Ebrahim Nasiroleslami, Ezatollah Abbasian,
Volume 10, Issue 36 (6-2019)
Abstract
The existence of a stable source of income for the government is crucial for the financing of current and development expenditures. The major revenues of the government in Iran are derived from two sources of tax and oil revenues. Given that much of the oil revenue fluctuations are outside the control of domestic policymakers, it is better to focus on tax revenues in order to earn relatively stable revenues. However, tax revenues are also affected by cycles of boom and recession, and in terms of economic downturns, it is also difficult to earn money from this source. Thus, the solution for this problem is that the total tax revenue of the country is considered as a portfolio of income and applied to the methods of the financial economics to optimize it, in this way, an optimal combination Tax will be specified. Accordingly, in this study, by collecting information on different government revenues during the period of 1350-1396 and using the Markovitz model from two approaches to minimize risk and maximize returns, the optimal contribution of different tax bases for Iran has been calculated. The results show that the current share of the tax revenue base of the country is different from the optimal share.
Hojjat Izadkhasti, Ali Akbar Arab Mazar, Amin Jalali,
Volume 10, Issue 37 (10-2019)
Abstract
Speculative demand in the land and housing market has a fundamental role in raising the price of land and housing and causing a diversion and invasion of the housing sector with the aim of profit. The government, by imposing a tax on rent of land and housing return, seeks to control speculation, allocate the land resources and urban housing and make money to build the urban infrastructure. In this study, optimal taxation on the return of housing capital is analyzed in the framework of a dynamic optimization model in Iran. Then, the calibration and sensitivity analysis of the macro variables was done to change the tax rate on housing capital return. Finally, using the GAMS software, the optimal path of macro variables was simulated in different scenarios during the period (2016-2040). In steady state, the results of the sensitivity analysis of macro variables indicate that by increasing the tax rate on the return of housing capital from zero to 25%, and decreasing the tax rate on the return of business capital from 25% to zero, increased the level of business capital per capita, production per capita and consumption per capita by 50.62%, 13.47% and 25.27% respectively, and decreased the level of housing capital per capita by 31.5%. Also, the results of the simulation indicate that the imposing tax on the return of housing capital at a rate of 4% compared to the current state of the economy, has led to upward the optimal path of business capital per capita, production per capita and business capital per capita and gone down housing capital in the long run during the transition period.
Akbar Hassanpoor, Mohsen Khezri,
Volume 10, Issue 38 (12-2019)
Abstract
Utilities and services can be divided into two types of public and private goods in terms of the nature of pricing. Urban bus services are pure private goods that have positive externality. The Mohering effect is one of the most important externality of bus services, which in fact justifies the philosophy and nature of subsidies by the municipality and the government. In this study, monetary calculation models of Mohering effect was explained and an optimal pricing model is provided for urban bus services. The results show that the optimal pricing model differs sharply from the Tehran Municipality bus ticket pricing policy.The empirical estimation of the model also shows the large difference between the current prices and the subsidy payment with the optimal values extracted from the proposed model.
Shahryar Zaroki, Mastaneh Yadolahi Otaghsara, Arman Yousefi Barfurushi,
Volume 11, Issue 42 (12-2020)
Abstract
The lack of social security supports and labor market laws in informal employment has strengthened the expectation that poverty in a family in which the head of the household chooses informal employment is greater than in a family in which the head of the household works in the formal sector. Hence, this study attempts to investigate the effect of informal employment with other factors affecting household’s poverty. To this aim, by using the microdata plan of costs and incomes of urban and rural households in 2018, first, the poverty line was calculated based on 66% of the average annual household expenditures by provincial division for urban and rural areas; and poor households were identified as well. Then, according to the presented index in this study, heads of households' employment types were formally and informally determined. In the primary data processing, a comparison between households with employed heads showed that the highest poverty rates were for households whose heads work in informal employment. Next, the estimation of the research model with the dependent variable limited to the basis of pseudo-panel data and random effects in logistic regression was performed in a separate format for 13248 urban households and 13115 rural households in 31 provinces. The results showed that the informal employment of the head of the households has a direct effect on the possibility of household poverty and the rate of influence in urban areas is higher than in rural areas. Furthermore, the head of the household's education, age, and gender have an indirect effect; and the square number of age and size of the household variables have a direct effect on the probability of household poverty. In such a way that the desired effect of education and age, and the undesired effect of the household dimension on the probability of household poverty in urban areas is greater than in rural areas.
Mrs Narges Ghasemian, Proffesor Hossein Raghfar, Engineer Faramarz Ekhteraei,
Volume 12, Issue 43 (3-2021)
Abstract
Drugs as a strategic and subsidized commodity and an urgent need for patients have been constantly of particular importance, specially, in the health-care system of a society. On the other hand, one of the parameters concerning the assessment of the family welfare is the amount spent for satisfaction of divergent needs. The more a family spends on essential necessities such as food, housing, clothing and higher education, the less is expected to be devoted to health care. Concerning drugs, the demand for different drugs may vary depending on the patients' attitudes, the type of illnesses and their income elasticity. The objective of the present research is to investigate the demand for orphan drugs for refractory diseases regarding various income groups in Iran applying Agent-based Models (ABMs). In this research, the behavior dynamics of the orphan drugs applicants and the diversity of their demands in miscellaneous price scenarios resulting from inflation and fluctuations in the exchange rate have been scrutinized in accordance with ABM. To this end, one thousand family applicants for orphan drugs, extracted from Iran's statistics center, were categorized in five different income ventiles. Their reactions towards the increase of the price of the aforementioned drugs are predicted based on Net Logo simulation software. The results indicate that the average of price elasticity of demand for generic and branded drugs has been -0.39 and -0.05 percent, respectively; similarly, the demand for these two drug groups has been decreased by the same amount. In the lowest income ventile as the price of generic and branded orphan drugs deceases, for the lowest income ventile families, the allocated expenses for these drugs has been decreased by 3.3 percent and 31.85 percent, respectively. The main reason for the aforementioned problem is assigned to the low budget of the patients' family and its allocation to essential necessities of life such as food and housing. The severity of the cost reduction in branded drugs is due to the fact that it can be replaced by generic drugs.
Yadollah Dadgar, Hojat Eizadkhsti, Seyed Mohammad Seyedi,
Volume 12, Issue 44 (7-2021)
Abstract
The change of theoretical base in the area of welfare economy and due to economic evolution along time, in recent decades happiness has been considered as an important index for measuring welfare in individual and social levels along with other initial proxies such as wealth, consumption, gross domestic production. This particularly has attracted many economists attention such that they investigate the impact of economic variables on happiness. Government is an unclear and effective factor over nations happiness. Because government functions in expanding happiness through two channels. Direct channel and indirect channel. Therefore, the impact of governance over happiness increase is significant. This study is using panel data for investigating the impact of governance over happiness. Six Kaufmann governance indices has been used for assessing 112 nations governance in time period of (2006-2019). These six indices have been divided into two sub-index technical quality and democratic quality and has been evaluated by three equations. Also the sample was divided in two groups and the impact of governance on happiness was studied carefully. Income variable along with two control variables government expenditures and misery index were added to the function. These study findings indicate that there is a positive relationship between increase in income, governance improvement and happiness expansion. The effectiveness of governance quality in parallel with increasing happiness is considerable to democracy quality. This result is confirmed in all poor and rich nations, and its impact on poor nations is more than the rich ones. Income has significant direct effect on expanding happiness. Income coefficients are positive in each 3 group and for the poor is greater than the rich. Two control variables government expenses and misery index in all countries have positive and negative relationship with happiness respectively. The existent relationship holds for rich nations, but the coefficient of government expenses for poor nations is negative. On this basis, it can be said that governments have a significant and undeniable role in promoting the level of happiness in society by improving the quality of governance and reducing the misery index in the economy. Also the significance of gross domestic production and economic growth should not be ignored.
Maryam Heidarian, Ali Falahati, Mohammad Sharif Karimi,
Volume 12, Issue 46 (12-2021)
Abstract
There is a situation that due to economic shocks and imbalances in structural budgets and its continuation leads to stress in governments in uncertainty conditions. Fiscal stress as a volatile situation in financing of local governments can exacerbate the inability of governments to meet short-term and long-term fiscal commitments and excessive dependence on the central government. So the positive and negative effects of stress are related to the actions and responses of central and local governments. It is essential that policymakers in central and local governments pay attention to accurate and timely signs of fiscal stress for respond to stresses effects. In this study, we tried to clarify the fiscal situation in 31 provinces of Iran by calculating the local fiscal stress index from variables of fiscal structure and budget of each province and then estimate the threshold and spatial effects of the index through Panel Smooth Transition Regression method on economic growth and employment over the period 2005-2017. The results show that border provinces have the highest stress among other provinces, and provinces located in the center or near the capital have less stress. These results indicate the high centralism that exists in the provinces of Iran and has hindered the fiscal independence of local governments so that they can control and regulate their own revenues and expenditures, and in this case, they suffer less fiscal pressure and stress.
Abbas Khandan,
Volume 12, Issue 46 (12-2021)
Abstract
Collective pension funds have many advantages including larger risk pool and the possibility of interpersonal and intergenerational risk sharing, as well as economies of scale and lower administrative costs. For decades, however, this has been achieved through mandatory participation, while this traditional and mandatory form of contribution is no longer commensurate with the future of work. In this regard, many countries have implemented a combinatorial policy in the form of auto-enrolment pensions and then the granting of opting out authority. However, the sustainability of these schemes will depend on people's motivation to participate or leave. This article tries to examine the motivations of individuals to exit the Iran Social Security Organization (ISSO) pension fund, assuming that the insureds are given the opportunity to opt out once in a certain time. For this purpose, the method of option pricing is used. Findings show that insureds will accept even a 60 percent deficit in fund’s long-term liabilities for the only reason to take advantage of investment income of their predecessors funds or interpersonal and intergenerational risk sharing. It was also observed that an increase in the funding ratio, lower liabilities, a rise in assets and a higher rate of return on investments encourage participation and reduce the incentive to exit. A decline in accrual rate, increase in the contribution rate, higher retirement age, accelerating the adjustment rate of fund deficit due to their detrimental effect on the insureds have a direct negative effect on the incentive to participate and stimulate withdrawal. It should be noted, however, that these factors will also reduce liabilities and increase the funding ratio, thereby contributing to the sustainability of the plan may ultimately reduce the exit incentives.
Yasin Ghasemi, Abbas Khandan, Narges Akbarpour-Roshan,
Volume 13, Issue 47 (5-2022)
Abstract
The pension coverage of the Iranian Social Security Organization for self-employed workers is offered at three contribution rates of 12, 14 and 18 percent, but looking at the statistics shows that the demand for these types of insurances is low. This research investigates the characteristics of these insured groups by using data mining and applying two machine learning algorithms, decision tree and random forest, and predicts their behavior by providing a classification model. This will help the Social Security Organization to improve customer relationship management. For this purpose, the information of 1286174 insured persons of self-employed in 2020 was used, which includes the characteristics of age, gender, average monthly income, the years of service, and the type of self-employed pension scheme. The obtained results show that women mainly apply for the scheme with 12 percent contribution, while men tend to be covered by schemes with contribution rates of 14 and 18 percent due to the burden of supporting the family. Also, for men, the demand for schemes of 14 and 18 percent increases with the increase of age, income and years of service, but there are no such trends for women. According to the obtained results, years of service and then gender are decisive in choosing the type of pension scheme in such a way that according to the prediction of the model, people with less than 4.5 years of service are known as definite applicants for 12 percent self-employed pension scheme.
Amirali Farhang, Majid Afsharirad, Ali Mohammadpour,
Volume 13, Issue 47 (5-2022)
Abstract
The main objective of this article is to investigate the effect of the tax burden and corruption perceptions index, as well as the interactive effect of these two variables on the total factors of productivity, using the panel data of 18 countries in the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) during 2002 - 2020 and Pooled Mean Group (PMG) method. The results of the study showed that increasing the tax burden without the corruption perceptions index reduces the productivity of the production factors in both the short and long term, While the increase of the corruption perceptions index and the joint effects of the corruption perception index and the tax burden have a positive and significant effect on the productivity of all production factors. The positive interaction effect of the tax burden and the corruption perceptions index on the productivity of the total production factors indicates that the increase in the corruption perception index reduces the negative effect of the tax burden on the productivity of the total production factors. An increase of one unit of the tax burden has had a negative and significant impact of 0.027 and 0.019 units on the productivity of all production factors in the short and long term, respectively, While the increase of the corruption perception index and the interactive effects of the corruption perceptions index and the tax burden are 0.022, 0.041 a and in the long term, 0.048 and 0.069 units have had a positive and significant effect on it.
Dr. Shahryar Zaroki, Dr. Mani Motameni, Mis. Niloofar Gorgani Firoozjah,
Volume 13, Issue 48 (9-2022)
Abstract
The aim of this study was to analyze the effect of commodity group expenditures on the probability of urban and rural household poverty in Iran. First, using household expenditure-income data in 1399, the poverty line was calculated based on the method of 66% of the average per capita expenditure, which is higher than urban households than rural households. In the following, the research model is limited by a dependent variable and is estimated based on pseudo-panel data in logistic regression by random effects method. The results showed that the expenditures of the communication group have the greatest impact on the probability of household poverty in urban and rural areas and the impact of this group of goods in urban areas is greater than rural areas. In contrast, hotel and restaurant costs in urban areas have a greater positive effect on reducing the likelihood of household poverty than in rural areas. But the cost of durable goods in urban areas, transportation in rural areas, and the cost of recreation and cultural affairs do not have a significant effect on the likelihood of household poverty. There is also no significant difference between the impact of furniture and household appliances, clothing and footwear and health care in urban and rural areas. Between social characteristics of the household, variables of gender and education have a negative effect on the probability of poverty and variables of household dimension and marital status have a direct effect on the probability of poverty of urban households, but these variables have no significant effect on the probability of poverty of rural households.
Dr. Mohammad Hassanzadeh, Mrs Mina Barghinejad,
Volume 13, Issue 48 (9-2022)
Abstract
Government investment and public debt are two important tools of financial policy affecting macroeconomic performance, which can be considered as one of the few remaining policy instruments to support growth. In the current study, the panel smooth transition regression model (PSTR) has been used to identify the threshold levels of government investment and public debt in 23 oil exporting countries during 2000 to 2021. Considering investment and public debt in separate models as transmission variables, the estimated results indicate the existence of a two-regime non-linear relationship. The estimation results show that in this group of countries, the positive effects of government investment on economic growth increase with the increase in the level of investment. During the first regime, public debt has a negative effect on economic growth. If public debt surpasses the threshold level, its negative impact on economic growth decreases.
Mrs Roghayeh Soltani, Dr Roya Seifipour, Dr Mir Hossein Mousavi, Dr Saman Ziaee,
Volume 13, Issue 49 (12-2022)
Abstract
Applying a favorable tax system has important conditions such as justice and efficiency, therefore, consumption tax and income tax will comply with the principles of benefit and ability to pay. In this regard, value added tax is known as the most important innovation of the 20th century in terms of tax collection on consumption. Since increasing government revenue is one of the important goals of imposing this type of tax, the government has tried to determine the rate of this type of tax effectively and efficiently. Disproportionate increase in value added tax rates can have negative social effects on inflation, economic growth, income distribution, and general well-being in society. It may also have disruptive effects on other variables and sectors of Iran's economy. To manage the rate increase, one approach is to simulate and examine its consequences and effects on macroeconomic variables in the form of a multi-regional calculable general equilibrium model (MRCGE). Three different scenarios were applied and examined to simulate the shock effects of the increase in the value-added tax rate (12% , 15% , and 20 %) on four macro variables of Iran's economy: inflation, gross domestic product, consumption, and investment. The simulations were conducted at the country level using a multi-regional calculable general balance model, known as the ORANI-G Iran model, using the 2016 input-output table and regional accounts of the country. The results indicate that the effect of increasing the tax rate on value-added will increase inflation and investment and decrease GDP and consumption.
Leila Ahmadvand, , ,
Volume 13, Issue 50 (3-2023)
Abstract
Social security organization, as the largest active institution in the field of social security and insurance of the country, plays a critical role in the social, livelihood and economic situation, so that any kind of disturbance in the economic situation of that organization creates a crisis in the entire economic system. provides Since the fulfillment of the obligations of the organization to the society is based on the economic ability and the resources it has, it is necessary to make a detailed analysis of the factors affecting the resources of the organization and make policies accordingly. In this research, the effect of monetary and financial policies on the state of social security organization's resources has been investigated in two models. The time period of the research is between 1350 and 1399, and in order to analyze the data, the vector autoregression method with distributed intervals (ARDL) was used. The results of the research show that the real GDP, liquidity, interest rate, exchange rate, support ratio and the ratio of compulsory workers to the total insured have a positive and significant impact on the state of social security organization's resources. Also, the effect of the ratio of tax revenues to GDP on the organization's resources is negative. In this regard, in order to improve the situation of resources, it is suggested that, in addition to economic policies (such as no excessive growth of taxes, regulation of liquidity and interest rates at a level commensurate with the increase in economic growth), population policies and increasing youth The population should also be given enough attention.
Sahebe Mohamadian Mansour,
Volume 13, Issue 50 (3-2023)
Abstract
Despite the notion that economies with abundant natural resource revenues should have a lower default risk and thus a lower share of public debt, this notion is not generally valid. Natural resources in these countries serve as a guarantee to procure more public loans and binds them in debt trap. In this regard, this article examines the short-term and long-term effects of natural resource rent on public debt in developing countries during 2000-2020. For this purpose, first, a model was designed with the presence of basic variables affecting public debt, along with the variable of share of natural resource rent from GDP, and using panel co-integration tests, the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between the variables of the model was confirmed. Finally, the pooled mean group (PMG) approach was used to measure long-term and short-term relationships, and the e Dumitrescu-Hurlin test was used to determine causality. The findings of this research show that the effect of the share of natural resource rent from GDP on public debt is negative (and significant) in the short term and positive (and significant) in the long term. The results of the Dumitrescu-Hurlin test also indicate the existence of a two-way causal relationship between the abundance of natural resources and public debt. Based on this, it can be said that the abundance of natural resources in developing countries leads to higher public debts in the long term, and high levels of public debts also cause rapid extraction of natural resources in these countries.
