected countries were negative and significant. Also, the interactive impact of political, economic and financial risks with the abundance of natural resources on the entrepreneurship space in the selected countries is negative and significant. However, the estimated coefficient of their interactive impact is larger than the estimated coefficient of their individual impact. Also, the impact of control variables gender gap and unemployment rate on the entrepreneurship space is negative and significant, and the impact of intellectual property rights on the entrepreneurship space is positive and significant.

Price, as an element of marketing, plays an essential role in the decision-making of tourists as well as the income of tourism activists. Therefore, it is essential to identify the components and factors affecting the pricing process. The outbreak of COVID-19 in Iran has drawn the attention of tourism businesses to the necessity of the pricing process and updating the price of tourism products. We examined the pricing components of tourism products by qualitative-quantitative approach and using fuzzy cognitive mapping.  We identified 29 pricing factors of tourism products using the opinion of 9 tourism experts. In the next step, 18 factors were selected in 4 dimensions using semi-structured interviews. Finally, we identified the most important components of tourism products’ pricing during the COVID-19 outbreak. The findings indicate that four components of cost coverage and loss prevention, purchasing power, survival in the tourism market, and the extent of tourist demand are more important than other components during the coronavirus outbreak.

Higher Education (HE) in Iran have been subject to a major expansion and massification in the recent years, in a way that number of students approximately tripled from 2006 to 2016. This would have possibly affected labor market or unemployment rate of the country. Considering both provincial and national level, this study investigates the relationship between HE expansion and unemployment rate in the recent era (2006-2018) empirically. In this regard, number of assignments, students, and the state budget allocated to HE institutions are taken as variables indicating HE expansion so that their relationship with unemployment rate can be explored. The empirical methodology of this study in national level is to consider trends and calculating correlations for different lags. In provincial level, Granger causality and dynamic panel data regression with systemic GMM estimators are utilized as methods of the analysis. The results show a positive significant correlation exists between the state budget of HE and unemployment rate. Moreover, in provincial level, number of students and assignments Granger cause unemployment in some lags. Dynamic panel data model with numerous specifications also approve a positive significant relationship between HE expansion in provinces and their unemployment rate, however, the effect is not the same considering different models, especially for number of students.

The corona pandemic is a phenomenon that has caused a crisis in the world due to its rapid spread and unstoppable nature. This crisis, however, seems to have a purely medical and health-related nature. But it is a multidimensional phenomenon which effects and consequences can be studied and evaluated in various fields.The purpose of this study is to propose an appropriate approach in implementing the choice experiment method from the perspective of heterogeneity expressed in individuals’ preferences. In the present study, using the choice experiment method, the factors influencing the selection of individuals from the options of the selection sets (including mental illness, unemployment, change in social activities, family problems, concerns about social discriminations) have been identified. Because in choice experiment some respondents may not consider all the features or levels provided; This causes heterogeneity in the behavior of respondents. To investigate the effect of this heterogeneity on the selection process of different individuals in the sample population (Tehran), in this study, a new approach of endogenous attribute attendance in the logit model was used. The information required for the research was obtained by completing 384 questionnaires completely randomly by different people in 2021. The results of estimating the two logit models in terms of endogenous attribute attendance (EAA) and conditional logit indicate that the average tendency to Payment for features defined in the model (EAA) is higher than the conditional logit model.

Why are some countries rich and others poor? And do poor countries converge toward rich countries in terms of economic performance? There are questions that have occupied the minds of economists for a long time, and the answers to these questions are the basis of the formation of economic growth patterns. During the development of developing countries, it is discussed whether institutional and structural homogeneity is a prerequisite for income convergence and performance of developing countries. Our research deals with institutional analysis in developing countries. Therefore, in this research, the formation of institutional and income convergence clusters in developing countries during the period of 2002-2020 has been investigated using the log t test of Phillips and Soule (2007, 2009). The results show that the convergence of institutional indicators among developing countries is rejected. However, the results of the cluster method provide strong evidence of the existence of converging clusters among developing countries. Also, in this study, the clustering of the per capita income of the studied countries has been done, which shows similar results to institutional clustering. which indicates that institutional clusters may be effective in forming income clusters.

In this paper, in order to determine the optimal minimum wage policy in Iran, in the framework of the new Keynesian theory, a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model was estimated for a small and open oil-exporting economy, according to the structure of Iran's economy in the time range of 1190 to 2019. In this model, the nominal rigidity and work habits in the supply and demand sectors are considered, and in order to simulation the economic conditions of the country, meanwhile classify the labor market in two parts; the skilled  (whose maximizes its wage based on its utility) and  unskilled labor, the model has  considered to four parts. The main purpose of this study is to answer the question of determining and adjusting the annual minimum wage based on which of the indicators of inflation, the growth of the total wage and a combination of inflation indicators and productivity of production factors, in a situation where the economy is exposed to markup of wages and prices shocks, supply and the demand of the economy and monetary and financial policies, was optimal and it causes the least negative fluctuation (deviation) on macroeconomic variables including inflation, employment, production, consumption and investment. Based on this study, three scenarios were designed and the effect of minimum wage on economic variables was analyzed. The results of the simulation and estimation of this model, which indicate the matching of the moments of the simulated data with the real world data and based on calibration in all three scenarios, it shows that the selection sum of inflation growth  and the productivity indexes to adjust the minimum wage policy, although it has cyclical effects on inflation, in comparison to other scenarios, it has the least negative deviation on economic variables and can be used as an optimal indicator for choosing the minimum wage in the Supreme Labor Council of the country.